Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy

D'Errico, Miriam; Pons, Flavio; Yiou, Pascal; Tao, Soulivanh; Nardini, Cesare; Lunkeit, Frank; Faranda, Davide

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022

Articles | Volume 13, issue 2

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Articles | Volume 13, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022

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Understanding compound weather and climate events and related...

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022

Articles | Volume 13, issue 2

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Research article

02 Jun 2022

Research article |

| 02 Jun 2022

Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy

Miriam D'Errico, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Soulivanh Tao, Cesare Nardini, Frank Lunkeit, and Davide Faranda

Miriam D'Errico

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0992-9372

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France

Flavio Pons

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9169-9475

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France

Pascal Yiou

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8534-5355

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France

Soulivanh Tao

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France

Cesare Nardini

Service de Physique de l'État Condensé, CNRS UMR 3680, CEA-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Frank Lunkeit

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7854-8282

Meteorological Institute, CEN, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany

Davide Faranda

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

davide.faranda@lsce.ipsl.fr

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5001-5698

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France

London Mathematical Laboratory, 8 Margravine Gardens, London, W6 8RH, UK

LMD/IPSL, Ecole Normale Superieure, PSL research University, Paris, France

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PDF: 620
XML: 87
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BibTeX: 90
EndNote: 72

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Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 17 Sep 2020)

Total article views: 2,878 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
2,508	302	68	2,878	59	43

HTML: 2,508
PDF: 302
XML: 68
Total: 2,878
BibTeX: 59
EndNote: 43

Views and downloads (calculated since 02 Jun 2022)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2022	409	37	5	451
Jul 2022	218	9	1	228
Aug 2022	123	6	0	129
Sep 2022	87	11	0	98
Oct 2022	97	16	3	116
Nov 2022	96	6	0	102
Dec 2022	78	9	0	87
Jan 2023	37	5	0	42
Feb 2023	23	14	0	37
Mar 2023	33	10	0	43
Apr 2023	17	9	0	26
May 2023	14	12	0	26
Jun 2023	17	2	2	21
Jul 2023	15	9	0	24
Aug 2023	14	3	1	18
Sep 2023	11	6	0	17
Oct 2023	17	4	0	21
Nov 2023	10	0	10
Dec 2023	27	2	1	30
Jan 2024	26	15	0	41
Feb 2024	22	10	1	33
Mar 2024	27	13	2	42
Apr 2024	41	6	11	58
May 2024	43	4	2	49
Jun 2024	124	13	5	142
Jul 2024	556	9	8	573
Aug 2024	67	10	12	89
Sep 2024	41	12	6	59
Oct 2024	35	7	2	44
Nov 2024	33	4	4	41
Dec 2024	25	9	1	35
Jan 2025	56	10	1	67
Feb 2025	44	6	0	50
Mar 2025	25	4	0	29

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 02 Jun 2022)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2022	409	37	5	451
Jul 2022	218	9	1	228
Aug 2022	123	6	0	129
Sep 2022	87	11	0	98
Oct 2022	97	16	3	116
Nov 2022	96	6	0	102
Dec 2022	78	9	0	87
Jan 2023	37	5	0	42
Feb 2023	23	14	0	37
Mar 2023	33	10	0	43
Apr 2023	17	9	0	26
May 2023	14	12	0	26
Jun 2023	17	2	2	21
Jul 2023	15	9	0	24
Aug 2023	14	3	1	18
Sep 2023	11	6	0	17
Oct 2023	17	4	0	21
Nov 2023	10	0	10
Dec 2023	27	2	1	30
Jan 2024	26	15	0	41
Feb 2024	22	10	1	33
Mar 2024	27	13	2	42
Apr 2024	41	6	11	58
May 2024	43	4	2	49
Jun 2024	124	13	5	142
Jul 2024	556	9	8	573
Aug 2024	67	10	12	89
Sep 2024	41	12	6	59
Oct 2024	35	7	2	44
Nov 2024	33	4	4	41
Dec 2024	25	9	1	35
Jan 2025	56	10	1	67
Feb 2025	44	6	0	50
Mar 2025	25	4	0	29

Total article views: 1,212 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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875	318	19	1,212	31	29

HTML: 875
PDF: 318
XML: 19
Total: 1,212
BibTeX: 31
EndNote: 29

Views and downloads (calculated since 17 Sep 2020)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2022	409	37	5	451
Jul 2022	218	9	1	228
Aug 2022	123	6	0	129
Sep 2022	87	11	0	98
Oct 2022	97	16	3	116
Nov 2022	96	6	0	102
Dec 2022	78	9	0	87
Jan 2023	37	5	0	42
Feb 2023	23	14	0	37
Mar 2023	33	10	0	43
Apr 2023	17	9	0	26
May 2023	14	12	0	26
Jun 2023	17	2	2	21
Jul 2023	15	9	0	24
Aug 2023	14	3	1	18
Sep 2023	11	6	0	17
Oct 2023	17	4	0	21
Nov 2023	10	0	10
Dec 2023	27	2	1	30
Jan 2024	26	15	0	41
Feb 2024	22	10	1	33
Mar 2024	27	13	2	42
Apr 2024	41	6	11	58
May 2024	43	4	2	49
Jun 2024	124	13	5	142
Jul 2024	556	9	8	573
Aug 2024	67	10	12	89
Sep 2024	41	12	6	59
Oct 2024	35	7	2	44
Nov 2024	33	4	4	41
Dec 2024	25	9	1	35
Jan 2025	56	10	1	67
Feb 2025	44	6	0	50
Mar 2025	25	4	0	29

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 17 Sep 2020)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2022	409	37	5	451
Jul 2022	218	9	1	228
Aug 2022	123	6	0	129
Sep 2022	87	11	0	98
Oct 2022	97	16	3	116
Nov 2022	96	6	0	102
Dec 2022	78	9	0	87
Jan 2023	37	5	0	42
Feb 2023	23	14	0	37
Mar 2023	33	10	0	43
Apr 2023	17	9	0	26
May 2023	14	12	0	26
Jun 2023	17	2	2	21
Jul 2023	15	9	0	24
Aug 2023	14	3	1	18
Sep 2023	11	6	0	17
Oct 2023	17	4	0	21
Nov 2023	10	0	10
Dec 2023	27	2	1	30
Jan 2024	26	15	0	41
Feb 2024	22	10	1	33
Mar 2024	27	13	2	42
Apr 2024	41	6	11	58
May 2024	43	4	2	49
Jun 2024	124	13	5	142
Jul 2024	556	9	8	573
Aug 2024	67	10	12	89
Sep 2024	41	12	6	59
Oct 2024	35	7	2	44
Nov 2024	33	4	4	41
Dec 2024	25	9	1	35
Jan 2025	56	10	1	67
Feb 2025	44	6	0	50
Mar 2025	25	4	0	29

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Show all Final revised paper only Preprint only

Total article views: 4,090 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 3,742 with geography defined and 348 with unknown origin.

Total article views: 2,878 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 2,755 with geography defined and 123 with unknown origin.

Total article views: 1,212 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 987 with geography defined and 225 with unknown origin.

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	1300	31
China	2	821	20
Germany	3	331	8
France	4	305	7
Italy	5	195	4

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	960	33
China	2	776	26
France	3	223	7
Germany	4	182	6
Italy	5	169	5

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	340	28
Germany	2	149	12
France	3	82	6
India	4	56	4
China	5	45	3


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1300


Total:	0
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960


Total:	0
HTML:	0
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340

Cited

Show all Final revised paper only Preprint only

14 citations as recorded by crossref.

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021 D. Faranda et al. 10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022
Cold snaps lead to a 5-fold increase or a 3-fold decrease in disease proliferation depending on the baseline temperature N. McCartan et al. 10.1186/s12915-024-02041-6
The Cold Snaps of January 2022 in the Euro-Mediterranean Region in a Warming Climate: In Association with Atmospheric Blocking and the Positive North Atlantic Oscillation M. Demirtaş 10.1007/s00024-023-03297-9
Future winter snowfall and extreme snow events in the Pyrenees J. Bonsoms et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107912
The impact of circulation types and their changing thermal properties on the probability of days with snowfall and rainfall in Poland, 1966–2020 E. Łupikasza et al. 10.14746/quageo-2024-0025
Large deviations in chaotic systems: Exact results and dynamical phase transition N. Smith 10.1103/PhysRevE.106.L042202
Historical snow measurements in the central and southern Apennine Mountains: climatology, variability, and trend V. Capozzi et al. 10.5194/tc-19-565-2025
Temporal trends in temperature-related mortality and evidence for maladaptation to heat and cold in the Eastern Mediterranean region K. Psistaki et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173899
Data-driven analysis of annual rain distributions Y. Ashkenazy & N. Smith 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.6.023187
Modelling snowfall in southern Italy: a historical perspective in the Benevento Valley (1645-2018) N. Diodato et al. 10.3354/cr01681
THE HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE LVIV REGION . Семергей-Чумаченко А. Б. et al. 10.31435/rsglobal_ws/30122022/7908
An attempt to explain recent changes in European snowfall extremes D. Faranda 10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020
Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019 E. Le Roux et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021
The anomalously cold January 2017 in the south‐eastern Europe in a warming climate M. Demirtaş 10.1002/joc.7574

9 citations as recorded by crossref.

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021 D. Faranda et al. 10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022
Cold snaps lead to a 5-fold increase or a 3-fold decrease in disease proliferation depending on the baseline temperature N. McCartan et al. 10.1186/s12915-024-02041-6
The Cold Snaps of January 2022 in the Euro-Mediterranean Region in a Warming Climate: In Association with Atmospheric Blocking and the Positive North Atlantic Oscillation M. Demirtaş 10.1007/s00024-023-03297-9
Future winter snowfall and extreme snow events in the Pyrenees J. Bonsoms et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.107912
The impact of circulation types and their changing thermal properties on the probability of days with snowfall and rainfall in Poland, 1966–2020 E. Łupikasza et al. 10.14746/quageo-2024-0025
Large deviations in chaotic systems: Exact results and dynamical phase transition N. Smith 10.1103/PhysRevE.106.L042202
Historical snow measurements in the central and southern Apennine Mountains: climatology, variability, and trend V. Capozzi et al. 10.5194/tc-19-565-2025
Temporal trends in temperature-related mortality and evidence for maladaptation to heat and cold in the Eastern Mediterranean region K. Psistaki et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173899
Data-driven analysis of annual rain distributions Y. Ashkenazy & N. Smith 10.1103/PhysRevResearch.6.023187

5 citations as recorded by crossref.

Modelling snowfall in southern Italy: a historical perspective in the Benevento Valley (1645-2018) N. Diodato et al. 10.3354/cr01681
THE HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE LVIV REGION . Семергей-Чумаченко А. Б. et al. 10.31435/rsglobal_ws/30122022/7908
An attempt to explain recent changes in European snowfall extremes D. Faranda 10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020
Elevation-dependent trends in extreme snowfall in the French Alps from 1959 to 2019 E. Le Roux et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021
The anomalously cold January 2017 in the south‐eastern Europe in a warming climate M. Demirtaş 10.1002/joc.7574

Latest update: 28 Mar 2025

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Short summary

Climate change is already affecting weather extremes. In a warming climate, we will expect the cold spells to decrease in frequency and intensity. Our analysis shows that the frequency of circulation patterns leading to snowy cold-spell events over Italy will not decrease under business-as-usual emission scenarios, although the associated events may not lead to cold conditions in the warmer scenarios.

Climate change is already affecting weather extremes. In a warming climate, we will expect the...

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Understanding compound weather and climate events and related...

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