Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1191-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1191-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Research article
 | 
23 Nov 2021
Research article |  | 23 Nov 2021

Parameter uncertainty dominates C-cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st century

Thomas Luke Smallman, David Thomas Milodowski, Eráclito Sousa Neto, Gerbrand Koren, Jean Ometto, and Mathew Williams

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Short summary
Our study provides a novel assessment of model parameter, structure and climate change scenario uncertainty contribution to future predictions of the Brazilian terrestrial carbon stocks to 2100. We calibrated (2001–2017) five models of the terrestrial C cycle of varied structure. The calibrated models were then projected to 2100 under multiple climate change scenarios. Parameter uncertainty dominates overall uncertainty, being ~ 40 times that of either model structure or climate change scenario.
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