doi:https://doi.org/

The following lists the recent preprints posted on EGUsphere with ESD-related topics, the recent preprints posted in ESD’s discussion forum, as well as final revised papers published recently in ESD.

18 Jul 2025

Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds

Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk and Paul D. L. Ritchie

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1153–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025, 2025

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18 Jul 2025

Future changes in regional inter-monthly precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors

Yeon-Hee Kim and Seung-Ki Min

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1135–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025, 2025

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18 Jul 2025

Bridging Science and Practice on Multi-Hazard Risk Drivers: Stakeholder Insights from Five Pilot Studies in Europe

Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Roxana Ciurean, Noemi Padron, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Abel López Diez, Jaime Díaz Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Tamara Febles Arévalo, Sara García González, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Carmen Alvarez-Albelo, Juan José Diaz-Hernandez, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Karina Reiter, Tristian Stolte, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, David Romero Manrique de Lara, Yeray Hernández González, and Philip J. Ward

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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17 Jul 2025

Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution

Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian L. E. Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Dae-Won Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana N. Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1103–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1103-2025, 2025

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17 Jul 2025

A causality-based method for multi-model comparison: application to relationships between atmospheric, oceanic and marine biogeochemical variables

Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025, 2025

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17 Jul 2025

Yalalt Nyamgerel, Yeongcheol Han, Soon Do Hur, Hyemi Kim, Songyi Kim, Jangil Moon, Barbara Stenni, and Jeonghoon Lee

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2408,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2408, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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16 Jul 2025

On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations

Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3270, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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15 Jul 2025

Concurrent modes of climate variability linked to spatially compounding wind and precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere

Bastien François, Khalil Teber, Lou Brett, Richard Leeding, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Emanuele Bevacqua

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1029–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025, 2025

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14 Jul 2025

A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content

Teresa Carmo-Costa, Roberto Bilbao, Jon Robson, Ana Teles-Machado, and Pablo Ortega

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1001–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025, 2025

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11 Jul 2025

| Highlight paper

Delineating the technosphere: definition, categorization, and characteristics

Eric D. Galbraith, Abdullah Al Faisal, Tanya Matitia, William Fajzel, Ian Hatton, Helmut Haberl, Fridolin Krausmann, and Dominik Wiedenhofer

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 979–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025, 2025

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10 Jul 2025

The interaction of solar radiation modification with Earth system tipping elements

Gideon Futerman, Mira Adhikari, Alistair Duffey, Yuanchao Fan, Jessica Gurevitch, Peter Irvine, and Claudia Wieners

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 939–978, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-939-2025, 2025

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08 Jul 2025

Trends and spatial variation of oceanic dimethyl sulfide under a warming climate revealed by an artificial neural network model

Lyu Yan and Wei-Lei Wang

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3185,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3185, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

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08 Jul 2025

Extreme events in the Amazon after deforestation

Arim Yoon, Cathy Hohenegger, Jiawei Bao, and Lukas Brunner

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3221,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3221, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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04 Jul 2025

The Preseason Warming of the Indian Ocean Resulting in Soybean Failure in U.S.

Menghan Li, Xichen Li, Yi Zhou, and Yurong Hou

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2930,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2930, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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01 Jul 2025

Improving historical trends in the INFERNO fire model using the Human Development Index

Joao C. M. Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3066, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

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27 Jun 2025

A simple physical model for glacial cycles

Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025, 2025

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26 Jun 2025

Peat oxic and anoxic controls of Sphagnum decomposition rates in the Holocene Peatland Model decomposition module estimated from litterbag data

Henning Teickner, Edzer Pebesma, and Klaus-Holger Knorr

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 891–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-891-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-891-2025, 2025

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24 Jun 2025

Historical Climate and Future Projection in the North Atlantic and Arctic: Insights from EC-Earth3 High-Resolution Simulations

Mehdi Pasha Karami, Torben Koenigk, Shiyu Wang, René Navarro Labastida, Tim Kruschke, Aude Carreric, Pablo Ortega, Klaus Wyser, Ramon Fuentes Franco, Agatha M. de Boer, Marie Sicard, and Aitor Aldama Campino

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2653,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2653, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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23 Jun 2025

Simulating regional impacts of irrigation on the atmospheric and terrestrial water cycle using Earth System Model physics

Pierre Tiengou, Agnès Ducharne, and Frédérique Cheruy

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2491,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2491, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

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18 Jun 2025

The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP): Assessing tipping point risks in the Earth system

Ricarda Winkelmann, Donovan P. Dennis, Jonathan F. Donges, Sina Loriani, Ann Kristin Klose, Jesse F. Abrams, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Torsten Albrecht, David Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Javier Blasco Navarro, Victor Brovkin, Eleanor Burke, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Reik V. Donner, Markus Drüke, Goran Georgievski, Heiko Goelzer, Anna B. Harper, Gabriele Hegerl, Marina Hirota, Aixue Hu, Laura C. Jackson, Colin Jones, Hyungjun Kim, Torben Koenigk, Peter Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, Hannah Liddy, José Licón-Saláiz, Maxence Menthon, Marisa Montoya, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Francesco Pausata, Stefan Rahmstorf, Karoline Ramin, Alexander Robinson, Johan Rockström, Anastasia Romanou, Boris Sakschewski, Christina Schädel, Steven Sherwood, Robin S. Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Didier Swingedouw, Matteo Willeit, Wilbert Weijer, Richard Wood, Klaus Wyser, and Shuting Yang

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

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16 Jun 2025

Understanding European Heatwaves with Variational Autoencoders

Aytaç Paçal, Birgit Hassler, Katja Weigel, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Veronika Eyring

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2460,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2460, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)

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16 Jun 2025

Improving Terrestrial Carbon Flux Simulations With Machine Learning and Global Earth Observations

Christian Seiler

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2517,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2517, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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12 Jun 2025

Global relevance of atmospheric and land surface drivers for hot temperature extremes

Yigit Uckan, Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Kelley De Polt, and René Orth

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 869–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025, 2025

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12 Jun 2025

Climate change metrics: bridging IPCC AR6 updates and dynamic life cycle assessments

Vladimir Zieger, Thibaut Lecompte, Simon Guihéneuf, Yann Guevel, Manuel Bazzana, Thomas Gasser, and Yue He

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2442,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2442, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)

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11 Jun 2025

Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6

Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025

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11 Jun 2025

Estimating lateral nitrogen transfers over the last century through the global river network using a land surface model

Minna Ma, Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, and Pierre Regnier

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 841–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-841-2025, 2025

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04 Jun 2025

Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework

Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan Cornelis Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 753–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025, 2025

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04 Jun 2025

The effect of noise on the stability of convection in a conceptual model of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

Koen J. van der Heijden, Swinda K. J. Falkena, and Anna S. von der Heydt

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2074,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2074, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

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02 Jun 2025

Influence of floodplains and groundwater dynamics on the present-day climate simulated by the CNRM climate model

Bertrand Decharme and Jeanne Colin

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 729–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-729-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-729-2025, 2025

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28 May 2025

ESD Ideas: Near-real-time preliminary detection of carbon dioxide source and sink areas using a Laplacian filter

Yana Savytska, Viktor Smolii, and Nils Weitzel

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 721–727, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-721-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-721-2025, 2025

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28 May 2025

Enhanced Climate Reproducibility Testing with False Discovery Rate Correction

Michael E. Kelleher and Salil Mahajan

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2311,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2311, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 7 comments)

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27 May 2025

Setting up the physical principles of resilience in a model of the Earth System

Orfeu Bertolami and Magnus Nyström

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2163,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2163, 2025

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)

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21 May 2025

Nonlinear causal dependencies as a signature of the complexity of the climate dynamics

Stéphane Vannitsem, X. San Liang, and Carlos A. Pires

Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 703–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-703-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-703-2025, 2025

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