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ESD | Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 357–376, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 357–376, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 23 Apr 2020

Research article | 23 Apr 2020

Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators

Sam S. Rabin et al.

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Cited articles

Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008-10, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012. a, b, c
Alexander, P., Rabin, S. S., Anthoni, P., Henry, R., Pugh, T. A. M., Rounsevell, M. D. A., and Arneth, A.: Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 2791–2809, 2018. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Arneth, A., Miller, P. A., Scholze, M., Hickler, T., Schurgers, G., Smith, B., and Prentice, I. C.: CO2 inhibition of global terrestrial isoprene emissions: Potential implications for atmospheric chemistry, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, 73–75, 2007a. a
Arneth, A., Niinemets, Ü., Pressley, S., Bäck, J., Hari, P., Karl, T., Noe, S., Prentice, I. C., Serça, D., Hickler, T., Wolf, A., and Smith, B.: Process-based estimates of terrestrial ecosystem isoprene emissions: incorporating the effects of a direct CO2-isoprene interaction, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 31–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-31-2007, 2007b. a
Arneth, A., Monson, R. K., Schurgers, G., Niinemets, Ü, and Palmer, P. I.: Why are estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions so similar (and why is this not so for monoterpenes)?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 4605–4620, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-4605-2008, 2008. a
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We modeled how agricultural performance and demand will shift as a result of climate change and population growth, and how the resulting adaptations will affect aspects of the Earth system upon which humanity depends. We found that the impacts of land use and management can have stronger impacts than climate change on some such ecosystem services. The overall impacts are strongest in future scenarios with more severe climate change, high population growth, and/or resource-intensive lifestyles.
We modeled how agricultural performance and demand will shift as a result of climate change and...
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