The following lists the recent preprints posted on EGUsphere with ESD-related topics, the recent preprints posted in ESD’s discussion forum, as well as final revised papers published recently in ESD.
07 Jan 2026
Seamless climate information from months to multiple years: constraining decadal predictions with seasonal predictions and past observations, and their comparison to multi-annual predictions
Carlos Delgado-Torres, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Verónica Torralba, Roberto Bilbao, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó-Cabré, Albert Soret, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-41-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-41-2026, 2026
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07 Jan 2026
Northern high latitudes could become a net carbon source below 2 °C global warming
Rebecca M. Varney, Daniel Hooke, Norman J. Steinert, T. Luke Smallman, Camilla Mathison, and Eleanor J. Burke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6075,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6075, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Jan 2026
Enhanced climate reproducibility testing with false discovery rate correction
Michael E. Kelleher and Salil Mahajan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 23–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-23-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-23-2026, 2026
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05 Jan 2026
CMIP6 multi-model assessment of Northeast Atlantic and German Bight storm activity
Daniel Krieger and Ralf Weisse
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1-2026, 2026
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04 Jan 2026
Improved Comparability and System-Wide Verification to Support a Scalable Carbon Credit Market
Jean-Francois Lamarque, Pierre Friedlingstein, Brian Osias, Steve Strongin, Venkatramani Balaji, Kevin W. Bowman, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Heidi Cullen, Kenneth J. Davis, Scott C. Doney, Kevin R. Gurney, Alicia R. Karspeck, Charles D. Koven, Galen McKinley, Glen P. Peters, Julia Pongratz, Britt Stephens, and Colm Sweeney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6457,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6457, 2026
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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30 Dec 2025
New insights into decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic revealed by data-driven dynamical models
Andrew J. Nicoll, Hannah M. Christensen, Chris Huntingford, and Doug Smith
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6123,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6123, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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28 Dec 2025
Projected elevation-dependent warming in the Alps depicted with surface energy balance trends
Ian Castellanos, Martin Ménégoz, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Chantal Staquet, and Xavier Fettweis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6211,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6211, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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22 Dec 2025
| Highlight paper
Bridging science and practice on multi-hazard risk drivers: stakeholder insights from five pilot studies in Europe
Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Roxana Ciurean, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Abel López Diez, Jaime Díaz Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Tamara Febles Arévalo, Sara García González, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Carmen Alvarez-Albelo, Juan José Diaz-Hernandez, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Karina Reiter, Tristian Stolte, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, David Romero Manrique de Lara, Yeray Hernández González, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2295–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2295-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2295-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
21 Dec 2025
Underestimated Future Arctic Ocean Warming due to Unresolved Marine Heatwaves at Low Resolution
Ruijian Gou, Yaocheng Deng, Yingzhe Cui, Qi Shu, Hong Wang, Shengpeng Wang, Lixin Wu, and Gerrit Lohmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5296,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5296, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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18 Dec 2025
The effect of noise on the stability of convection in a conceptual model of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre
Koen J. van der Heijden, Swinda K. J. Falkena, and Anna S. von der Heydt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2273–2293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2273-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2273-2025, 2025
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18 Dec 2025
How polar-midlatitude atmospheric teleconnections depend on regional sea ice fraction and global warming level
Carley E. Iles, Bjørn H. Samset, and Marianne T. Lund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2253–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2253-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2253-2025, 2025
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17 Dec 2025
Multi-annual predictions of hot, dry and hot-dry compound extremes
Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Margarida Samso Cabre, and Markus G. Donat
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2225–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025, 2025
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10 Dec 2025
Joint evolution of irrigation, the water cycle and water resources under a strong climate change scenario from 1950 to 2100 in the IPSL-CM6
Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Frédérique Cheruy, and Josefine Ghattas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2201–2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2201-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2201-2025, 2025
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09 Dec 2025
Interactive physical data cubes: A novel perspective for exploring Earth system dynamics
Maximilian Söchting and Miguel D. Mahecha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5632,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5632, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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08 Dec 2025
Strong intensification of extreme fire weather in Europe under 3 °C compared to 2 °C global warming
A. Serkan Bayar, Joaquim G. Pinto, Célia M. Gouveia, and Alexandre M. Ramos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6004,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6004, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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08 Dec 2025
Simulating the impact of an AMOC weakening on the Antarctic Ice Sheet using a coupled climate and ice-sheet model
Anna Höse, Moritz Kreuzer, Willem Huiskamp, Stefan Petri, and Georg Feulner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5128,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5128, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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05 Dec 2025
Regional climate imprints of recent historical changes in anthropogenic Near Term Climate Forcers
Alba Santos-Espeso, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Pablo Ortega, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Markus G. Donat, Margarida Samso Cabré, and Saskia Loosveldt Tomas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2161-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2161-2025, 2025
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05 Dec 2025
The preseason warming of the Indian Ocean resulting in soybean failure in US
Menghan Li, Xichen Li, Yi Zhou, and Yurong Hou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2187–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2187-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2187-2025, 2025
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05 Dec 2025
Climate extremes limiting the growth of East Asian mangroves for future nature-based solutions
Ran Chen, Jin-Soo Kim, Jung-Eun Chu, Hyo-Jeong Kim, Bora Lee, Sujong Jeong, and Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5805,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5805, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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04 Dec 2025
Soil thermal memory regulates event-scale precipitation recycling lag in a dryland environment
Ruolin Li, Yang Cui, and Qi Feng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5752,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5752, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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04 Dec 2025
Large impact of extreme precipitation on projected blue-green water shares
Simon P. Heselschwerdt, Thorsten Wagener, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Anna M. Ukkola, Yannis Markonis, Yuting Yang, and Peter Greve
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5896,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5896, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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03 Dec 2025
Unexpected land-surface warming following a low-to-moderate forcing hypothetical nuclear war
Anson Ka Hei Cheung, Paul J. Kushner, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Zhihong Zhuo, and Marguerite L. Brown
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5650,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5650, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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28 Nov 2025
Quantifying Resilience in Non-Autonomous and Stochastic Earth System Dynamics with Application to Glacial-Interglacial Cycles
Jakob Harteg, Nico Wunderling, and Jonathan Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5058,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5058, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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27 Nov 2025
A Deep Learning Framework for Chlorophyll Prediction in Large Marine Ecosystems: Benchmarking with a Dynamic Model and Implications for Fish Catch Forecasts
Ji-Sook Park, Jong-Yeon Park, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jeong-Hwan Kim, and Woo Jin Jeon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5673,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5673, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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24 Nov 2025
On the foundation of the α-β-γ approach to carbon-climate feedbacks
Christian H. Reick and Guilherme L. Torres Mendonça
External preprint server, https://doi.org/https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0011-F3E7-6,https://doi.org/https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0011-F3E7-6, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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21 Nov 2025
Dynamic vegetation highlights first-order climate feedbacks and their dependence on the climate mean state
Pascale Braconnot, Nicolas Viovy, and Olivier Marti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2113–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2113-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2113-2025, 2025
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21 Nov 2025
Evaluating biogeophysical sensitivities to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models using observational constraints
Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2137–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2137-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2137-2025, 2025
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20 Nov 2025
A saddle-node bifurcation may be causing the AMOC collapse in the Community Earth System Model
René M. van Westen, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2063–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025, 2025
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20 Nov 2025
Irreversible phytoplankton community shifts over Subpolar North Atlantic in response to CO2 forcing
Dong-Geon Lee, Eun Young Kwon, Jonghun Kam, and Jong-Seong Kug
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2101–2111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2101-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2101-2025, 2025
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20 Nov 2025
| Highlight paper
Conditions for instability in the climate–carbon cycle system
Joseph Clarke, Chris Huntingford, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Rebecca Varney, Mark S. Williamson, and Peter Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2087–2100, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
20 Nov 2025
Ensemble simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum marine biogeochemistry and atmospheric pCO2 drawdown due to the soft-tissue biological carbon pump
Chia-Te Chien, Markus Pahlow, Christopher J. Somes, Markus Schartau, and Andreas Oschlies
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4907,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4907, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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19 Nov 2025
Inconclusive early warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events across Greenland ice cores
Clara Hummel, Niklas Boers, and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2035–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2035-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2035-2025, 2025
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18 Nov 2025
On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2021–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025, 2025
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14 Nov 2025
Climate change metrics: bridging IPCC AR6 updates and dynamic life cycle assessments
Vladimir Zieger, Thibaut Lecompte, Simon Guihéneuf, Yann Guevel, Manuel Bazzana, Thomas Gasser, and Yue He
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2003–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2003-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2003-2025, 2025
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14 Nov 2025
Teleconnections to the Baltic Sea Region: Controls, Predictability and Consequences
Florian Börgel, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, Leonie Barghorn, Leonard Borchert, Bronwyn Cahill, Cyril Dutheil, Leonie Esters, Malgorzata Falarz, Helena L. Filipsson, Matthias Gröger, Jari Hänninen, Magnus Hieronymus, Erko Jakobsen, Mehdi Pasha Karami, Karol Kulinski, Taavi Liblik, H. E. Markus Meier, Gabriele Messori, Lev Naumov, Thomas Neumann, Piia Post, Gregor Rehder, Anna Rutgersson, and Georg Sebastian Voelker
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5496,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5496, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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13 Nov 2025
Evolution of causal relationships under climate change: controls of Net Primary Productivity in the North Altantic Subpolar Gyre
Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4680,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4680, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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12 Nov 2025
The global climate response to High-Latitude Low-Altitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (HiLLA-SAI)
Alistair Duffey, Walker Lee, Lauren Wheeler, Peter Irvine, Benjamin Wagman, Matthew Henry, Daniele Visioni, Michel Tsamados, and Douglas MacMartin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5356,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5356, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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10 Nov 2025
A warming adjustment method for CORDEX RCM simulations
Stefanie Börsig, Dominik L. Schumacher, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4968,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4968, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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10 Nov 2025
Join the dots on planetary boundary interactions
Dieter Gerten, Bruna Almeida, Steven J. Lade, and Anna Norberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4761,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4761, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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