Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Apr 2020
Research article |
| 23 Apr 2020
| 23 Apr 2020
Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Peter Alexander
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Security, The Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Roslyn Henry
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Peter Anthoni
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Thomas A. M. Pugh
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
Mark Rounsevell
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Almut Arneth
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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- Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon A. Bayer et al. 10.1073/pnas.2220371120
- Assessing the impact of strictly protecting 30%–50% of global land on carbon dynamics in natural and agricultural ecosystems H. Camargo‐Alvarez et al. 10.1002/ppp3.10612
- Ensemble projection of global isoprene emissions by the end of 21st century using CMIP6 models Y. Cao et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118766
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15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Optimizing land use patterns to improve the contribution of land use planning to carbon neutrality target L. Li et al. 10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106959
- A framework for assessing the circular economy potential in the water and agriculture sectors in Türkiye through the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus E. Demir & E. Alp 10.1016/j.spc.2025.01.009
- Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services A. Bayer et al. 10.5194/esd-12-327-2021
- A Method for the Definition of Local Vulnerability Domains to Climate Change and Relate Mapping. Two Case Studies in Southern Italy M. Francini et al. 10.3390/su12229454
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- Agent‐Based Modeling of Alternative Futures in the British Land Use System C. Brown et al. 10.1029/2022EF002905
- Toward quantification of the feasible potential of land-based carbon dioxide removal O. Perkins et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.11.011
- How different COVID-19 recovery paths affect human health, environmental sustainability, and food affordability: a modelling study J. Maire et al. 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00144-9
- Introducing LandScaleR: A novel method for spatial downscaling of land use projections T. Woodman et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105826
- A Review of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds from Plants: Research Progress and Future Prospects R. Luo et al. 10.3390/toxics13050364
- High energy and fertilizer prices are more damaging than food export curtailment from Ukraine and Russia for food prices, health and the environment P. Alexander et al. 10.1038/s43016-022-00659-9
- Benefits and trade-offs of optimizing global land use for food, water, and carbon A. Bayer et al. 10.1073/pnas.2220371120
- Assessing the impact of strictly protecting 30%–50% of global land on carbon dynamics in natural and agricultural ecosystems H. Camargo‐Alvarez et al. 10.1002/ppp3.10612
- Ensemble projection of global isoprene emissions by the end of 21st century using CMIP6 models Y. Cao et al. 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118766
- Global and regional health and food security under strict conservation scenarios R. Henry et al. 10.1038/s41893-021-00844-x
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Latest update: 11 Jul 2025
Short summary
We modeled how agricultural performance and demand will shift as a result of climate change and population growth, and how the resulting adaptations will affect aspects of the Earth system upon which humanity depends. We found that the impacts of land use and management can have stronger impacts than climate change on some such
ecosystem services. The overall impacts are strongest in future scenarios with more severe climate change, high population growth, and/or resource-intensive lifestyles.
We modeled how agricultural performance and demand will shift as a result of climate change and...
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