|Second review of Extreme Metrics from Large Ensembles: Investigating the Effects of|
Ensemble Size on their Estimates
The authors have largely responded to and made changes to my original comments, I recommend minor revisions.
My main concern is still the claim that 20-25 members is enough given that this is ½ the ensemble size. The argument on lines 10, 391 and 395 seems to be on contradiction with your argument on line 185 and Milinski et al.
46 – you should cite both Hawkins & Sutton papers: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6
69 – this is not completely true, this is partially addressed in the CanESM2 setup
125 – I am still unclear on what each term in the equation is
133 – issue with formatting
251 – should this paragraph be in the methods?
369 – why do we expect this?
391 – should read ‘ we compared;
417 – should be e.g. Knutti as there are many studies on this topic
Papers that also look at ensemble size that might be worth citing in the introduction. The authors can decide if these are useful.
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H.: Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability, Clim. Dynam., 38, 527–546, 2012
Olonscheck, D. and Notz, D.: Consistently Estimating Internal Climate Variability from Climate Model Simulations, J. Climate, 30, 9555–9573, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0428.1, 2017.
Li, H. and Ilyina, T.: Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 916–925, 2018
Steinman, B. A., Frankcombe, L. M., Mann, M. E., Miller, S. K., and England, M. H.: Response to Comment on “Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures”, Science, 350, 1326, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac5208, 2015
Pausata, F. S. R., Grini, A., Caballero, R., Hannachi, A., and Seland, Ø.: High-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Norwegian Earth System Model: the effect of different initial conditions and of the ensemble size, Tellus B, 11, 2050–2069, 2015
Bittner, M., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., and Sienz, F.: Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9324–9332, 2016
Daron, J. D. and Stainforth, D. A.: On predicting climate under climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034021, 2013
Drótos, G., Bódai, T., and Tél, T.: On the importance of the convergence to climate attractors, Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top., 226, 2031–2038, https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2017-70045-7, 2017
Maher, N., Matei, D., Milinski, S., and Marotzke, J.: ENSO change in climate projections: forced response or internal variability?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 11390–11398, 2018
Table 1 – did you try bootstrapping with replacement? Is the colour or the underline important as you refer to both?
Figure 3/4 – add % on colourbar
Figures 5/6 are still really small
Figure 9 does not show much, did you consider zooming in on just the Arctic?