Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-539-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-539-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Sep 2019
Research article |
| 06 Sep 2019
| 06 Sep 2019
Ocean phosphorus inventory: large uncertainties in future projections on millennial timescales and their consequences for ocean deoxygenation
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker
Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Angela Landolfi
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker
Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Andreas Oschlies
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker
Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Klaus Wallmann
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker
Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Andrew W. Dale
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker
Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
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Jan Lüdke, Marcus Dengler, Stefan Sommer, David Clemens, Sören Thomsen, Gerd Krahmann, Andrew W. Dale, Eric P. Achterberg, and Martin Visbeck
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Markus Pahlow, Chia-Te Chien, Lionel A. Arteaga, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4663–4690, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4663-2020, 2020
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Chia-Te Chien, Markus Pahlow, Markus Schartau, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4691–4712, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4691-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4691-2020, 2020
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Alexandra N. Loginova, Andrew W. Dale, Frédéric A. C. Le Moigne, Sören Thomsen, Stefan Sommer, David Clemens, Klaus Wallmann, and Anja Engel
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Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, Andrew H. MacDougall, Michael Eby, Nesha Wright, Katrin J. Meissner, Andreas Oschlies, Andreas Schmittner, Alexander J. MacIsaac, H. Damon Matthews, and Kirsten Zickfeld
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Sabine Mathesius, Julia Getzlaff, Heiner Dietze, Andreas Oschlies, and Markus Schartau
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1775–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1775-2020, 2020
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Anna Plass, Christian Schlosser, Stefan Sommer, Andrew W. Dale, Eric P. Achterberg, and Florian Scholz
Biogeosciences, 17, 3685–3704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3685-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3685-2020, 2020
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Iris Kriest, Paul Kähler, Wolfgang Koeve, Karin Kvale, Volkmar Sauerland, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 17, 3057–3082, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3057-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3057-2020, 2020
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Constants of global biogeochemical ocean models are often tuned
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Sebastian Beil, Wolfgang Kuhnt, Ann Holbourn, Florian Scholz, Julian Oxmann, Klaus Wallmann, Janne Lorenzen, Mohamed Aquit, and El Hassane Chellai
Clim. Past, 16, 757–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-757-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-757-2020, 2020
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Sonja Geilert, Patricia Grasse, Kristin Doering, Klaus Wallmann, Claudia Ehlert, Florian Scholz, Martin Frank, Mark Schmidt, and Christian Hensen
Biogeosciences, 17, 1745–1763, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1745-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1745-2020, 2020
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Fabian Reith, Wolfgang Koeve, David P. Keller, Julia Getzlaff, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 711–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-711-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-711-2019, 2019
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This modeling study is the first one to look at the suitability and collateral effects of direct CO2 injection into the deep ocean as a means to bridge the gap between CO2 emissions and climate impacts of an intermediate CO2 emission scenario and a temperature target on a millennium timescale, such as the 1.5 °C climate target of the Paris Agreement.
Daniela Niemeyer, Iris Kriest, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 16, 3095–3111, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3095-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3095-2019, 2019
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Recent studies suggest spatial variations of the marine particle flux length scale. Using a global biogeochemical ocean model, we investigate whether changes in particle size and size-dependent sinking can explain this variation. We address uncertainties by varying aggregate properties and circulation. Both aspects have an impact on the representation of nutrients, oxygen and oxygen minimum zones. The formation and sinking of large aggregates in productive areas lead to deeper flux penetration.
Yonss Saranga José, Lothar Stramma, Sunke Schmidtko, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-155, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-155, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
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In situ observations along the Peruvian and Chilean coasts have exhibited variability in the water column oxygen concentration. This variability, which is attributed to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), might have implication on the vertical extension of the Eastern Tropical South Pacific (ETSP) oxygen minimum zone. Here using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model, we provide new insights into how ENSO variability affects the vertical extension of the oxygen-poor waters of the ETSP.
Karin F. Kvale, Katherine E. Turner, Angela Landolfi, and Katrin J. Meissner
Biogeosciences, 16, 1019–1034, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1019-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1019-2019, 2019
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Drivers motivating the evolution of calcifying phytoplankton are poorly understood. We explore differences in global ocean chemistry with and without calcifiers during rapid climate changes. We find the presence of phytoplankton calcifiers stabilizes the volume of low oxygen regions and consequently stabilizes the concentration of nitrate, which is an important nutrient required for photosynthesis. By stabilizing nitrate concentrations, calcifiers improve their growth conditions.
Olaf Duteil, Andreas Oschlies, and Claus W. Böning
Biogeosciences, 15, 7111–7126, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7111-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7111-2018, 2018
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Oxygen-depleted regions of the Pacific Ocean are currently expanding, which is threatening marine habitats. Based on numerical simulations, we show that the decrease in the intensity of the trade winds and the subsequent slowdown of the oceanic currents lead to a reduction in oxygen supply. Our study suggests that the prevailing positive conditions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation since 1975, a major source of natural variability, may explain a significant part of the current deoxygenation.
Marine Bretagnon, Aurélien Paulmier, Véronique Garçon, Boris Dewitte, Séréna Illig, Nathalie Leblond, Laurent Coppola, Fernando Campos, Federico Velazco, Christos Panagiotopoulos, Andreas Oschlies, J. Martin Hernandez-Ayon, Helmut Maske, Oscar Vergara, Ivonne Montes, Philippe Martinez, Edgardo Carrasco, Jacques Grelet, Olivier Desprez-De-Gesincourt, Christophe Maes, and Lionel Scouarnec
Biogeosciences, 15, 5093–5111, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5093-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5093-2018, 2018
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In oxygen minimum zone, the fate of the organic matter is a key question as the low oxygen condition would preserve the OM and thus enhance the biological carbon pump while the high microbial activity would foster the remineralisation and the greenhouse gases emission. To investigate this paradigm, sediment traps were deployed off Peru. We pointed out the influence of the oxygenation as well as the organic matter quantity and quality on the carbon transfer efficiency in the oxygen minimum zone.
Konstantin Stolpovsky, Andrew W. Dale, and Klaus Wallmann
Biogeosciences, 15, 3391–3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3391-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3391-2018, 2018
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The paper describes a new way to parameterize G-type models in marine sediments using data about reactivity of organic carbon sinking to the seafloor.
Volkmar Sauerland, Ulrike Löptien, Claudine Leonhard, Andreas Oschlies, and Anand Srivastav
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1181–1198, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1181-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1181-2018, 2018
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We present a concept to prove that a parametric model is well calibrated, i.e., that changes of its free parameters cannot lead to a much better model–data misfit anymore. The intention is motivated by the fact that calibrating global biogeochemical ocean models is important for assessment and inter-model comparison but computationally expensive.
Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 15–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, 2018
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The Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method applies statistical information to systematically select, transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the Earth system state. We show that due to changing climate forcing, such as anthropogenic climate change, the ad hoc assessment indicators might need to be reevaluated. Within an iterative process, this method would allow us to select scientifically consistent and societally relevant assessment indicators.
Karin F. Kvale, Samar Khatiwala, Heiner Dietze, Iris Kriest, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2425–2445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2425-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2425-2017, 2017
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Computer models of ocean biology and chemistry are becoming increasingly complex, and thus more expensive, to run. One solution is to approximate the behaviour of the ocean physics and store that information outside of the model. That
offlineinformation can then be used to calculate a steady-state solution from the model's biology and chemistry, without waiting for a traditional
onlineintegration to complete. We show this offline method reproduces online results and is 100 times faster.
James C. Orr, Raymond G. Najjar, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, John L. Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Jean-Claude Dutay, Heather Graven, Stephen M. Griffies, Jasmin G. John, Fortunat Joos, Ingeborg Levin, Keith Lindsay, Richard J. Matear, Galen A. McKinley, Anne Mouchet, Andreas Oschlies, Anastasia Romanou, Reiner Schlitzer, Alessandro Tagliabue, Toste Tanhua, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017
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The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is a model comparison effort under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Its physical component is described elsewhere in this special issue. Here we describe its ocean biogeochemical component (OMIP-BGC), detailing simulation protocols and analysis diagnostics. Simulations focus on ocean carbon, other biogeochemical tracers, air-sea exchange of CO2 and related gases, and chemical tracers used to evaluate modeled circulation.
Daniela Niemeyer, Tronje P. Kemena, Katrin J. Meissner, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-357-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-357-2017, 2017
Markus Schartau, Philip Wallhead, John Hemmings, Ulrike Löptien, Iris Kriest, Shubham Krishna, Ben A. Ward, Thomas Slawig, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 14, 1647–1701, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1647-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1647-2017, 2017
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Plankton models have become an integral part in marine ecosystem and biogeochemical research. These models differ in complexity and in their number of parameters. How values are assigned to parameters is essential. An overview of major methodologies of parameter estimation is provided. Aspects of parameter identification in the literature are diverse. Individual findings could be better synthesized if notation and expertise of the different scientific communities would be reasonably merged.
Yonss Saranga José, Heiner Dietze, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 14, 1349–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1349-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1349-2017, 2017
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This study aims to investigate the diverse subsurface nutrient patterns observed within anticyclonic eddies in the upwelling system off Peru. Two simulated anticyclonic eddies with opposing subsurface nitrate concentrations were analysed. The results show that diverse nutrient patterns within anticyclonic eddies are related to the presence of water mass from different origins at different depths, responding to variations in depth of the circulation strength at the edge of the eddy.
Iris Kriest, Volkmar Sauerland, Samar Khatiwala, Anand Srivastav, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 127–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-127-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-127-2017, 2017
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Global biogeochemical ocean models are subject to a high level of parametric uncertainty. This may be of consequence for their skill with respect to accurately describing features of the present ocean and their sensitivity to possible environmental changes. We present the first results from a framework that combines an offline biogeochemical tracer transport model with an estimation of distribution algorithm, calibrating six biogeochemical model parameters against observed oxygen and nutrients.
Fabian Reith, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 797–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-797-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-797-2016, 2016
Bei Su, Markus Pahlow, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 13, 4985–5001, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4985-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4985-2016, 2016
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Previously identified positive feedbacks within the nitrogen cycle in the eastern tropical South Pacific (ETSP) have challenged our understanding of the observed dynamics and stability of the nitrogen inventory. We present a box model analysis of the biological and biogeochemical relations in the ETSP among nitrogen deposition, benthic denitrification and phosphate regeneration. Our results suggest dominant stabilizing feedbacks tending to keep a balanced nitrogen inventory in the ETSP.
Jessica Gier, Stefan Sommer, Carolin R. Löscher, Andrew W. Dale, Ruth A. Schmitz, and Tina Treude
Biogeosciences, 13, 4065–4080, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4065-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4065-2016, 2016
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Benthic nitrogen fixation and sulfate reduction were investigated in the Peruvian oxygen minimum zone. The data suggest a coupling of both activities to a large extent, but that also sulfide and organic matter availability are controlling the benthic diazotrophy in this area. The molecular analysis confirms the presence of heterotrophic diazotrophs. This work improves our understanding of N cycling in OMZ sediments and the understanding of N sources in the marine environment.
Pei-Chuan Chuang, Megan B. Young, Andrew W. Dale, Laurence G. Miller, Jorge A. Herrera-Silveira, and Adina Paytan
Biogeosciences, 13, 2981–3001, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2981-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2981-2016, 2016
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A transport-reaction model was used to simulate porewater methane and sulfate concentrations. Model results and sediment slurry incubation experiments show high methane production rates supported by non-competitive substrates and ample dissolved and labile organic matter as well as methane from deeper sediment through bubbles dissolution and diffusion. The shallow methane production and accumulation depths in these sediments promote high methane fluxes to the water column and atmosphere.
Ulrike Lomnitz, Stefan Sommer, Andrew W. Dale, Carolin R. Löscher, Anna Noffke, Klaus Wallmann, and Christian Hensen
Biogeosciences, 13, 1367–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1367-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1367-2016, 2016
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The study presents a P budget including the P input from the water column, the P burial in the sediments, as well as the P release from the sediments. We found that the P input could not maintain the P release rates. Consideration of other P sources, e.g., terrigenous P and P released from the dissolution of Fe oxyhydroxides, showed that none of these can account for the missing P. Thus, it is likely that abundant sulfide-oxidizing bacteria release the missing P during our measurement period.
K. Wallmann, B. Schneider, and M. Sarnthein
Clim. Past, 12, 339–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-339-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-339-2016, 2016
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An Earth system model was set up and applied to evaluate the effects of sea-level change, ocean dynamics, and nutrient utilization on seawater composition and atmospheric pCO2 over the last glacial cycle. The model results strongly suggest that global sea-level change contributed significantly to the slow glacial decline in atmospheric pCO2 and the gradual pCO2 increase over the Holocene whereas the rapid deglacial pCO2 rise was induced by fast changes in ocean dynamics and nutrient utilization.
J. Maltby, S. Sommer, A. W. Dale, and T. Treude
Biogeosciences, 13, 283–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-283-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-283-2016, 2016
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The concurrence of methanogenesis and sulfate reduction was investigated in surface sediments (0–25cm b.s.f.) traversing the Peruvian margin. Surface methanogenesis was mainly based on non-competitive substrates to avoid competition with sulfate reducers. Accordingly, surface methanogenesis was mainly controlled by the availability of labile organic matter. The high relevance of surface methanogenesis especially on the shelf indicates its underestimated role within benthic methane budgeting.
P. Steeb, S. Krause, P. Linke, C. Hensen, A. W. Dale, M. Nuzzo, and T. Treude
Biogeosciences, 12, 6687–6706, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6687-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6687-2015, 2015
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We combined field, laboratory (sediment-flow-through system) and numerical modeling work to investigate cold seep sediments at Quespos Slide, offshore of Costa Rica. The results demonstrated the efficiency of the benthic methane filter and provided an estimate for its response time (ca. 170 days) to changes in fluid fluxes.
I. Kriest and A. Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2929–2957, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2929-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2929-2015, 2015
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We use a global model of oceanic P, N, and O2 cycles to investigate consequences of uncertainties in description of organic matter sinking, remineralization, denitrification, and N2-Fixation. After all biogeochemical and physical processes have been spun-up into a dynamically consistent steady-state, particle sinking and oxidant affinities of aerobic and anaerobic remineralization determine the extent of oxygen minimum zones, global nitrogen fluxes, and the oceanic nitrogen inventory.
W. Koeve, H. Wagner, P. Kähler, and A. Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2079–2094, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2079-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2079-2015, 2015
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The natural abundance of 14C in CO2 dissolved in seawater is often used to evaluate circulation and age in the ocean and in ocean models. We study limitations of using natural 14C to determine the time elapsed since water had contact with the atmosphere. We find that, globally, bulk 14C age is dominated by two equally important components, (1) the time component of circulation and (2) the “preformed 14C-age”. Considering preformed 14C-age is critical for an assessment of circulation in models.
L. Nickelsen, D. P. Keller, and A. Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1357–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1357-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1357-2015, 2015
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In this paper we find that including the marine cycle of the phytoplankton nutrient iron in a global climate model improves the agreement between observed and simulated nutrient concentrations in the ocean and that a better description of the source of iron from the sediment to the ocean is more important than that of iron-containing dust deposition. Finally, we find that the response of the iron cycle to climate warming affects the phytoplankton growth and nutrient cycles.
A. W. Dale, S. Sommer, U. Lomnitz, I. Montes, T. Treude, V. Liebetrau, J. Gier, C. Hensen, M. Dengler, K. Stolpovsky, L. D. Bryant, and K. Wallmann
Biogeosciences, 12, 1537–1559, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1537-2015, 2015
B. Su, M. Pahlow, H. Wagner, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 12, 1113–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1113-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1113-2015, 2015
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A box model of the eastern tropical South Pacific oxygen minimum zone suggests that anaerobic water-column remineralization rates have to be slower than aerobic remineralization in order to explain the relatively high values of observed nitrate concentrations. Lateral oxygen supply sufficient to oxidize about one-fifth of the export production is required to prevent an anoxic deep ocean. Under these circumstances, the region can be a net source of fixed nitrogen to the surrounding ocean.
W. Koeve, O. Duteil, A. Oschlies, P. Kähler, and J. Segschneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2393–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2393-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2393-2014, 2014
A. E. F. Prowe, M. Pahlow, S. Dutkiewicz, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 11, 3397–3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3397-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3397-2014, 2014
J. Friedrich, F. Janssen, D. Aleynik, H. W. Bange, N. Boltacheva, M. N. Çagatay, A. W. Dale, G. Etiope, Z. Erdem, M. Geraga, A. Gilli, M. T. Gomoiu, P. O. J. Hall, D. Hansson, Y. He, M. Holtappels, M. K. Kirf, M. Kononets, S. Konovalov, A. Lichtschlag, D. M. Livingstone, G. Marinaro, S. Mazlumyan, S. Naeher, R. P. North, G. Papatheodorou, O. Pfannkuche, R. Prien, G. Rehder, C. J. Schubert, T. Soltwedel, S. Sommer, H. Stahl, E. V. Stanev, A. Teaca, A. Tengberg, C. Waldmann, B. Wehrli, and F. Wenzhöfer
Biogeosciences, 11, 1215–1259, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1215-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1215-2014, 2014
S. Krause, P. Steeb, C. Hensen, V. Liebetrau, A. W. Dale, M. Nuzzo, and T. Treude
Biogeosciences, 11, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-507-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-507-2014, 2014
I. Kriest and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 10, 8401–8422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8401-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8401-2013, 2013
O. Duteil, W. Koeve, A. Oschlies, D. Bianchi, E. Galbraith, I. Kriest, and R. Matear
Biogeosciences, 10, 7723–7738, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7723-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7723-2013, 2013
C. J. Somes, A. Oschlies, and A. Schmittner
Biogeosciences, 10, 5889–5910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5889-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5889-2013, 2013
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
V. J. Bertics, C. R. Löscher, I. Salonen, A. W. Dale, J. Gier, R. A. Schmitz, and T. Treude
Biogeosciences, 10, 1243–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1243-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1243-2013, 2013
A. Landolfi, H. Dietze, W. Koeve, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 10, 1351–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1351-2013, 2013
M. El Jarbi, J. Rückelt, T. Slawig, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 10, 1169–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1169-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1169-2013, 2013
A. W. Dale, V. J. Bertics, T. Treude, S. Sommer, and K. Wallmann
Biogeosciences, 10, 629–651, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-629-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-629-2013, 2013
L. M. Zamora, A. Oschlies, H. W. Bange, K. B. Huebert, J. D. Craig, A. Kock, and C. R. Löscher
Biogeosciences, 9, 5007–5022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5007-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5007-2012, 2012
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Sarah Berthet, Julien Jouanno, Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, and William Llovel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 399–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023, 2023
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Phytoplankton absorbs the solar radiation entering the ocean surface and contributes to keeping the associated energy in surface waters. This natural effect is either not represented in the ocean component of climate models or its representation is simplified. An incomplete representation of this biophysical interaction affects the way climate models simulate ocean warming, which leads to uncertainties in projections of oceanic emissions of an important greenhouse gas (nitrous oxide).
Parsa Gooya, Neil C. Swart, and Roberta C. Hamme
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 383–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-383-2023, 2023
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We report on the ocean carbon sink and sources of uptake uncertainty from the latest version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We diagnose the highly active regions for the sink and show how knowledge about historical regions of uptake will provide information about future regions of uptake change and uncertainty. We evaluate the dependence of uncertainty on the location and integration scale. Our results help make useful suggestions for both modeling and observational communities.
Na Li, Sebastian Sippel, Alexander J. Winkler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Markus Reichstein, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1505–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022, 2022
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Quantifying the imprint of large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics and associated carbon cycle responses is key to improving our understanding of carbon cycle dynamics. Using a statistical model that relies on spatiotemporal sea level pressure as a proxy for large-scale atmospheric circulation, we quantify the fraction of interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and the land CO2 sink that are driven by atmospheric circulation variability.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Ruqi Yang, Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Stephen Sitch, Wenhan Tang, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Qixiang Cai, Di Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Hanqin Tian, Atul K. Jain, and Pengfei Han
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 833–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, 2022
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We comprehensively investigate historical GPP trends based on five kinds of GPP datasets and analyze the causes for any discrepancies among them. Results show contrasting behaviors between modeled and satellite-based GPP trends, and their inconsistencies are likely caused by the contrasting performance between satellite-derived and modeled leaf area index (LAI). Thus, the uncertainty in satellite-based GPP induced by LAI undermines its role in assessing the performance of DGVM simulations.
Dmitry V. Sein, Anton Y. Dvornikov, Stanislav D. Martyanov, William Cabos, Vladimir A. Ryabchenko, Matthias Gröger, Daniela Jacob, Alok Kumar Mishra, and Pankaj Kumar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 809–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-809-2022, 2022
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The effect of the marine biogeochemical variability upon the South Asian regional climate has been investigated. In the experiment where its full impact is activated, the average sea surface temperature is lower over most of the ocean. When the biogeochemical coupling is included, the main impacts include the enhanced phytoplankton primary production, a shallower thermocline, decreased SST and water temperature in subsurface layers.
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
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The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modeling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies.
Karol Kuliński, Gregor Rehder, Eero Asmala, Alena Bartosova, Jacob Carstensen, Bo Gustafsson, Per O. J. Hall, Christoph Humborg, Tom Jilbert, Klaus Jürgens, H. E. Markus Meier, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Michael Naumann, Jørgen E. Olesen, Oleg Savchuk, Andreas Schramm, Caroline P. Slomp, Mikhail Sofiev, Anna Sobek, Beata Szymczycha, and Emma Undeman
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 633–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-633-2022, 2022
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The paper covers the aspects related to changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, N, P) external loads; their transformations in the coastal zone; changes in organic matter production (eutrophication) and remineralization (oxygen availability); and the role of sediments in burial and turnover of C, N, and P. Furthermore, this paper also focuses on changes in the marine CO2 system, the structure of the microbial community, and the role of contaminants for biogeochemical processes.
István Dunkl, Aaron Spring, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, 2021
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The variability in atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by terrestrial carbon fluxes. These land–atmosphere fluxes are predictable for around 2 years, but the mechanisms providing the predictability are not well understood. By decomposing the predictability of carbon fluxes into individual contributors we were able to explain the spatial and seasonal patterns and the interannual variability of CO2 flux predictability.
Thomas Luke Smallman, David Thomas Milodowski, Eráclito Sousa Neto, Gerbrand Koren, Jean Ometto, and Mathew Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1191–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1191-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1191-2021, 2021
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Our study provides a novel assessment of model parameter, structure and climate change scenario uncertainty contribution to future predictions of the Brazilian terrestrial carbon stocks to 2100. We calibrated (2001–2017) five models of the terrestrial C cycle of varied structure. The calibrated models were then projected to 2100 under multiple climate change scenarios. Parameter uncertainty dominates overall uncertainty, being ~ 40 times that of either model structure or climate change scenario.
David I. Armstrong McKay, Sarah E. Cornell, Katherine Richardson, and Johan Rockström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 797–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-797-2021, 2021
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We use an Earth system model with two new ocean ecosystem features (plankton size traits and temperature-sensitive nutrient recycling) to revaluate the effect of climate change on sinking organic carbon (the
biological pump) and the ocean carbon sink. These features lead to contrary pump responses to warming, with a combined effect of a smaller sink despite a more resilient pump. These results show the importance of including ecological dynamics in models for understanding climate feedbacks.
Akihiko Ito
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 685–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-685-2019, 2019
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Various minor carbon flows such as trace gas emissions, disturbance-induced emissions, and subsurface exports can affect the carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems in complicated ways. This study assessed how much these minor flows influence the carbon budget using a process-based model. It was found that the minor flows, though small in magnitude, could significantly affect net carbon budget at as much strengths as major flows, implying their long-term importance in Earth's climate system.
Efrén López-Blanco, Jean-François Exbrayat, Magnus Lund, Torben R. Christensen, Mikkel P. Tamstorf, Darren Slevin, Gustaf Hugelius, Anthony A. Bloom, and Mathew Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 233–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-233-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-233-2019, 2019
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The terrestrial CO2 exchange in Arctic ecosystems plays an important role in the global carbon cycle and is particularly sensitive to the ongoing warming experienced in recent years. To improve our understanding of the atmosphere–biosphere interplay, we evaluated the state of the terrestrial pan-Arctic carbon cycling using a promising data assimilation system in the first 15 years of the 21st century. This is crucial when it comes to making predictions about the future state of the carbon cycle.
Gianna Battaglia and Fortunat Joos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 797–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-797-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-797-2018, 2018
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Human-caused, climate change hazards in the ocean continue to aggravate over a very long time. For business as usual, we project the ocean oxygen content to decrease by 40 % over the next thousand years. This would likely have severe consequences for marine life. Global warming and oxygen loss are linked, and meeting the warming target of the Paris Climate Agreement effectively limits related marine hazards. Developments over many thousands of years should be considered to assess marine risks.
Sandy P. Harrison, Patrick J. Bartlein, Victor Brovkin, Sander Houweling, Silvia Kloster, and I. Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 663–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, 2018
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Temperature affects fire occurrence and severity. Warming will increase fire-related carbon emissions and thus atmospheric CO2. The size of this feedback is not known. We use charcoal records to estimate pre-industrial fire emissions and a simple land–biosphere model to quantify the feedback. We infer a feedback strength of 5.6 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of warming and a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05 for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K. Thus, fire feedback is a large part of the climate–carbon-cycle feedback.
Markus Adloff, Christian H. Reick, and Martin Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 413–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-413-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-413-2018, 2018
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Computer simulations show that during an ice age a strong atmospheric CO2 increase would have resulted in stronger carbon uptake of the continents than today. Causes are the larger potential of glacial vegetation to increase its photosynthetic efficiency under increasing CO2 and the smaller amount of carbon in extratropical soils during an ice age that can be released under greenhouse warming. Hence, for different climates the Earth system is differently sensitive to carbon cycle perturbations.
Jean-François Exbrayat, A. Anthony Bloom, Pete Falloon, Akihiko Ito, T. Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 153–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018, 2018
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We use global observations of current terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to constrain the uncertainty in large ensemble 21st century projections of NPP under a "business as usual" scenario using a skill-based multi-model averaging technique. Our results show that this procedure helps greatly reduce the uncertainty in global projections of NPP. We also identify regions where uncertainties in models and observations remain too large to confidently conclude a sign of the change of NPP.
Maarten C. Braakhekke, Karin T. Rebel, Stefan C. Dekker, Benjamin Smith, Arthur H. W. Beusen, and Martin J. Wassen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1121–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, 2017
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Nitrogen input in natural ecosystems usually has a positive effect on plant growth. However, too much N causes N leaching, which contributes to water pollution. Using a global model we estimated that N leaching from natural lands has increased by 73 % during the 20th century, mainly due to rising N deposition from the atmosphere caused by emissions from fossil fuels and agriculture. Climate change and increasing CO2 concentration had positive and negative effects (respectively) on N leaching.
Karol Kuliński, Bernd Schneider, Beata Szymczycha, and Marcin Stokowski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1107–1120, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1107-2017, 2017
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This review describes the general knowledge of the marine acid–base system as well as the peculiarities identified and reported for the Baltic Sea specifically. We discuss issues such as dissociation constants in the brackish water, the structure of the total alkalinity in the Baltic Sea, long-term changes in total alkalinity, and the acid–base effects of biomass production and mineralization. We identify research gaps and specify bottlenecks concerning the Baltic Sea acid–base system.
Gaëlle Parard, Anna Rutgersson, Sindu Raj Parampil, and Anastase Alexandre Charantonis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1093–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1093-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1093-2017, 2017
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Coastal environments and shelf sea represent 7.6 % of the total oceanic surface area. They are, however, biogeochemically more dynamic and probably more vulnerable to climate change than the open ocean. Whatever the responses of the open ocean to climate change, they will propagate to the coastal ocean. We used the self-organizing multiple linear output (SOMLO) method to estimate the ocean surface pCO2 in the Baltic Sea from remotely sensed measurements and we estimated the air–sea CO2 flux.
Jukka-Pekka Myllykangas, Tom Jilbert, Gunnar Jakobs, Gregor Rehder, Jan Werner, and Susanna Hietanen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 817–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-817-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-817-2017, 2017
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The deep waters of the Baltic Sea host an expanding
dead zone, where low-oxygen conditions favour the natural production of two strong greenhouse gases, methane and nitrous oxide. Oxygen is introduced into the deeps only during rare
salt pulses. We studied the effects of a recent salt pulse on Baltic greenhouse gas production. We found that where oxygen was introduced, methane was largely removed, while nitrous oxide production increased, indicating strong effects on greenhouse gas dynamics.
Eduardo Eiji Maeda, Xuanlong Ma, Fabien Hubert Wagner, Hyungjun Kim, Taikan Oki, Derek Eamus, and Alfredo Huete
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 439–454, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-439-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-439-2017, 2017
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The Amazon River basin continuously transfers massive volumes of water from the land surface to the atmosphere, thereby having massive influence on global climate patterns. Nonetheless, the characteristics of ET across the Amazon basin, as well as the relative contribution of the multiple drivers to this process, are still uncertain. This study carries out a water balance approach to analyse seasonal patterns in ET and their relationships with water and energy drivers across the Amazon Basin.
Yujin Zeng, Zhenghui Xie, and Shuang Liu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 113–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-113-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-113-2017, 2017
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Irrigation constitutes 70 % of human water consumption. In this study, using the improved CLM4.5 with an active crop model, two 1 km simulations investigating the effects of irrigation on latent heat, sensible heat, and carbon fluxes in the Heihe River basin in northwestern China were conducted using a high-quality irrigation dataset compiled from 1981 to 2013. The results revealed the key role of irrigation in the control of land–atmosphere water, energy, and carbon fluxes in semiarid basin.
Rashid Rafique, Jianyang Xia, Oleksandra Hararuk, Ghassem R. Asrar, Guoyong Leng, Yingping Wang, and Yiqi Luo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 649–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-649-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-649-2016, 2016
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Traceability analysis was used to diagnose the causes of differences in simulating ecosystem carbon storage capacity between two land models: CLMA-CASA and CABLE. Results showed that the simulated ecosystem carbon storage capacity is largely influenced by the photosynthesis parameterization, residence time and organic matter decomposition.
Roman Sitko, Jaroslav Vido, Jaroslav Škvarenina, Viliam Pichler, Ĺubomír Scheer, Jana Škvareninová, and Paulína Nalevanková
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 385–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-385-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-385-2016, 2016
A. Kessler and J. Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-295-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-295-2016, 2016
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The uncertainty of ocean carbon uptake in ESMs is projected to grow 2-fold by the end of the 21st century. We found that models that take up anomalously low (high) CO2 in the Southern Ocean (SO) today project low (high) cumulative CO2 uptake in the 21st century; thus the SO can be used to constrain future global uptake uncertainty. Inter-model spread in the SO carbon sink arises from variations in the pCO2 seasonality, specifically bias in the simulated timing and amplitude of NPP and SST.
R. W. Scholz and F.-W. Wellmer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 103–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-103-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-103-2016, 2016
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The 2014 USGS data could decrease from 67 Gt phosphate rock (PR) reserves to 58.5 Gt marketable PR (PR-M) if data on PR-ore are transferred to PR-M. The 50 Gt PR-M estimate for Moroccan reserves is reasonable. Geoeconomics suggests that large parts of resources and geopotential become future reserves. As phosphate is essential for food production and reserve data alone are unsufficient for assessing long-run supply security, an international standing committee may assess future PR accessibility.
F. Lehner, F. Joos, C. C. Raible, J. Mignot, A. Born, K. M. Keller, and T. F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015
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We present the first last-millennium simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) including an interactive carbon cycle in both ocean and land component. Volcanic eruptions emerge as the strongest forcing factor for the preindustrial climate and carbon cycle. We estimate the climate-carbon-cycle feedback in CESM to be at the lower bounds of empirical estimates (1.3ppm/°C). The time of emergence for interannual global land and ocean carbon uptake rates are 1947 and 1877, respectively.
C. Heinze, S. Meyer, N. Goris, L. Anderson, R. Steinfeldt, N. Chang, C. Le Quéré, and D. C. E. Bakker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 327–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-327-2015, 2015
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Rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations caused by human actions over the past 250 years have raised cause for concern that changes in Earth’s climate system may progress at a much faster pace and larger extent than during the past 20,000 years. Questions that yet need to be answered are what the carbon uptake kinetics of the oceans will be in the future and how the increase in oceanic carbon inventory will affect its ecosystems. Major future ocean carbon research challenges are discussed.
J. D. Edixhoven, J. Gupta, and H. H. G. Savenije
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 491–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-491-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-491-2014, 2014
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Phosphate rock is a finite resource required for fertilizer production. Following a debate over the PR depletion timeline, global PR reserves were recently increased 4-fold based mainly on a restatement of Moroccan reserves. We review whether this restatement is methodologically compatible with resource terminology used in major resource classifications, whether resource classification nomenclature is sufficiently understood in the literature, and whether the recent restatements are reliable.
B. Foereid, D. S. Ward, N. Mahowald, E. Paterson, and J. Lehmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 211–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-211-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-211-2014, 2014
M. Heimann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 41–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-41-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-41-2014, 2014
R. Séférian, L. Bopp, D. Swingedouw, and J. Servonnat
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 109–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-109-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-109-2013, 2013
D. Wisser, S. Marchenko, J. Talbot, C. Treat, and S. Frolking
Earth Syst. Dynam., 2, 121–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-121-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-121-2011, 2011
K. Michaelian
Earth Syst. Dynam., 2, 37–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-37-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-37-2011, 2011
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Short summary
Oceanic deoxygenation is driven by climate change in several areas of the global ocean. Measurements indicate that ocean volumes with very low oxygen levels expand, with consequences for marine organisms and fishery. We found climate-change-driven phosphorus (P) input in the ocean is hereby an important driver for deoxygenation on longer timescales with effects in the next millennia.
Oceanic deoxygenation is driven by climate change in several areas of the global ocean....
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