Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-473-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-473-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Jul 2019
Research article |
| 19 Jul 2019
| 19 Jul 2019
Different response of surface temperature and air temperature to deforestation in climate models
Johannes Winckler
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling, Hamburg, Germany
Christian H. Reick
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Alessandro Cescatti
Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy
Paul C. Stoy
Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
Quentin Lejeune
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH-Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
currently at: Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
Thomas Raddatz
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Andreas Chlond
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Marvin Heidkamp
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling, Hamburg, Germany
Julia Pongratz
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4899, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Moisture recycling in the Amazon provides water essential for forest survival, but external pressures threaten this self-sustaining system. Using Earth System Model simulations, we analyzed hydroclimatic stress from deforestation and global warming. We found that 25 % deforestation can significantly stress over 70 % of the forest, increasing to 89 % when combined with 2 °C warming. Our findings show that forest loss and climate change can reinforce each other, raising the risk of forest dieback.
Sadegh Ranjbar, Danielle Losos, Sophie Hoffman, Yafang Zhong, Jason A. Otkin, Ankur R. Desai, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher R. Hain, and Paul C. Stoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 4927–4955, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4927-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4927-2026, 2026
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Water moves from land to air in a process called evapotranspiration, which affects weather, crops, and water supply. Using satellites and AI, we created a system that tracks this water movement every five minutes, day and night, even through clouds. This provides continuous insights that can help manage water, predict weather, and better understand the water cycle.
Niklas Schwind, Mahé Perrette, Edward Byers, Annika Högner, Quentin Lejeune, Tessa Möller, Zebedee Nicholls, Peter Pfleiderer, Sarah Schöngart, Michaela Werning, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 6797–6828, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6797-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6797-2026, 2026
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We study how regional climate and climate impact indicators may respond to different emissions scenarios. Their possible outcomes are shaped by uncertainties in future emissions, global warming, regional effects of global warming, and the chaotic climate system. We introduce RIME-X (Rapid Impact Model Emulator Extended), an emulator that combines multiple tools and datasets to estimate probabilistically how any emissions path may influence regional outcomes.
Pin-Hsin Hu, Christian H. Reick, Reiner Schnur, Axel Kleidon, and Martin Claussen
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 6357–6402, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6357-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6357-2026, 2026
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We introduce the new plant functional diversity model JeDi-BACH, a novel tool that integrates the Jena Diversity Model (JeDi) within the land component of the ICON Earth System Model. JeDi-BACH captures a richer set of plant trait variations based on environmental filtering and functional tradeoffs without a priori knowledge of the vegetation types. JeDi-BACH represents a significant advancement in modeling the complex interactions between plant functional diversity and climate.
Matteo Zampieri, Marco Girardello, Saquib Md Saharwardi, Guido Ceccherini, Emanuele Massaro, Mirco Migliavacca, Ibrahim Hoteit, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-296, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2026-296, 2026
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The Cooling Efficiency Factor Index (CEFI) is a new satellite-based dataset that shows how effectively the land surface cools itself by releasing heat to the air. It is updated in near real time from 2005 onward across Europe, Africa, and nearby regions. The dataset reveals drought stress in vegetation, wind-driven dust in deserts, fire risk, crop losses, and urban heat susceptibility. It offers a practical tool for research and early warning systems.
Piers M. Forster, Tristram Walsh, Chris Smith, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie M. Andrew, Chris Atkinson, Richard A. Betts, Antonio Bombelli, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Helen E. Claxton, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas L. Frölicher, Catia M. Domingues, Thomas Gasser, Catherine H. Gregory, Rachel M. Hoesly, Daniel Huppmann, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, Alexia Karwat, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Paul B. Krummel, Xin Lan, Jean-François Lamarque, Aurélien Liné, Belén Martín-Míguez, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Pino Mussak, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Steven J. Smith, Ghassan Taha, Caterina Tassone, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Marco Zecchetto, Junting Zhong, Xiao-Ye Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026
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We give our annual update of key climate indicators. Our work quantifies the human contribution to global warming and the pace of climate change. This represents a large effort by the international community akin to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
Adrian I. R. Jäschke, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Clemens Schwingshackl, Amali A. Amali, Julia Pongratz, and Raphael Ganzenmüller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2682, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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We provide the first assessment of how potential natural vegetation (PNV) assumptions affect CO2 fluxes from land-use change (FLUC) by combining pollen records and environmental data with machine learning to produce global PNV maps. Using the bookkeeping model BLUE, we find that global cumulative FLUC emissions are 16 % higher than previous estimates, with large regional differences. Our results highlight that PNV is a previously overlooked but substantial uncertainty source in FLUC estimates.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Kjetil Aas, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Nicolas Bellouin, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Carla F. Berghoff, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Nathan O. Collier, Thomas H. Colligan, Margot Cronin, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Matt P. Enright, Kazutaka Enyo, Michael Erb, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Filippa Fransner, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Jefferson Goncalves De Souza, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Bertrand Guenet, Özgür Gürses, Kirsty Harrington, Ian Harris, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Akihiko Ito, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Yawen Kong, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Charles Koven, Taro Kunimitsu, Xin Lan, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Zhu Liu, Claire Lo Monaco, Lei Ma, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Joe R. Melton, Natalie Monacci, Erwan Monier, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Jens D. Müller, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Lorna R. Nayagam, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nutzel, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Naiqing Pan, Sudhanshu Pandey, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Pierre Regnier, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Ingunn Skjelvan, T. Luke Smallman, Victoria Spada, Mohanan G. Sreeush, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Didier Swingedouw, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Xiangjun Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Erik van Ooijen, Guido R. van der Werf, Sebastiaan J. van de Velde, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3211–3288, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026, 2026
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Marco Girardello, Gonzalo Oton, Matteo Piccardo, Mark Pickering, Agata Elia, Guido Ceccherini, Mariano Garcia, Mirco Migliavacca, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 2667–2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2667-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2667-2026, 2026
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Our research addresses the challenge of assessing forest structural diversity over large spatial scales, which is essential for understanding links between canopy structure, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning. The advent of spaceborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) sensors such as the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) has revolutionised the ability to measure forest structure. We provide a spatially explicit dataset of eight forest structural diversity metrics.
William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Matthew Jones, Zebedee Nicholls, Glen P. Peters, Chris Smith, Marielle Saunois, Giacomo Grassi, Julia Pongratz, Steven J. Smith, Francesco N. Tubiello, Monica Crippa, Matthew Gidden, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jan Minx, and Piers M. Forster
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 2549–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2549-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-2549-2026, 2026
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This study explores why global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates vary. Key reasons include different coverage of gases and sectors, varying definitions of anthropogenic land use change emissions, and the Paris Agreement not covering all emission sources. The study highlights three main ways emissions data is reported, each with different objectives and resulting in varying global emission totals. It emphasizes the need for transparency in choosing datasets and setting assessment scopes.
Anna Kirchner, Efrén López-Blanco, Vladislav Bastrikov, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Philippe Peylin, and Anne Sofie Lansø
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1071, 2026
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Shrubs need to be represented in climate models, because they shape the response of high-latitude regions to climate change. We added three shrub types to the ORCHIDEE land surface model using Arctic observations. Including shrubs reduces simulated biomass and carbon uptake, improving model agreement with measurements. This is a simple, observation-based approach and an important step towards better representations of shrubs and their climate change response in models.
Jörg Schwinger, Leon Merfort, Nico Bauer, Raffaele Bernadello, Momme Butenschön, Timothée Bourgeois, Matthew J. Gidden, Shraddha Gupta, Hanna Lee, Nadine Mengis, Yiannis Moustakis, Helene Muri, Lars Nieradzik, Daniele Peano, Julia Pongratz, Pascal Sauer, Etienne Tourigny, and David Wårlind
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-833, 2026
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Earth system models can simulate CO2 removal by representing the activity that removes CO2 from the atmosphere, e.g. growing bioenergy crops for energy production with CCS or enhancing the surface oceans’ alkalinity. We describe a simulation framework, spanning the modeling chain from integrated assessment to Earth system models, that allows separating the intrinsic efficiency of CDR options from the overall atmospheric CO2 reduction, the latter including the effect of carbon-cycle feedbacks.
Joana Melo, Simone Rossi, Frédéric Achard, Ramdane Alkama, Josep G. Canadell, Sandro Federici, Pierre Friedlingstein, David Gibbs, Nancy Harris, Viola Heinrich, Michael O’Sullivan, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Melissa Rose, Rosa Roman-Cuesta, María J. Sanz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, and Giacomo Grassi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-631, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-631, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
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We created the LULUCF Data Hub to make information on how land use affects carbon dioxide emissions and removals more transparent and comparable among datasets. We show country-level data from national reports and global sources, allowing users to explore differences and similarities in land-based carbon fluxes. It helps identify where data agree, where they differ, and where more research is needed.
Siqing Xu, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Yves Balkanski, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Liang Wan, and Jean Sciare
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1-2026, 2026
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Prescribing a fixed grassland density in the ORCHIDEE model limits its ability to capture grassland dynamics, leading to unrealistic mortality, especially in semi-arid grasslands. We proposed a dynamic density approach where a positive density-precipitation relationship emerges. This method improves spatial pattern, significantly reduces mortality, sustains productivity, and raises the aridity threshold above which frequent mortality events occur in grasslands.
Jean-Francois Lamarque, Pierre Friedlingstein, Brian Osias, Steve Strongin, Venkatramani Balaji, Kevin W. Bowman, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Heidi Cullen, Kenneth J. Davis, Scott C. Doney, Kevin R. Gurney, Alicia R. Karspeck, Charles D. Koven, Galen McKinley, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Britt Stephens, and Colm Sweeney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6457, 2026
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This Perspective highlights requirements to scale the carbon credit market and enable the growth in climate solutions funded through such market. The requirements are on the understanding of the value of the proposed carbon credit projects, and on the availability of a verification system. This verification becomes particularly relevant as the carbon credit market scales to significant impacts on CO2 (or other greenhouse gases), such that attribution to collective actions can be identified.
Espoir Koudjo Gaglo, Emeline Chaste, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Olivier Roupsard, Christophe Jourdan, Sidy Sow, Nadeige Vandewalle, Frédéric C. Do, Daouda Ngom, and Aude Valade
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9541–9563, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9541-2025, 2025
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Agroforestry in the Sahel help store carbon and support food production, but land surface models struggle to capture their dynamics. We adapted the ORCHIDEE model to simulate Faidherbia albida, a tree that taps deep groundwater. This work highlights the need to integrate deep water uptake in land surface models for groundwater-dependent ecosystems, as it could enhance predictions, helping to sustain agroforestry in a changing climate.
Christian H. Reick and Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0011-F3E7-6, https://doi.org/https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0011-F3E7-6, 2025
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To quantify the strengths of feedbacks between climate and carbon cycle, commonly the α-β-γ formalism is applied to data from Earth system simulations, where CO2 rises strongly until year 2100. We show that the formalism cannot be justified by a linear expansion in the rising CO2. This explains why the calculated feedback is not a proper system characteristics, but depends on the scenario. But by a suitable re-interpretation the formalism can be justified without such a linearity assumption.
Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2137–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2137-2025, 2025
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Despite forests being so important for mitigating climate change, there are still uncertainties about how much the changes in forest cover contribute to the cooling/warming of the climate. Climate models and real-world observations often disagree about the magnitude and even the direction of these changes. We constrain climate models scenarios of widespread deforestation with satellite and in-situ data and show that models still have difficulties representing the movement of heat and water.
Olivier Bouriaud, Ernst-Detlef Schulze, Konstantin Gregor, Issam Boukhris, Peter Högberg, Roland Irslinger, Phillip Papastefanou, Julia Pongratz, Anja Rammig, Riccardo Valentini, and Christian Körner
Biogeosciences, 22, 4729–4741, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4729-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-4729-2025, 2025
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The impact of harvesting on forests' carbon sink capacities is debated. One view is that their sink strength is resilient to harvesting, and the other is that it disrupts these capacities. Our work shows that leaf area index (LAI) has been overlooked in this discussion. We found that temperate forests' carbon uptake is largely insensitive to variations in LAI beyond 4.5 m² m-² but that forests operate at higher levels.
Lei Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Yitong Yao, Daniel Goll, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Isabel Martínez Cano, Arthur Fendrich, Laurent Li, Hui Yang, Sassan Saatchi, Ricardo Dalagnol, and Wei Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4915–4933, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4915-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4915-2025, 2025
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This study enhances the accuracy of modeling the carbon dynamics of the Amazon rainforest by optimizing key model parameters based on satellite data. Using spatially varying parameters for tree mortality and photosynthesis, we improved predictions of biomass, productivity, and tree mortality. Our findings highlight the critical role of wood density and water availability in forest processes, offering insights to use in refining global carbon cycle models.
Anam M. Khan, Olivia E. Clifton, Jesse O. Bash, Sam Bland, Nathan Booth, Philip Cheung, Lisa Emberson, Johannes Flemming, Erick Fredj, Stefano Galmarini, Laurens Ganzeveld, Orestis Gazetas, Ignacio Goded, Christian Hogrefe, Christopher D. Holmes, László Horváth, Vincent Huijnen, Qian Li, Paul A. Makar, Ivan Mammarella, Giovanni Manca, J. William Munger, Juan L. Pérez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Limei Ran, Roberto San Jose, Donna Schwede, Sam J. Silva, Ralf Staebler, Shihan Sun, Amos P. K. Tai, Eran Tas, Timo Vesala, Tamás Weidinger, Zhiyong Wu, Leiming Zhang, and Paul C. Stoy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8613–8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8613-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8613-2025, 2025
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Vegetation removes tropospheric ozone through stomatal uptake, and accurately modeling the stomatal uptake of ozone is important for modeling dry deposition and air quality. We evaluated the stomatal component of ozone dry deposition modeled by atmospheric chemistry models at six sites. We find that models and observation-based estimates agree at times during the growing season at all sites, but some models overestimated the stomatal component during the dry summers at a seasonally dry site.
Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Maria Carolina Duran-Rojas, Thais Michele Rosan, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Louise P. Chini, and George C. Hurtt
Biogeosciences, 22, 3547–3561, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3547-2025, 2025
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Indonesia is the world's third-highest carbon emitter from land use change. However, there are uncertainties in the carbon emissions of Indonesia. Our best estimate of carbon emissions from land use change in Indonesia is 0.12 ± 0.02 PgC/yr with a steady trend. Despite many uncertainties created by drivers, models, and products, we also found robust agreements between these models and products. All agree that Indonesian carbon emissions from LULCC (land use and land cover change) have had no decreasing trend for the last 2 decades.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 2641–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-2641-2025, 2025
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In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets to track real-world changes over time. To make our work relevant to policymakers, we follow methods from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the IPCC assessment.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025
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Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.21 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasize the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven J. De Hertog, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Thomas Raddatz, Hongmei Li, Wim Thiery, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, David Wårlind, Lars Nieradzik, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 631–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-631-2025, 2025
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Land cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) can alter climate even in intact areas, causing carbon changes in remote areas. This study is the first to assess these effects, finding they substantially alter global carbon dynamics, changing terrestrial stocks by up to dozens of gigatonnes. These results are vital for scientific and policy assessments, given the expected role of LCLMCs in achieving the Paris Agreement's goal to limit global warming below 1.5 °C.
Mateo Duque-Villegas, Martin Claussen, Thomas Kleinen, Jürgen Bader, and Christian H. Reick
Clim. Past, 21, 773–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-773-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-773-2025, 2025
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We simulate the last glacial cycle with a comprehensive model of the Earth system and investigate vegetation cover change in northern Africa during the last four African Humid Periods (AHPs). We find a common pattern of vegetation change and relate it with climatic factors in order to discuss how vegetation might have evolved during even older AHPs. This scaling relationship we find according to past AHPs fails to account for projected changes in northern Africa under strong greenhouse gas warming.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
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The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8283–8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, 2024
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Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Yet, projecting future precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs. Our modelling framework is particularly useful for all downstream applications of climate model data.
Sabine Egerer, Stefanie Falk, Dorothea Mayer, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 21, 5005–5025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024, 2024
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Using a state-of-the-art land model, we find that bioenergy plants can store carbon more efficiently than forests over long periods in the soil, in geological reservoirs, or by substituting fossil-fuel-based energy. Planting forests is more suitable for reaching climate targets by 2050. The carbon removal potential depends also on local environmental conditions. These considerations have important implications for climate policy, spatial planning, nature conservation, and agriculture.
Guillaume Marie, Jina Jeong, Hervé Jactel, Gunnar Petter, Maxime Cailleret, Matthew J. McGrath, Vladislav Bastrikov, Josefine Ghattas, Bertrand Guenet, Anne Sofie Lansø, Kim Naudts, Aude Valade, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8023–8047, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024, 2024
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This research looks at how climate change influences forests, and particularly how altered wind and insect activities could make forests emit instead of absorb carbon. We have updated a land surface model called ORCHIDEE to better examine the effect of bark beetles on forest health. Our findings suggest that sudden events, such as insect outbreaks, can dramatically affect carbon storage, offering crucial insights into tackling climate change.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
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This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Biogeosciences, 21, 1923–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1923-2024, 2024
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We study the timescale dependence of airborne fraction and underlying feedbacks by a theory of the climate–carbon system. Using simulations we show the predictive power of this theory and find that (1) this fraction generally decreases for increasing timescales and (2) at all timescales the total feedback is negative and the model spread in a single feedback causes the spread in the airborne fraction. Our study indicates that those are properties of the system, independently of the scenario.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 265–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, 2024
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Changes in land use are crucial to achieve lower global warming. However, despite their importance, the effects of these changes on moisture fluxes are poorly understood. We analyse land cover and management scenarios in three climate models involving cropland expansion, afforestation, and irrigation. Results show largely consistent influences on moisture fluxes, with cropland expansion causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation show the opposite.
Wolfgang Alexander Obermeier, Clemens Schwingshackl, Ana Bastos, Giulia Conchedda, Thomas Gasser, Giacomo Grassi, Richard A. Houghton, Francesco Nicola Tubiello, Stephen Sitch, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 605–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, 2024
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We provide and compare country-level estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes from a variety and large number of models, bottom-up estimates, and country reports for the period 1950–2021. Although net fluxes are small in many countries, they are often composed of large compensating emissions and removals. In many countries, the estimates agree well once their individual characteristics are accounted for, but in other countries, including some of the largest emitters, substantial uncertainties exist.
Gregory Duveiller, Mark Pickering, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Luca Caporaso, Souhail Boussetta, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Alessandro Cescatti
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7357–7373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7357-2023, 2023
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Some of our best tools to describe the state of the land system, including the intensity of heat waves, have a problem. The model currently assumes that the number of leaves in ecosystems always follows the same cycle. By using satellite observations of when leaves are present, we show that capturing the yearly changes in this cycle is important to avoid errors in estimating surface temperature. We show that this has strong implications for our capacity to describe heat waves across Europe.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
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The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
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Accurate estimation of fluxes of carbon dioxide from the land surface is essential for understanding future impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system. A wide variety of methods currently exist to estimate these sources and sinks. We are continuing work to develop annual comparisons of these diverse methods in order to clarify what they all actually calculate and to resolve apparent disagreement, in addition to highlighting opportunities for increased understanding.
Peter Hoffmann, Vanessa Reinhart, Diana Rechid, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Edouard L. Davin, Christina Asmus, Benjamin Bechtel, Jürgen Böhner, Eleni Katragkou, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3819–3852, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3819-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3819-2023, 2023
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This paper introduces the new high-resolution land use and land cover change dataset LUCAS LUC for Europe (version 1.1), tailored for use in regional climate models. Historical and projected future land use change information from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset is translated into annual plant functional type changes from 1950 to 2015 and 2016 to 2100, respectively, by employing a newly developed land use translator.
Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab, Gregory Duveiller, Steven J. De Hertog, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Carl F. Schleussner, Wim Thiery, and Quentin Lejeune
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4283–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, 2023
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Tree cover changes play a significant role in climate mitigation and adaptation. Their regional impacts are key in informing national-level decisions and prioritising areas for conservation efforts. We present a first step towards exploring these regional impacts using a simple statistical device, i.e. emulator. The emulator only needs to train on climate model outputs representing the maximal impacts of aff-, re-, and deforestation, from which it explores plausible in-between outcomes itself.
A. Elia, M. Pickering, M. Girardello, G. Oton, G. Ceccherini, S. Capobianco, M. Piccardo, G. Forzieri, M. Migliavacca, and A. Cescatti
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-4-W7-2023, 41–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W7-2023-41-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W7-2023-41-2023, 2023
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
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This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occur and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, 2023
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Land cover and management changes can affect the climate and water availability. In this study we use climate model simulations of extreme global land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation) and land management changes (irrigation) to understand the effects on the global water cycle and local to continental water availability. We show that cropland expansion generally leads to higher evaporation and lower amounts of precipitation and afforestation and irrigation expansion to the opposite.
Giacomo Grassi, Clemens Schwingshackl, Thomas Gasser, Richard A. Houghton, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Alessandro Cescatti, Philippe Ciais, Sandro Federici, Pierre Friedlingstein, Werner A. Kurz, Maria J. Sanz Sanchez, Raúl Abad Viñas, Ramdane Alkama, Selma Bultan, Guido Ceccherini, Stefanie Falk, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Anu Korosuo, Joana Melo, Matthew J. McGrath, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Benjamin Poulter, Anna A. Romanovskaya, Simone Rossi, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1093–1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, 2023
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Striking differences exist in estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes between the national greenhouse gas inventories and the IPCC assessment reports. These differences hamper an accurate assessment of the collective progress under the Paris Agreement. By implementing an approach that conceptually reconciles land-use CO2 flux from national inventories and the global models used by the IPCC, our study is an important step forward for increasing confidence in land-use CO2 flux estimates.
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, 2023
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For the first time, our decadal prediction system based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model enables prognostic atmospheric CO2 with an interactive carbon cycle. The evolution of CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth is reconstructed well by assimilating data products; retrospective predictions show high confidence in predicting changes in the next year. The Earth system predictions provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.
Yi-Ying Chen and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 349–363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-349-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-349-2023, 2023
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Tropical cyclones are typically assumed to be associated with ecosystem damage. This study challenges this assumption and suggests that instead of reducing leaf area, cyclones in East Asia may increase leaf area by alleviating water stress.
Huanhuan Wang, Chao Yue, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Biogeosciences, 20, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-75-2023, 2023
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This study provided a synthesis of three influential methods to quantify afforestation impact on surface temperature. Results showed that actual effect following afforestation was highly dependent on afforestation fraction. When full afforestation is assumed, the actual effect approaches the potential effect. We provided evidence the afforestation faction is a key factor in reconciling different methods and emphasized that it should be considered for surface cooling impacts in policy evaluation.
Rainer Schneck, Veronika Gayler, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Thomas Raddatz, Christian H. Reick, and Reiner Schnur
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8581–8611, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8581-2022, 2022
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The versions of ICON-A and ICON-Land/JSBACHv4 used for this study constitute the first milestone in the development of the new ICON Earth System Model ICON-ESM. JSBACHv4 is the successor of JSBACHv3, and most of the parameterizations of JSBACHv4 are re-implementations from JSBACHv3. We assess and compare the performance of JSBACHv4 and JSBACHv3. Overall, the JSBACHv4 results are as good as JSBACHv3, but both models reveal the same main shortcomings, e.g. the depiction of the leaf area index.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Yitong Yao, Emilie Joetzjer, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Fabio Cresto Aleina, Jerome Chave, Lawren Sack, Megan Bartlett, Patrick Meir, Rosie Fisher, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7809–7833, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7809-2022, 2022
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To facilitate more mechanistic modeling of drought effects on forest dynamics, our study implements a hydraulic module to simulate the vertical water flow, change in water storage and percentage loss of stem conductance (PLC). With the relationship between PLC and tree mortality, our model can successfully reproduce the large biomass drop observed under throughfall exclusion. Our hydraulic module provides promising avenues benefiting the prediction for mortality under future drought events.
Mark Pickering, Alessandro Cescatti, and Gregory Duveiller
Biogeosciences, 19, 4833–4864, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4833-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4833-2022, 2022
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This study explores two of the most recent products in carbon productivity estimation, FLUXCOM gross primary productivity (GPP), calculated by upscaling local measurements of CO2 exchange, and remotely sensed sun-induced chlorophyll a fluorescence (SIF). High-resolution SIF data are valuable in demonstrating similarity in the SIF–GPP relationship between vegetation covers, provide an independent probe of the FLUXCOM GPP model and demonstrate the response of SIF to meteorological fluctuations.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Roberto Pilli, Ramdane Alkama, Alessandro Cescatti, Werner A. Kurz, and Giacomo Grassi
Biogeosciences, 19, 3263–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3263-2022, 2022
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To become carbon neutral by 2050, the European Union (EU27) forest C sink should increase to −450 Mt CO2 yr-1. Our study highlights that under current management practices (i.e. excluding any policy scenario) the forest C sink of the EU27 member states and the UK may decrease to about −250 Mt CO2eq yr-1 in 2050. The expected impacts of future climate change, however, add a considerable uncertainty, potentially nearly doubling or halving the sink associated with forest management.
Shruti Nath, Quentin Lejeune, Lea Beusch, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 851–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022, 2022
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Uncertainty within climate model projections on inter-annual timescales is largely affected by natural climate variability. Emulators are valuable tools for approximating climate model runs, allowing for easy exploration of such uncertainty spaces. This study takes a first step at building a spatially resolved, monthly temperature emulator that takes local yearly temperatures as the sole input, thus providing monthly temperature distributions which are of critical value to impact assessments.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
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The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Guillaume Marie, B. Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Cecile Dardel, Thuy Le Toan, Alexandre Bouvet, Stéphane Mermoz, Ludovic Villard, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2599–2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2599-2022, 2022
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Most Earth system models make use of vegetation maps to initialize a simulation at global scale. Satellite-based biomass map estimates for Africa were used to estimate cover fractions for the 15 land cover classes. This study successfully demonstrates that satellite-based biomass maps can be used to better constrain vegetation maps. Applying this approach at the global scale would increase confidence in assessments of present-day biomass stocks.
Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Ronny Lauerwald, Ben Poulter, Josep G. Canadell, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Atul Jain, Matthew Jones, Masayuki Kondo, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Prabir K. Patra, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Shilong Piao, Chunjing Qiu, Celso Von Randow, Pierre Regnier, Marielle Saunois, Robert Scholes, Anatoly Shvidenko, Hanqin Tian, Hui Yang, Xuhui Wang, and Bo Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1289–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, 2022
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The second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) will provide updated quantification and process understanding of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions and sinks for ten regions of the globe. In this paper, we give definitions, review different methods, and make recommendations for estimating different components of the total land–atmosphere carbon exchange for each region in a consistent and complete approach.
Jan C. Minx, William F. Lamb, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Monica Crippa, Niklas Döbbeling, Piers M. Forster, Diego Guizzardi, Jos Olivier, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Rigby, Marielle Saunois, Steven J. Smith, Efisio Solazzo, and Hanqin Tian
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 5213–5252, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021, 2021
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We provide a synthetic dataset on anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. We show that GHG emissions continued to rise across all gases and sectors. Annual average GHG emissions growth slowed, but absolute decadal increases have never been higher in human history. We identify a number of data gaps and data quality issues in global inventories and highlight their importance for monitoring progress towards international climate goals.
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Andrew J. Pitman, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Etsushi Kato, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Anthony P. Walker, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 18, 5639–5668, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021, 2021
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The Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, yet the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations by an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models over Australia and highlighted a number of key areas that lead to model divergence on both short (inter-annual) and long (decadal) timescales.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
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Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 533–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-533-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-533-2021, 2021
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We apply a new identification method to derive the response functions that characterize the sensitivity of the land carbon cycle to CO2 perturbations in an Earth system model. By means of these response functions, which generalize the usually employed single-valued sensitivities, we can reliably predict the response of the land carbon to weak perturbations. Further, we demonstrate how by this new method one can robustly derive and interpret internal spectra of timescales of the system.
Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça, Julia Pongratz, and Christian H. Reick
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 501–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-501-2021, 2021
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Linear response functions are a powerful tool to both predict and investigate the dynamics of a system when subjected to small perturbations. In practice, these functions must often be derived from perturbation experiment data. Nevertheless, current methods for this identification require a tailored perturbation experiment, often with many realizations. We present a method that instead derives these functions from a single realization of an experiment driven by any type of perturbation.
Jina Jeong, Jonathan Barichivich, Philippe Peylin, Vanessa Haverd, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Nicolas Vuichard, Michael Neil Evans, Flurin Babst, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5891–5913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5891-2021, 2021
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We have proposed and evaluated the use of four benchmarks that leverage tree-ring width observations to provide more nuanced verification targets for land-surface models (LSMs), which currently lack a long-term benchmark for forest ecosystem functioning. Using relatively unbiased European biomass network datasets, we identify the extent to which presumed biases in the much larger International Tree-Ring Data Bank might degrade the validation of LSMs.
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Short summary
For local living conditions, it matters whether deforestation influences the surface temperature, temperature at 2 m, or the temperature higher up in the atmosphere. Here, simulations with a climate model show that at a location of deforestation, surface temperature generally changes more strongly than atmospheric temperature. Comparison across climate models shows that both for summer and winter the surface temperature response exceeds the air temperature response locally by a factor of 2.
For local living conditions, it matters whether deforestation influences the surface...
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