The following lists the recent preprints posted on EGUsphere with ESD-related topics, the recent preprints posted in ESD’s discussion forum, as well as final revised papers published recently in ESD.
22 Oct 2025
Late Pliocene ice sheets as an analogue for future climate: a sensitivity study of the polar Southern Hemisphere
Katherine Power, Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, and Qiong Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1845–1863, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1845-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1845-2025, 2025
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21 Oct 2025
Permafrost response and feedback under temperature stabilization and overshoot scenarios with different global warming levels
Min Cui, Duoying Ji, and Yangxin Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1809–1831, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1809-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1809-2025, 2025
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21 Oct 2025
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models
Swinda K. J. Falkena, Henk A. Dijkstra, and Anna S. von der Heydt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1833–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1833-2025, 2025
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21 Oct 2025
Tipping interactions and cascades on multimillennial time scales in a model of reduced complexity
Victor Couplet and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4959,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4959, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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20 Oct 2025
Representation of polynyas in the Ross Sea coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model P-SKRIPSv2
Alexandra Gossart, Alena Malyarenko, Liv Cornelissen, Craig Stevens, Una Miller, Christopher J. Zappa, Nancy Luca, Pasquale Castagno, and Giorgio Budillon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4332,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4332, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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17 Oct 2025
A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain
Manon Maisonnier, Maoyuan Feng, David Bastviken, Sandra Arndt, Ronny Lauerwald, Aidin Jabbari, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Murray D. MacKay, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1779–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1779-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1779-2025, 2025
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16 Oct 2025
Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1759–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025, 2025
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16 Oct 2025
| Highlight paper
AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations
Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1739–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025, 2025
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15 Oct 2025
Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and Standardized Precipitation Index by constraining transient climate model simulations
Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Markus G. Donat, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Rashed Mahmood, Andrea Toreti, and Danila Volpi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1723–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025, 2025
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15 Oct 2025
Normalizing the permafrost carbon feedback contribution to the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions and the Zero Emissions Commitment
Norman J. Steinert and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1711–1721, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025, 2025
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15 Oct 2025
Detecting transitions and quantifying differences in two SST datasets using spatial permutation entropy
Juan Gancio, Giulio Tirabassi, Cristina Masoller, and Marcelo Barreiro
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4879,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4879, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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15 Oct 2025
Solar Radiation Modification is projected to increase land carbon storage and to protect the Amazon rainforest
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Olivier Boucher, Peter M. Cox, James M. Haywood, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4889,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4889, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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15 Oct 2025
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity and recent record-breaking warm years
Patric J. L. Boardman, Joseph Clarke, Peter M. Cox, Chris Huntingford, Christopher D. Jones, and Mark S. Williamson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4899,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4899, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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10 Oct 2025
Positive tipping points for accelerating adoption of regenerative practices in African smallholder farming systems: what drives and sustains adoption?
Antony Philip Emenyu, Thomas Pienkowski, Andrew M. Cunliffe, Timothy M. Lenton, and Tom W. R. Powell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1699–1710, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1699-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1699-2025, 2025
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10 Oct 2025
Sensitivity of winter Arctic amplification in NorESM2
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1671–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025, 2025
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09 Oct 2025
Eco-evolutionary modelling of global vegetation dynamics and the impact of CO2 during the late Quaternary: insights from contrasting periods
Jierong Zhao, Boya Zhou, Sandy P. Harrison, and Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1655–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1655-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1655-2025, 2025
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08 Oct 2025
| Highlight paper
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
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08 Oct 2025
ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making
Andrew D. King, Nerilie J. Abram, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1605–1609, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025, 2025
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07 Oct 2025
Comparing the seasonal predictability of the Tropical Pacific variability in EC-Earth3 at two horizontal resolutions
Aude Carréric, Pablo Ortega, Roberto Bilbao, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Vladimir Lapin, Ferran López-Martí, Markus Donat, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4658,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4658, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Uncertain current and future ocean deoxygenation due to internal climate variability and observational gaps
Yohei Takano and Tatiana Ilyina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3757,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3757, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Biochar-Induced Soil Property Changes May Reduce Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: Insights from Earth System Model Experiments
Lin Yu, Thomas Kleinen, Min Jung Kwon, Christian Knoblauch, and Christian Beer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4648,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4648, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Emerging global freshwater challenges unveiled through observation-constrained projections
Fei Huo, Yanping Li, and Zhenhua Li
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4720,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4720, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland outlet glaciers limit predictability of a future ice sheet collapse
Kolja Kypke, Marisa Montoya, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, and Peter Ditlevsen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4116,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4116, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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06 Oct 2025
Developing Guidelines for Working with Multi-Model Ensembles in CMIP
Anja Katzenberger, Jhayron S. Perez-Carrasquilla, Keighan Gemmell, Evgenia Galytska, Christine Leclerc, P. Punya, Indrani Roy, Arianna Varuolo-Clarke, Milica Tošić, and Nina Črnivec
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4744,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4744, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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02 Oct 2025
| Highlight paper
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1453–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1453-2025, 2025
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30 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes
Florian Ulrich Jehn, Łukasz G. Gajewski, Johanna Hedlund, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Lili Xia, Nico Wunderling, and David Denkenberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1585–1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025, 2025
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30 Sep 2025
From Farm to Planet: The InSEEDS World-Earth Model for Simulating Transitions to Regenerative Agriculture
Luana Schwarz, Jannes Breier, Hannah Prawitz, Max Bechthold, Werner von Bloh, Sara M. Constantino, Dieter Gerten, Jobst Heitzig, Ronja Hotz, Leander John, Christoph Müller, Johan Rockström, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4079, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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29 Sep 2025
Ocean dynamics amplify remote warming effects of reforestation
Pierre Etienne Banville, Alexander J. MacIsaac, and Kirsten Zickfeld
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4000,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4000, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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26 Sep 2025
100 kyr ice age cycles as a timescale-matching problem
Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1569–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025, 2025
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25 Sep 2025
Storylines of future drought in the face of uncertain rainfall projections: a New Zealand case study
Hamish Lewis, Luke J. Harrington, Peter B. Gibson, and Neelesh Rampal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1557–1568, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1557-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1557-2025, 2025
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25 Sep 2025
Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model
Robin S. Smith, Tarkan A. Bilge, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Till Kuhlbrodt, Charlotte Lang, Spencer Liddicoat, Tom Mitcham, Jane Mulcahy, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Andrew Orr, Julien Palmieri, Antony J. Payne, Steven Rumbold, Marc Stringer, Ranjini Swaminathan, Sarah Taylor, Jeremy Walton, and Colin Jones
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4476,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4476, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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24 Sep 2025
Bayesian analysis of early warning signals using a time-dependent model
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Luc Hallali, and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1539–1556, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1539-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1539-2025, 2025
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24 Sep 2025
Reduction of uncertainty in near-term climate forecast by combining observations and decadal predictions
Rémy Bonnet, Julien Boé, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, and Christophe Cassou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4463,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4463, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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23 Sep 2025
Increased heating of the land surface as hot-dry events persist
Josephin Kroll, Ruth Stephan, Andrew F. Feldman, Diego G. Miralles, and Rene Orth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4391,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4391, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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17 Sep 2025
Carbon–climate feedback higher when assuming Michaelis–Menten kinetics of respiration
Christian Beer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1527–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1527-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1527-2025, 2025
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17 Sep 2025
The Largest Crop Production Shocks: Magnitude, Causes and Frequency
Florian Ulrich Jehn, James Mulhall, Simon Blouin, Łukasz G. Gajewski, and Nico Wunderling
External preprint server, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31223/X55B25,https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31223/X55B25, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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16 Sep 2025
Decoded Antarctic snow accumulation history reconciles observed and modeled trends in accumulation and large-scale warming patterns
David P. Schneider, Ziqi Yin, Gemma K. O'Connor, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Zaria I. Cast, Rajashree Tri Datta, and Zachary I. Espinosa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3666,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3666, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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15 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1523–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025, 2025
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12 Sep 2025
Global stability and tipping point prediction in a coral–algae model using landscape–flux theory
Li Xu, Denis D. Patterson, Simon Asher Levin, and Jin Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1503–1522, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1503-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1503-2025, 2025
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11 Sep 2025
Simple physics-based adjustments reconcile the results of Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques for moisture tracking in atmospheric rivers
Alfredo Crespo-Otero, Damián Insua-Costa, Emilio Hernández-García, Cristóbal López, and Gonzalo Míguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1483–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1483-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1483-2025, 2025
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11 Sep 2025
Hysteresis and irreversibility in permafrost physical response to increase and decrease of CO2 emissions
Natsuki Watanabe, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomohiro Hajima, Tokuta Yokohata, and Irina Melnikova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4088,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4088, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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09 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
Multi-centennial climate change in a warming world beyond 2100
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1427–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025, 2025
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08 Sep 2025
Constrained attribution of changes in winds over the Southern Ocean from 1950 to 2100
Tereza Jarníková, Colin Jones, Steven Rumbold, and Corinne Le Quéré
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3374,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3374, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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04 Sep 2025
Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models
Juliette Deman and Julien Boé
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1409–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025, 2025
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02 Sep 2025
A risk assessment framework for interacting tipping elements
Jacques Bara, Nico Wunderling, and Wolfram Barfuss
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4077,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4077, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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01 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
A climate suitability index for species distribution modelling applied to terrestrial arthropods in the Mediterranean region
James M. Ciarlo', Monique Borg Inguanez, Erika Coppola, Aaron Micallef, and David Mifsud
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1391–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1391-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1391-2025, 2025
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29 Aug 2025
How polar-to-midlatitude atmospheric teleconnections depend on regional sea ice fraction and global warming level
Carley Elizabeth Iles, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, and Marianne Tronstad Lund
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4115,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4115, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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