07 Oct 2025
Comparing the seasonal predictability of the Tropical Pacific variability in EC-Earth3 at two horizontal resolutions
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
06 Oct 2025
Uncertain current and future ocean deoxygenation due to internal climate variability and observational gaps
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
06 Oct 2025
Biochar-Induced Soil Property Changes May Reduce Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: Insights from Earth System Model Experiments
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
06 Oct 2025
Emerging global freshwater challenges unveiled through observation-constrained projections
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
06 Oct 2025
Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland outlet glaciers limit predictability of a future ice sheet collapse
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
06 Oct 2025
Developing Guidelines for Working with Multi-Model Ensembles in CMIP
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
02 Oct 2025
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Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1453–1482,
2025 30 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1585–1603,
2025 30 Sep 2025
From Farm to Planet: The InSEEDS World-Earth Model for Simulating Transitions to Regenerative Agriculture
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
29 Sep 2025
Ocean dynamics amplify remote warming effects of reforestation
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
26 Sep 2025
100 kyr ice age cycles as a timescale-matching problem
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1569–1584,
2025 25 Sep 2025
Storylines of future drought in the face of uncertain rainfall projections: a New Zealand case study
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1557–1568,
2025 25 Sep 2025
Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
24 Sep 2025
Bayesian analysis of early warning signals using a time-dependent model
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1539–1556,
2025 24 Sep 2025
Reduction of uncertainty in near-term climate forecast by combining observations and decadal predictions
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
23 Sep 2025
Increased heating of the land surface as hot-dry events persist
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
17 Sep 2025
Carbon–climate feedback higher when assuming Michaelis–Menten kinetics of respiration
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1527–1537,
2025 17 Sep 2025
The Largest Crop Production Shocks: Magnitude, Causes and Frequency
External preprint server,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
16 Sep 2025
Decoded Antarctic snow accumulation history reconciles observed and modeled trends in accumulation and large-scale warming patterns
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
15 Sep 2025
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ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1523–1526,
2025 12 Sep 2025
Global stability and tipping point prediction in a coral–algae model using landscape–flux theory
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1503–1522,
2025 11 Sep 2025
Simple physics-based adjustments reconcile the results of Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques for moisture tracking in atmospheric rivers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1483–1501,
2025 11 Sep 2025
Hysteresis and irreversibility in permafrost physical response to increase and decrease of CO2 emissions
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
09 Sep 2025
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Multi-centennial climate change in a warming world beyond 2100
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1427–1451,
2025 08 Sep 2025
Constrained attribution of changes in winds over the Southern Ocean from 1950 to 2100
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
04 Sep 2025
Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1409–1426,
2025 02 Sep 2025
A risk assessment framework for interacting tipping elements
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
01 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
A climate suitability index for species distribution modelling applied to terrestrial arthropods in the Mediterranean region
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1391–1407,
2025 29 Aug 2025
How polar-to-midlatitude atmospheric teleconnections depend on regional sea ice fraction and global warming level
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
26 Aug 2025
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1365–1390,
2025 26 Aug 2025
A global map of Earth system interactions
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
19 Aug 2025
Effect of horizontal resolution in North Atlantic mixing and ocean circulation in the EC-Earth3P HighResMIP simulations
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1343–1364,
2025 19 Aug 2025
A framework for assessing and understanding sources of error in Earth System Model emulation
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
18 Aug 2025
Conditions for Instability in the Climate-Carbon Cycle System
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
18 Aug 2025
Structural uncertainty in the direct human forcing of future global burned area
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
18 Aug 2025
An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
15 Aug 2025
EC-Earth- and ERA5-driven ensemble hindcasts with the fully coupled ice-sheet–ocean–sea ice–atmosphere–land circum-Antarctic model PARASO
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
13 Aug 2025
Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1325–1341,
2025 11 Aug 2025
Quantifying the feedback between Antarctic meltwater release and subsurface Southern Ocean warming
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1303–1323,
2025 11 Aug 2025
Seamless climate information for the next months to multiple years: merging of seasonal and decadal predictions, and their comparison to multi-annual predictions
EGUsphere,
2025Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)