Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1191–1237, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1191-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1191–1237, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1191-2021

Research article 23 Nov 2021

Research article | 23 Nov 2021

Parameter uncertainty dominates C-cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st century

Thomas Luke Smallman et al.

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Our study provides a novel assessment of model parameter, structure and climate change scenario uncertainty contribution to future predictions of the Brazilian terrestrial carbon stocks to 2100. We calibrated (2001–2017) five models of the terrestrial C cycle of varied structure. The calibrated models were then projected to 2100 under multiple climate change scenarios. Parameter uncertainty dominates overall uncertainty, being ~ 40 times that of either model structure or climate change scenario.
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