Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-383-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-383-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Nov 2014
Research article |
| 06 Nov 2014
Mechanism for potential strengthening of Atlantic overturning prior to collapse
D. Ehlert
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
now at: Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
A. Levermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
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Katja Matthes, Arne Biastoch, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, Torge Martin, Tim Brücher, Annika Drews, Dana Ehlert, Klaus Getzlaff, Fritz Krüger, Willi Rath, Markus Scheinert, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Tobias Bayr, Hauke Schmidt, and Wonsun Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2533–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, 2020
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A new Earth system model, the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI), is introduced, consisting of a high-top atmosphere, an ocean model, sea-ice and land surface model components. A unique feature of FOCI is the ability to explicitly resolve small-scale oceanic features, for example, the Agulhas Current and the Gulf Stream. It allows to study the evolution of the climate system on regional and seasonal to (multi)decadal scales and bridges the gap to coarse-resolution climate models.
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This study uses a global climate model to explore the extent to which sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the ocean is reversible if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) declines. It is found that sea level continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to the pre-industrial level for over thousand years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration.
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The Cryosphere, 18, 4011–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, 2024
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Here we show in simplified simulations that the (ir)reversibility of the retreat of instability-prone, Antarctica-type glaciers can strongly depend on the depth of the bed depression they rest on. If it is sufficiently deep, then the destabilized glacier does not recover from its collapsed state. Our results suggest that glaciers resting on a wide and deep bed depression, such as Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, are particularly susceptible to irreversible retreat.
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Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1137–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1137-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1137-2024, 2024
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Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
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Johannes Feldmann and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 327–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-327-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-327-2023, 2023
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Here we present a scaling relation that allows the comparison of the timescales of glaciers with geometric similarity. According to the relation, thicker and wider glaciers on a steeper bed slope have a much faster timescale than shallower, narrower glaciers on a flatter bed slope. The relation is supported by observations and simplified numerical simulations. We combine the scaling relation with a statistical analysis of the topography of 13 instability-prone Antarctic outlet glaciers.
Tanja Schlemm, Johannes Feldmann, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1979–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022, 2022
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Marine cliff instability, if it exists, could dominate Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise. It is likely to speed up with ice thickness and thus would accelerate in most parts of Antarctica. Here, we investigate a possible mechanism that might stop cliff instability through cloaking by ice mélange. It is only a first step, but it shows that embayment geometry is, in principle, able to stop marine cliff instability in most parts of West Antarctica.
Johannes Feldmann, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1927–1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022, 2022
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We use a numerical model to simulate the flow of a simplified, buttressed Antarctic-type outlet glacier with an attached ice shelf. We find that after a few years of perturbation such a glacier responds much stronger to melting under the ice-shelf shear margins than to melting in the central fast streaming part of the ice shelf. This study explains the underlying physical mechanism which might gain importance in the future if melt rates under the Antarctic ice shelves continue to increase.
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021
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All state-of-the-art global climate models that contributed to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a robust increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall that is even stronger than in the previous intercomparison (CMIP5). Furthermore, they show an increase in the year-to-year variability of this seasonal rainfall that crucially influences the livelihood of more than 1 billion people in India.
Tanja Schlemm and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 531–545, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-531-2021, 2021
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Ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica is often cloaked by a mélange of icebergs and sea ice. Here we provide a simple method to parametrize the resulting back stress on the ice flow for large-scale projection models.
Maria Zeitz, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3537–3550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020, 2020
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The flow of ice drives mass losses in the large ice sheets. Sea-level rise projections rely on ice-sheet models, solving the physics of ice flow and melt. Unfortunately the parameters in the physics of flow are uncertain. Here we show, in an idealized setup, that these uncertainties can double flow-driven mass losses within the possible range of parameters. It is possible that this uncertainty carries over to realistic sea-level rise projections.
Ronja Reese, Anders Levermann, Torsten Albrecht, Hélène Seroussi, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3097–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, 2020
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We compare 21st century projections of Antarctica's future sea-level contribution simulated with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model submitted to ISMIP6 with projections following the LARMIP-2 protocol based on the same model configuration. We find that (1) a preceding historic simulation increases mass loss by 5–50 % and that (2) the order of magnitude difference in the ice loss in our experiments following the two protocols can be explained by the translation of ocean forcing to sub-shelf melting.
Katja Matthes, Arne Biastoch, Sebastian Wahl, Jan Harlaß, Torge Martin, Tim Brücher, Annika Drews, Dana Ehlert, Klaus Getzlaff, Fritz Krüger, Willi Rath, Markus Scheinert, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Tobias Bayr, Hauke Schmidt, and Wonsun Park
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2533–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2533-2020, 2020
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A new Earth system model, the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI), is introduced, consisting of a high-top atmosphere, an ocean model, sea-ice and land surface model components. A unique feature of FOCI is the ability to explicitly resolve small-scale oceanic features, for example, the Agulhas Current and the Gulf Stream. It allows to study the evolution of the climate system on regional and seasonal to (multi)decadal scales and bridges the gap to coarse-resolution climate models.
Torsten Albrecht, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 633–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020, 2020
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A large ensemble of glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) was analyzed in which four relevant model parameters were systematically varied. These parameters were selected in a companion study and are associated with uncertainties in ice dynamics, climatic forcing, basal sliding and solid Earth deformation. For each ensemble member a statistical score is computed, which enables calibrating the model against both modern and geologic data.
Torsten Albrecht, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 599–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, 2020
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During the last glacial cycles the Antarctic Ice Sheet experienced alternating climatic conditions and varying sea-level history. In response, changes in ice sheet volume and ice-covered area occurred, implying feedbacks on the global sea level. We ran model simulations of the ice sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) over the last two glacial cycles to evaluate the model's sensitivity to different choices of boundary conditions and parameters to gain confidence for future projections.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Falko Ueckerdt, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Leonie Wenz, Gunnar Luderer, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 741–763, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, 2019
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We compute the global mean temperature increase at which the costs from climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation are minimal. This temperature is computed robustly around 2 degrees of global warming across a wide range of normative assumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion.
Tanja Schlemm and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 2475–2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2475-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2475-2019, 2019
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We provide a simple stress-based parameterization for cliff calving of ice sheets. According to the resulting increasing dependence of the calving rate on ice thickness, the parameterization might lead to a runaway ice loss in large parts of Greenland and Antarctica.
Anders Levermann and Johannes Feldmann
The Cryosphere, 13, 1621–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1621-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1621-2019, 2019
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Using scaling analysis we propose that the currently observed marine ice-sheet instability in the Amundsen Sea sector might be faster than all other potential instabilities in Antarctica.
Johannes Feldmann, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-109, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-109, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Dana Ehlert and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 197–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018, 2018
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This study uses a global climate model to explore the extent to which sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the ocean is reversible if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) declines. It is found that sea level continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to the pre-industrial level for over thousand years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration.
Johannes Feldmann and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 11, 1913–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1913-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1913-2017, 2017
Jacob Schewe and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 495–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017, 2017
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Monsoon systems have undergone abrupt changes in past climates, and theoretical considerations show that threshold behavior can follow from the internal dynamics of monsoons. So far, however, the possibility of abrupt changes has not been explored for modern monsoon systems. We analyze state-of-the-art climate model simulations and show that some models project abrupt changes in Sahel rainfall in response to a dynamic shift in the West African monsoon under 21st century climate change.
Jan Wohland, Torsten Albrecht, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-191, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
Anders Levermann and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 10, 1799–1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016, 2016
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In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass and has thereby contributed to global sea-level rise. Here we derive the basic equations for the melt elevation feedback that can lead to self-amplifying melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and ice sheets in general. The theory unifies the results of complex models when the feedback dominates the dynamics and it allows us to estimate the melt time of ice sheets from data in cases where ice dynamic loss can be neglected.
Johannes Feldmann and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 10, 1753–1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1753-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1753-2016, 2016
K. Frieler, M. Mengel, and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 203–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, 2016
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Sea level will continue to rise for centuries. We investigate the option of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto Antarctica. Due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than expected from pure advection. A millennium-scale storage of > 80 % of the additional ice requires a distance of > 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate ocean water to mitigate a sea-level rise of 3 mm yr−1 exceeds 7 % of current global primary energy supply.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
J. Feldmann and A. Levermann
The Cryosphere, 9, 631–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-631-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-631-2015, 2015
M. A. Martin, A. Levermann, and R. Winkelmann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-1705-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-1705-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn
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Numerical ice sheet modelling shows that idealized, step-function type ocean warming in the Weddell Sea, where the ice sheet is close to floatation, leads to more immediate ice discharge with a higher sensitivity to small warming levels than the same warming in the Amundsen Sea. While the cumulative ice loss in the Amundsen Sea Sector is of similar magnitude after five centuries of continued warming, ice loss increases at a slower pace and only for significantly higher warming levels.
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014
T. Albrecht and A. Levermann
The Cryosphere, 8, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-587-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-587-2014, 2014
C. F. Schleussner, J. Runge, J. Lehmann, and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 103–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014, 2014
A. Menon, A. Levermann, J. Schewe, J. Lehmann, and K. Frieler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 287–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-287-2013, 2013
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Records of past carbon isotopes exhibit oscillations. It is clear over very different time periods that oscillations of 400 kyr take place. Also, strong oscillations of approximately 8–9 Myr are seen over different time periods. While earlier modelling studies have been able to produce 400 kyr oscillations, none of them produced 8–9 Myr cycles. Here, we propose a simple model for the carbon cycle that is able to produce 8–9 Myr oscillations in the modelled carbon isotopes.
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Multi-instrument records with varying signal-to-noise ratios are becoming increasingly common as legacy sensors are upgraded, and data sets are modernized. Induced changes in higher-order statistics such as the autocorrelation and variance are not always well captured by cross-calibration schemes. Here we investigate using synthetic examples how strong resulting biases can be and how they can be avoided in order to make reliable statements about changes in the resilience of a system.
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
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The ExtremeX experiment was designed to unravel the contribution of processes leading to the occurrence of recent weather and climate extremes. Global climate simulations are carried out with three models. The results show that in constrained experiments, temperature anomalies during heatwaves are well represented, although climatological model biases remain. Further, a substantial contribution of both atmospheric circulation and soil moisture to heat extremes is identified.
Oliver López-Corona, Melanie Kolb, Elvia Ramírez-Carrillo, and Jon Lovett
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Lizz Ultee, Sloan Coats, and Jonathan Mackay
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, 2022
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Global climate models suggest that droughts could worsen over the coming century. In mountain basins with glaciers, glacial runoff can ease droughts, but glaciers are retreating worldwide. We analyzed how one measure of drought conditions changes when accounting for glacial runoff that changes over time. Surprisingly, we found that glacial runoff can continue to buffer drought throughout the 21st century in most cases, even as the total amount of runoff declines.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 879–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-879-2022, 2022
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Reconstruction and explanation of past climate evolution using proxy records is the essence of paleoclimatology. In this study, we use dimensional analysis of a dynamical model on orbital timescales to recognize theoretical limits of such forensic inquiries. Specifically, we demonstrate that major past events could have been produced by physically dissimilar processes making the task of paleo-record attribution to a particular phenomenon fundamentally difficult if not impossible.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Peter D. Nooteboom, Peter K. Bijl, Christian Kehl, Erik van Sebille, Martin Ziegler, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 357–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, 2022
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Having descended through the water column, microplankton in ocean sediments represents the ocean surface environment and is used as an archive of past and present surface oceanographic conditions. However, this microplankton is advected by turbulent ocean currents during its sinking journey. We use simulations of sinking particles to define ocean bottom provinces and detect these provinces in datasets of sedimentary microplankton, which has implications for palaeoclimate reconstructions.
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
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A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people, society, or the environment; major events in the study area include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. In the future, an increase in sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves, and phytoplankton blooms is expected, and a decrease in cold spells and severe ice winters is anticipated.
Jonathan F. Donges, Wolfgang Lucht, Sarah E. Cornell, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Steven J. Lade, and Maja Schlüter
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, 2021
Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1057–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, 2021
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The oceans are typically darker than land surfaces. Expanding oceans through sea-level rise may thus lead to a darker planet Earth, reflecting less sunlight. The additionally absorbed sunlight may heat planet Earth, leading to further sea-level rise. Here, we provide a rough estimate of the strength of this feedback: it turns out to be very weak, but clearly positive, thereby destabilizing the Earth system.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Charles D. Koven, Florent Brient, Ben B. B. Booth, Rosie A. Fisher, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 899–918, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, 2021
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Emergent constraints promise a pathway to the reduction in climate projection uncertainties by exploiting ensemble relationships between observable quantities and unknown climate response parameters. This study considers the robustness of these relationships in light of biases and common simplifications that may be present in the original ensemble of climate simulations. We propose a classification scheme for constraints and a number of practical case studies.
Ralf Weisse, Inga Dailidienė, Birgit Hünicke, Kimmo Kahma, Kristine Madsen, Anders Omstedt, Kevin Parnell, Tilo Schöne, Tarmo Soomere, Wenyan Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 871–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, 2021
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The study is part of the thematic Baltic Earth Assessment Reports – a series of review papers summarizing the knowledge around major Baltic Earth science topics. It concentrates on sea level dynamics and coastal erosion (its variability and change). Many of the driving processes are relevant in the Baltic Sea. Contributions vary over short distances and across timescales. Progress and research gaps are described in both understanding details in the region and in extending general concepts.
Eric D. Galbraith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 671–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-671-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-671-2021, 2021
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Scientific tradition has left a gap between the study of humans and the rest of the Earth system. Here, a holistic approach to the global human system is proposed, intended to provide seamless integration with natural sciences. At the core, this focuses on what humans are doing with their time, what the bio-physical outcomes of those activities are, and what the lived experience is. The quantitative approach can facilitate data analysis across scales and integrated human–Earth system modeling.
Shaun Lovejoy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 469–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-469-2021, 2021
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Monthly scale, seasonal-scale, and decadal-scale modeling of the atmosphere is possible using the principle of energy balance. Yet the scope of classical approaches is limited because they do not adequately deal with energy storage in the Earth system. We show that the introduction of a vertical coordinate implies that the storage has a huge memory. This memory can be used for macroweather (long-range) forecasts and climate projections.
Shaun Lovejoy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 489–511, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-489-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-489-2021, 2021
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Radiant energy is exchanged between the Earth's surface and outer space. Some of the local imbalances are stored in the subsurface, and some are transported horizontally. In Part 1 I showed how – in a horizontally homogeneous Earth – these classical approaches imply long-memory storage useful for seasonal forecasting and multidecadal projections. In this Part 2, I show how to apply these results to the heterogeneous real Earth.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, and Malte F. Stuecker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 121–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, 2021
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Changes in the Hadley and Walker cells cause major climate disruptions across our planet. What has been overlooked so far is the question of whether these two circulations can shift their positions in a synchronized manner. We here show the synchronized spatial shifts between Walker and Hadley cells and further highlight a novel aspect of how tropical sea surface temperature anomalies can couple these two circulations. The re-positioning has important implications for extratropical rainfall.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, 2021
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We demonstrate here that a single physical phenomenon, specifically, a naturally changing balance between intensities of temperature advection and diffusion in the viscous ice media, may influence the entire spectrum of the Pleistocene variability from orbital to millennial timescales.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1195–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, 2020
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With the development of computer capacities, simpler models like energy balance models have not disappeared, and a stronger emphasis has been given to the concept of a hierarchy of models. The global temperature is calculated by the radiation budget through the incoming energy from the Sun and the outgoing energy from the Earth. The argument that the temperature can be calculated by a simple radiation budget is revisited, and it is found that the effective heat capacity matters.
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 721–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, 2020
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Here, we assess the degree to which the idealized responses to transient forcing increase and step change forcing increase relate to warming under future scenarios. We find a possible explanation for the poor performance of transient metrics (relative to equilibrium response) as a metric of high-emission future warming in terms of their sensitivity to non-equilibrated initial conditions, and propose alternative metrics which better describe warming under high mitigation scenarios.
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 563–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020, 2020
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Levels of future temperature change are often used interchangeably with carbon budget allowances in climate policy, a relatively robust relationship on the timescale of this century. However, recent advances in understanding underline that continued warming after net-zero emissions have been achieved cannot be ruled out by observations of warming to date. We consider here how such behavior could be constrained and how policy can be framed in the context of these uncertainties.
Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Marc Wiedermann, Johannes A. Kassel, Tim Kittel, Jakob J. Kolb, Till Kolster, Finn Müller-Hansen, Ilona M. Otto, Kilian B. Zimmerer, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 395–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, 2020
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We present an open-source software framework for developing so-called
world–Earth modelsthat link physical, chemical and biological processes with social, economic and cultural processes to study the Earth system's future trajectories in the Anthropocene. Due to its modular structure, the software allows interdisciplinary studies of global change and sustainable development that combine stylized model components from Earth system science, climatology, economics, ecology and sociology.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 281–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, 2020
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Using the central theorem of dimensional analysis, the π theorem, we show that the relationship between the amplitude and duration of glacial cycles is governed by a property of scale invariance that does not depend on the physical nature of the underlying positive and negative feedbacks incorporated by the system. It thus turns out to be one of the most fundamental properties of the Pleistocene climate.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, 2020
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The ever-growing availability of data streams on different subsystems of the Earth brings unprecedented scientific opportunities. However, researching a data-rich world brings novel challenges. We present the concept of
Earth system data cubesto study the complex dynamics of multiple climate and ecosystem variables across space and time. Using a series of example studies, we highlight the potential of effectively considering the full multivariate nature of processes in the Earth system.
Christine Ramadhin and Chuixiang Yi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 13–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020, 2020
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Here we explore ancient climate transitions from warm periods to ice ages and from ice ages to warm periods of the last 400 000 years. The changeovers from warm to ice age conditions are slower than those from ice age to warm conditions. We propose the presence of strong negative sea–ice feedbacks may be responsible for slowing the transition from warm to full ice age conditions. By improving understanding of past abrupt changes, we may have improved knowledge of future system behavior.
M. Levent Kavvas, Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and James Polsinelli
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1-2020, 2020
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After deriving a fractional continuity equation, a previously-developed equation for water flux in porous media was combined with the Dupuit approximation to obtain an equation for groundwater motion in multi-fractional space in unconfined aquifers. As demonstrated in the numerical application, the orders of the fractional space and time derivatives modulate the speed of groundwater table evolution, slowing the process with the decrease in the powers of the fractional derivatives from 1.
Krishna-Pillai Sukumara-Pillai Krishnamohan, Govindasamy Bala, Long Cao, Lei Duan, and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 885–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-885-2019, 2019
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We find that sulfate aerosols are more effective in cooling the climate system when they reside higher in the stratosphere. We explain this sensitivity in terms of radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. Sulfate aerosols heat the stratospheric layers, causing an increase in stratospheric water vapor content and a reduction in high clouds. These changes are larger when aerosols are prescribed near the tropopause, offsetting part of the aerosol-induced negative radiative forcing/cooling.
Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Gabriele Messori, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, 2019
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We show how the complex dynamics of the jet stream at midlatitude can be described by a simple mathematical model. We match the properties of the model to those obtained by the jet data derived from observations.
Stefanie Talento, Lea Schneider, Johannes Werner, and Jürg Luterbacher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 347–364, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-347-2019, 2019
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Quantifying hydroclimate variability beyond the instrumental period is essential for putting fluctuations into long-term perspective and providing a validation for climate models. We evaluate, in a virtual setup, the potential for generating millennium-long summer precipitation reconstructions over south-eastern Asia.
We find that performing a real-world reconstruction with the current available proxy network is indeed feasible, as virtual-world reconstructions are skilful in most areas.
Lennert B. Stap, Peter Köhler, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, 2019
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Processes causing the same global-average radiative forcing might lead to different global temperature changes. We expand the theoretical framework by which we calculate paleoclimate sensitivity with an efficacy factor. Applying the revised approach to radiative forcing caused by CO2 and land ice albedo perturbations, inferred from data of the past 800 000 years, gives a new paleo-based estimate of climate sensitivity.
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Raquel Nieto, Marta Vázquez, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 121–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-121-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-121-2019, 2019
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Ice melting at the scale of inter-annual fluctuations against the trend is favoured by an increase in moisture transport in summer, autumn, and winter and a decrease in spring. On a daily basis extreme humidity transport increases the formation of ice in winter and decreases it in spring, summer, and autumn; in these three seasons it thus contributes to Arctic sea ice melting. These patterns differ sharply from that linked to decline, especially in summer when the opposite trend applies.
Iago Algarra, Jorge Eiras-Barca, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Raquel Nieto, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 107–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-107-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-107-2019, 2019
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We analyse moisture transport triggered by the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ), a maximum in wind speed fields located within the first kilometre of the US Great Plain's troposphere, through the innovative Eulerian Weather Research and Forecasting Model tracer tool. Much moisture associated with this low-level jet has been found in northern regions located in a vast extension of the continent, highlighting the key role played by the GPLLJ in North America's advective transport of moisture.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, 2018
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Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity.
Mark M. Dekker, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1243–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, 2018
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We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one system affects the background conditions of another system. Using bifurcation theory, various types of these events are considered and early warning indicators are suggested. An illustration of such an event is found in a conceptual model, coupling the North Atlantic Ocean with the equatorial Pacific. This demonstrates the possibility of events such as this in nature.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, Guido Cioni, Martin Claussen, Klaus Fraedrich, Marvin Heidkamp, Cathy Hohenegger, Diego Jimenez de la Cuesta, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Alexander Lemburg, Thorsten Mauritsen, Katharina Meraner, Niklas Röber, Hauke Schmidt, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, Alexander Winkler, Xiuhua Zhu, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1191–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, 2018
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Model experiments show that changing the sense of Earth's rotation has relatively little impact on the globally and zonally averaged energy budgets but leads to large shifts in continental climates and patterns of precipitation. The retrograde world is greener as the desert area shrinks. Deep water formation shifts from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific with subsequent changes in ocean overturning. Over large areas of the Indian Ocean, cyanobacteria dominate over bulk phytoplankton.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1127–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, 2018
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Turbulent fluxes represent an efficient way to transport heat and moisture from the surface into the atmosphere. Due to their inherently highly complex nature, they are commonly described by semiempirical relationships. What we show here is that these fluxes can also be predicted by viewing them as the outcome of a heat engine that operates between the warm surface and the cooler atmosphere and that works at its limit.
Marc Schleiss
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-955-2018, 2018
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The present study aims at explaining how intermittency (i.e., the alternation of dry and rainy periods) affects the rate at which precipitation extremes increase with temperature. Using high-resolution rainfall data from 99 stations in the United States, we show that at scales beyond a few hours, intermittency causes rainfall extremes to deviate substantially from Clausius–Clapeyron. A new model is proposed to better represent and predict these changes across scales.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje Berntsen, Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 879–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, 2018
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A key question in climate science is how the global mean surface temperature responds to changes in greenhouse gases. This dependency is quantified by the climate sensitivity, which is determined by the complex feedbacks in the climate system. In this study observations of past climate change are used to estimate this sensitivity. Our estimate is consistent with values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by complex climate models but sensitive to the use of uncertain input data.
Dieter Gerten, Martin Schönfeld, and Bernhard Schauberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 849–863, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-849-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-849-2018, 2018
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Cultural processes are underrepresented in Earth system models, although they decisively shape humanity’s planetary imprint. We set forth ideas on how Earth system analysis can be enriched by formalising aspects of religion (understood broadly as a collective belief in things held sacred). We sketch possible modelling avenues (extensions of existing Earth system models and new co-evolutionary models) and suggest research primers to explicate and quantify mental aspects of the Anthropocene.
Stefan Lange
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 627–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-627-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-627-2018, 2018
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The bias correction of surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation using parametric quantile mapping methods is shown to be more effective (i) at the daily than at the monthly timescale, (ii) if the spatial resolution gap between the reference data and the data to be corrected is bridged in a more suitable manner than by bilinear interpolation, and (iii) if physical upper limits are taken into account during the adjustment of either radiation component.
Camilla Mathison, Chetan Deva, Pete Falloon, and Andrew J. Challinor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 563–592, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-563-2018, 2018
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Sowing and harvest dates are a significant source of uncertainty within crop models. South Asia is one region with a large uncertainty. We aim to provide more accurate sowing and harvest dates than currently available and that are relevant for climate impact assessments. This method reproduces the present day sowing and harvest dates for most parts of India and when applied to two future periods provides a useful way of modelling potential growing season adaptations to changes in future climate.
Dario A. Zappalà, Marcelo Barreiro, and Cristina Masoller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 383–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-383-2018, 2018
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The dynamics of our climate involves multiple timescales, and while a lot of work has been devoted to quantifying variations in time-averaged variables or variations in their seasonal cycles, variations in daily variability that occur over several decades still remain poorly understood. Here we analyse daily surface air temperature and demonstrate that inter-decadal changes can be precisely identified and quantified with the Hilbert analysis tool.
Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 15–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, 2018
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The Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method applies statistical information to systematically select, transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the Earth system state. We show that due to changing climate forcing, such as anthropogenic climate change, the ad hoc assessment indicators might need to be reevaluated. Within an iterative process, this method would allow us to select scientifically consistent and societally relevant assessment indicators.
Liga Bethere, Juris Sennikovs, and Uldis Bethers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 951–962, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-951-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-951-2017, 2017
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We define three new climate indices based on monthly mean temperature and total precipitation values that describe the main features of the climate in the Baltic states. Higher values in each index correspond to (1) less distinct seasonality and (2) warmer and (3) wetter climate. It was calculated that in the future all three indices will increase. Such indices summarize and illustrate the spatial features of the Baltic climate, and they can be used in further analysis of climate change impact.
Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and M. Levent Kavvas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 931–949, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-931-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-931-2017, 2017
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Groundwater level fluctuations in confined aquifer wells with long observations exhibit site-specific fractal scaling behavior, and the underlying distribution exhibits either non-Gaussian characteristics, which may be fitted by the Lévy stable distribution, or Gaussian characteristics. The estimated Hurst exponent is highly dependent on the length and the specific time interval of the time series. The MF-DFA and MMA analyses showed that different levels of multifractality exist.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 849–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, 2017
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We provide an explanation why land temperatures respond more strongly to global warming than ocean temperatures, a robust finding in observations and models that has so far not been understood well. We explain it by the different ways by which ocean and land surfaces buffer the strong variation in solar radiation and demonstrate this with a simple, physically based model. Our explanation also illustrates why nighttime temperatures warm more strongly, another robust finding of global warming.
Milan Flach, Fabian Gans, Alexander Brenning, Joachim Denzler, Markus Reichstein, Erik Rodner, Sebastian Bathiany, Paul Bodesheim, Yanira Guanche, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 677–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, 2017
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Anomalies and extremes are often detected using univariate peak-over-threshold approaches in the geoscience community. The Earth system is highly multivariate. We compare eight multivariate anomaly detection algorithms and combinations of data preprocessing. We identify three anomaly detection algorithms that outperform univariate extreme event detection approaches. The workflows have the potential to reveal novelties in data. Remarks on their application to real Earth observations are provided.
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