Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1191–1237, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1191-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1191–1237, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1191-2021

Research article 23 Nov 2021

Research article | 23 Nov 2021

Parameter uncertainty dominates C-cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st century

Thomas Luke Smallman et al.

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Defend the conclusions despite the large posterior uncertainty.', Thomas Wutzler, 31 May 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Thomas Smallman, 24 Aug 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on esd-2021-17', Anonymous Referee #2, 21 Jun 2021
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Thomas Smallman, 24 Aug 2021

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (24 Sep 2021) by Kirsten Thonicke
AR by Thomas Smallman on behalf of the Authors (27 Sep 2021)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (14 Oct 2021) by Kirsten Thonicke
AR by Thomas Smallman on behalf of the Authors (14 Oct 2021)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes
ED: Publish as is (15 Oct 2021) by Kirsten Thonicke
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Short summary
Our study provides a novel assessment of model parameter, structure and climate change scenario uncertainty contribution to future predictions of the Brazilian terrestrial carbon stocks to 2100. We calibrated (2001–2017) five models of the terrestrial C cycle of varied structure. The calibrated models were then projected to 2100 under multiple climate change scenarios. Parameter uncertainty dominates overall uncertainty, being ~ 40 times that of either model structure or climate change scenario.
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