Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Research article
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06 Dec 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 06 Dec 2021

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Claudia Tebaldi, Kalyn Dorheim, Michael Wehner, and Ruby Leung

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Latest update: 29 May 2025
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Short summary
We address the question of how large an initial condition ensemble of climate model simulations should be if we are concerned with accurately projecting future changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We find that for most cases (and both models considered), an ensemble of 20–25 members is sufficient for many extreme metrics, spatial scales and time horizons. This may leave computational resources to tackle other uncertainties in climate model simulations with our ensembles.
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