Articles | Volume 12, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| 
23 Aug 2021
Review |
| 23 Aug 2021
| 23 Aug 2021
The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints
Benjamin M. Sanderson
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate Modeling and Global Change, CERFACS, Toulouse, France
Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Angeline G. Pendergrass
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Charles D. Koven
Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley CA, USA
Florent Brient
Dynamical Meteorology Department, LMD/IPSL, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
Ben B. B. Booth
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Exeter, UK
Rosie A. Fisher
Climate Modeling and Global Change, CERFACS, Toulouse, France
Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Reto Knutti
Dep. of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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21 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models J. Terhaar et al. 10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022
- Revisiting the Potential to Narrow Model Uncertainty in the Projections of Arctic Runoff E. Dutot & H. Douville 10.1029/2023GL104039
- Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S T. Bourgeois et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5
- Does Model Calibration Reduce Uncertainty in Climate Projections? S. Tett et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0434.1
- Revisiting a Constraint on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From a Last Millennium Perspective S. Cropper et al. 10.1029/2023GL104126
- Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity K. Armour et al. 10.1073/pnas.2312093121
- Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China Z. Chen et al. 10.1029/2022GL102124
- The Terrestrial Biosphere Model Farm J. Fisher et al. 10.1029/2021MS002676
- Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response K. Li & K. Tung 10.1038/s41467-023-43583-7
- Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6 models O. Ferguglia et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06634-1
- Understanding the diversity of the West African monsoon system change projected by CORDEX-CORE regional climate models A. Tamoffo et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06690-1
- Climate Model Code Genealogy and Its Relation to Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity P. Kuma et al. 10.1029/2022MS003588
- Comparison of Climate Model Large Ensembles With Observations in the Arctic Using Simple Neural Networks Z. Labe & E. Barnes 10.1029/2022EA002348
- Machine learning–based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire Y. Yu et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-28853-0
- Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification H. Douville 10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5
- A drier than expected future, supported by near-surface relative humidity observations H. Douville & K. Willett 10.1126/sciadv.ade6253
- A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to rising CO2 T. Keenan et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01867-2
- Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections G. Hegerl et al. 10.3389/fclim.2021.678109
- RETRACTED ARTICLE: A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to increasing CO2 T. Keenan et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-04096-9
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Neutral Tropical African CO2 Exchange Estimated From Aircraft and Satellite Observations B. Gaubert et al. 10.1029/2023GB007804
- Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications A. Merrifield et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-4715-2023
- Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models J. Terhaar et al. 10.5194/bg-19-4431-2022
- Revisiting the Potential to Narrow Model Uncertainty in the Projections of Arctic Runoff E. Dutot & H. Douville 10.1029/2023GL104039
- Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S T. Bourgeois et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5
- Does Model Calibration Reduce Uncertainty in Climate Projections? S. Tett et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0434.1
- Revisiting a Constraint on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From a Last Millennium Perspective S. Cropper et al. 10.1029/2023GL104126
- Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity K. Armour et al. 10.1073/pnas.2312093121
- Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China Z. Chen et al. 10.1029/2022GL102124
- The Terrestrial Biosphere Model Farm J. Fisher et al. 10.1029/2021MS002676
- Solar cycle as a distinct line of evidence constraining Earth’s transient climate response K. Li & K. Tung 10.1038/s41467-023-43583-7
- Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6 models O. Ferguglia et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06634-1
- Understanding the diversity of the West African monsoon system change projected by CORDEX-CORE regional climate models A. Tamoffo et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06690-1
- Climate Model Code Genealogy and Its Relation to Climate Feedbacks and Sensitivity P. Kuma et al. 10.1029/2022MS003588
- Comparison of Climate Model Large Ensembles With Observations in the Arctic Using Simple Neural Networks Z. Labe & E. Barnes 10.1029/2022EA002348
- Machine learning–based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire Y. Yu et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-28853-0
- Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification H. Douville 10.1038/s43247-023-00949-5
- A drier than expected future, supported by near-surface relative humidity observations H. Douville & K. Willett 10.1126/sciadv.ade6253
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to rising CO2 T. Keenan et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01867-2
- Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections G. Hegerl et al. 10.3389/fclim.2021.678109
- RETRACTED ARTICLE: A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to increasing CO2 T. Keenan et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-04096-9
Latest update: 08 May 2024
Short summary
Emergent constraints promise a pathway to the reduction in climate projection uncertainties by exploiting ensemble relationships between observable quantities and unknown climate response parameters. This study considers the robustness of these relationships in light of biases and common simplifications that may be present in the original ensemble of climate simulations. We propose a classification scheme for constraints and a number of practical case studies.
Emergent constraints promise a pathway to the reduction in climate projection uncertainties by...
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