Articles | Volume 12, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| 
23 Aug 2021
Review |
| 23 Aug 2021
| 23 Aug 2021
The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints
Benjamin M. Sanderson
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate Modeling and Global Change, CERFACS, Toulouse, France
Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Angeline G. Pendergrass
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Charles D. Koven
Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley CA, USA
Florent Brient
Dynamical Meteorology Department, LMD/IPSL, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
Ben B. B. Booth
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Exeter, UK
Rosie A. Fisher
Climate Modeling and Global Change, CERFACS, Toulouse, France
Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Reto Knutti
Dep. of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Cited
35 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Neutral Tropical African CO2 Exchange Estimated From Aircraft and Satellite Observations B. Gaubert et al.
- Toward more robust net primary production projections in the North Atlantic Ocean S. Doléac et al.
- A shifting climate: New paradigms and challenges for (early career) scientists in extreme weather research M. Kretschmer et al.
- Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models J. Terhaar et al.
- Opinion: Why all emergent constraints are wrong but some are useful – a machine learning perspective P. Nowack & D. Watson-Parris
- Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S T. Bourgeois et al.
- Machine-learning emergent constraints on surface albedo feedback over Arctic land regions L. Yu et al.
- Does Model Calibration Reduce Uncertainty in Climate Projections? S. Tett et al.
- Revisiting a Constraint on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From a Last Millennium Perspective S. Cropper et al.
- Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude D. Smith et al.
- Comparison of Climate Model Large Ensembles With Observations in the Arctic Using Simple Neural Networks Z. Labe & E. Barnes
- Observational constraints project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century V. Portmann et al.
- A drier than expected future, supported by near-surface relative humidity observations H. Douville & K. Willett
- Developing Guidelines for working with Multi-Model Ensembles in CMIP A. Katzenberger et al.
- Majority of global river flow sustained by groundwater J. Xie et al.
- ClimLoco1.0: CLimate variable confidence Interval of Multivariate Linear Observational COnstraint V. Portmann et al.
- Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications A. Merrifield et al.
- Assessment of CMIP6 models performance in simulation precipitation and temperature over Iran and surrounding regions M. Zareian et al.
- Revisiting the Potential to Narrow Model Uncertainty in the Projections of Arctic Runoff E. Dutot & H. Douville
- Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s J. Terhaar et al.
- Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity K. Armour et al.
- network-based constraint to evaluate climate sensitivity L. Ricard et al.
- Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China Z. Chen et al.
- No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability L. Liu et al.
- The Terrestrial Biosphere Model Farm J. Fisher et al.
- Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response K. Li & K. Tung
- Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6 models O. Ferguglia et al.
- Understanding the diversity of the West African monsoon system change projected by CORDEX-CORE regional climate models A. Tamoffo et al.
- Climate Model Code Genealogy and Its Relation to Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity P. Kuma et al.
- Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: why does the “emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability” work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6? M. Williamson et al.
- Machine learning–based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire Y. Yu et al.
- Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification H. Douville
- Reducing Snow Amount Uncertainty in CMIP6 PanCanadian Climate Projections D. Matte et al.
- Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects H. Douville et al.
- Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent L. Vogt et al.
35 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Neutral Tropical African CO2 Exchange Estimated From Aircraft and Satellite Observations B. Gaubert et al.
- Toward more robust net primary production projections in the North Atlantic Ocean S. Doléac et al.
- A shifting climate: New paradigms and challenges for (early career) scientists in extreme weather research M. Kretschmer et al.
- Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models J. Terhaar et al.
- Opinion: Why all emergent constraints are wrong but some are useful – a machine learning perspective P. Nowack & D. Watson-Parris
- Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S T. Bourgeois et al.
- Machine-learning emergent constraints on surface albedo feedback over Arctic land regions L. Yu et al.
- Does Model Calibration Reduce Uncertainty in Climate Projections? S. Tett et al.
- Revisiting a Constraint on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From a Last Millennium Perspective S. Cropper et al.
- Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude D. Smith et al.
- Comparison of Climate Model Large Ensembles With Observations in the Arctic Using Simple Neural Networks Z. Labe & E. Barnes
- Observational constraints project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century V. Portmann et al.
- A drier than expected future, supported by near-surface relative humidity observations H. Douville & K. Willett
- Developing Guidelines for working with Multi-Model Ensembles in CMIP A. Katzenberger et al.
- Majority of global river flow sustained by groundwater J. Xie et al.
- ClimLoco1.0: CLimate variable confidence Interval of Multivariate Linear Observational COnstraint V. Portmann et al.
- Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications A. Merrifield et al.
- Assessment of CMIP6 models performance in simulation precipitation and temperature over Iran and surrounding regions M. Zareian et al.
- Revisiting the Potential to Narrow Model Uncertainty in the Projections of Arctic Runoff E. Dutot & H. Douville
- Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s J. Terhaar et al.
- Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity K. Armour et al.
- network-based constraint to evaluate climate sensitivity L. Ricard et al.
- Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China Z. Chen et al.
- No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability L. Liu et al.
- The Terrestrial Biosphere Model Farm J. Fisher et al.
- Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response K. Li & K. Tung
- Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6 models O. Ferguglia et al.
- Understanding the diversity of the West African monsoon system change projected by CORDEX-CORE regional climate models A. Tamoffo et al.
- Climate Model Code Genealogy and Its Relation to Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity P. Kuma et al.
- Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: why does the “emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability” work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6? M. Williamson et al.
- Machine learning–based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire Y. Yu et al.
- Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification H. Douville
- Reducing Snow Amount Uncertainty in CMIP6 PanCanadian Climate Projections D. Matte et al.
- Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects H. Douville et al.
- Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent L. Vogt et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 May 2026
Short summary
Emergent constraints promise a pathway to the reduction in climate projection uncertainties by exploiting ensemble relationships between observable quantities and unknown climate response parameters. This study considers the robustness of these relationships in light of biases and common simplifications that may be present in the original ensemble of climate simulations. We propose a classification scheme for constraints and a number of practical case studies.
Emergent constraints promise a pathway to the reduction in climate projection uncertainties by...
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