The following lists the recent preprints posted on EGUsphere with ESD-related topics, the recent preprints posted in ESD’s discussion forum, as well as final revised papers published recently in ESD.
07 Oct 2025
Comparing the seasonal predictability of the Tropical Pacific variability in EC-Earth3 at two horizontal resolutions
Aude Carréric, Pablo Ortega, Roberto Bilbao, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Vladimir Lapin, Ferran López-Martí, Markus Donat, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4658,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4658, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Uncertain current and future ocean deoxygenation due to internal climate variability and observational gaps
Yohei Takano and Tatiana Ilyina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3757,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3757, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Biochar-Induced Soil Property Changes May Reduce Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: Insights from Earth System Model Experiments
Lin Yu, Thomas Kleinen, Min Jung Kwon, Christian Knoblauch, and Christian Beer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4648,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4648, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Emerging global freshwater challenges unveiled through observation-constrained projections
Fei Huo, Yanping Li, and Zhenhua Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4720,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4720, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland outlet glaciers limit predictability of a future ice sheet collapse
Kolja Kypke, Marisa Montoya, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, and Peter Ditlevsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4116,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4116, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Developing Guidelines for Working with Multi-Model Ensembles in CMIP
Anja Katzenberger, Jhayron S. Perez-Carrasquilla, Keighan Gemmell, Evgenia Galytska, Christine Leclerc, P. Punya, Indrani Roy, Arianna Varuolo-Clarke, Milica Tošić, and Nina Črnivec
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4744,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4744, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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02 Oct 2025
| Highlight paper
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1453–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025, 2025
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30 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes
Florian Ulrich Jehn, Łukasz G. Gajewski, Johanna Hedlund, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Lili Xia, Nico Wunderling, and David Denkenberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1585–1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025, 2025
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30 Sep 2025
From Farm to Planet: The InSEEDS World-Earth Model for Simulating Transitions to Regenerative Agriculture
Luana Schwarz, Jannes Breier, Hannah Prawitz, Max Bechthold, Werner von Bloh, Sara M. Constantino, Dieter Gerten, Jobst Heitzig, Ronja Hotz, Leander John, Christoph Müller, Johan Rockström, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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29 Sep 2025
Ocean dynamics amplify remote warming effects of reforestation
Pierre Etienne Banville, Alexander J. MacIsaac, and Kirsten Zickfeld
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4000,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4000, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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26 Sep 2025
100 kyr ice age cycles as a timescale-matching problem
Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1569–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025, 2025
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25 Sep 2025
Storylines of future drought in the face of uncertain rainfall projections: a New Zealand case study
Hamish Lewis, Luke J. Harrington, Peter B. Gibson, and Neelesh Rampal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1557–1568, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1557-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1557-2025, 2025
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25 Sep 2025
Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model
Robin S. Smith, Tarkan A. Bilge, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Till Kuhlbrodt, Charlotte Lang, Spencer Liddicoat, Tom Mitcham, Jane Mulcahy, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Andrew Orr, Julien Palmieri, Antony J. Payne, Steven Rumbold, Marc Stringer, Ranjini Swaminathan, Sarah Taylor, Jeremy Walton, and Colin Jones
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4476,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4476, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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24 Sep 2025
Bayesian analysis of early warning signals using a time-dependent model
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Luc Hallali, and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1539–1556, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1539-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1539-2025, 2025
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24 Sep 2025
Reduction of uncertainty in near-term climate forecast by combining observations and decadal predictions
Rémy Bonnet, Julien Boé, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, and Christophe Cassou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4463,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4463, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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23 Sep 2025
Increased heating of the land surface as hot-dry events persist
Josephin Kroll, Ruth Stephan, Andrew F. Feldman, Diego G. Miralles, and Rene Orth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4391,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4391, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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17 Sep 2025
Carbon–climate feedback higher when assuming Michaelis–Menten kinetics of respiration
Christian Beer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1527–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1527-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1527-2025, 2025
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17 Sep 2025
The Largest Crop Production Shocks: Magnitude, Causes and Frequency
Florian Ulrich Jehn, James Mulhall, Simon Blouin, Łukasz G. Gajewski, and Nico Wunderling
External preprint server, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31223/X55B25,https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31223/X55B25, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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16 Sep 2025
Decoded Antarctic snow accumulation history reconciles observed and modeled trends in accumulation and large-scale warming patterns
David P. Schneider, Ziqi Yin, Gemma K. O'Connor, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Zaria I. Cast, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Zachary I. Espinosa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3666,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3666, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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15 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1523–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025, 2025
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12 Sep 2025
Global stability and tipping point prediction in a coral–algae model using landscape–flux theory
Li Xu, Denis D. Patterson, Simon Asher Levin, and Jin Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1503–1522, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1503-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1503-2025, 2025
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11 Sep 2025
Simple physics-based adjustments reconcile the results of Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques for moisture tracking in atmospheric rivers
Alfredo Crespo-Otero, Damián Insua-Costa, Emilio Hernández-García, Cristóbal López, and Gonzalo Míguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1483–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1483-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1483-2025, 2025
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11 Sep 2025
Hysteresis and irreversibility in permafrost physical response to increase and decrease of CO2 emissions
Natsuki Watanabe, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomohiro Hajima, Tokuta Yokohata, and Irina Melnikova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4088,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4088, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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09 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
Multi-centennial climate change in a warming world beyond 2100
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1427–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025, 2025
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08 Sep 2025
Constrained attribution of changes in winds over the Southern Ocean from 1950 to 2100
Tereza Jarníková, Colin Jones, Steven Rumbold, and Corinne Le Quéré
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3374,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3374, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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04 Sep 2025
Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models
Juliette Deman and Julien Boé
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1409–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025, 2025
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02 Sep 2025
A risk assessment framework for interacting tipping elements
Jacques Bara, Nico Wunderling, and Wolfram Barfuss
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4077,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4077, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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01 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
A climate suitability index for species distribution modelling applied to terrestrial arthropods in the Mediterranean region
James M. Ciarlo', Monique Borg Inguanez, Erika Coppola, Aaron Micallef, and David Mifsud
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1391–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1391-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1391-2025, 2025
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29 Aug 2025
How polar-to-midlatitude atmospheric teleconnections depend on regional sea ice fraction and global warming level
Carley Elizabeth Iles, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, and Marianne Tronstad Lund
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4115,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4115, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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26 Aug 2025
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model
Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, and Jonathan F. Donges
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1365–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025, 2025
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26 Aug 2025
A global map of Earth system interactions
Hannah Zoller, Steven J. Lade, C. Kendra Gotangco Gonzales, Ingo Fetzer, Nitin Chaudhary, and Juan C. Rocha
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3341,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3341, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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19 Aug 2025
Effect of horizontal resolution in North Atlantic mixing and ocean circulation in the EC-Earth3P HighResMIP simulations
Eneko Martin-Martinez, Amanda Frigola, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Daria Kuznetsova, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Margarida Samsó Cabré, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, and Pablo Ortega
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1343–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1343-2025, 2025
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19 Aug 2025
A framework for assessing and understanding sources of error in Earth System Model emulation
Christopher B. Womack, Glenn Flierl, Shahine Bouabid, Andre N. Souza, Paolo Giani, Sebastian D. Eastham, and Noelle E. Selin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3792,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3792, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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18 Aug 2025
Conditions for Instability in the Climate-Carbon Cycle System
Joseph Clarke, Chris Huntingford, Paul David Longden Ritchie, Rebecca Varney, Mark Williamson, and Peter Cox
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3703,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3703, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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18 Aug 2025
Structural uncertainty in the direct human forcing of future global burned area
Oliver Perkins, Olivia Haas, Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and James D. A. Millington
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3728,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3728, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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18 Aug 2025
An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields
Gosha Geogdzhayev, Andre N. Souza, Glenn R. Flierl, and Raffaele Ferrari
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3768,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3768, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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15 Aug 2025
EC-Earth- and ERA5-driven ensemble hindcasts with the fully coupled ice-sheet–ocean–sea ice–atmosphere–land circum-Antarctic model PARASO
Florian Sauerland, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Sylvain Marchi, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, François Klein, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Charles Pelletier, Deborah Verfaillie, Lars Zipf, and Nicole van Lipzig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2889, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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13 Aug 2025
Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies
Ezra Brody, Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Ewa M. Bednarz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1325–1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025, 2025
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11 Aug 2025
Quantifying the feedback between Antarctic meltwater release and subsurface Southern Ocean warming
Erwin Lambert, Dewi Le Bars, Eveline van der Linden, André Jüling, and Sybren Drijfhout
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1303–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025, 2025
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11 Aug 2025
Seamless climate information for the next months to multiple years: merging of seasonal and decadal predictions, and their comparison to multi-annual predictions
Carlos Delgado-Torres, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Verónica Torralba, Roberto Bilbao, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó-Cabré, Albert Soret, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3674,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3674, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
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