Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1427–1501, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1427–1501, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021

Research article 06 Dec 2021

Research article | 06 Dec 2021

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Claudia Tebaldi et al.

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2021-53', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Jul 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Claudia Tebaldi, 26 Aug 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on esd-2021-53', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Aug 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Claudia Tebaldi, 26 Aug 2021

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (27 Aug 2021) by Christian Franzke
AR by Claudia Tebaldi on behalf of the Authors (27 Aug 2021)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (31 Aug 2021) by Christian Franzke
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (21 Sep 2021)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (28 Sep 2021)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (28 Sep 2021) by Christian Franzke
AR by Claudia Tebaldi on behalf of the Authors (01 Oct 2021)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (02 Oct 2021) by Christian Franzke
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Short summary
We address the question of how large an initial condition ensemble of climate model simulations should be if we are concerned with accurately projecting future changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We find that for most cases (and both models considered), an ensemble of 20–25 members is sufficient for many extreme metrics, spatial scales and time horizons. This may leave computational resources to tackle other uncertainties in climate model simulations with our ensembles.
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