Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
06 Dec 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 06 Dec 2021
Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
Kalyn Dorheim
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA
Michael Wehner
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
Ruby Leung
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
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In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
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Qi Tang, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Luke P. Van Roekel, Mark A. Taylor, Wuyin Lin, Benjamin R. Hillman, Paul A. Ullrich, Andrew M. Bradley, Oksana Guba, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Tian Zhou, Kai Zhang, Xue Zheng, Yunyan Zhang, Meng Zhang, Mingxuan Wu, Hailong Wang, Cheng Tao, Balwinder Singh, Alan M. Rhoades, Yi Qin, Hong-Yi Li, Yan Feng, Yuying Zhang, Chengzhu Zhang, Charles S. Zender, Shaocheng Xie, Erika L. Roesler, Andrew F. Roberts, Azamat Mametjanov, Mathew E. Maltrud, Noel D. Keen, Robert L. Jacob, Christiane Jablonowski, Owen K. Hughes, Ryan M. Forsyth, Alan V. Di Vittorio, Peter M. Caldwell, Gautam Bisht, Renata B. McCoy, L. Ruby Leung, and David C. Bader
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Meng Huang, Po-Lun Ma, Nathaniel W. Chaney, Dalei Hao, Gautam Bisht, Megan D. Fowler, Vincent E. Larson, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6371–6384, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6371-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6371-2022, 2022
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The land surface in one grid cell may be diverse in character. This study uses an explicit way to account for that subgrid diversity in a state-of-the-art Earth system model (ESM) and explores its implications for the overlying atmosphere. We find that the shallow clouds are increased significantly with the land surface diversity. Our work highlights the importance of accurately representing the land surface and its interaction with the atmosphere in next-generation ESMs.
Yilin Fang, L. Ruby Leung, Ryan Knox, Charlie Koven, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6385–6398, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6385-2022, 2022
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Accounting for water movement in the soil and water transport within the plant is important for plant growth in Earth system modeling. We implemented different numerical approaches for a plant hydrodynamic model and compared their impacts on the simulated aboveground biomass (AGB) at single points and globally. We found care should be taken when discretizing the number of soil layers for numerical simulations as it can significantly affect AGB if accuracy and computational costs are of concern.
Mari R. Tye, Katherine Dagon, Maria J. Molina, Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1233–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, 2022
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We examined the potential effect of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on extreme temperature and precipitation. SAI may cause daytime temperatures to cool but nighttime to warm. Daytime cooling may occur in all seasons across the globe, with the largest decreases in summer. In contrast, nighttime warming may be greatest at high latitudes in winter. SAI may reduce the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. The combined changes may exacerbate drying over parts of the global south.
Sol Kim, L. Ruby Leung, Bin Guan, and John C. H. Chiang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5461–5480, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5461-2022, 2022
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The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project is a state-of-the-science Earth system model developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE). Understanding how the water cycle behaves in this model is of particular importance to the DOE’s mission. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) – which are crucial to the global water cycle – move vast amounts of water vapor through the sky and produce rain and snow. We find that this model reliably represents atmospheric rivers around the world.
Lingcheng Li, Gautam Bisht, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5489–5510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5489-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5489-2022, 2022
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Land surface heterogeneity plays a critical role in the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. Our study systematically quantified the effects of four dominant heterogeneity sources on water and energy partitioning via Sobol' indices. We found that atmospheric forcing and land use land cover are the most dominant heterogeneity sources in determining spatial variability of water and energy partitioning. Our findings can help prioritize the future development of land surface models.
Kai Zhang, Wentao Zhang, Hui Wan, Philip J. Rasch, Steven J. Ghan, Richard C. Easter, Xiangjun Shi, Yong Wang, Hailong Wang, Po-Lun Ma, Shixuan Zhang, Jian Sun, Susannah M. Burrows, Manish Shrivastava, Balwinder Singh, Yun Qian, Xiaohong Liu, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Qi Tang, Xue Zheng, Shaocheng Xie, Wuyin Lin, Yan Feng, Minghuai Wang, Jin-Ho Yoon, and L. Ruby Leung
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9129–9160, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9129-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9129-2022, 2022
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Here we analyze the effective aerosol forcing simulated by E3SM version 1 using both century-long free-running and short nudged simulations. The aerosol forcing in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to other models, mainly due to the large indirect aerosol effect. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 have a strong correlation. The aerosol forcing estimates in E3SMv1 are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes.
Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Khachik Sargsyan, Chang Liao, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5021–5043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5021-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5021-2022, 2022
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The runoff outputs in Earth system model simulations involve high uncertainty, which needs to be constrained by parameter calibration. In this work, we used a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to efficiently calibrate the runoff-generation processes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model v1 at a global scale. The model performance was improved compared to the default parameter after calibration, and the associated parametric uncertainty was significantly constrained.
Yun Lin, Jiwen Fan, Pengfei Li, Lai-yung Ruby Leung, Paul J. DeMott, Lexie Goldberger, Jennifer Comstock, Ying Liu, Jong-Hoon Jeong, and Jason Tomlinson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6749–6771, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6749-2022, 2022
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How sea spray aerosols may affect cloud and precipitation over the region by acting as ice-nucleating particles (INPs) is unknown. We explored the effects of INPs from marine aerosols on orographic cloud and precipitation for an atmospheric river event observed during the 2015 ACAPEX field campaign. The marine INPs enhance the formation of ice and snow, leading to less shallow warm clouds but more mixed-phase and deep clouds. This work suggests models need to consider the impacts of marine INPs.
Pinya Wang, Yang Yang, Huimin Li, Lei Chen, Ruijun Dang, Daokai Xue, Baojie Li, Jianping Tang, L. Ruby Leung, and Hong Liao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4705–4719, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4705-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4705-2022, 2022
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China is now suffering from both severe ozone (O3) pollution and heat events. We highlight that North China Plain is the hot spot of the co-occurrences of extremes in O3 and high temperatures in China. Such coupled extremes exhibit an increasing trend during 2014–2019 and will continue to increase until the middle of this century. And the coupled extremes impose more severe health impacts to human than O3 pollution occurring alone because of elevated O3 levels and temperatures.
Po-Lun Ma, Bryce E. Harrop, Vincent E. Larson, Richard B. Neale, Andrew Gettelman, Hugh Morrison, Hailong Wang, Kai Zhang, Stephen A. Klein, Mark D. Zelinka, Yuying Zhang, Yun Qian, Jin-Ho Yoon, Christopher R. Jones, Meng Huang, Sheng-Lun Tai, Balwinder Singh, Peter A. Bogenschutz, Xue Zheng, Wuyin Lin, Johannes Quaas, Hélène Chepfer, Michael A. Brunke, Xubin Zeng, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Samson Hagos, Zhibo Zhang, Hua Song, Xiaohong Liu, Michael S. Pritchard, Hui Wan, Jingyu Wang, Qi Tang, Peter M. Caldwell, Jiwen Fan, Larry K. Berg, Jerome D. Fast, Mark A. Taylor, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Shaocheng Xie, Philip J. Rasch, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2881–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2881-2022, 2022
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An alternative set of parameters for E3SM Atmospheric Model version 1 has been developed based on a tuning strategy that focuses on clouds. When clouds in every regime are improved, other aspects of the model are also improved, even though they are not the direct targets for calibration. The recalibrated model shows a lower sensitivity to anthropogenic aerosols and surface warming, suggesting potential improvements to the simulated climate in the past and future.
Sally S.-C. Wang, Yun Qian, L. Ruby Leung, and Yang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3445–3468, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3445-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3445-2022, 2022
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This study develops an interpretable machine learning (ML) model predicting monthly PM2.5 fire emission over the contiguous US at 0.25° resolution and compares the prediction skills of the ML and process-based models. The comparison facilitates attributions of model biases and better understanding of the strengths and uncertainties in the two types of models at regional scales, for informing future model development and their applications in fire emission projection.
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Hong-Yi Li, Zhenduo Zhu, Zeli Tan, and L. Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 929–942, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-929-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-929-2022, 2022
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Existing riverbed sediment particle size data are sparsely available at individual sites. We develop a continuous map of median riverbed sediment particle size over the contiguous US corresponding to millions of river segments based on the existing observations and machine learning methods. This map is useful for research in large-scale river sediment using model- and data-driven approaches, teaching environmental and earth system sciences, planning and managing floodplain zones, etc.
Hong-Yi Li, Zeli Tan, Hongbo Ma, Zhenduo Zhu, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Senlin Zhu, Sagy Cohen, Tian Zhou, Donghui Xu, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 665–688, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-665-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-665-2022, 2022
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We introduce a new multi-process river sediment module for Earth system models. Application and validation over the contiguous US indicate a satisfactory model performance over large river systems, including those heavily regulated by reservoirs. This new sediment module enables future modeling of the transportation and transformation of carbon and nutrients carried by the fine sediment along the river–ocean continuum to close the global carbon and nutrient cycles.
Dalei Hao, Gautam Bisht, Yu Gu, Wei-Liang Lee, Kuo-Nan Liou, and L. Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6273–6289, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6273-2021, 2021
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Topography exerts significant influence on the incoming solar radiation at the land surface. This study incorporated a well-validated sub-grid topographic parameterization in E3SM land model (ELM) version 1.0. The results demonstrate that sub-grid topography has non-negligible effects on surface energy budget, snow cover, and surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau and that the ELM simulations are sensitive to season, elevation, and spatial scale.
Yongkang Xue, Tandong Yao, Aaron A. Boone, Ismaila Diallo, Ye Liu, Xubin Zeng, William K. M. Lau, Shiori Sugimoto, Qi Tang, Xiaoduo Pan, Peter J. van Oevelen, Daniel Klocke, Myung-Seo Koo, Tomonori Sato, Zhaohui Lin, Yuhei Takaya, Constantin Ardilouze, Stefano Materia, Subodh K. Saha, Retish Senan, Tetsu Nakamura, Hailan Wang, Jing Yang, Hongliang Zhang, Mei Zhao, Xin-Zhong Liang, J. David Neelin, Frederic Vitart, Xin Li, Ping Zhao, Chunxiang Shi, Weidong Guo, Jianping Tang, Miao Yu, Yun Qian, Samuel S. P. Shen, Yang Zhang, Kun Yang, Ruby Leung, Yuan Qiu, Daniele Peano, Xin Qi, Yanling Zhan, Michael A. Brunke, Sin Chan Chou, Michael Ek, Tianyi Fan, Hong Guan, Hai Lin, Shunlin Liang, Helin Wei, Shaocheng Xie, Haoran Xu, Weiping Li, Xueli Shi, Paulo Nobre, Yan Pan, Yi Qin, Jeff Dozier, Craig R. Ferguson, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Qing Bao, Jinming Feng, Jinkyu Hong, Songyou Hong, Huilin Huang, Duoying Ji, Zhenming Ji, Shichang Kang, Yanluan Lin, Weiguang Liu, Ryan Muncaster, Patricia de Rosnay, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Guiling Wang, Shuyu Wang, Weicai Wang, Xu Zhou, and Yuejian Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4465–4494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, 2021
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The subseasonal prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts/floods has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new international initiative which, for the first time, introduces spring land surface temperature anomalies over high mountains to improve precipitation prediction through remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. More than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this effort. The experimental protocol and preliminary results are presented.
Jeff W. Atkins, Elizabeth Agee, Alexandra Barry, Kyla M. Dahlin, Kalyn Dorheim, Maxim S. Grigri, Lisa T. Haber, Laura J. Hickey, Aaron G. Kamoske, Kayla Mathes, Catherine McGuigan, Evan Paris, Stephanie C. Pennington, Carly Rodriguez, Autym Shafer, Alexey Shiklomanov, Jason Tallant, Christopher M. Gough, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 943–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-943-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-943-2021, 2021
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The fortedata R package is an open data notebook from the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) – a modeling and manipulative field experiment that tests the effects of disturbance severity and disturbance type on carbon cycling dynamics in a temperate forest. The data included help to interpret how carbon cycling processes respond over time to disturbance.
Jianfeng Li, Zhe Feng, Yun Qian, and L. Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 827–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-827-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-827-2021, 2021
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Deep convection has different properties at different scales. We develop a 4 km h−1 observational data product of mesoscale convective systems and isolated deep convection in the United States from 2004–2017. We find that both types of convective systems contribute significantly to precipitation east of the Rocky Mountains but with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics. The data product will be useful for observational analyses and model evaluations of convection events at different scales.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Kalyn Dorheim, Steven J. Smith, and Ben Bond-Lamberty
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 365–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-365-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-365-2021, 2021
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Simple climate models are frequently used in research and decision-making communities because of their tractability and low computational cost. Simple climate models are diverse, including highly idealized and process-based models. Here we present a hybrid approach that combines the strength of two types of simple climate models in a flexible framework. This hybrid approach has provided insights into the climate system and opens an avenue for investigating radiative forcing uncertainties.
Prabhat, Karthik Kashinath, Mayur Mudigonda, Sol Kim, Lukas Kapp-Schwoerer, Andre Graubner, Ege Karaismailoglu, Leo von Kleist, Thorsten Kurth, Annette Greiner, Ankur Mahesh, Kevin Yang, Colby Lewis, Jiayi Chen, Andrew Lou, Sathyavat Chandran, Ben Toms, Will Chapman, Katherine Dagon, Christine A. Shields, Travis O'Brien, Michael Wehner, and William Collins
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 107–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-107-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-107-2021, 2021
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Detecting extreme weather events is a crucial step in understanding how they change due to climate change. Deep learning (DL) is remarkable at pattern recognition; however, it works best only when labeled datasets are available. We create
ClimateNet– an expert-labeled curated dataset – to train a DL model for detecting weather events and predicting changes in extreme precipitation. This work paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data.
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
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Computational limits mean that we cannot run our most comprehensive climate models for all applications of interest. In such cases, reduced complexity models (RCMs) are used. Here, researchers working on 15 different models present the first systematic community effort to evaluate and compare RCMs: the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). Our research ensures that users of RCMs can more easily evaluate the strengths, weaknesses and limitations of their tools.
Mark D. Risser and Michael F. Wehner
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 115–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-115-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-115-2020, 2020
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Evaluation of modern high-resolution global climate models often does not account for the geographic location of the underlying weather station data. In this paper, we quantify the impact of geographic sampling on the relative performance of climate model representations of precipitation extremes over the United States. We find that properly accounting for the geographic sampling of weather stations can significantly change the assessment of model performance.
Kurt C. Solander, Brent D. Newman, Alessandro Carioca de Araujo, Holly R. Barnard, Z. Carter Berry, Damien Bonal, Mario Bretfeld, Benoit Burban, Luiz Antonio Candido, Rolando Célleri, Jeffery Q. Chambers, Bradley O. Christoffersen, Matteo Detto, Wouter A. Dorigo, Brent E. Ewers, Savio José Filgueiras Ferreira, Alexander Knohl, L. Ruby Leung, Nate G. McDowell, Gretchen R. Miller, Maria Terezinha Ferreira Monteiro, Georgianne W. Moore, Robinson Negron-Juarez, Scott R. Saleska, Christian Stiegler, Javier Tomasella, and Chonggang Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2303-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2303-2020, 2020
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We evaluate the soil moisture response in the humid tropics to El Niño during the three most recent super El Niño events. Our estimates are compared to in situ soil moisture estimates that span five continents. We find the strongest and most consistent soil moisture decreases in the Amazon and maritime southeastern Asia, while the most consistent increases occur over eastern Africa. Our results can be used to improve estimates of soil moisture in tropical ecohydrology models at multiple scales.
Zhiyuan Hu, Jianping Huang, Chun Zhao, Yuanyuan Ma, Qinjian Jin, Yun Qian, L. Ruby Leung, Jianrong Bi, and Jianmin Ma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12709–12730, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12709-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12709-2019, 2019
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This study investigates aerosol chemical compositions and relative contributions to total aerosols in the western US. The results show that trans-Pacific aerosols have a maximum concentration in the boreal spring, with the greatest contribution from dust. Over western North America, the trans-Pacific aerosols dominate the column-integrated aerosol mass and number concentration. However, near the surface, aerosols mainly originated from local emissions.
Mingchen Ma, Yang Gao, Yuhang Wang, Shaoqing Zhang, L. Ruby Leung, Cheng Liu, Shuxiao Wang, Bin Zhao, Xing Chang, Hang Su, Tianqi Zhang, Lifang Sheng, Xiaohong Yao, and Huiwang Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12195–12207, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12195-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12195-2019, 2019
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Ozone pollution has become severe in China, and extremely high ozone episodes occurred in summer 2017 over the North China Plain. While meteorology impacts are clear, we find that enhanced biogenic emissions, previously ignored by the community, driven by high vapor pressure deficit, land cover change and urban landscape contribute substantially to ozone formation. This study has significant implications for ozone pollution control with more frequent heat waves and urbanization growth in future.
Chun Zhao, Mingyue Xu, Yu Wang, Meixin Zhang, Jianping Guo, Zhiyuan Hu, L. Ruby Leung, Michael Duda, and William Skamarock
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2707-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2707-2019, 2019
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Simulations at global uniform and variable resolutions share similar characteristics of precipitation and wind in the refined region. The experiments reveal the significant impacts of resolution on simulating the distribution and intensity of precipitation and updrafts. This study provides evidence supporting the use of convection-permitting global variable-resolution simulations to study extreme precipitation.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019
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The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
Katherine Calvin, Pralit Patel, Leon Clarke, Ghassem Asrar, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Ryna Yiyun Cui, Alan Di Vittorio, Kalyn Dorheim, Jae Edmonds, Corinne Hartin, Mohamad Hejazi, Russell Horowitz, Gokul Iyer, Page Kyle, Sonny Kim, Robert Link, Haewon McJeon, Steven J. Smith, Abigail Snyder, Stephanie Waldhoff, and Marshall Wise
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 677–698, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019, 2019
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This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. GCAM examines the future evolution of these systems through the end of the 21st century. It can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or how changes in one region’s demand for energy affect energy, water, and land in other regions.
Grzegorz Muszynski, Karthik Kashinath, Vitaliy Kurlin, Michael Wehner, and Prabhat
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 613–628, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-613-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-613-2019, 2019
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We present the automated method for recognizing atmospheric rivers in climate data, i.e., climate model output and reanalysis product. The method is based on topological data analysis and machine learning, both of which are powerful tools that the climate science community often does not use. An advantage of the proposed method is that it is free of selection of subjective threshold conditions on a physical variable. This method is also suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of data.
Junxi Zhang, Yang Gao, L. Ruby Leung, Kun Luo, Huan Liu, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jianren Fan, Xiaohong Yao, Huiwang Gao, and Tatsuya Nagashima
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 887–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-887-2019, 2019
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ACCMIP simulations were used to study NOy deposition over East Asia in the future. Both dry and wet NOy deposition show significant decreases in the 2100s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 due to large anthropogenic emission reduction. The changes in climate only significantly affect the wet deposition primarily linked to changes in precipitation. Over the coastal seas of China, weaker transport of NOy from land due to emission reduction infers a larger impact from shipping and lightning emissions.
Ge Zhang, Yang Gao, Wenju Cai, L. Ruby Leung, Shuxiao Wang, Bin Zhao, Minghuai Wang, Huayao Shan, Xiaohong Yao, and Huiwang Gao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 565–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-565-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-565-2019, 2019
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Based on observed data, this study reveals a distinct seesaw feature of abnormally high and low PM2.5 concentrations in December 2015 and January 2016 over North China. The mechanism of the seesaw pattern was found to be linked to a super El Niño and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During the mature phase of El Niño in December 2015, the weakened East Asian winter monsoon favors strong haze formation; however, the circulation pattern was reversed in the next month due to the phase change of the AO.
Junxi Zhang, Yang Gao, Kun Luo, L. Ruby Leung, Yang Zhang, Kai Wang, and Jianren Fan
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9861–9877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9861-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9861-2018, 2018
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We used a regional model to investigate the impact of atmosphere with high temperature and low wind speed on ozone concentration. When these compound events (heat waves and stagnant weather) occur simultaneously, a striking ozone enhancement is revealed. This type of compound event is projected to increase more dominantly compared to single events in the future over the US, Europe, and China, implying the importance of reducing emissions in order to alleviate the impact from the compound events.
Christine A. Shields, Jonathan J. Rutz, Lai-Yung Leung, F. Martin Ralph, Michael Wehner, Brian Kawzenuk, Juan M. Lora, Elizabeth McClenny, Tashiana Osborne, Ashley E. Payne, Paul Ullrich, Alexander Gershunov, Naomi Goldenson, Bin Guan, Yun Qian, Alexandre M. Ramos, Chandan Sarangi, Scott Sellars, Irina Gorodetskaya, Karthik Kashinath, Vitaliy Kurlin, Kelly Mahoney, Grzegorz Muszynski, Roger Pierce, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Ricardo Tome, Duane Waliser, Daniel Walton, Gary Wick, Anna Wilson, David Lavers, Prabhat, Allison Collow, Harinarayan Krishnan, Gudrun Magnusdottir, and Phu Nguyen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2455–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018, 2018
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ARTMIP (Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project) is a community effort with the explicit goal of understanding the uncertainties, and the implications of those uncertainties, in atmospheric river science solely due to detection algorithm. ARTMIP strives to quantify these differences and provide guidance on appropriate algorithmic choices for the science question posed. Project goals, experimental design, and preliminary results are provided.
Monika J. Barcikowska, Scott J. Weaver, Frauke Feser, Simone Russo, Frederik Schenk, Dáithí A. Stone, Michael F. Wehner, and Matthias Zahn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 679–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-679-2018, 2018
Kai Zhang, Philip J. Rasch, Mark A. Taylor, Hui Wan, Ruby Leung, Po-Lun Ma, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Jon Wolfe, Wuyin Lin, Balwinder Singh, Susannah Burrows, Jin-Ho Yoon, Hailong Wang, Yun Qian, Qi Tang, Peter Caldwell, and Shaocheng Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1971–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1971-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1971-2018, 2018
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The conservation of total water is an important numerical feature for global Earth system models. Even small conservation problems in the water budget can lead to systematic errors in century-long simulations for sea level rise projection. This study quantifies and reduces various sources of water conservation error in the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model.
Michael Wehner, Dáithí Stone, Dann Mitchell, Hideo Shiogama, Erich Fischer, Lise S. Graff, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Ludwig Lierhammer, Benjamin Sanderson, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 299–311, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018, 2018
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The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change challenged the scientific community to describe the impacts of stabilizing the global temperature at its 21st Conference of Parties. A specific target of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels had not been seriously considered by the climate modeling community prior to the Paris Agreement. This paper analyzes heat waves in simulations designed for this target. We find there are reductions in extreme temperature compared to a 2 °C target.
Michael F. Wehner, Kevin A. Reed, Burlen Loring, Dáithí Stone, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 187–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018, 2018
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The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios using a high-resolution global climate model. We find more frequent and intense tropical cyclones, but a reduction in weaker storms.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Yangyang Xu, Claudia Tebaldi, Michael Wehner, Brian O'Neill, Alexandra Jahn, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Warren G. Strand, Lei Lin, Reto Knutti, and Jean Francois Lamarque
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 827–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017, 2017
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We present the results of a set of climate simulations designed to simulate futures in which the Earth's temperature is stabilized at the levels referred to in the 2015 Paris Agreement. We consider the necessary future emissions reductions and the aspects of extreme weather which differ significantly between the 2 and 1.5 °C climate in the simulations.
Randal D. Koster, Alan K. Betts, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Marc Bierkens, Katrina E. Bennett, Stephen J. Déry, Jason P. Evans, Rong Fu, Felipe Hernandez, L. Ruby Leung, Xu Liang, Muhammad Masood, Hubert Savenije, Guiling Wang, and Xing Yuan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3777–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3777-2017, 2017
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Large-scale hydrological variability can affect society in profound ways; floods and droughts, for example, often cause major damage and hardship. A recent gathering of hydrologists at a symposium to honor the career of Professor Eric Wood motivates the present survey of recent research on this variability. The surveyed literature and the illustrative examples provided in the paper show that research into hydrological variability continues to be strong, vibrant, and multifaceted.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Michael Wehner, and Reto Knutti
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2379–2395, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017, 2017
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How should climate model simulations be combined to produce an overall assessment that reflects both their performance and their interdependencies? This paper presents a strategy for weighting climate model output such that models that are replicated or models that perform poorly in a chosen set of metrics are appropriately weighted. We perform sensitivity tests to show how the method results depend on variables and parameter values.
Shi Zhong, Yun Qian, Chun Zhao, Ruby Leung, Hailong Wang, Ben Yang, Jiwen Fan, Huiping Yan, Xiu-Qun Yang, and Dongqing Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5439–5457, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5439-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5439-2017, 2017
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An online climate–chemistry coupled model (WRF-Chem) is integrated for 5 years at cloud-permitting scale to quantify the impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutants emission on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta region in eastern China. Urbanization over this region increases the frequency of extreme precipitation and heat wave in summer. The results could help China government in making policies in mitigating the environmental impact of urbanization.
Xiangyu Luo, Hong-Yi Li, L. Ruby Leung, Teklu K. Tesfa, Augusto Getirana, Fabrice Papa, and Laura L. Hess
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1233–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1233-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1233-2017, 2017
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This study shows that alleviating vegetation-caused biases in DEM data, refining channel cross-sectional geometry and Manning roughness coefficients, as well as accounting for backwater effects can effectively improve the modeling of streamflow, river stages and flood extent in the Amazon Basin. The obtained understanding could be helpful to hydrological modeling in basins with evident inundation, which has important implications for improving land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.
Teklu K. Tesfa and Lai-Yung Ruby Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 873–888, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-873-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-873-2017, 2017
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Motivated by the significant topographic influence on land surface processes, this study explored two methods to discretize watersheds into two types of subgrid structures to capture spatial heterogeneity for land surface models. Adopting geomorphologic concepts in watershed discretization yields improved capability in capturing subgrid topographic heterogeneity, which also allowed climatic and land cover variability to be better represented with a nominal increase in computational requirements.
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna AchutaRao, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen, Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner, and Rashyd Zaaboul
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017
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This paper provides an experimental design to assess impacts of a world that is 1.5 °C warmer than at pre-industrial levels. The design is a new way to approach impacts from the climate community, and aims to answer questions related to the recent Paris Agreement. In particular the paper provides a method for studying extreme events under relatively high mitigation scenarios.
Jiwen Fan, L. Ruby Leung, Daniel Rosenfeld, and Paul J. DeMott
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1017–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1017-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1017-2017, 2017
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How orographic mixed-phase clouds respond to changes in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nucleating particles (INPs) is highly uncertain. We conducted this study to improve understanding of these processes. We found a new mechanism through which CCN can invigorate orographic mixed-phase clouds and drastically intensify snow precipitation when CCN concentrations are high. Our findings have very important implications for orographic precipitation in polluted regions.
Reindert J. Haarsma, Malcolm J. Roberts, Pier Luigi Vidale, Catherine A. Senior, Alessio Bellucci, Qing Bao, Ping Chang, Susanna Corti, Neven S. Fučkar, Virginie Guemas, Jost von Hardenberg, Wilco Hazeleger, Chihiro Kodama, Torben Koenigk, L. Ruby Leung, Jian Lu, Jing-Jia Luo, Jiafu Mao, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Masaki Satoh, Enrico Scoccimarro, Tido Semmler, Justin Small, and Jin-Song von Storch
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, 2016
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Recent progress in computing power has enabled climate models to simulate more processes in detail and on a smaller scale. Here we present a common protocol for these high-resolution runs that will foster the analysis and understanding of the impact of model resolution on the simulated climate. These runs will also serve as a more reliable source for assessing climate risks that are associated with small-scale weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones.
Nathan P. Gillett, Hideo Shiogama, Bernd Funke, Gabriele Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Katja Matthes, Benjamin D. Santer, Daithi Stone, and Claudia Tebaldi
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3685–3697, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016, 2016
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Detection and attribution of climate change is the process of determining the causes of observed climate changes, which has underpinned key conclusions on the role of human influence on climate in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper describes a coordinated set of climate model experiments that will form part of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and will support improved attribution of climate change in the next IPCC report.
Brian C. O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, George Hurtt, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jason Lowe, Gerald A. Meehl, Richard Moss, Keywan Riahi, and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016
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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. The design consists of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions. Climate model projections will facilitate integrated studies of climate change as well as address targeted scientific questions.
Bin Zhao, Kuo-Nan Liou, Yu Gu, Cenlin He, Wee-Liang Lee, Xing Chang, Qinbin Li, Shuxiao Wang, Hsien-Liang R. Tseng, Lai-Yung R. Leung, and Jiming Hao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5841–5852, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5841-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5841-2016, 2016
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We examine the impact of buildings on surface solar fluxes in Beijing by accounting for their 3-D structures. We find that inclusion of buildings changes surface solar fluxes by within ±1 W m−2, ±1–10 W m−2, and up to ±100 W m−2 at grid resolutions of 4 km, 800 m, and 90 m, respectively. We can resolve pairs of positive-negative flux deviations on different sides of buildings at ≤ 800 m resolutions. We should treat building-effect on solar fluxes differently in models with different resolutions.
Zhiyuan Hu, Chun Zhao, Jianping Huang, L. Ruby Leung, Yun Qian, Hongbin Yu, Lei Huang, and Olga V. Kalashnikova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1725–1746, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1725-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1725-2016, 2016
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This study conducts the simulation of WRF-Chem with the quasi-global configuration for 2010–2014, and evaluates the simulation with multiple observation datasets for the first time. This study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate.
S. Jeon, Prabhat, S. Byna, J. Gu, W. D. Collins, and M. F. Wehner
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 1, 45–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-1-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-1-45-2015, 2015
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This paper investigates the influence of atmospheric rivers on spatial coherence of extreme precipitation under a changing climate. We use our TECA software developed for detecting atmospheric river events and apply statistical techniques based on extreme value theory to characterize the spatial dependence structure between precipitation extremes within the events. The results show that extreme rainfall caused by atmospheric river events is less spatially correlated under the warming scenario.
C. He, K.-N. Liou, Y. Takano, R. Zhang, M. Levy Zamora, P. Yang, Q. Li, and L. R. Leung
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11967–11980, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11967-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11967-2015, 2015
W.-L. Lee, Y. Gu, K. N. Liou, L. R. Leung, and H.-H. Hsu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5405–5413, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5405-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5405-2015, 2015
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This paper investigates 3-D mountain effects on solar flux distributions and their impact on surface hydrology over the western United States, specifically the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada, using the global CCSM4 (CAM4/CLM4) with a 0.23°×0.31° resolution for simulations over 6 years. We show that deviations in the net surface fluxes are not only affected by 3-D mountains but also influenced by feedbacks of cloud and snow in association with the long-term simulations.
Y. Fang, C. Liu, and L. R. Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 781–789, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-781-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-781-2015, 2015
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1. A gradient projection method was used to reduce the computation time of carbon-nitrogen spin-up processes in CLM4.
2. Point-scale simulations showed that the cyclic stability of total carbon for some cases differs from that of the periodic atmospheric forcing, and some cases even showed instability.
3. The instability issue is resolved after the hydrology scheme in CLM4 is replaced with a flow model for variably saturated porous media.
C. Zhao, Z. Hu, Y. Qian, L. Ruby Leung, J. Huang, M. Huang, J. Jin, M. G. Flanner, R. Zhang, H. Wang, H. Yan, Z. Lu, and D. G. Streets
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 11475–11491, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11475-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-11475-2014, 2014
T. K. Tesfa, H.-Y. Li, L. R. Leung, M. Huang, Y. Ke, Y. Sun, and Y. Liu
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 947–963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-947-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-947-2014, 2014
J. Fan, L. R. Leung, P. J. DeMott, J. M. Comstock, B. Singh, D. Rosenfeld, J. M. Tomlinson, A. White, K. A. Prather, P. Minnis, J. K. Ayers, and Q. Min
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 81–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-81-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-81-2014, 2014
Y. Sun, Z. Hou, M. Huang, F. Tian, and L. Ruby Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4995–5011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4995-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4995-2013, 2013
K. N. Liou, Y. Gu, L. R. Leung, W. L. Lee, and R. G. Fovell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11709–11721, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11709-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11709-2013, 2013
N. Voisin, L. Liu, M. Hejazi, T. Tesfa, H. Li, M. Huang, Y. Liu, and L. R. Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4555–4575, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4555-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4555-2013, 2013
Y. Fang, M. Huang, C. Liu, H. Li, and L. R. Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1977–1988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1977-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1977-2013, 2013
C. Zhao, S. Chen, L. R. Leung, Y. Qian, J. F. Kok, R. A. Zaveri, and J. Huang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10733–10753, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10733-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10733-2013, 2013
N. Voisin, H. Li, D. Ward, M. Huang, M. Wigmosta, and L. R. Leung
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3605–3622, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3605-2013, 2013
Y. Ke, L. R. Leung, M. Huang, and H. Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1609–1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1609-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1609-2013, 2013
H. Wan, P. J. Rasch, K. Zhang, J. Kazil, and L. R. Leung
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 861–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-861-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-861-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Earth system change: climate prediction
Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs
Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates
Investigation of the extreme wet–cold compound events changes between 2025–2049 and 1980–2004 using regional simulations in Greece
Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction system
Resilience of UK crop yields to compound climate change
Emergent constraints for the climate system as effective parameters of bulk differential equations
Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts
Performance based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe
A non-stationary extreme-value approach for climate projection ensembles: application to snow loads in the French Alps
Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100
Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble
Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles
Is time a variable like the others in multivariate statistical downscaling and bias correction?
Trivial improvements in predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of the global carbon cycle
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point
Bayesian estimation of Earth's climate sensitivity and transient climate response from observational warming and heat content datasets
Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one
Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data
Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
Multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations: which benefits for which losses?
Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur
The impact of regional climate model formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in Africa
Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse
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Winter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation in southern Ontario
Investigating ENSO and its teleconnections under climate change in an ensemble view – a new perspective
Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018
September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach
ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing
Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake
A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints
Seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 models
Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions
Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble
Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change
Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal
Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols
Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties
Return levels of temperature extremes in southern Pakistan
On the meaning of independence in climate science
Minimal change of thermal continentality in Slovakia within the period 1961–2013
Lifetime of soil moisture perturbations in a coupled land–atmosphere simulation
Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023, 2023
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We present a simple system to forecast the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). We use atmospheric circulation as input to our system. We found a good-skill forecast of the MJO amplitude within 40 d using this methodology. Comparing our results with ECMWF and machine learning forecasts confirmed the good skill of our system.
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, 2023
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For the first time, our decadal prediction system based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model enables prognostic atmospheric CO2 with an interactive carbon cycle. The evolution of CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth is reconstructed well by assimilating data products; retrospective predictions show high confidence in predicting changes in the next year. The Earth system predictions provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.
Aobo Liu, John C. Moore, and Yating Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023, 2023
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Permafrost thaws and releases carbon (C) as the Arctic warms. Most earth system models (ESMs) have poor estimates of C stored now, so their future C losses are much lower than using the permafrost C model with climate inputs from six ESMs. Bias-corrected soil temperatures and plant productivity plus geoengineering lowering global temperatures from a no-mitigation baseline scenario to a moderate emissions level keep C in the soil worth about USD 0–70 (mean 20) trillion in climate damages by 2100.
Yiyu Zheng, Maria Rugenstein, Patrick Pieper, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, and Johanna Baehr
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1611–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022, 2022
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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the dominant climatic phenomena in the equatorial Pacific. Understanding and predicting how ENSO might change in a warmer climate is both societally and scientifically important. We use 1000-year-long simulations from seven climate models to analyze ENSO in an idealized stable climate. We show that ENSO will be weaker and last shorter under the warming, while the skill of ENSO prediction will unlikely change.
Iason Markantonis, Diamando Vlachogiannis, Athanasios Sfetsos, and Ioannis Kioutsioukis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1491–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1491-2022, 2022
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This work focuses on the study of daily wet–cold compound events in Greece in the period November–April. We firstly study the historic period 1980–2004 in which we validate projection models with observations. Then we compare the model results with future period 2025–2049 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The aim of the study is to calculate the probability of the events and to locate the areas where those are higher and how the probabilities will change at the future.
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Pablo Ortega, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Margarida Samsó, and Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022, 2022
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Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present a novel approach to reduce such uncertainty by constraining decadal-scale variability in the projections using observations. The constrained ensembles show significant added value over the unconstrained ensemble in predicting global climate 2 decades ahead. We also show the applicability of regional constraints for attributing predictability to certain ocean regions.
Louise J. Slater, Chris Huntingford, Richard F. Pywell, John W. Redhead, and Elizabeth J. Kendon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1377–1396, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1377-2022, 2022
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This work considers how wheat yields are affected by weather conditions during the three main wheat growth stages in the UK. Impacts are strongest in years with compound weather extremes across multiple growth stages. Future climate projections are beneficial for wheat yields, on average, but indicate a high risk of unseen weather conditions which farmers may struggle to adapt to and mitigate against.
Chris Huntingford, Peter M. Cox, Mark S. Williamson, Joseph J. Clarke, and Paul D. L. Ritchie
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-43, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
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Emergent Constraints (ECs) reduce the spread of projections between climate models. ECs estimate changes to climate features impacting adaptation policy, and with this high profile, the method is under scrutiny. Asking “What is an EC?”, we suggest they are often the discovery of parameters that characterise hidden large-scale equations that climate models solve implicitly. We present this conceptually via two examples. Our analysis implies possible new paths to link ECs and physical processes.
Amy H. Peace, Ben B. B. Booth, Leighton A. Regayre, Ken S. Carslaw, David M. H. Sexton, Céline J. W. Bonfils, and John W. Rostron
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1215–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022, 2022
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Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have been linked to driving climate responses such as shifts in the location of tropical rainfall. However, the interaction of aerosols with climate remains one of the most uncertain aspects of climate modelling and limits our ability to predict future climate change. We use an ensemble of climate model simulations to investigate what impact the large uncertainty in how aerosols interact with climate has on predicting future tropical rainfall shifts.
Tamzin Emily Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-31, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
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We carry out an assessment of an ensemble of general climate models (CMIP6), based on the ability of the models to represent the key physical process that are important for representing the European climate. Filtering the models with the assessment leads to more of the models with less global warming being removed, and this shifts the lower part of the projected temperature range towards greater warming. This is in contrast to the affect of weighting the ensemble using global temperature trends.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1059–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, 2022
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Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
Ole Bøssing Christensen, Erik Kjellström, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, and Hans Eberhard Markus Meier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 133–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, 2022
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The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change, whose impacts could easily exacerbate biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. Models show a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the south during summer. New results improve estimates of future climate change.
Guillaume Evin, Samuel Somot, and Benoit Hingray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1543–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021, 2021
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This research paper proposes an assessment of mean climate change responses and related uncertainties over Europe for mean seasonal temperature and total seasonal precipitation. An advanced statistical approach is applied to a large ensemble of 87 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX projections. For the first time, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the relative contribution of GCMs and RCMs, RCP scenarios, and internal variability to the total variance of a very large ensemble.
Stefanie Talento and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1275–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021, 2021
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We propose a model for glacial cycles and produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years. Under natural conditions, the next glacial inception would most likely occur ∼50 kyr after present. We show that fossil-fuel CO2 releases can have an extremely long-term effect. Potentially achievable CO2 anthropogenic emissions during the next centuries will most likely provoke ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere landmasses throughout the next half a million years.
Yoann Robin and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1253–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1253-2021, 2021
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We propose a new multivariate downscaling and bias correction approach called
time-shifted multivariate bias correction, which aims to correct temporal dependencies in addition to inter-variable and spatial ones. Our method is evaluated in a
perfect model experimentcontext where simulations are used as pseudo-observations. The results show a large reduction of the biases in the temporal properties, while inter-variable and spatial dependence structures are still correctly adjusted.
Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, 2021
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Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
Johannes Lohmann, Daniele Castellana, Peter D. Ditlevsen, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 819–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021, 2021
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Tipping of one climate subsystem could trigger a cascade of subsequent tipping points and even global-scale climate tipping. Sequential shifts of atmosphere, sea ice and ocean have been recorded in proxy archives of past climate change. Based on this we propose a conceptual model for abrupt climate changes of the last glacial. Here, rate-induced tipping enables tipping cascades in systems with relatively weak coupling. An early warning signal is proposed that may detect such a tipping.
Philip Goodwin and B. B. Cael
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 709–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021, 2021
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Climate sensitivityis a key measure of how sensitive Earth's climate is to human release of greenhouse gasses, such as from fossil fuels. However, there is still uncertainty as to the value of climate sensitivity, in part because different climate feedbacks operate over multiple timescales. This study assesses hundreds of millions of climate simulations against historical observations to reduce uncertainty in climate sensitivity and future climate warming.
Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, Walter R. Tribett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021, 2021
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We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current rate of human release of CO2, total cumulative emissions will pass the 66 % likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5° or 2°C in about 10 and 35 years, respectively. We also show that complex climate models often used to guide policy tend to warm faster than observed over the past few decades. To achieve the Paris Climate Agreement, CO2 and CH4 emissions must be severely curtailed in the next decade.
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, 2021
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This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature but show poor predictive capacity in the subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
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Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, 2020
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As an important measure of climate change, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) describes the change in surface temperature after a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) show a wide range in ECS. Emergent constraints are a technique to reduce uncertainties in ECS with observational data. Emergent constraints developed with data from CMIP phase 5 show reduced skill and higher ECS ranges when applied to CMIP6 data.
J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020, 2020
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We augment an energy balance model with a novel measure of the oceans' multidecadal temperatures cycles to assess the contributions of model forcings and natural variability to the so-called hiatus in global warming. The model partially explains the recent slowdown and explains nearly all of the subsequent warming. The natural cycle suggests the possibility of a much longer hiatus over roughly 2023–2061.
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, and Antje Weisheimer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1033–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020, 2020
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This study examines how the output of large single-model ensembles can be calibrated using observational data to provide improved future projections over Europe. Using an out-of-sample
imperfect modeltest, in which calibration techniques are applied to individual climate model realisations, these techniques are shown to generally improve the reliability of European climate projections for the next 40 years, particularly for regional surface temperature.
Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020, 2020
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In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects of historical climate and their degree of interdependence. Our method is found to increase projection skill and to correct for structurally similar models. The weighted end-of-century mean warming (2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014) is 3.7 °C with a likely (66 %) range of 3.1 to 4.6 °C for the strong climate change scenario SSP5-8.5; this is a reduction of 0.4 °C compared with the unweighted mean.
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020, 2020
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One of the key questions in climate science is how much more heating we will get for a given rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A new generation of models showed that this might be more than previously expected. Comparing the new models to observed temperature rise since 1970, we show that there is no need to revise the estimate upwards. Air pollution, whose effect on climate warming is poorly understood, stopped rising, allowing us to better constrain the greenhouse gas signal.
Bastien François, Mathieu Vrac, Alex J. Cannon, Yoann Robin, and Denis Allard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 537–562, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020, 2020
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Recently, multivariate bias correction (MBC) methods designed to adjust climate simulations have been proposed. However, they use different approaches, leading potentially to different results. Therefore, this study intends to intercompare four existing MBC methods to provide end users with aid in choosing such methods for their applications. To do so, a wide range of evaluation criteria have been used to assess the ability of MBC methods to correct statistical properties of climate models.
Hideo Shiogama, Ryuichi Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Satoru Chatani, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, and Y. T. Eunice Lo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020, 2020
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Based on climate simulations, we suggested that historical warming increased chances of drought exceeding the severe 2015 event in equatorial Asia due to El Niño. The fire and fire emissions of CO2/PM2.5 will largely increase at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. If global warming reaches 3 °C, as is expected from the current mitigation policies, chances of fire and CO2/PM2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 event become approximately 100 %. Future climate policy has to consider these climate change effects.
Minchao Wu, Grigory Nikulin, Erik Kjellström, Danijel Belušić, Colin Jones, and David Lindstedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 377–394, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020, 2020
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Regional Climate Models constitute a downscaling tool to provide high-resolution data for impact and adaptation studies. However, there is no unique definition of the added value of downscaling as it depends on many factors. We investigate the impact of spatial resolution and model formulation on downscaled rainfall in Africa. Our results show that improvements in downscaled rainfall compared to the driving reanalysis are often related to model formulation and not always to higher resolution.
James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020, 2020
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We explore the implicit assumptions that underlie many published probabilistic estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity – that is, the amount the climate will warm under a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. We demonstrate that many such estimates have made assumptions that would be difficult to justify and show how the calculations can be repeated in a more defensible manner. Our results show some significant differences from previous calculations.
Stella Todzo, Adeline Bichet, and Arona Diedhiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 319–328, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-319-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-319-2020, 2020
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This study uses climate projections over West Africa to investigate the future changes in different aspects of its hydrological cycle. Over the 21st century, temperatures are expected to increase at a faster rate (+0.5 °C per decade) than the global average (+0.3 °C per decade), leading to an intensification of the hydrological cycle on average of +11 % per °C over the Sahel (more intense precipitation and longer dry spells) and +3 % per °C over the Guinea Coast (more intense precipitation).
Olivier Champagne, Martin Leduc, Paulin Coulibaly, and M. Altaf Arain
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 301–318, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-301-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-301-2020, 2020
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Southern Ontario has seen more high flows in winter recently due to earlier snowmelt. We show that 10 mm of daily rain and temperature higher than 5 °C are necessary conditions to generate winter high flows in the historical period. These conditions are associated with high pressure on the east coast bringing warm and wet conditions from the south. In the future, as snowfall decreases, warm events will generate less high flows, while rainfall will become a greater high-flow contributor.
Tímea Haszpra, Mátyás Herein, and Tamás Bódai
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 267–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-267-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-267-2020, 2020
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We investigate the changes in the ENSO phenomenon and the alterations of its precipitation-related teleconnections in the CESM-LE. To avoid the disadvantages of the subjective choices of traditional temporal methods, we use an ensemble-based snapshot framework providing instantaneous quantities computed over the ensemble dimension of the simulation. We find that ENSO teleconnections undergo considerable changes, and the ENSO amplitude remarkably increases by 2100.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019
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The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
Monica Ionita, Klaus Grosfeld, Patrick Scholz, Renate Treffeisen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, 2019
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Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
Gab Abramowitz, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019
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Best estimates of future climate projections typically rely on a range of climate models from different international research institutions. However, it is unclear how independent these different estimates are, and, for example, the degree to which their agreement implies robustness. This work presents a review of the varied and disparate attempts to quantify and address model dependence within multi-model climate projection ensembles.
Nicole S. Lovenduski, Stephen G. Yeager, Keith Lindsay, and Matthew C. Long
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 45–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019, 2019
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This paper shows that the absorption of carbon dioxide by the ocean is predictable several years in advance. This is important because fossil-fuel-derived carbon dioxide is largely responsible for anthropogenic global warming and because carbon dioxide emission management and global carbon cycle budgeting exercises can benefit from foreknowledge of ocean carbon absorption. The promising results from this new forecast system justify the need for additional oceanic observations.
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018, 2018
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State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate change. The technique of
emergent constraintsuses observations of current climate to improve those predictions, using relationships between different climate models. Our paper first classifies the different uses of the technique, and continues with proposing a mathematical justification for their use. We also highlight when the application of emergent constraints might give biased predictions.
Bo Huang, Ulrich Cubasch, and Christopher Kadow
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 985–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018, 2018
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We find that CMIP5 models show more significant improvement in predicting zonal winds with initialisation than without initialisation based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM. Given the initial conditions, two models improve the seasonal prediction skill of the EASM, while one model decreases it. The models have different responses to initialisation due to their ability to depict the EASM–ESNO coupled mode.
Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Holger Pohlmann, and Claudia Timmreck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 701–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018, 2018
Jiawei Liu, Haiming Xu, and Jiechun Deng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 427–439, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-427-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-427-2018, 2018
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A novel method based on
present–futurerelationship in observed climate and model-simulated future climate is applied to give more reliable projections of East Asian summer monsoon intensity and associated precipitation changes at 1.5 and 2 °C warming levels. Projected future changes suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity.
Michael Wehner, Dáithí Stone, Dann Mitchell, Hideo Shiogama, Erich Fischer, Lise S. Graff, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Ludwig Lierhammer, Benjamin Sanderson, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 299–311, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018, 2018
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The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change challenged the scientific community to describe the impacts of stabilizing the global temperature at its 21st Conference of Parties. A specific target of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels had not been seriously considered by the climate modeling community prior to the Paris Agreement. This paper analyzes heat waves in simulations designed for this target. We find there are reductions in extreme temperature compared to a 2 °C target.
Peter Greve, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 227–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-227-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-227-2018, 2018
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Assessing projected hydroclimatological changes is crucial, but associated with large uncertainties. We statistically assess here the response of precipitation and water availability to global temperature change, enabling us to estimate the significance of drying/wetting tendencies under anthropogenic climate change. We further show that opting for a 1.5 K warming target just slightly influences the mean response but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes.
Dana Ehlert and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 197–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018, 2018
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This study uses a global climate model to explore the extent to which sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the ocean is reversible if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) declines. It is found that sea level continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to the pre-industrial level for over thousand years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration.
Michael F. Wehner, Kevin A. Reed, Burlen Loring, Dáithí Stone, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 187–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018, 2018
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The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios using a high-resolution global climate model. We find more frequent and intense tropical cyclones, but a reduction in weaker storms.
Nadja Herger, Gab Abramowitz, Reto Knutti, Oliver Angélil, Karsten Lehmann, and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 135–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018, 2018
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Users presented with large multi-model ensembles commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate, ignoring the issue of near replication of some climate models. We present an efficient and flexible tool that finds a subset of models with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments.
Maida Zahid, Richard Blender, Valerio Lucarini, and Maria Caterina Bramati
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1263–1278, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1263-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1263-2017, 2017
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The southern part of Pakistan (Sindh province) has been exposed to frequent and intense temperature extremes recently and is highly vulnerable to their impacts due to lack of information on recurrence of extremes. In this paper for the first time we estimated the return levels of daily maximum temperatures and daily maximum wet-bulb temperatures over the different return periods in Sindh, which would help the local administrations to prioritize the regions in terms of adaptations.
James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 211–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-211-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-211-2017, 2017
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The concept of independence has been frequently raised in climate science, but has rarely been defined and discussed in a theoretically robust and quantifiable manner. Improved understanding of this topic is critical to better understanding of climate change. In this paper, we introduce a unifying approach based on the statistical definition of independence, and illustrate with simple examples how it can be applied to practical questions.
Jozef Vilček, Jaroslav Škvarenina, Jaroslav Vido, Paulína Nalevanková, Radoslav Kandrík, and Jana Škvareninová
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 735–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-735-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-735-2016, 2016
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Thermal continentality plays an important role not only in the basic characterisation of the climate in particular regions but also in the phytogeographic distribution of plants and ecosystem formation. Due to ongoing climate change, questions surrounding the changes of thermal continentality are very relevant. Our results show that the continentality of Slovakia increased in the period 1961 to 2013; however, this trend is not significant.
T. Stacke and S. Hagemann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-1-2016, 2016
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This study evaluates the lifetime of soil moisture perturbations using an atmosphere-land GCM. We find memory of up to 9 months for root zone soil moisture. Interactions with other surface states result in significant but short-lived anomalies in surface temperature and more stable anomalies in leaf carbon content. As these anomalies can recur repeatedly, e.g. due to interactions with a deep-soil moisture reservoir, we conclude that soil moisture initialization may impact climate predictions.
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Short summary
We address the question of how large an initial condition ensemble of climate model simulations should be if we are concerned with accurately projecting future changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We find that for most cases (and both models considered), an ensemble of 20–25 members is sufficient for many extreme metrics, spatial scales and time horizons. This may leave computational resources to tackle other uncertainties in climate model simulations with our ensembles.
We address the question of how large an initial condition ensemble of climate model simulations...
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