Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Editorial
| 
24 Feb 2023
Editorial |
| 24 Feb 2023
| 24 Feb 2023
Editorial: Global warming is due to an enhanced greenhouse effect, and anthropogenic heat emissions currently play a negligible role at the global scale
Biospheric Theory and Modelling Group, Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, 07745 Jena, Germany
ESD chief editor
Gabriele Messori
Department of Earth Sciences and Centre for Natural Hazards and
Disaster Science, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research,
Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
ESD chief editor
Somnath Baidya Roy
Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi,
New Delhi, 110016, India
ESD chief editor
Ira Didenkulova
Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
ESD chief editor
Ning Zeng
Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
ESD chief editor
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Jonathan Minz, Axel Kleidon, and Nsilulu T. Mbungu
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 2147–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2147-2024, 2024
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Estimates of power output from regional wind turbine deployments in energy scenarios assume that the impact of the atmospheric feedback on them is minimal. But numerical models show that the impact is large at the proposed scales of future deployment. We show that this impact can be captured by accounting only for the kinetic energy removed by turbines from the atmosphere. This can be easily applied to energy scenarios and leads to more physically representative estimates.
Pin-Hsin Hu, Christian H. Reick, Reiner Schnur, Axel Kleidon, and Martin Claussen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-111, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
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We introduce the new plant functional diversity model JeDi-BACH, a novel tool that integrates the Jena Diversity Model (JeDi) within the land component of the ICON Earth System Model. JeDi-BACH captures a richer set of plant trait variations based on environmental filtering and functional tradeoffs without a priori knowledge of the vegetation types. JeDi-BACH represents a significant advancement in modeling the complex interactions between plant functional diversity and climate.
Yinglin Tian, Deyu Zhong, Sarosh Alam Ghausi, Guangqian Wang, and Axel Kleidon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1363–1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1363-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1363-2023, 2023
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Downward longwave radiation (Rld) is critical for the surface energy budget, but its climatological variation on a global scale is not yet well understood physically. We use a semi-empirical equation derived by Brutsaert (1975) to identify the controlling role that atmospheric heat storage plays in spatiotemporal variations of Rld. Our work helps us to better understand aspects of climate variability, extreme events, and global warming by linking these to the mechanistic contributions of Rld.
Axel Kleidon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 861–896, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-861-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-861-2023, 2023
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The second law of thermodynamics has long intrigued scientists, but what role does it play in the Earth system? This review shows that its main role is that it shapes the conversion of sunlight into work. This work can then maintain the dynamics of the physical climate system, the biosphere, and human societies. The relevance of it is that apparently many processes work at their limits, directly or indirectly, so they become predictable by simple means.
Sarosh Alam Ghausi, Subimal Ghosh, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4431–4446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4431-2022, 2022
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The observed response of extreme precipitation to global warming remains unclear with significant regional variations. We show that a large part of this uncertainty can be removed when the imprint of clouds in surface temperatures is removed. We used a thermodynamic systems approach to remove the cloud radiative effect from temperatures. We then found that precipitation extremes intensified with global warming at positive rates which is consistent with physical arguments and model simulations.
Samuel Schroers, Olivier Eiff, Axel Kleidon, Ulrike Scherer, Jan Wienhöfer, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3125–3150, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3125-2022, 2022
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In hydrology the formation of landform patterns is of special interest as changing forcings of the natural systems, such as climate or land use, will change these structures. In our study we developed a thermodynamic framework for surface runoff on hillslopes and highlight the differences of energy conversion patterns on two related spatial and temporal scales. The results indicate that surface runoff on hillslopes approaches a maximum power state.
Samuel Schroers, Olivier Eiff, Axel Kleidon, Jan Wienhöfer, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-79, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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In this study we ask the basic question why surface runoff forms drainage networks and confluences at all and how structural macro form and micro topography is a result of thermodynamic laws. We find that on a macro level hillslopes should tend from negative exponential towards exponential forms and that on a micro level the formation of rills goes hand in hand with drainage network formation of river basins. We hypothesize that we can learn more about erosion processes if we extend this theory.
Axel Kleidon and Lee M. Miller
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4993–5005, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4993-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4993-2020, 2020
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When winds are used as renewable energy by more and more wind turbines, one needs to account for the effect of wind turbines on the atmospheric flow. The Kinetic Energy Budget of the Atmosphere (KEBA) model provides a simple, physics-based approach to account for this effect very well when compared to much more detailed numerical simulations with an atmospheric model. KEBA should be useful to derive lower, more realistic wind energy resource potentials of different regions.
Annu Panwar, Maik Renner, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4923–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4923-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4923-2020, 2020
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Here we examine the effect of evaporative cooling across different vegetation types. Evaporation cools surface temperature significantly in short vegetation. In the forest, the high aerodynamic conductance explains 56 % of the reduced surface temperature. Therefore, the main cooling agent in the forest is the high aerodynamic conductance and not evaporation. Additionally, we propose the diurnal variation in surface temperature as being a potential indicator of evaporation in short vegetation.
Axel Kleidon, Erwin Zehe, and Ralf Loritz
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-52, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-52, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Many fluxes in Earth systems are not homogeneously distributed across space, but occur highly concentrated in structures, such as turbulent eddies, river networks, vascular networks of plants, or human-made infrastructures. Yet, the highly-organized nature of these fluxes is typically only described at a rudimentary level, if at all. We propose that it requires a novel approach to describe these structures that focuses on the work done to build and maintain these structures, and the feedbacks.
Ralf Loritz, Axel Kleidon, Conrad Jackisch, Martijn Westhoff, Uwe Ehret, Hoshin Gupta, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3807–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3807-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3807-2019, 2019
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In this study, we develop a topographic index explaining hydrological similarity within a energy-centered framework, with the observation that the majority of potential energy is dissipated when rainfall becomes runoff.
Philipp Porada, Alexandra Tamm, Jose Raggio, Yafang Cheng, Axel Kleidon, Ulrich Pöschl, and Bettina Weber
Biogeosciences, 16, 2003–2031, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2003-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2003-2019, 2019
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The trace gases NO and HONO are crucial for atmospheric chemistry. It has been suggested that biological soil crusts in drylands contribute substantially to global NO and HONO emissions, based on empirical upscaling of laboratory and field observations. Here we apply an alternative, process-based modeling approach to predict these emissions. We find that biological soil crusts emit globally significant amounts of NO and HONO, which also vary depending on the type of biological soil crust.
Erwin Zehe, Ralf Loritz, Conrad Jackisch, Martijn Westhoff, Axel Kleidon, Theresa Blume, Sibylle K. Hassler, and Hubert H. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 971–987, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-971-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-971-2019, 2019
Martijn Westhoff, Axel Kleidon, Stan Schymanski, Benjamin Dewals, Femke Nijsse, Maik Renner, Henk Dijkstra, Hisashi Ozawa, Hubert Savenije, Han Dolman, Antoon Meesters, and Erwin Zehe
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-6, 2019
Publication in ESD not foreseen
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Even models relying on physical laws have parameters that need to be measured or estimated. Thermodynamic optimality principles potentially offer a way to reduce the number of estimated parameters by stating that a system evolves to an optimum state. These principles have been applied successfully within the Earth system, but it is often unclear what to optimize and how. In this review paper we identify commonalities between different successful applications as well as some doubtful applications.
Maik Renner, Claire Brenner, Kaniska Mallick, Hans-Dieter Wizemann, Luigi Conte, Ivonne Trebs, Jianhui Wei, Volker Wulfmeyer, Karsten Schulz, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 515–535, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-515-2019, 2019
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We estimate the phase lag of surface states and heat fluxes to incoming solar radiation at the sub-daily timescale. While evapotranspiration reveals a minor phase lag, the vapor pressure deficit used as input by Penman–Monteith approaches shows a large phase lag. The surface-to-air temperature gradient used by energy balance residual approaches shows a small phase shift in agreement with the sensible heat flux and thus explains the better correlation of these models at the sub-daily timescale.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1127–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, 2018
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Turbulent fluxes represent an efficient way to transport heat and moisture from the surface into the atmosphere. Due to their inherently highly complex nature, they are commonly described by semiempirical relationships. What we show here is that these fluxes can also be predicted by viewing them as the outcome of a heat engine that operates between the warm surface and the cooler atmosphere and that works at its limit.
Ralf Loritz, Hoshin Gupta, Conrad Jackisch, Martijn Westhoff, Axel Kleidon, Uwe Ehret, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3663-2018, 2018
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In this study we explore the role of spatially distributed information on hydrological modeling. For that, we develop and test an approach which draws upon information theory and thermodynamic reasoning. We show that the proposed set of methods provide a powerful framework for understanding and diagnosing how and when process organization and functional similarity of hydrological systems emerge in time and, hence, when which landscape characteristic is important in a model application.
Corina Buendía, Axel Kleidon, Stefano Manzoni, Björn Reu, and Amilcare Porporato
Biogeosciences, 15, 279–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-279-2018, 2018
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Amazonia is highly biodiverse and of global importance for regulating the climate system. Because soils are highly weathered, phosphorus (P) is suggested to limit ecosystem productivity. Here, we evaluate the importance of P redistribution by animals using a simple mathematical model synthesizing the major processes of the Amazon P cycle. Our findings suggest that food web complexity plays an important role for sustaining the productivity of terra firme forests.
Axel Kleidon and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-674, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-674, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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At larger scales, the flow of rivers can often be described by a relatively simple, exponential decay, and it is unclear how such simple behaviour can be explained given that river basins show such vast complexity. Here, we use a highly idealised model to show that such simple behaviour can be explained by viewing it as the emergent consequence of the groundwater system (which feeds river flow) minimising its energy dissipation.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 849–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, 2017
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We provide an explanation why land temperatures respond more strongly to global warming than ocean temperatures, a robust finding in observations and models that has so far not been understood well. We explain it by the different ways by which ocean and land surfaces buffer the strong variation in solar radiation and demonstrate this with a simple, physically based model. Our explanation also illustrates why nighttime temperatures warm more strongly, another robust finding of global warming.
Philipp Porada, Ulrich Pöschl, Axel Kleidon, Christian Beer, and Bettina Weber
Biogeosciences, 14, 1593–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1593-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1593-2017, 2017
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Lichens and bryophytes have been shown to release nitrous oxide, which is a strong greenhouse gas and atmospheric ozone-depleting agent. Here we apply a process-based computer model of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, to estimate growth and respiration of the organisms. By relating respiration to nitrous oxide release, we simulate global nitrous oxide emissions of 0.27 (0.19–0.35) Tg yr−1. Moreover, we quantify different sources of uncertainty in nitrous oxide emission rates.
Anke Hildebrandt, Axel Kleidon, and Marcel Bechmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3441–3454, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3441-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3441-2016, 2016
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This theoretical paper describes the energy fluxes and dissipation along the flow paths involved in root water uptake, an approach that is rarely taken. We show that this provides useful additional insights for understanding the biotic and abiotic impediments to root water uptake. This approach shall be applied to explore efficient water uptake strategies and help locate the limiting processes in the complex soil–plant–atmosphere system.
Maik Renner, Sibylle K. Hassler, Theresa Blume, Markus Weiler, Anke Hildebrandt, Marcus Guderle, Stanislaus J. Schymanski, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2063–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2063-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2063-2016, 2016
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We estimated forest transpiration (European beech) along a steep valley cross section. Atmospheric demand, obtained by the thermodynamic limit of maximum power, is the dominant control of transpiration at all sites.
To our surprise we find that transpiration is rather similar across sites with different aspect (north vs. south) and different stand structure due to systematically varying sap velocities. Such a compensation effect is highly relevant for modeling and upscaling of transpiration.
E. Zehe, U. Ehret, L. Pfister, T. Blume, B. Schröder, M. Westhoff, C. Jackisch, S. J. Schymanski, M. Weiler, K. Schulz, N. Allroggen, J. Tronicke, L. van Schaik, P. Dietrich, U. Scherer, J. Eccard, V. Wulfmeyer, and A. Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4635–4655, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4635-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4635-2014, 2014
C. Buendía, S. Arens, T. Hickler, S. I. Higgins, P. Porada, and A. Kleidon
Biogeosciences, 11, 3661–3683, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3661-2014, 2014
A. Kleidon, M. Renner, and P. Porada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2201–2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2201-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2201-2014, 2014
U. Ehret, H. V. Gupta, M. Sivapalan, S. V. Weijs, S. J. Schymanski, G. Blöschl, A. N. Gelfan, C. Harman, A. Kleidon, T. A. Bogaard, D. Wang, T. Wagener, U. Scherer, E. Zehe, M. F. P. Bierkens, G. Di Baldassarre, J. Parajka, L. P. H. van Beek, A. van Griensven, M. C. Westhoff, and H. C. Winsemius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 649–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, 2014
S. P. K. Bowring, L. M. Miller, L. Ganzeveld, and A. Kleidon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 43–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-43-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-43-2014, 2014
A. Kleidon and M. Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 455–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-455-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-455-2013, 2013
P. Porada, B. Weber, W. Elbert, U. Pöschl, and A. Kleidon
Biogeosciences, 10, 6989–7033, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6989-2013, 2013
E. Zehe, U. Ehret, T. Blume, A. Kleidon, U. Scherer, and M. Westhoff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4297–4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4297-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4297-2013, 2013
E. Simoncini, N. Virgo, and A. Kleidon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 317–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-317-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-317-2013, 2013
A. Kleidon and M. Renner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2873–2892, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2873-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2873-2013, 2013
A. Kleidon, E. Zehe, U. Ehret, and U. Scherer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 225–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-225-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-225-2013, 2013
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Jonathan Minz, Axel Kleidon, and Nsilulu T. Mbungu
Wind Energ. Sci., 9, 2147–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-9-2147-2024, 2024
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Estimates of power output from regional wind turbine deployments in energy scenarios assume that the impact of the atmospheric feedback on them is minimal. But numerical models show that the impact is large at the proposed scales of future deployment. We show that this impact can be captured by accounting only for the kinetic energy removed by turbines from the atmosphere. This can be easily applied to energy scenarios and leads to more physically representative estimates.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
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Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
Clare Marie Flynn, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-298, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We created a new, publicly available database of the Top 50 most extreme European winter windstorms from each of four different meteorological input data sets covering the years 1995–2015. We found variability in all aspects of our database, from which storms were included in the Top 50 storms for each input to their spatial variability. We urge users of our database to consider the storms as identified from two or more input sources within our database, where possible.
Gabriele Messori, Antonio Segalini, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1207–1225, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, 2024
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Simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells in remote geographical regions have potentially far-reaching impacts on society and the environment. Despite this, we have little knowledge of when and where these extreme events have occurred in the past decades. In this paper, we present a summary of past simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells and provide a computer program to enable other researchers to study them.
Pin-Hsin Hu, Christian H. Reick, Reiner Schnur, Axel Kleidon, and Martin Claussen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-111, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
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We introduce the new plant functional diversity model JeDi-BACH, a novel tool that integrates the Jena Diversity Model (JeDi) within the land component of the ICON Earth System Model. JeDi-BACH captures a richer set of plant trait variations based on environmental filtering and functional tradeoffs without a priori knowledge of the vegetation types. JeDi-BACH represents a significant advancement in modeling the complex interactions between plant functional diversity and climate.
Pengfei Han, Ning Zeng, Bo Yao, Wen Zhang, Weijun Quan, Pucai Wang, Ting Wang, Minqiang Zhou, Qixiang Cai, Yuzhong Zhang, Ruosi Liang, Wanqi Sun, and Shengxiang Liu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2162, 2024
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Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas. Northern China contributes a large proportion of CH4 emissions yet large observation gaps are existed. Here we compiled a comprehensive dataset which is publicly available including ground-based, satellite-based, inventory and modeling results, to show the CH4 concentrations, enhancements and spatial-temporal variations. The data can benefit the research community, and policy makers for future observations, atmospheric inversions and policy-making.
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
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Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
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Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Michael K. Schutte, Alice Portal, Simon H. Lee, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2240, 2024
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Large-scale motions in the atmosphere, namely atmospheric waves, greatly impact the weather that we experience at the Earth's surface. Here we investigate how waves in the troposphere (the lower 10 km of the atmosphere) and the stratosphere (above the troposphere) interact to affect surface weather. We find that tropospheric waves that are reflected back down by the stratosphere change weather patterns and temperatures in North America. These changes can indirectly affect the weather in Europe.
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, and Robert Vautard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024
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We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into extreme-weather events. Our tool unveils how climate change and natural variability affect these events, affecting communities worldwide. Our research equips policymakers and the public with essential knowledge, fostering informed decisions and enhancing climate resilience. We analysed two distinct events, showcasing ClimaMeter's global relevance.
K. Narender Reddy, Somnath Baidya Roy, Sam S. Rabin, Danica L. Lombardozzi, Gudimetla Venkateswara Varma, Ruchira Biswas, and Devavat Chiru Naik
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1431, 2024
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The study aimed to improve the representation of spring wheat and rice in the CLM5. The modified CLM5 model performed significantly better than the default model in simulating crop phenology, yield, carbon, water, and energy fluxes compared to observations. The study highlights the need for global land models to use region-specific parameters for accurately simulating vegetation processes and land surface processes.
Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711, 2024
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Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers are two main drivers of extreme weather in Europe. In this study, we investigate their joint changes in future climates over the North Atlantic. Our results show that both the concurrence of these events and the intensity of atmospheric rivers increase by the end of the century across different future scenarios. Furthermore, explosive cyclones associated with atmospheric rivers are longer-lasting and deeper than those without atmospheric rivers.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
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The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024
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Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, 2024
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In the last decades, weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future has been dominated by physics-based numerical models. Recently, deep learning models have challenged this paradigm. However, the latter models may struggle when forecasting weather extremes. In this article, we argue for deep learning models specifically designed to handle extreme events, and we propose a foundational framework to develop such models.
Yinglin Tian, Deyu Zhong, Sarosh Alam Ghausi, Guangqian Wang, and Axel Kleidon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1363–1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1363-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1363-2023, 2023
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Downward longwave radiation (Rld) is critical for the surface energy budget, but its climatological variation on a global scale is not yet well understood physically. We use a semi-empirical equation derived by Brutsaert (1975) to identify the controlling role that atmospheric heat storage plays in spatiotemporal variations of Rld. Our work helps us to better understand aspects of climate variability, extreme events, and global warming by linking these to the mechanistic contributions of Rld.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, 2023
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In this work, we draw on paleoreords, observations and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is considered conceivable but currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Kangari Narender Reddy, Shilpa Gahlot, Somnath Baidya Roy, Gudimetla Venkateswara Varma, Vinay Kumar Sehgal, and Gayatri Vangala
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 915–930, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-915-2023, 2023
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Carbon fluxes from agroecosystems change the carbon cycle and the amount of CO2 in the air. Using the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), we looked at the carbon cycle in areas where spring wheat is grown. The results showed that fluxes vary a lot between regions, mostly because planting times are different. According to our investigation into which variables have the greatest impact on the carbon cycle, nitrogen fertilizers added to crops have the greatest impact on carbon uptake.
Axel Kleidon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 861–896, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-861-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-861-2023, 2023
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The second law of thermodynamics has long intrigued scientists, but what role does it play in the Earth system? This review shows that its main role is that it shapes the conversion of sunlight into work. This work can then maintain the dynamics of the physical climate system, the biosphere, and human societies. The relevance of it is that apparently many processes work at their limits, directly or indirectly, so they become predictable by simple means.
Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 737–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, 2023
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We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to as persistence, and whether unusually persistent patterns favour warm-temperature extremes in Europe. We see no clear relationship between summertime heatwaves and unusually persistent patterns. This suggests that heatwaves do not necessarily require the continued flow of warm air over a region and that local effects could be important for their occurrence.
Ekaterina Didenkulova, Ira Didenkulova, and Igor Medvedev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1653–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, 2023
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The paper is dedicated to freak wave accidents which happened in the world ocean in 2005–2021 and that were described in mass media sources. The database accounts for 429 events, all of which resulted in ship or coastal and offshore structure damage and/or human losses. In agreement with each freak wave event, we put background wave and wind conditions extracted from the climate reanalysis ERA5. We analyse their statistics and discuss the favourable conditions for freak wave occurrence.
H. E. Markus Meier, Marcus Reckermann, Joakim Langner, Ben Smith, and Ira Didenkulova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 519–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, 2023
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The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports summarise the current state of knowledge on Earth system science in the Baltic Sea region. The 10 review articles focus on the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Some highlights of the results are presented here.
Brendan Byrne, David F. Baker, Sourish Basu, Michael Bertolacci, Kevin W. Bowman, Dustin Carroll, Abhishek Chatterjee, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Noel Cressie, David Crisp, Sean Crowell, Feng Deng, Zhu Deng, Nicholas M. Deutscher, Manvendra K. Dubey, Sha Feng, Omaira E. García, David W. T. Griffith, Benedikt Herkommer, Lei Hu, Andrew R. Jacobson, Rajesh Janardanan, Sujong Jeong, Matthew S. Johnson, Dylan B. A. Jones, Rigel Kivi, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Shamil Maksyutov, John B. Miller, Scot M. Miller, Isamu Morino, Justus Notholt, Tomohiro Oda, Christopher W. O'Dell, Young-Suk Oh, Hirofumi Ohyama, Prabir K. Patra, Hélène Peiro, Christof Petri, Sajeev Philip, David F. Pollard, Benjamin Poulter, Marine Remaud, Andrew Schuh, Mahesh K. Sha, Kei Shiomi, Kimberly Strong, Colm Sweeney, Yao Té, Hanqin Tian, Voltaire A. Velazco, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Thorsten Warneke, John R. Worden, Debra Wunch, Yuanzhi Yao, Jeongmin Yun, Andrew Zammit-Mangion, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 963–1004, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-963-2023, 2023
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Changes in the carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems result in emissions and removals of CO2. These can be driven by anthropogenic activities (e.g., deforestation), natural processes (e.g., fires) or in response to rising CO2 (e.g., CO2 fertilization). This paper describes a dataset of CO2 emissions and removals derived from atmospheric CO2 observations. This pilot dataset informs current capabilities and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.
Zhiqiang Liu, Ning Zeng, Yun Liu, Eugenia Kalnay, Ghassem Asrar, Qixiang Cai, and Pengfei Han
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-15, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-15, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We introduced a novel algorithm that assimilates a better a priori knowledge to improve the estimation of global surface carbon flux. The algorithm aims at separating the first-order systematic biases in the a priori "bottom-up" flux estimations out of the inversion framework from a comprehensive data assimilation perspective.
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
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The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
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We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, and Vivien Wendt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, 2022
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Over 10 km above the ground, there is a region of the atmosphere called the stratosphere. While there is very little air in the stratosphere itself, its interactions with the lower parts of the atmosphere – where we live – can affect the weather. Here we study a specific example of such an interaction, whereby processes occurring at the boundary of the stratosphere can lead to a continent-wide drop in temperatures in North America during winter.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
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Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Sarosh Alam Ghausi, Subimal Ghosh, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4431–4446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4431-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4431-2022, 2022
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The observed response of extreme precipitation to global warming remains unclear with significant regional variations. We show that a large part of this uncertainty can be removed when the imprint of clouds in surface temperatures is removed. We used a thermodynamic systems approach to remove the cloud radiative effect from temperatures. We then found that precipitation extremes intensified with global warming at positive rates which is consistent with physical arguments and model simulations.
Zhiqiang Liu, Ning Zeng, Yun Liu, Eugenia Kalnay, Ghassem Asrar, Bo Wu, Qixiang Cai, Di Liu, and Pengfei Han
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5511–5528, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5511-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5511-2022, 2022
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We described the application of a constrained ensemble Kalman filter (CEnKF) in a joint CO2 and surface carbon fluxes estimation study. By assimilating the pseudo-surface and OCO-2 observations, the annual global flux estimation is significantly biased without mass conservation. With the additional CEnKF process, the CO2 mass is strictly constrained, and the estimation of annual fluxes is significantly improved.
Samuel Schroers, Olivier Eiff, Axel Kleidon, Ulrike Scherer, Jan Wienhöfer, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3125–3150, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3125-2022, 2022
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In hydrology the formation of landform patterns is of special interest as changing forcings of the natural systems, such as climate or land use, will change these structures. In our study we developed a thermodynamic framework for surface runoff on hillslopes and highlight the differences of energy conversion patterns on two related spatial and temporal scales. The results indicate that surface runoff on hillslopes approaches a maximum power state.
Ruqi Yang, Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Stephen Sitch, Wenhan Tang, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Qixiang Cai, Di Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Hanqin Tian, Atul K. Jain, and Pengfei Han
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 833–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, 2022
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We comprehensively investigate historical GPP trends based on five kinds of GPP datasets and analyze the causes for any discrepancies among them. Results show contrasting behaviors between modeled and satellite-based GPP trends, and their inconsistencies are likely caused by the contrasting performance between satellite-derived and modeled leaf area index (LAI). Thus, the uncertainty in satellite-based GPP induced by LAI undermines its role in assessing the performance of DGVM simulations.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Tanvi Gupta and Somnath Baidya Roy
Adv. Geosci., 56, 129–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-56-129-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-56-129-2021, 2021
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In this paper we study how the momentum extracted by wind turbines get replenished so that the wind farm can continue to function. We use a numerical model to simulate the dynamics of a hypothetical coastal wind farm in the Arabian Sea under sea breeze conditions. Results show that vertical turbulent eddies can replenish more than half of the lost momentum, but horizontal advection also plays a role near the wind farm edges especially in sparsely packed wind farms.
Aheli Das and Somnath Baidya Roy
Adv. Geosci., 56, 89–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-56-89-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-56-89-2021, 2021
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In this study we evaluated subseasonal-seasonal scale forecasts of solar radiation, wind speed, temperature and relative humidity over India from 6 global models by comparing against observations. Results show that the overall quality of the forecasts are not good. However, they demonstrate enough skill suggesting that further improvement through calibration may make then useful for the renewable energy sector.
Tanvi Gupta and Somnath Baidya Roy
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1089–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1089-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1089-2021, 2021
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Wind turbines extract momentum from atmospheric flow and convert that to electricity. This study explores recovery processes in wind farms that replenish the momentum so that wind farms can continue to function. Experiments with a numerical model show that momentum transport by turbulent eddies from above the wind turbines is the major contributor to recovery except for strong wind conditions and low wind turbine density, where horizontal advection can also play a major role.
Zhaohui Chen, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Andrew J. Watson, Ute Schuster, Jiang Zhu, and Ning Zeng
Biogeosciences, 18, 4549–4570, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4549-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4549-2021, 2021
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As the global temperature continues to increase, carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major driver of this global warming. The increased CO2 is mainly caused by emissions from fossil fuel use and land use. At the same time, the ocean is a significant sink in the carbon cycle. The North Atlantic is a critical ocean region in reducing CO2 concentration. We estimate the CO2 uptake in this region based on a carbon inverse system and atmospheric CO2 observations.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
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Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Di Liu, Wanqi Sun, Ning Zeng, Pengfei Han, Bo Yao, Zhiqiang Liu, Pucai Wang, Ke Zheng, Han Mei, and Qixiang Cai
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4599–4614, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4599-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4599-2021, 2021
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It is difficult to directly observe the COVID-19 signals in CO2 due to the strong weather induced variations. Here, we determined the on-road CO2 concentration declines in Beijing using mobile observatory data before (BC), during (DC) and after COVID-19 (AC). We chose trips with the most similar weather and calculated the enhancement, the difference between on-road and the city “background”. We showed a clear on-road CO2 decrease in DC, which is consistent with the emissions reductions in DC.
Xiaohui Lin, Wen Zhang, Monica Crippa, Shushi Peng, Pengfei Han, Ning Zeng, Lijun Yu, and Guocheng Wang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1073–1088, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1073-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1073-2021, 2021
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CH4 is a potent greenhouse gas, and China’s anthropogenic CH4 emissions account for a large proportion of global total emissions. However, the existing estimates either focus on a specific sector or lag behind real time by several years. We collected and analyzed 12 datasets and compared them to reveal the spatiotemporal changes and their uncertainties. We further estimated the emissions from 1990–2019, and the estimates showed a robust trend in recent years when compared to top-down results.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
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The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Samuel Schroers, Olivier Eiff, Axel Kleidon, Jan Wienhöfer, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2021-79, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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In this study we ask the basic question why surface runoff forms drainage networks and confluences at all and how structural macro form and micro topography is a result of thermodynamic laws. We find that on a macro level hillslopes should tend from negative exponential towards exponential forms and that on a micro level the formation of rills goes hand in hand with drainage network formation of river basins. We hypothesize that we can learn more about erosion processes if we extend this theory.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
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Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Axel Kleidon and Lee M. Miller
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4993–5005, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4993-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4993-2020, 2020
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When winds are used as renewable energy by more and more wind turbines, one needs to account for the effect of wind turbines on the atmospheric flow. The Kinetic Energy Budget of the Atmosphere (KEBA) model provides a simple, physics-based approach to account for this effect very well when compared to much more detailed numerical simulations with an atmospheric model. KEBA should be useful to derive lower, more realistic wind energy resource potentials of different regions.
Annu Panwar, Maik Renner, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4923–4942, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4923-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4923-2020, 2020
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Here we examine the effect of evaporative cooling across different vegetation types. Evaporation cools surface temperature significantly in short vegetation. In the forest, the high aerodynamic conductance explains 56 % of the reduced surface temperature. Therefore, the main cooling agent in the forest is the high aerodynamic conductance and not evaporation. Additionally, we propose the diurnal variation in surface temperature as being a potential indicator of evaporation in short vegetation.
Narender Kangari Reddy and Somnath Baidya Roy
Adv. Geosci., 54, 79–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-79-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-79-2020, 2020
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In this study, we apply the Genetic Algorithm technique that mimics the natural selection process observed in nature to design optimal layouts for massive wind farms off the southeastern coast of India using real wind data. Our results show that layout optimization leads to large improvements in power generation (up to 28 %), efficiency (up to 34 %), and cost (up to 25 %) due to the reduction in wake losses.
Pengfei Han, Ning Zeng, Tom Oda, Xiaohui Lin, Monica Crippa, Dabo Guan, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Xiaolin Ma, Zhu Liu, Yuli Shan, Shu Tao, Haikun Wang, Rong Wang, Lin Wu, Xiao Yun, Qiang Zhang, Fang Zhao, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 11371–11385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11371-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11371-2020, 2020
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An accurate estimation of China’s fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (FFCO2) is significant for quantification of carbon budget and emissions reductions towards the Paris Agreement goals. Here we assessed 9 global and regional inventories. Our findings highlight the significance of using locally measured coal emission factors. We call on the enhancement of physical measurements for validation and provide comprehensive information for inventory, monitoring, modeling, assimilation, and reducing emissions.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020
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In this paper we quantify Mediterranean compound temperature and precipitation dynamical extremes (CDEs) over the 1979–2018 period. The strength of the temperature–precipitation coupling during summer increased and is driven by surface warming. We also link the CDEs to compound hot–dry and cold–wet events during summer and winter respectively.
Shilpa Gahlot, Tzu-Shun Lin, Atul K. Jain, Somnath Baidya Roy, Vinay K. Sehgal, and Rajkumar Dhakar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 641–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-641-2020, 2020
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Spring wheat, a staple for millions of people in India and the world, is vulnerable to changing environmental and management factors. Using a new spring wheat model, we find that over the 1980–2016 period elevated CO2 levels, irrigation, and nitrogen fertilizers led to an increase of 30 %, 12 %, and 15 % in countrywide production, respectively. In contrast, rising temperatures have reduced production by 18 %. These effects vary across the country, thereby affecting production at regional scales.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020
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We show that floods and droughts can co-occur in time across remote regions on the globe and introduce metrics that can help in quantifying concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes. We then link wet–dry extremes to major modes of climate variability (i.e. ENSO, PDO, and AMO) and provide their spatial patterns. Such concurrent extreme hydrological events may pose risks to regional hydropower production and agricultural yields.
Binghao Jia, Xin Luo, Ximing Cai, Atul Jain, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Zhenghui Xie, Ning Zeng, Jiafu Mao, Xiaoying Shi, Akihiko Ito, Yaxing Wei, Hanqin Tian, Benjamin Poulter, Dan Hayes, and Kevin Schaefer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 235–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-235-2020, 2020
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We quantitatively examined the relative contributions of climate change, land
use and land cover change, and elevated CO2 to interannual variations and seasonal cycle amplitude of gross primary productivity (GPP) in China based on multi-model ensemble simulations. The contributions of major subregions to the temporal change in China's total GPP are also presented. This work may help us better understand GPP spatiotemporal patterns and their responses to regional changes and human activities.
Ahmed A. Abdalazeez, Ira Didenkulova, and Denys Dutykh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2905–2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2905-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2905-2019, 2019
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This work is based on the authors' idea that asymmetry of a tsunami wave gained during its propagation in the ocean should also influence its run-up height on the slope. This was previously analytically shown by the authors for sinusoidal waves. In the paper, this idea is elaborated for single waves using both semi-analytical and numerical methods. The corresponding formula for the maximum run-up height which takes into account the wave front steepness is proposed.
Sebastian Scher and Gabriele Messori
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 381–399, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-381-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-381-2019, 2019
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Neural networks are a technique that is widely used to predict the time evolution of physical systems. For this the past evolution of the system is shown to the neural network – it is
trained– and then can be used to predict the evolution in the future. We show some limitations in this approach for certain systems that are important to consider when using neural networks for climate- and weather-related applications.
Axel Kleidon, Erwin Zehe, and Ralf Loritz
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-52, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-52, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Many fluxes in Earth systems are not homogeneously distributed across space, but occur highly concentrated in structures, such as turbulent eddies, river networks, vascular networks of plants, or human-made infrastructures. Yet, the highly-organized nature of these fluxes is typically only described at a rudimentary level, if at all. We propose that it requires a novel approach to describe these structures that focuses on the work done to build and maintain these structures, and the feedbacks.
Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Gabriele Messori, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, 2019
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We show how the complex dynamics of the jet stream at midlatitude can be described by a simple mathematical model. We match the properties of the model to those obtained by the jet data derived from observations.
Ralf Loritz, Axel Kleidon, Conrad Jackisch, Martijn Westhoff, Uwe Ehret, Hoshin Gupta, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3807–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3807-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3807-2019, 2019
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In this study, we develop a topographic index explaining hydrological similarity within a energy-centered framework, with the observation that the majority of potential energy is dissipated when rainfall becomes runoff.
Yun Liu, Eugenia Kalnay, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Zhaohui Chen, and Binghao Jia
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2899–2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2899-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2899-2019, 2019
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We developed a new carbon data assimilation system to estimate the surface carbon fluxes using the LETKF and GEOS-Chem model, which uses a new scheme with a short
assimilation windowand a long
observation window. The analysis is more accurate using the short assimilation window and is exposed to the future observations that accelerate the spin-up. In OSSE, the system reduces the analysis error significantly, suggesting that this method could be used for other data assimilation problems.
Sebastian Scher and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2797–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2797-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2797-2019, 2019
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Currently, weather forecasts are mainly produced by using computer models based on physical equations. It is an appealing idea to use neural networks and “deep learning” for weather forecasting instead. We successfully test the possibility of using deep learning for weather forecasting by considering climate models as simplified versions of reality. Our work therefore is a step towards potentially using deep learning to replace or accompany current weather forecasting models.
Philipp Porada, Alexandra Tamm, Jose Raggio, Yafang Cheng, Axel Kleidon, Ulrich Pöschl, and Bettina Weber
Biogeosciences, 16, 2003–2031, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2003-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2003-2019, 2019
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The trace gases NO and HONO are crucial for atmospheric chemistry. It has been suggested that biological soil crusts in drylands contribute substantially to global NO and HONO emissions, based on empirical upscaling of laboratory and field observations. Here we apply an alternative, process-based modeling approach to predict these emissions. We find that biological soil crusts emit globally significant amounts of NO and HONO, which also vary depending on the type of biological soil crust.
Erwin Zehe, Ralf Loritz, Conrad Jackisch, Martijn Westhoff, Axel Kleidon, Theresa Blume, Sibylle K. Hassler, and Hubert H. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 971–987, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-971-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-971-2019, 2019
Martijn Westhoff, Axel Kleidon, Stan Schymanski, Benjamin Dewals, Femke Nijsse, Maik Renner, Henk Dijkstra, Hisashi Ozawa, Hubert Savenije, Han Dolman, Antoon Meesters, and Erwin Zehe
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-6, 2019
Publication in ESD not foreseen
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Even models relying on physical laws have parameters that need to be measured or estimated. Thermodynamic optimality principles potentially offer a way to reduce the number of estimated parameters by stating that a system evolves to an optimum state. These principles have been applied successfully within the Earth system, but it is often unclear what to optimize and how. In this review paper we identify commonalities between different successful applications as well as some doubtful applications.
Maik Renner, Claire Brenner, Kaniska Mallick, Hans-Dieter Wizemann, Luigi Conte, Ivonne Trebs, Jianhui Wei, Volker Wulfmeyer, Karsten Schulz, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 515–535, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-515-2019, 2019
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We estimate the phase lag of surface states and heat fluxes to incoming solar radiation at the sub-daily timescale. While evapotranspiration reveals a minor phase lag, the vapor pressure deficit used as input by Penman–Monteith approaches shows a large phase lag. The surface-to-air temperature gradient used by energy balance residual approaches shows a small phase shift in agreement with the sensible heat flux and thus explains the better correlation of these models at the sub-daily timescale.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1127–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, 2018
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Turbulent fluxes represent an efficient way to transport heat and moisture from the surface into the atmosphere. Due to their inherently highly complex nature, they are commonly described by semiempirical relationships. What we show here is that these fluxes can also be predicted by viewing them as the outcome of a heat engine that operates between the warm surface and the cooler atmosphere and that works at its limit.
Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Meirong Wang, Fei Jiang, Jingming Chen, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Ziqiang Jiang, Weimin Ju, Sebastian Lienert, Julia Nabel, Stephen Sitch, Nicolas Viovy, Hengmao Wang, and Andrew J. Wiltshire
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10333–10345, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10333-2018, 2018
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Based on the Mauna Loa CO2 records and TRENDY multi-model historical simulations, we investigate the different impacts of EP and CP El Niños on interannual carbon cycle variability. Composite analysis indicates that the evolutions of CO2 growth rate anomalies have three clear differences in terms of precursors (negative and neutral), amplitudes (strong and weak), and durations of peak (Dec–Apr and Oct–Jan) during EP and CP El Niños, respectively. We further discuss their terrestrial mechanisms.
Ralf Loritz, Hoshin Gupta, Conrad Jackisch, Martijn Westhoff, Axel Kleidon, Uwe Ehret, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3663-2018, 2018
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In this study we explore the role of spatially distributed information on hydrological modeling. For that, we develop and test an approach which draws upon information theory and thermodynamic reasoning. We show that the proposed set of methods provide a powerful framework for understanding and diagnosing how and when process organization and functional similarity of hydrological systems emerge in time and, hence, when which landscape characteristic is important in a model application.
Corina Buendía, Axel Kleidon, Stefano Manzoni, Björn Reu, and Amilcare Porporato
Biogeosciences, 15, 279–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-279-2018, 2018
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Amazonia is highly biodiverse and of global importance for regulating the climate system. Because soils are highly weathered, phosphorus (P) is suggested to limit ecosystem productivity. Here, we evaluate the importance of P redistribution by animals using a simple mathematical model synthesizing the major processes of the Amazon P cycle. Our findings suggest that food web complexity plays an important role for sustaining the productivity of terra firme forests.
Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Meirong Wang, Fei Jiang, Hengmao Wang, and Ziqiang Jiang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1-2018, 2018
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Behaviors of terrestrial ecosystems differ in different El Niños. We analyze terrestrial carbon cycle responses to two extreme El Niños (2015/16 and 1997/98), and find large differences. We find that global land–atmosphere carbon flux anomaly was about 2 times smaller in 2015/16 than in 1997/98 event, without the obvious lagged response. Then we illustrate the climatic and biological mechanisms of the different terrestrial carbon cycle responses in 2015/16 and 1997/98 El Niños regionally.
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, and Pascal Yiou
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 713–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, 2017
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We study the dynamical properties of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation by analysing the sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency field over the period 1948–2013. The metrics are linked to the predictability and the persistence of the atmospheric flows. We study the dependence on the seasonal cycle and the fields corresponding to maxima and minima of the dynamical indicators.
Axel Kleidon and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-674, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-674, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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At larger scales, the flow of rivers can often be described by a relatively simple, exponential decay, and it is unclear how such simple behaviour can be explained given that river basins show such vast complexity. Here, we use a highly idealised model to show that such simple behaviour can be explained by viewing it as the emergent consequence of the groundwater system (which feeds river flow) minimising its energy dissipation.
Yun Liu, Eugenia Kalnay, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Zhaohui Chen, and Binghao Jia
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-888, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-888, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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We developed a new Carbon data assimilation system to estimate the surface carbon fluxes using the LETKF and GEOS-Chem model, which uses a new scheme with a short
assimilation windowand a long
observation window. The analysis is more accurate with the short assimilation window and is exposed to the future observations accelerating the spin up. In OSSE, the system reduces significantly the analysis error, suggesting that this method could be used in other data assimilation problems.
Pengfei Han, Ning Zeng, Fang Zhao, and Xiaohui Lin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 875–887, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-875-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-875-2017, 2017
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Global cropland net primary production has tripled over the last 50 years. However, long-term comparisons across global croplands are scarce due to the lack of detailed management data. Here, we conducted a simulation study of global cropland production from 1961 to 2010 using the VEGAS model. We modified the key parameter associated with the Green Revolution. The updated results decreased the RMSE by ~ 45 %, suggesting it is important to calibrate key parameters on regional scales.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 849–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, 2017
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We provide an explanation why land temperatures respond more strongly to global warming than ocean temperatures, a robust finding in observations and models that has so far not been understood well. We explain it by the different ways by which ocean and land surfaces buffer the strong variation in solar radiation and demonstrate this with a simple, physically based model. Our explanation also illustrates why nighttime temperatures warm more strongly, another robust finding of global warming.
Cory R. Martin, Ning Zeng, Anna Karion, Russell R. Dickerson, Xinrong Ren, Bari N. Turpie, and Kristy J. Weber
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2383–2395, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2383-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2383-2017, 2017
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A low-cost sensor for measuring carbon dioxide is evaluated for its performance in detecting concentrations in Earth's atmosphere. After a multivariate regression correcting for environmental variables, the root mean square error between it and a research-grade gas analyzer is less than 0.5 % of the observed average value. This demonstrates the viability for using these sensors in certain real-world atmospheric observing applications.
Philipp Porada, Ulrich Pöschl, Axel Kleidon, Christian Beer, and Bettina Weber
Biogeosciences, 14, 1593–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1593-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1593-2017, 2017
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Lichens and bryophytes have been shown to release nitrous oxide, which is a strong greenhouse gas and atmospheric ozone-depleting agent. Here we apply a process-based computer model of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, to estimate growth and respiration of the organisms. By relating respiration to nitrous oxide release, we simulate global nitrous oxide emissions of 0.27 (0.19–0.35) Tg yr−1. Moreover, we quantify different sources of uncertainty in nitrous oxide emission rates.
Nizar Abcha, Tonglei Zhang, Alexander Ezersky, Efim Pelinovsky, and Ira Didenkulova
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 157–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-157-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-157-2017, 2017
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Parametric excitation of edge waves with a frequency 2 times less than the frequency of surface waves propagating perpendicular to the inclined bottom are investigated in laboratory experiments. The domain of instability on the plane of surface wave parameters (amplitude–frequency) is found. The subcritical instability is observed in the system of parametrically excited edge waves. It is shown that breaking of surface waves initiates turbulent effects and can suppress the parametric generation.
Anke Hildebrandt, Axel Kleidon, and Marcel Bechmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3441–3454, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3441-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3441-2016, 2016
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This theoretical paper describes the energy fluxes and dissipation along the flow paths involved in root water uptake, an approach that is rarely taken. We show that this provides useful additional insights for understanding the biotic and abiotic impediments to root water uptake. This approach shall be applied to explore efficient water uptake strategies and help locate the limiting processes in the complex soil–plant–atmosphere system.
Héléne Hébert, Ira Didenkulova, Hermann M. Fritz, and Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1855–1857, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1855-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1855-2016, 2016
Maik Renner, Sibylle K. Hassler, Theresa Blume, Markus Weiler, Anke Hildebrandt, Marcus Guderle, Stanislaus J. Schymanski, and Axel Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2063–2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2063-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2063-2016, 2016
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We estimated forest transpiration (European beech) along a steep valley cross section. Atmospheric demand, obtained by the thermodynamic limit of maximum power, is the dominant control of transpiration at all sites.
To our surprise we find that transpiration is rather similar across sites with different aspect (north vs. south) and different stand structure due to systematically varying sap velocities. Such a compensation effect is highly relevant for modeling and upscaling of transpiration.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
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We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
F. S. R. Pausata, M. Gaetani, G. Messori, S. Kloster, and F. J. Dentener
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1725–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1725-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1725-2015, 2015
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our study suggests that future aerosol abatement may be the primary driver of increased blocking events over the western Mediterranean. This modification of the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic sector leads to more stagnant weather conditions that favour air pollutant accumulation especially in the western Mediterranean sector. Changes in atmospheric circulation should therefore be included in future air pollution mitigation assessments.
F. Zhao and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 423–439, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-423-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-423-2014, 2014
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This paper presents the CMIP5 model predictions on the seasonal characteristics of global carbon cycle. We show a model consensus that the amplitude of this seasonal cycle will increase in the future under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. This is mostly due to enhanced ecosystem productivity in high latitude regions. While the models' ensemble CO2 amplitude increase is close to observation, our results suggest the underlying mechanisms may not be realistic.
E. Zehe, U. Ehret, L. Pfister, T. Blume, B. Schröder, M. Westhoff, C. Jackisch, S. J. Schymanski, M. Weiler, K. Schulz, N. Allroggen, J. Tronicke, L. van Schaik, P. Dietrich, U. Scherer, J. Eccard, V. Wulfmeyer, and A. Kleidon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4635–4655, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4635-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4635-2014, 2014
J. B. Fisher, M. Sikka, W. C. Oechel, D. N. Huntzinger, J. R. Melton, C. D. Koven, A. Ahlström, M. A. Arain, I. Baker, J. M. Chen, P. Ciais, C. Davidson, M. Dietze, B. El-Masri, D. Hayes, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, P. E. Levy, M. R. Lomas, B. Poulter, D. Price, A. K. Sahoo, K. Schaefer, H. Tian, E. Tomelleri, H. Verbeeck, N. Viovy, R. Wania, N. Zeng, and C. E. Miller
Biogeosciences, 11, 4271–4288, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014, 2014
C. Buendía, S. Arens, T. Hickler, S. I. Higgins, P. Porada, and A. Kleidon
Biogeosciences, 11, 3661–3683, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3661-2014, 2014
A. Kleidon, M. Renner, and P. Porada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2201–2218, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2201-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2201-2014, 2014
U. Ehret, H. V. Gupta, M. Sivapalan, S. V. Weijs, S. J. Schymanski, G. Blöschl, A. N. Gelfan, C. Harman, A. Kleidon, T. A. Bogaard, D. Wang, T. Wagener, U. Scherer, E. Zehe, M. F. P. Bierkens, G. Di Baldassarre, J. Parajka, L. P. H. van Beek, A. van Griensven, M. C. Westhoff, and H. C. Winsemius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 649–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, 2014
S. P. K. Bowring, L. M. Miller, L. Ganzeveld, and A. Kleidon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 43–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-43-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-43-2014, 2014
D. N. Huntzinger, C. Schwalm, A. M. Michalak, K. Schaefer, A. W. King, Y. Wei, A. Jacobson, S. Liu, R. B. Cook, W. M. Post, G. Berthier, D. Hayes, M. Huang, A. Ito, H. Lei, C. Lu, J. Mao, C. H. Peng, S. Peng, B. Poulter, D. Riccuito, X. Shi, H. Tian, W. Wang, N. Zeng, F. Zhao, and Q. Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 2121–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2121-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-2121-2013, 2013
A. Kleidon and M. Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 455–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-455-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-455-2013, 2013
P. Porada, B. Weber, W. Elbert, U. Pöschl, and A. Kleidon
Biogeosciences, 10, 6989–7033, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6989-2013, 2013
E. Zehe, U. Ehret, T. Blume, A. Kleidon, U. Scherer, and M. Westhoff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4297–4322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4297-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4297-2013, 2013
E. Simoncini, N. Virgo, and A. Kleidon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 317–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-317-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-317-2013, 2013
A. Kleidon and M. Renner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2873–2892, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2873-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2873-2013, 2013
C. Le Quéré, R. J. Andres, T. Boden, T. Conway, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, G. Marland, G. P. Peters, G. R. van der Werf, A. Ahlström, R. M. Andrew, L. Bopp, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, S. C. Doney, C. Enright, P. Friedlingstein, C. Huntingford, A. K. Jain, C. Jourdain, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, K. Klein Goldewijk, S. Levis, P. Levy, M. Lomas, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, J. Schwinger, S. Sitch, B. D. Stocker, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
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