Articles | Volume 12, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
Review
 | 
23 Aug 2021
Review |  | 23 Aug 2021

The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints

Benjamin M. Sanderson, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Charles D. Koven, Florent Brient, Ben B. B. Booth, Rosie A. Fisher, and Reto Knutti

Related authors

Change in negative emission burden between an overshoot versus peak-shaved stratospheric aerosol injection pathway
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 667–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-667-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-667-2025, 2025
Short summary
Normalizing the permafrost carbon feedback contribution to TCRE and ZEC
Norman J. Steinert and Benjamin M. Sanderson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1714,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1714, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
METEORv1.0.1: A novel framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses
Marit Sandstad, Norman Julius Steinert, Susanne Baur, and Benjamin Mark Sanderson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1038,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1038, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
Short summary
An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment
John Patrick Dunne, Helene T. Hewitt, Julie Arblaster, Frédéric Bonou, Olivier Boucher, Tereza Cavazos, Paul J. Durack, Birgit Hassler, Martin Juckes, Tomoki Miyakawa, Matthew Mizielinski, Vaishali Naik, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O’Rourke, Robert Pincus, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Isla R. Simpson, and Karl E. Taylor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3874,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3874, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Dynamics of the Earth system: concepts
Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Hassan Alkhayuon, Peter M. Cox, and Sebastian Wieczorek
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 669–683, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023, 2023
Short summary
Tracing the Snowball bifurcation of aquaplanets through time reveals a fundamental shift in critical-state dynamics
Georg Feulner, Mona Bukenberger, and Stefan Petri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 533–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-533-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-533-2023, 2023
Short summary
Multi-million-year cycles in modelled δ13C as a response to astronomical forcing of organic matter fluxes
Gaëlle Leloup and Didier Paillard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 291–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-291-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-291-2023, 2023
Short summary
Reliability of resilience estimation based on multi-instrument time series
Taylor Smith, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Wouter Dorigo, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 173–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, 2023
Short summary
The ExtremeX global climate model experiment: investigating thermodynamic and dynamic processes contributing to weather and climate extremes
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092, 2002. 
Allen, M. R. and Stott, P. A.: Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: theory, Clim. Dynam., 21, 477–491, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0313-9, 2003. 
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09712, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl051607, 2012. 
Annan, J. D., Hargreaves, J. C., Mauritsen, T., and Stevens, B.: What could we learn about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface temperature record?, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 709–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020, 2020. 
Download
Short summary
Emergent constraints promise a pathway to the reduction in climate projection uncertainties by exploiting ensemble relationships between observable quantities and unknown climate response parameters. This study considers the robustness of these relationships in light of biases and common simplifications that may be present in the original ensemble of climate simulations. We propose a classification scheme for constraints and a number of practical case studies.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint