Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Jun 2022
Research article |
| 02 Jun 2022
| 02 Jun 2022
Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy
Miriam D'Errico
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Flavio Pons
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Pascal Yiou
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Soulivanh Tao
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Cesare Nardini
Service de Physique de l'État Condensé, CNRS UMR 3680, CEA-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Frank Lunkeit
Meteorological Institute, CEN, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Davide Faranda
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
London Mathematical Laboratory, 8 Margravine Gardens, London, W6 8RH, UK
LMD/IPSL, Ecole Normale Superieure, PSL research University, Paris, France
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Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3473, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3473, 2024
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Cold extremes significantly affect healthcare and energy systems. Global warming is expected to reduce these extremes. Our study indeed shows that very intense cold spells will become nearly impossible in France by the end of the 21st century for high levels of warming. However, we demonstrate that events as intense as the 1985 cold spell in France may still occur in the near future. These events are linked to specific atmospheric patterns that bring cold air from high latitudes into Europe.
Robin Noyelle, Davide Faranda, Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, and Pascal Yiou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3167, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Extreme meteorological and climatological events properties are changing under human caused climate change. Extreme events attribution methods seek to estimate the contribution of global warming in the probability and intensity changes of extreme events. Here we propose a procedure to estimate these quantities for the flow analogues method which compare the observed event to similar events in the past.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Storm Daniel (2023) is one of the most catastrophic ones ever documented in the Mediterranean. Our results highlight the different dynamics and therefore the different predictability skill of precipitation, its extremes and impacts that have been produced in Greece and Libya, the two most affected countries. Our approach concerns a holistic analysis of the storm by articulating dynamics, weather prediction, hydrological and oceanographic implications, climate extremes and attribution theory.
Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, 2024
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Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, and Robert Vautard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024
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We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into extreme-weather events. Our tool unveils how climate change and natural variability affect these events, affecting communities worldwide. Our research equips policymakers and the public with essential knowledge, fostering informed decisions and enhancing climate resilience. We analysed two distinct events, showcasing ClimaMeter's global relevance.
Rémy Asselot, Philip B. Holden, Frank Lunkeit, and Inga Hense
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 875–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-875-2024, 2024
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Phytoplankton are tiny oceanic algae able to absorb the light penetrating the ocean. The light absorbed by these organisms is re-emitted as heat in the surrounding environment, a process commonly called phytoplankton light absorption (PLA). As a consequence, PLA increases the oceanic temperature. We studied this mechanism with a climate model under different climate scenarios. We show that phytoplankton light absorption is reduced under strong warming scenarios, limiting oceanic warming.
Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711, 2024
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Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers are two main drivers of extreme weather in Europe. In this study, we investigate their joint changes in future climates over the North Atlantic. Our results show that both the concurrence of these events and the intensity of atmospheric rivers increase by the end of the century across different future scenarios. Furthermore, explosive cyclones associated with atmospheric rivers are longer-lasting and deeper than those without atmospheric rivers.
Mathieu Vrac, Denis Allard, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Soulivanh Thao, and Lucas Schmutz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 735–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-735-2024, 2024
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We aim to combine multiple global climate models (GCMs) to enhance the robustness of future projections. We introduce a novel approach, called "α pooling", aggregating the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the models into a CDF more aligned with historical data. The new CDFs allow us to perform bias adjustment of all the raw climate simulations at once. Experiments with European temperature and precipitation demonstrate the superiority of this approach over conventional techniques.
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, 2024
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In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-612, 2024
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Extreme winter cold temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts. This study focuses on very extreme cold events, such as the record of winter 1963 in France, expected to become rarer due to climate change. We use a light and efficient rare event algorithm to simulate a large number of extreme cold winters over France, to analyse their characteristics. We find that despite fewer occurrences, their intensity remains steady. We analyse prevailing atmospheric circulation during these events.
Yuan-Bing Zhao, Nedjeljka Žagar, Frank Lunkeit, and Richard Blender
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 833–852, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-833-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-833-2023, 2023
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Coupled climate models have significant biases in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST). Our study shows that the TIO SST biases can affect the simulated global atmospheric circulation and its spatio-temporal variability on large scales. The response of the spatial variability is related to the amplitude or phase of the circulation bias, depending on the flow regime and spatial scale, while the response of the interannual variability depends on the sign of the SST bias.
Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 737–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, 2023
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We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to as persistence, and whether unusually persistent patterns favour warm-temperature extremes in Europe. We see no clear relationship between summertime heatwaves and unusually persistent patterns. This suggests that heatwaves do not necessarily require the continued flow of warm air over a region and that local effects could be important for their occurrence.
Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023, 2023
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We present a simple system to forecast the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). We use atmospheric circulation as input to our system. We found a good-skill forecast of the MJO amplitude within 40 d using this methodology. Comparing our results with ECMWF and machine learning forecasts confirmed the good skill of our system.
Iana Strigunova, Richard Blender, Frank Lunkeit, and Nedjeljka Žagar
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1399–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1399-2022, 2022
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We show that the Eurasian heat waves (HWs) have signatures in the global circulation. We present changes in the probability density functions (PDFs) of energy anomalies in the zonal-mean state and in the Rossby waves at different zonal scales in relation to the changes in intramonthly variability. The skewness of the PDF of planetary-scale Rossby waves is shown to increase during HWs, while their intramonthly variability is reduced, a process referred to as blocking.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
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We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons and Davide Faranda
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 155–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-155-2022, 2022
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The objective motivating this study is the assessment of the impacts of winter climate extremes, which requires accurate simulation of snowfall. However, climate simulation models contain physical approximations, which result in biases that must be corrected using past data as a reference. We show how to exploit simulated temperature and precipitation to estimate snowfall from already bias-corrected variables, without requiring the elaboration of complex, multivariate bias adjustment techniques.
Meriem Krouma, Pascal Yiou, Céline Déandreis, and Soulivanh Thao
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4941–4958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4941-2022, 2022
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We evaluated the skill of a stochastic weather generator (SWG) to forecast precipitation at different time scales and in different areas of western Europe from analogs of Z500 hPa. The SWG has the skill to simulate precipitation for 5 and 10 d. We found that forecast weaknesses can be associated with specific weather patterns. The comparison with ECMWF forecasts confirms the skill of our model. This work is important because it provides information about weather forecasts over specific areas.
Linh N. Luu, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, and Jean-Michel Soubeyroux
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 687–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-687-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-687-2022, 2022
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This study downscales climate information from EURO-CORDEX (approx. 12 km) output to a higher horizontal resolution (approx. 3 km) for the south of France. We also propose a matrix of different indices to evaluate the high-resolution precipitation output. We find that a higher resolution reproduces more realistic extreme precipitation events at both daily and sub-daily timescales. Our results and approach are promising to apply to other Mediterranean regions and climate impact studies.
Bérengère Dubrulle, François Daviaud, Davide Faranda, Louis Marié, and Brice Saint-Michel
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-17-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-17-2022, 2022
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Present climate models discuss climate change but show no sign of bifurcation in the future. Is this because there is none or because they are in essence too simplified to be able to capture them? To get elements of an answer, we ran a laboratory experiment and discovered that the answer is not so simple.
Rémy Asselot, Frank Lunkeit, Philip B. Holden, and Inga Hense
Biogeosciences, 19, 223–239, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-223-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-223-2022, 2022
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Previous studies show that phytoplankton light absorption can warm the atmosphere, but how this warming occurs is still unknown. We compare the importance of air–sea heat versus CO2 flux in the phytoplankton-induced atmospheric warming and determine the main driver. To shed light on this research question, we conduct simulations with a climate model of intermediate complexity. We show that phytoplankton mainly warms the atmosphere by increasing the air–sea CO2 flux.
Rémy Asselot, Frank Lunkeit, Philip Holden, and Inga Hense
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-91, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Phytoplankton absorbing light can influence the climate system but its future effect on the climate is still unclear. We use a climate model to investigate the role of phytoplankton light absorption under global warming. We find out that the effect of phytoplankton light absorption is smaller under a high greenhouse gas emissions compared to reduced and intermediate greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, we show that phytoplankton light absorption is an important mechanism for the carbon cycle.
Pascal Yiou and Nicolas Viovy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 997–1013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-997-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-997-2021, 2021
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This paper presents a model of tree ruin as a response to drought hazards. This model is inspired by a standard model of ruin in the insurance industry. We illustrate how ruin can occur in present-day conditions and the sensitivity of ruin and time to ruin to hazard statistical properties. We also show how tree strategies to cope with hazards can affect their long-term reserves and the probability of ruin.
Davide Faranda, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Adnane Hamid, Giulia Carella, Cedric Ngoungue Langue, Soulivanh Thao, and Valerie Gautard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 423–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, 2021
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Machine learning approaches are spreading rapidly in climate sciences. They are of great help in many practical situations where using the underlying equations is difficult because of the limitation in computational power. Here we use a systematic approach to investigate the limitations of the popular echo state network algorithms used to forecast the long-term behaviour of chaotic systems, such as the weather. Our results show that noise and intermittency greatly affect the performances.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
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The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Peter Pfleiderer, Aglaé Jézéquel, Juliette Legrand, Natacha Legrix, Iason Markantonis, Edoardo Vignotto, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021, 2021
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In 2016, northern France experienced an unprecedented wheat crop loss. This crop loss was likely due to an extremely warm December 2015 and abnormally high precipitation during the following spring season. Using stochastic weather generators we investigate how severe the metrological conditions leading to the crop loss could be in current climate conditions. We find that December temperatures were close to the plausible maximum but that considerably wetter springs would be possible.
Mathieu Vrac and Soulivanh Thao
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5367–5387, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5367-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5367-2020, 2020
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We propose a multivariate bias correction (MBC) method to adjust the spatial and/or inter-variable properties of climate simulations, while also accounting for their temporal dependences (e.g., autocorrelations).
It consists on a method reordering the ranks of the time series according to their multivariate distance to a reference time series.
Results show that temporal correlations are improved while spatial and inter-variable correlations are still satisfactorily corrected.
Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons and Davide Faranda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-352, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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The objective motivating this study is the assessment of the impacts of winter climate extremes, which requires accurate simulation of snowfall. However, climate simulation models contain physical approximations, which result in biases that must be corrected using past data as a reference. We show how to exploit simulated temperature and precipitation to estimate snowfall from already bias-corrected variables, without requiring the elaboration of complex, multivariate bias adjustment techniques.
Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 445–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, 2020
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Despite the global temperature rise caused by anthropogenic emissions, we still observe heavy snowfalls that cause casualties, transport disruptions and energy supply problems. The goal of this paper is to investigate recent trends in snowfalls from reanalysis and observational datasets. The analysis shows an evident discrepancy between trends in average and extreme snowfalls. The latter can only be explained by looking at atmospheric circulation.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020
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In this paper we quantify Mediterranean compound temperature and precipitation dynamical extremes (CDEs) over the 1979–2018 period. The strength of the temperature–precipitation coupling during summer increased and is driven by surface warming. We also link the CDEs to compound hot–dry and cold–wet events during summer and winter respectively.
Florentin Breton, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, and Aglaé Jézéquel
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-26, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We investigate North Atlantic weather seasonality over 1979–2100 by classifying year-round fields of 500 hPa geopotential height from one reanalysis dataset and 12 climate models. Generally, models have seasonal structures similar to the reanalyses. Historical winter (summer) conditions decrease (increase), due to uniform Z500 increase (i.e. uniform warming). However, relative to the increasing Z500 seasonal cycle, future seasonality (spatial patterns, seasonal cycle) appears almost stationary.
Pascal Yiou and Aglaé Jézéquel
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 763–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-763-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-763-2020, 2020
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This paper presents an adaptation of a method of "importance sampling" to simulate large ensembles of extreme heat waves (i.e., the most extreme heat waves that could be), given a fixed returned period. We illustrate how this algorithm works for European heat waves and investigate the atmospheric features of such ensembles of events. We argue that such an algorithm can be used to simulate other types of events, including cold spells or prolonged episodes of precipitation.
Giulia Carella, Mathieu Vrac, Hélène Brogniez, Pascal Yiou, and Hélène Chepfer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1-2020, 2020
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Observations of relative humidity for ice clouds over the tropical oceans from a passive microwave sounder are downscaled by incorporating the high-resolution variability derived from simultaneous co-located cloud profiles from a lidar. By providing a method to generate pseudo-observations of relative humidity at high spatial resolution, this work will help revisit some of the current key barriers in atmospheric science.
Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Gabriele Messori, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, 2019
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We show how the complex dynamics of the jet stream at midlatitude can be described by a simple mathematical model. We match the properties of the model to those obtained by the jet data derived from observations.
Valerio Lembo, Frank Lunkeit, and Valerio Lucarini
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3805–3834, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3805-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3805-2019, 2019
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The Thermodynamic Diagnostic Tool (TheDiaTo v1.0) is a collection of diagnostics for the study of the thermodynamics of the climate system in climate models. This is fundamental in order to understand where the imbalances affecting climate projections come from and also to allow for easy comparison of different scenarios and atmospheric regimes. The tool is currently being developed for the assessment of models that are part of the next phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019
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The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
Pascal Yiou and Céline Déandréis
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 723–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-723-2019, 2019
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We devised a system that simulates large ensembles of forecasts for European temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. This system is based on a stochastic weather generator that samples analogs of SLP. This paper provides statistical tests of temperature and NAO forecasts for timescales of days to months. We argue that the forecast skill of the system is significantly positive and could be used as a baseline for numerical weather forecast.
Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, Philippe Naveau, and Pascal Yiou
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 773–786, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-773-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-773-2019, 2019
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Bias correction methods are used to calibrate climate model outputs with respect to observations. In this article, a non-stationary, multivariate and stochastic bias correction method is developed based on optimal transport, accounting for inter-site and inter-variable correlations. Optimal transport allows us to construct a joint distribution that minimizes energy spent in bias correction. Our methodology is tested on precipitation and temperatures over 12 locations in southern France.
Claire Waelbroeck, Sylvain Pichat, Evelyn Böhm, Bryan C. Lougheed, Davide Faranda, Mathieu Vrac, Lise Missiaen, Natalia Vazquez Riveiros, Pierre Burckel, Jörg Lippold, Helge W. Arz, Trond Dokken, François Thil, and Arnaud Dapoigny
Clim. Past, 14, 1315–1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1315-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1315-2018, 2018
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Recording the precise timing and sequence of events is essential for understanding rapid climate changes and improving climate model predictive skills. Here, we precisely assess the relative timing between ocean and atmospheric changes, both recorded in the same deep-sea core over the last 45 kyr. We show that decreased mid-depth water mass transport in the western equatorial Atlantic preceded increased rainfall over the adjacent continent by 120 to 980 yr, depending on the type of climate event.
Tamás Bódai, Valerio Lucarini, and Frank Lunkeit
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-30, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We establish a framework to conduct a scenario analysis of the best possible outcomes under geoengineering. The scenarios may consist of scenarios of greenhouse gas emission the choice of the quantity that we want to keep under control. The motivation is the desire of an efficient way of assessing the side-effects of geoengineering, concerning the unwanted and uncontrolled changes. Countering CO2 emission by modulating insolation, we find considerable changes in local temperatures or rainfall.
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, and Pascal Yiou
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 713–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, 2017
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We study the dynamical properties of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation by analysing the sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency field over the period 1948–2013. The metrics are linked to the predictability and the persistence of the atmospheric flows. We study the dependence on the seasonal cycle and the fields corresponding to maxima and minima of the dynamical indicators.
Yoann Robin, Pascal Yiou, and Philippe Naveau
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 393–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-393-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-393-2017, 2017
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If climate is viewed as a chaotic dynamical system, its trajectories yield on an object called an attractor. Being perturbed by an external forcing, this attractor could be modified. With Wasserstein distance, we estimate on a derived Lorenz model the impact of a forcing similar to climate change. Our approach appears to work with small data sizes. We have obtained a methodology quantifying the deformation of well-known attractors, coherent with the size of data available.
Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Philippe Naveau, Frederike E. L. Otto, Robert Vautard, and Mathieu Vrac
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 17–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017, 2017
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The attribution of classes of extreme events, such as heavy precipitation or heatwaves, relies on the estimate of small probabilities (with and without climate change). Such events are connected to the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This paper links such probabilities with properties of the atmospheric circulation by using a Bayesian decomposition. We test this decomposition on a case of extreme precipitation in the UK, in January 2014.
Davide Faranda and Dimitri Defrance
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 517–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-517-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-517-2016, 2016
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We introduce a general technique to detect a climate change signal in the coherent and turbulent components of the atmospheric circulation. Our analysis suggests that the coherent components (atmospheric waves, long-term oscillations) will experience the greatest changes in future climate, proportionally to the greenhouse gas emission scenario considered.
M.-A. Knietzsch, A. Schröder, V. Lucarini, and F. Lunkeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 591–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-591-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-591-2015, 2015
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A general circulation model with an aquaplanet setup is used to study the impact of changes in the oceanic heat transport (OHT) on the atmospheric circulation. The atmosphere counterbalances the imposed changes in OHT. A stronger OHT leads to a decline in the intensity and a poleward shift of the maxima of both the Hadley and Ferrel cells. The efficiency of the climate machine, the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle and the material entropy production of the system decline with increased OHT.
M. Mihelich, D. Faranda, B. Dubrulle, and D. Paillard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 187–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-187-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-187-2015, 2015
M.-S. Deroche, M. Choux, F. Codron, and P. Yiou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 981–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-981-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-981-2014, 2014
P. Yiou, M. Boichu, R. Vautard, M. Vrac, S. Jourdain, E. Garnier, F. Fluteau, and L. Menut
Clim. Past, 10, 797–809, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-797-2014, 2014
P. Yiou
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 531–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-531-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-531-2014, 2014
P. B. Holden, N. R. Edwards, P. H. Garthwaite, K. Fraedrich, F. Lunkeit, E. Kirk, M. Labriet, A. Kanudia, and F. Babonneau
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 433–451, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-433-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-433-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Earth system change: climate scenarios
Countries most exposed to individual and concurrent extremes and near-permanent extreme conditions at different global warming levels
Direct and indirect application of univariate and multivariate bias corrections on heat-stress indices based on multiple regional-climate-model simulations
Overview: The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR)
The implications of maintaining Earth's hemispheric albedo symmetry for shortwave radiative feedbacks
Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change
Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021
Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations
STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations
An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint
Combining machine learning and SMILEs to classify, better understand, and project changes in ENSO events
Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on monsoon systems
Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention
Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios
Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary
The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections
Climate change signal in the ocean circulation of the Tyrrhenian Sea
Oceanographic regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea until 2100
Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability
Storylines of weather-induced crop failure events under climate change
Weather extremes over Europe under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming from HAPPI regional climate ensemble simulations
Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models
Seasonal discharge response to temperature-driven changes in evaporation and snow processes in the Rhine Basin
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Historical and future contributions of inland waters to the Congo Basin carbon balance
Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa
Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe
A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Storylines of the 2018 Northern Hemisphere heatwave at pre-industrial and higher global warming levels
ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments
Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals
Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6
Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations
Differing precipitation response between solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal due to fast and slow components
Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
Heat stress risk in European dairy cattle husbandry under different climate change scenarios – uncertainties and potential impacts
Changes in statistical distributions of sub-daily surface temperatures and wind speed
The economically optimal warming limit of the planet
Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi
Tracking the moisture transport from the Pacific towards Central and northern South America since the late 19th century
Freshwater resources under success and failure of the Paris climate agreement
The response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from climate projections
The effect of overshooting 1.5 °C global warming on the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet
ESD Ideas: a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WGI to the assessment and communication of climate change risks
The point of no return for climate action: effects of climate uncertainty and risk tolerance
Varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in central Europe
Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5 °C global warming target
Fulden Batibeniz, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 485–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-485-2023, 2023
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We study single and concurrent heatwaves, droughts, precipitation, and wind extremes. Globally, these extremes become more frequent and affect larger land areas under future warming, with several countries experiencing extreme events every single month. Concurrent heatwaves–droughts (precipitation–wind) are projected to increase the most in mid–high-latitude countries (tropics). Every mitigation action to avoid further warming will reduce the number of people exposed to extreme weather events.
Liying Qiu, Eun-Soon Im, Seung-Ki Min, Yeon-Hee Kim, Dong-Hyun Cha, Seok-Woo Shin, Joong-Bae Ahn, Eun-Chul Chang, and Young-Hwa Byun
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 507–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-507-2023, 2023
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This study evaluates four bias correction methods (three univariate and one multivariate) for correcting multivariate heat-stress indices. We show that the multivariate method can benefit the indirect correction that first adjusts individual components before index calculation, and its advantage is more evident for indices relying equally on multiple drivers. Meanwhile, the direct correction of heat-stress indices by the univariate quantile delta mapping approach also has comparable performance.
H. E. Markus Meier, Marcus Reckermann, Joakim Langner, Ben Smith, and Ira Didenkulova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 519–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, 2023
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The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports summarise the current state of knowledge on Earth system science in the Baltic Sea region. The 10 review articles focus on the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Some highlights of the results are presented here.
Aiden R. Jönsson and Frida A.-M. Bender
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 345–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-345-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-345-2023, 2023
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The Earth has nearly the same mean albedo in both hemispheres, a feature not well replicated by climate models. Global warming causes changes in surface and cloud properties that affect albedo and that feed back into the warming. We show that models predict more darkening due to ice loss in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere in response to increasing CO2 concentrations. This is, to varying degrees, counteracted by changes in cloud cover, with implications for cloud feedback on climate.
Iris Elisabeth de Vries, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline Greene Pendergrass, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 81–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023, 2023
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Precipitation change is an important consequence of climate change, but it is hard to detect and quantify. Our intuitive method yields robust and interpretable detection of forced precipitation change in three observational datasets for global mean and extreme precipitation, but the different observational datasets show different magnitudes of forced change. Assessment and reduction of uncertainties surrounding forced precipitation change are important for future projections and adaptation.
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
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In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1667–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022, 2022
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Despite little evidence of regional Amazon rainforest dieback, many localised abrupt dieback events are observed in the latest state-of-the-art global climate models under anthropogenic climate change. The detected dieback events would still cause severe consequences for local communities and ecosystems. This study suggests that 7 ± 5 % of the northern South America region would experience abrupt downward shifts in vegetation carbon for every degree of global warming past 1.5 °C.
Jörg Schwinger, Ali Asaadi, Norman Julius Steinert, and Hanna Lee
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1641–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, 2022
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We test whether climate change can be partially reversed if CO2 is removed from the atmosphere to compensate for too large past and near-term emissions by using idealized model simulations of overshoot pathways. On a timescale of 100 years, we find a high degree of reversibility if the overshoot size remains small, and we do not find tipping points even for intense overshoots. We caution that current Earth system models are most likely not able to skilfully model tipping points in ecosystems.
Claudia Tebaldi, Abigail Snyder, and Kalyn Dorheim
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1557–1609, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1557-2022, 2022
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Impact modelers need many future scenarios to characterize the consequences of climate change. The climate modeling community cannot fully meet this need because of the computational cost of climate models. Emulators have fallen short of providing the entire range of inputs that modern impact models require. Our proposal, STITCHES, meets these demands in a comprehensive way and may thus support a fully integrated impact research effort and save resources for the climate modeling enterprise.
Aurélien Ribes, Julien Boé, Saïd Qasmi, Brigitte Dubuisson, Hervé Douville, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1397–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022, 2022
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We use a novel statistical method to combine climate simulations and observations, and we deliver an updated assessment of past and future warming over France. As a key result, we find that the warming over that region was underestimated in previous multi-model ensembles by up to 50 %. We also assess the contribution of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other factors to the observed warming, as well as the impact on the seasonal temperature cycle, and we discuss implications for climate services.
Nicola Maher, Thibault P. Tabarin, and Sebastian Milinski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1289–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1289-2022, 2022
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El Niño events occur as two broad types: eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP). EP and CP events differ in strength, evolution, and in their impacts. In this study we create a new machine learning classifier to identify the two types of El Niño events using observed sea surface temperature data. We apply our new classifier to climate models and show that CP events are unlikely to change in frequency or strength under a warming climate, with model disagreement for EP events.
Alizée Chemison, Dimitri Defrance, Gilles Ramstein, and Cyril Caminade
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1259–1287, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1259-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1259-2022, 2022
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We study the impact of a rapid melting of the ice sheets on monsoon systems during the 21st century. The impact of a partial Antarctica melting is moderate. Conversely, Greenland melting slows down the oceanic Atlantic circulation and changes winds, temperature and pressure patterns, resulting in a southward shift of the tropical rain belt over Africa and America. The seasonality, duration and intensity of rainfall events are affected, with potential severe impacts on vulnerable populations.
Mari R. Tye, Katherine Dagon, Maria J. Molina, Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1233–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, 2022
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We examined the potential effect of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on extreme temperature and precipitation. SAI may cause daytime temperatures to cool but nighttime to warm. Daytime cooling may occur in all seasons across the globe, with the largest decreases in summer. In contrast, nighttime warming may be greatest at high latitudes in winter. SAI may reduce the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. The combined changes may exacerbate drying over parts of the global south.
Charles D. Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsay, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 885–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, 2022
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We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300 using six models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.
Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Cyril Dutheil, H. E. Markus Meier, and Dmitry V. Sein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 613–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric rivers transport high amounts of water from subtropical regions to Europe. They are an important driver of heavy precipitation and flooding. Their response to a warmer future climate in Europe has so far been assessed only by global climate models. In this study, we apply for the first time a high-resolution regional climate model that allow to better resolve and understand the fate of atmospheric rivers over Europe.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
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Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Josep Cos, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Martin Jury, Raül Marcos, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, and Margarida Samsó
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 321–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-321-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-321-2022, 2022
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The Mediterranean has been identified as being more affected by climate change than other regions. We find that amplified warming during summer and annual precipitation declines are expected for the 21st century and that the magnitude of the changes will mainly depend on greenhouse gas emissions. By applying a method giving more importance to models with greater performance and independence, we find that the differences between the last two community modelling efforts are reduced in the region.
Alba de la Vara, Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Alfredo Izquierdo, Dmitry V. Sein, and William Cabos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 303–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-303-2022, 2022
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We study with the regionally coupled climate model ROM the impact of climate change on the Tyrrhenian Sea circulation, as well as the possible mechanisms and consequences in the NW Mediterranean Sea. Our results show a shift towards the summer circulation pattern by the end of the century. Also, water flowing via the Corsica Channel is more stratified and smaller in volume. Both factors may contribute to the interruption of deep water formation in the Gulf of Lions in the future.
H. E. Markus Meier, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Cyril Dutheil, Florian Börgel, Kseniia Safonova, Ole B. Christensen, and Erik Kjellström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022
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In addition to environmental pressures such as eutrophication, overfishing and contaminants, climate change is believed to have an important impact on the marine environment in the future, and marine management should consider the related risks. Hence, we have compared and assessed available scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea and found considerable uncertainties of the projections caused by the underlying assumptions and model biases, in particular for the water and biogeochemical cycles.
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla R. Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamás Bódai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who M. Kim, Jean-François Lamarque, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, and Stephen G. Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, 2021
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A large ensemble of simulations with 100 members has been conducted with the state-of-the-art CESM2 Earth system model, using historical and SSP3-7.0 forcing. Our main finding is that there are significant changes in the variance of the Earth system in response to anthropogenic forcing, with these changes spanning a broad range of variables important to impacts for human populations and ecosystems.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Christian Folberth, Juraj Balkovic, and Bart van den Hurk
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1503–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, 2021
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Agriculture is sensitive to weather conditions and to climate change. We identify the weather conditions linked to soybean failures and explore changes related to climate change. Additionally, we build future versions of a historical extreme season under future climate scenarios. Results show that soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. Future events with similar physical conditions to the extreme season are not expected to increase, but events with similar impacts are.
Kevin Sieck, Christine Nam, Laurens M. Bouwer, Diana Rechid, and Daniela Jacob
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 457–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021, 2021
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This paper presents new estimates of future extreme weather in Europe, including extreme heat, extreme rainfall and meteorological drought. These new estimates were achieved by repeating model calculations many times, thereby reducing uncertainties of these rare events at low levels of global warming at 1.5 and 2 °C above
pre-industrial temperature levels. These results are important, as they help to assess which weather extremes could increase at moderate warming levels and where.
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021
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All state-of-the-art global climate models that contributed to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a robust increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall that is even stronger than in the previous intercomparison (CMIP5). Furthermore, they show an increase in the year-to-year variability of this seasonal rainfall that crucially influences the livelihood of more than 1 billion people in India.
Joost Buitink, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021, 2021
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Higher temperatures influence both evaporation and snow processes. These two processes have a large effect on discharge but have distinct roles during different seasons. In this study, we study how higher temperatures affect the discharge via changed evaporation and snow dynamics. Higher temperatures lead to enhanced evaporation but increased melt from glaciers, overall lowering the discharge. During the snowmelt season, discharge was reduced further due to the earlier depletion of snow.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Adam Hastie, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Fabrice Papa, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, 2021
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We used a model of the Congo Basin to investigate the transfer of carbon (C) from land (vegetation and soils) to inland waters. We estimate that leaching of C to inland waters, emissions of CO2 from the water surface, and the export of C to the coast have all increased over the last century, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change. We predict that these trends may continue through the 21st century and call for long-term monitoring of these fluxes.
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021
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Motivated by the possible influence of rising temperatures, this study synthesises results from observations and climate models to explore trends (1900–2018) in eastern African (EA) drought measures. However, no discernible trends are found in annual soil moisture or precipitation. Positive trends in potential evaporation indicate that for irrigated regions more water is now required to counteract increased evaporation. Precipitation deficit is, however, the most useful indicator of EA drought.
Fabian von Trentini, Emma E. Aalbers, Erich M. Fischer, and Ralf Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1013–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, 2020
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We compare the inter-annual variability of three single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), downscaled with three regional climate models over Europe for seasonal temperature and precipitation, the number of heatwaves, and maximum length of dry periods. They all show good consistency with observational data. The magnitude of variability and the future development are similar in many cases. In general, variability increases for summer indicators and decreases for winter indicators.
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Camilla W. Stjern, Zbigniew Klimont, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, 2020
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Achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals requires both near-zero levels of long-lived greenhouse gases and deep cuts in emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Here we quantify the near- and long-term global temperature impacts of emissions of individual SLCFs and CO2 from 7 economic sectors in 13 regions in order to provide the detailed knowledge needed to design efficient mitigation strategies at the sectoral and regional levels.
Kathrin Wehrli, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 855–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-855-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-855-2020, 2020
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The 2018 summer was unusually hot for large areas in the Northern Hemisphere, and heatwaves on three continents led to major impacts on agriculture and society. This study investigates storylines for the extreme 2018 summer, given the observed atmospheric circulation but different levels of background global warming. The results reveal a strong contribution by the present-day level of global warming and show a dramatic outlook for similar events in a warmer climate.
Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 751–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020, 2020
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Policy making on climate change routinely employs socioeconomic scenarios to sample the uncertainty in future forcing of the climate system, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has not employed similar discrete scenarios to sample the uncertainty in the global climate response. Here, we argue that to enable risk assessments and development of robust policies this gap should be addressed, and we propose a simple methodology.
Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 697–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, 2020
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Current global mitigation ambition in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, we address the question of what level of collective ambition is pivotal regarding the Paris Agreement goals. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios.
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
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This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, Nicola Maher, Jochem Marotzke, Erich M. Fischer, Lukas Brunner, Reto Knutti, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, 2020
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Projections of climate change are uncertain because climate models are imperfect, future greenhouse gases emissions are unknown and climate is to some extent chaotic. To partition and understand these sources of uncertainty and make the best use of climate projections, large ensembles with multiple climate models are needed. Such ensembles now exist in a public data archive. We provide several novel applications focused on global and regional temperature and precipitation projections.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020
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This study presents a large novel data set of climate model simulations for central Europe covering the years 1900–2028 at a 25 km resolution. The focus is on intensive areal precipitation values. The data set is validated against observations using different statistical approaches. The results reveal an adequate quality in a statistical sense as well as some long-term variability with phases of increased and decreased heavy precipitation. The predictions of the near future show continuity.
Anton Laakso, Peter K. Snyder, Stefan Liess, Antti-Ilari Partanen, and Dylan B. Millet
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 415–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-415-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-415-2020, 2020
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Geoengineering techniques have been proposed to prevent climate warming in the event of insufficient greenhouse gas emission reductions. Simultaneously, these techniques have an impact on precipitation, which depends on the techniques used, geoengineering magnitude, and background circumstances. We separated the independent and dependent components of precipitation responses to temperature, which were then used to explain the precipitation changes in the studied climate model simulations.
Monika J. Barcikowska, Sarah B. Kapnick, Lakshmi Krishnamurty, Simone Russo, Annalisa Cherchi, and Chris K. Folland
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 161–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020, 2020
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Sabrina Hempel, Christoph Menz, Severino Pinto, Elena Galán, David Janke, Fernando Estellés, Theresa Müschner-Siemens, Xiaoshuai Wang, Julia Heinicke, Guoqiang Zhang, Barbara Amon, Agustín del Prado, and Thomas Amon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 859–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-859-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-859-2019, 2019
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Decreasing humidity and increasing wind speed regionally alleviate the heat load on farm animals, but future temperature rise considerably increases the heat stress risk. Livestock housed in open barns (or on pastures), such as dairy cattle, is particularly vulnerable. Without adaptation, heat waves will considerably reduce the gross margin of a livestock producer. Negative effects on productivity, health and animal welfare as well as increasing methane and ammonia emissions are expected.
Robert J. H. Dunn, Kate M. Willett, and David E. Parker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 765–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-765-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-765-2019, 2019
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Using a sub-daily dataset of in situ observations, we have performed a study to see how the distributions of temperatures and wind speeds have changed over the last 45 years. Changes in the location or shape of these distributions show how extreme temperatures or wind speeds have changed. Our results show that cool extremes are warming more rapidly than warm ones in high latitudes but that in other parts of the world the opposite is true.
Falko Ueckerdt, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Leonie Wenz, Gunnar Luderer, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 741–763, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, 2019
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We compute the global mean temperature increase at which the costs from climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation are minimal. This temperature is computed robustly around 2 degrees of global warming across a wide range of normative assumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion.
Lise S. Graff, Trond Iversen, Ingo Bethke, Jens B. Debernard, Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Alf Kirkevåg, Camille Li, and Dirk J. L. Olivié
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 569–598, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019, 2019
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Differences between a 1.5 and a 2.0 °C warmer global climate than 1850 conditions are discussed based on a suite of global atmosphere-only, fully coupled, and slab-ocean runs with the Norwegian Earth System Model. Responses, such as the Arctic amplification of global warming, are stronger with the fully coupled and slab-ocean configurations. While ice-free Arctic summers are rare under 1.5 °C warming in the slab-ocean runs, they are estimated to occur 18 % of the time under 2.0 °C warming.
David Gallego, Ricardo García-Herrera, Francisco de Paula Gómez-Delgado, Paulina Ordoñez-Perez, and Pedro Ribera
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 319–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-319-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-319-2019, 2019
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By analysing old wind direction observations taken aboard sailing ships, it has been possible to build an index quantifying the moisture transport from the equatorial Pacific into large areas of Central America and northern South America starting in the late 19th century. This transport is deeply related to a low-level jet known as the Choco jet. Our results suggest that the seasonal distribution of the precipitation associated with this transport could have changed over the time.
Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Mats Lannerstad, Dieter Gerten, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 205–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-205-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-205-2019, 2019
Filippo Giorgi, Francesca Raffaele, and Erika Coppola
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 73–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-73-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-73-2019, 2019
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The paper revisits the critical issue of precipitation characteristics in response to global warming through a new analysis of global and regional climate projections and a summary of previous work. Robust responses are identified and the underlying processes investigated. Examples of applications are given, such as the evaluation of risks associated with extremes. The paper, solicited by the EGU executive office, is based on the 2018 EGU Alexander von Humboldt medal lecture by Filippo Giorgi.
Martin Rückamp, Ulrike Falk, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, and Angelika Humbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1169–1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018, 2018
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Sea-level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Based on the efforts of COP21 to limit global warming to 2.0 °C by the end of the 21st century (Paris Agreement), we simulate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level change. The projected sea-level rise ranges between 21–38 mm by 2100
and 36–85 mm by 2300. Our results indicate that uncertainties in the projections stem from the underlying climate data.
Rowan T. Sutton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1155–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1155-2018, 2018
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The purpose of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to provide policy-relevant assessments of the scientific evidence about climate change. Policymaking necessarily involves risk assessments, so it is important that IPCC reports are designed accordingly. This paper proposes a specific idea, illustrated with examples, to improve the contribution of IPCC Working Group I to informing climate risk assessments.
Matthias Aengenheyster, Qing Yi Feng, Frederick van der Ploeg, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1085–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018, 2018
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We determine the point of no return (PNR) for climate change, which is the latest year to take action to reduce greenhouse gases to stay, with a certain probability, within thresholds set by the Paris Agreement. For a 67 % probability and a 2 K threshold, the PNR is the year 2035 when the share of renewable energy rises by 2 % per year. We show the impact on the PNR of the speed by which emissions are cut, the risk tolerance, climate uncertainties and the potential for negative emissions.
Martha M. Vogel, Jakob Zscheischler, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1107–1125, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018, 2018
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Climate change projections of temperature extremes are particularly uncertain in central Europe. We demonstrate that varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks in current climate models leads to an enhancement of model differences; thus, they can explain the large uncertainties in extreme temperature projections. Using an observation-based constraint, we show that the strong drying and large increase in temperatures exhibited by models on the hottest day in central Europe are highly unlikely.
Jie Chen, Yujie Liu, Tao Pan, Yanhua Liu, Fubao Sun, and Quansheng Ge
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1097–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018, 2018
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Results show that an additional 6.97 million people will be exposed to droughts in China under a 1.5 ºC target relative to reference period, mostly in the east of China. Demographic change is the primary contributor to exposure. Moderate droughts contribute the most to exposure among 3 grades of drought. Our simulations suggest that drought impact on people will continue to be a large threat to China under the 1.5 ºC target. It will be helpful in guiding adaptation and mitigation strategies.
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Short summary
Climate change is already affecting weather extremes. In a warming climate, we will expect the cold spells to decrease in frequency and intensity. Our analysis shows that the frequency of circulation patterns leading to snowy cold-spell events over Italy will not decrease under business-as-usual emission scenarios, although the associated events may not lead to cold conditions in the warmer scenarios.
Climate change is already affecting weather extremes. In a warming climate, we will expect the...
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