The following lists the recent preprints posted on EGUsphere with ESD-related topics, the recent preprints posted in ESD’s discussion forum, as well as final revised papers published recently in ESD.
26 Aug 2025
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model
Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, and Jonathan F. Donges
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1365–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025, 2025
Short summary
26 Aug 2025
A global map of Earth system interactions
Hannah Zoller, Steven J. Lade, C. Kendra Gotangco Gonzales, Ingo Fetzer, Nitin Chaudhary, and Juan C. Rocha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3341,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3341, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
19 Aug 2025
Effect of horizontal resolution in North Atlantic mixing and ocean circulation in the EC-Earth3P HighResMIP simulations
Eneko Martin-Martinez, Amanda Frigola, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Daria Kuznetsova, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Margarida Samsó Cabré, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, and Pablo Ortega
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1343–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025, 2025
Short summary
19 Aug 2025
A framework for assessing and understanding sources of error in Earth System Model emulation
Christopher B. Womack, Glenn Flierl, Shahine Bouabid, Andre N. Souza, Paolo Giani, Sebastian D. Eastham, and Noelle E. Selin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3792,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3792, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
18 Aug 2025
Conditions for Instability in the Climate-Carbon Cycle System
Joseph Clarke, Chris Huntingford, Paul David Longden Ritchie, Rebecca Varney, Mark Williamson, and Peter Cox
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3703,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3703, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
18 Aug 2025
Structural uncertainty in the direct human forcing of future global burned area
Oliver Perkins, Olivia Haas, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and James D. A. Millington
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3728,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3728, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
18 Aug 2025
An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields
Gosha Geogdzhayev, Andre N. Souza, Glenn R. Flierl, and Raffaele Ferrari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3768,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3768, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
15 Aug 2025
EC-Earth- and ERA5-driven ensemble hindcasts with the fully coupled ice-sheet–ocean–sea ice–atmosphere–land circum-Antarctic model PARASO
Florian Sauerland, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Sylvain Marchi, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, François Klein, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Charles Pelletier, Deborah Verfaillie, Lars Zipf, and Nicole van Lipzig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
13 Aug 2025
Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies
Ezra Brody, Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Ewa M. Bednarz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1325–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025, 2025
Short summary
11 Aug 2025
Quantifying the feedback between Antarctic meltwater release and subsurface Southern Ocean warming
Erwin Lambert, Dewi Le Bars, Eveline van der Linden, André Jüling, and Sybren Drijfhout
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1303–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025, 2025
Short summary
11 Aug 2025
Seamless climate information for the next months to multiple years: merging of seasonal and decadal predictions, and their comparison to multi-annual predictions
Carlos Delgado-Torres, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Verónica Torralba, Roberto Bilbao, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó-Cabré, Albert Soret, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3674,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3674, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
05 Aug 2025
Physical characterization of the boundary separating safe and unsafe AMOC overshoot behavior
Aurora Faure Ragani and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1287-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1287-2025, 2025
Short summary
04 Aug 2025
Beyond tipping points: risks, equity, and the ethics of intervention
Laura M. Pereira, Steven R. Smith, Lauren Gifford, Peter Newell, Sebastian Villasante, Therezah Achieng, Azucena Castro, Sara M. Constantino, Tom Powell, Ashish Ghadiali, Ben Smith, Coleen Vogel, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1267-2025, 2025
Short summary
01 Aug 2025
Diagnosing aerosol–meteorological interactions on snow within Earth system models: a proof-of-concept study over High Mountain Asia
Chayan Roychoudhury, Cenlin He, Rajesh Kumar, and Avelino F. Arellano Jr.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1237–1266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1237-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1237-2025, 2025
Short summary
01 Aug 2025
Physics of AMOC multistable regime shifts due to freshwater biases in an EMIC
Amber A. Boot and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1221–1235, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1221-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1221-2025, 2025
Short summary
30 Jul 2025
Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change
Jürgen Scheffran, Weisi Guo, Florian Krampe, and Uche Okpara
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1197–1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025, 2025
Short summary
29 Jul 2025
Dynamical System Metrics and Weather Regimes explain the seasonally-varying link between European Heatwaves and the large-scale atmospheric circulation
Ines Dillerup, Alexander Lemburg, Sebastian Buschow, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3379,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3379, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
28 Jul 2025
Nitrogen deposition and climate drive plant nitrogen uptake while soil factors drive nitrogen use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems
Helena Vallicrosa, Katrin Fleischer, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Jakub Černý, Di Tian, Angeliki Kourmouli, Carolina Mayoral, Diego Grados, Mingzhen Lu, and César Terrer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1183–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1183-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1183-2025, 2025
Short summary
25 Jul 2025
Challenges and Opportunities for Understanding Societal Impacts of Climate Extremes
Gabriele Messori, Emily Boyd, Joakim Nivre, and Elena Raffetti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3451,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3451, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
25 Jul 2025
Explain the Black Box for the Sake of Science: The Scientific Method in the Era of Generative Artificial Intelligence
Gianmarco Mengaldo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3509,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3509, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
25 Jul 2025
Accounting for empirical global soil organic characteristics and moisture heterogeneities in soil organic decomposition scheme of land surface models
Elodie Salmon, Bertrand Guenet, and Agnès Ducharne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3511,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3511, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
23 Jul 2025
Quantifying changes in seasonal temperature variations using a functional data analysis approach
Eva Holtanová, Jan Koláček, and Lukas Brunner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3360,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3360, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
22 Jul 2025
The state of global catastrophic risk research: a bibliometric review
Florian Ulrich Jehn, John-Oliver Engler, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Magdalena Wache, Ekaterina Ilin, Laura Cook, Lalitha S. Sundaram, Frederic Hanusch, and Luke Kemp
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1053–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025, 2025
Short summary
21 Jul 2025
| Highlight paper
Leveraging the satellite-based climate data record CLARA-A3 to understand the climatic trend regimes relevant for solar energy applications over Europe
Abhay Devasthale, Sandra Andersson, Erik Engström, Frank Kaspar, Jörg Trentmann, Anke Duguay-Tetzlaff, Jan Fokke Meirink, Erik Kjellström, Tomas Landelius, Manu Anna Thomas, and Karl-Göran Karlsson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1169–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1169-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
18 Jul 2025
Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds
Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk and Paul D. L. Ritchie
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1153–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025, 2025
Short summary
18 Jul 2025
Future changes in regional inter-monthly precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors
Yeon-Hee Kim and Seung-Ki Min
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1135–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025, 2025
Short summary
18 Jul 2025
Bridging Science and Practice on Multi-Hazard Risk Drivers: Stakeholder Insights from Five Pilot Studies in Europe
Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Roxana Ciurean, Noemi Padron, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Abel López Diez, Jaime Díaz Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Tamara Febles Arévalo, Sara García González, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Carmen Alvarez-Albelo, Juan José Diaz-Hernandez, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Karina Reiter, Tristian Stolte, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, David Romero Manrique de Lara, Yeray Hernández González, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Short summary
17 Jul 2025
Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution
Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian L. E. Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Dae-Won Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana N. Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1103–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025, 2025
Short summary
17 Jul 2025
A causality-based method for multi-model comparison: application to relationships between atmospheric, oceanic and marine biogeochemical variables
Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025, 2025
Short summary
17 Jul 2025
Climate-related signals in the GV7-C ice core from East Antarctica for 1782–2013 CE: Potential relevance to climate and teleconnections between tropics and Antarctica
Yalalt Nyamgerel, Yeongcheol Han, Soon Do Hur, Hyemi Kim, Songyi Kim, Jangil Moon, Barbara Stenni, and Jeonghoon Lee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2408,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2408, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
16 Jul 2025
On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
Short summary
15 Jul 2025
Concurrent modes of climate variability linked to spatially compounding wind and precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere
Bastien François, Khalil Teber, Lou Brett, Richard Leeding, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1029–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025, 2025
Short summary
14 Jul 2025
A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content
Teresa Carmo-Costa, Roberto Bilbao, Jon Robson, Ana Teles-Machado, and Pablo Ortega
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1001–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025, 2025
Short summary
11 Jul 2025
| Highlight paper
Delineating the technosphere: definition, categorization, and characteristics
Eric D. Galbraith, Abdullah Al Faisal, Tanya Matitia, William Fajzel, Ian Hatton, Helmut Haberl, Fridolin Krausmann, and Dominik Wiedenhofer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 979–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
10 Jul 2025
The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements
Gideon Futerman, Mira Adhikari, Alistair Duffey, Yuanchao Fan, Jessica Gurevitch, Peter Irvine, and Claudia Wieners
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 939–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025, 2025
Short summary
08 Jul 2025
Extreme events in the Amazon after deforestation
Arim Yoon, Cathy Hohenegger, Jiawei Bao, and Lukas Brunner
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3221,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3221, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
Short summary
04 Jul 2025
The Preseason Warming of the Indian Ocean Resulting in Soybean Failure in U.S.
Menghan Li, Xichen Li, Yi Zhou, and Yurong Hou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2930,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2930, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
Short summary
01 Jul 2025
Improving historical trends in the INFERNO fire model using the Human Development Index
Joao C. M. Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
Short summary
CC BY 4.0