Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1427–1501, 2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1427–1501, 2021
Research article
 | Highlight paper
06 Dec 2021
Research article  | Highlight paper | 06 Dec 2021

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Claudia Tebaldi et al.

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Cited articles

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Arora, V. K., Scinocca, J. F., Boer, G. J., Christian, J. R., Denman, K. L., Flato, G. M., Kharin, V. V., Lee, W. G., and Merryfield, W. J.: Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05805,, 2011. a
Bittner, M., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., and Sienz, F.: Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9324–9332,, 2016. a
Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer-Verlag, London, London, United Kingdom, 2001. a
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H.: Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections: the Role of Internal Variability, Clim. Dynam., 38, 527–546,, 2012. a
Short summary
We address the question of how large an initial condition ensemble of climate model simulations should be if we are concerned with accurately projecting future changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We find that for most cases (and both models considered), an ensemble of 20–25 members is sufficient for many extreme metrics, spatial scales and time horizons. This may leave computational resources to tackle other uncertainties in climate model simulations with our ensembles.
Final-revised paper