The evolution of irrigation under climate change is analyzed between 1950 and 2100. Results indicate that the influence of irrigation on evapotranspiration in irrigated areas increases in the future (compared to an historical period). Also, the effect of irrigation on water resources is also higher in the future than in the historical period. Finally, we identify areas where future hydroclimate conditions can limit irrigation, or areas where irrigation can increase tensions around water use.

The magnitude of future Arctic amplification is highly uncertain. Using the Norwegian Earth system model, we explore the effect of improving the representation of clouds, ocean eddies, the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, and ozone on the projected Arctic winter warming in a coordinated experiment set. These improvements all lead to enhanced projected Arctic warming, with the largest changes found in the sea-ice retreat regions and the largest uncertainty on the Atlantic side.

We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to compute the future rise in global mean surface temperature (GMST) for radiative forcing (RF) due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) and tropospheric aerosols, provided by the IPCC AR5 and AR6 reports. We show that the AR6 updates to RF lead to a 0.2 to 0.4 °C rise in GMST at the end of this century, for the same underlying Shared Socioeconomic Pathway emissions projections of GHGs and aerosols, relative to GMST found using RF from AR5.

A computationally inexpensive climate model analog method yields skillful climate predictions across timescales, from seasons to multiple years, complementing existing climate prediction systems and potentially providing valuable information for sectors like agriculture and energy.

This study explores the climate impact of reduced Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets using the Late Pliocene as an analogue for future climate. Results reveal a 9.5 °C rise in Antarctic surface temperature, 16 % sea ice loss, and increased precipitation. The simulations highlight weakened Antarctic Bottom Water formation and Southern Annular Mode persistence. By isolating albedo effects, this research provides insights into global climate dynamics and feedbacks.

Dynamic climate change metrics are more robust to get strong sustainable designs. This work aims to support adoption of such metrics by environmental assessment communities thanks to a: 1. clear and pedagogical presentation of up-to-date climate equations, climate parameters and associated uncertainties, 2. open-source assessment tool release, 3. dynamic metrics interpretation support. Adoption of new characterisation factors for temperature change metrics are recommended in future IPCC report.

In this context, our study uses reprocessed monthly remote sensing data as observational references to assess the long-term trends and seasonal variations of simulated data by models in China from 2003 to 2019. Our findings reveal that while the DGVMs generally capture the seasonality of LAI and GPP, there are notable discrepancies in their spatial accuracy. Specifically, our results indicate a tendency to underestimate forested areas, overestimate grasslands, and misrepresent cropland dynamics.

Using statistical methods and a set of ensemble climate models, we decompose the sources of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variance. Three distinct phases of physical variability are identified: from 1850 to 1990, internal variability dominates; from 1990 to 2050, dynamical adjustment related to AMOC decline takes over; after 2050, differences between forcing scenarios become dominant. Beyond these physical factors, model variability remains the major source of uncertainty.

Predicting sudden changes in ecosystems is a major challenge in ecology. Using a new framework called the non-equilibrium landscape and flux theory, we studied how ecosystems shift between stable states. Focusing on coral reefs, we identified early warning signals that detect critical transitions earlier than traditional methods. This approach could help predict catastrophic changes in various ecosystems, offering valuable insights for conservation efforts.

We add a new dynamic component – an ice sheet model simulating the Greenland ice sheet – to an Earth system model that already captures the global climate evolution including ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice. Under a strong warming scenario, the global warming of 10 °C over 250 yrs is dominating the climate evolution. Changes from the ice-climate interaction are mainly local yet impacting the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet. Hence, ice-climate feedbacks should be considered beyond 2100.

We conducted a study on the long-term effects of northern high-latitude permafrost responses and feedbacks under scenarios where temperatures either stabilize or overshoot. Our findings indicate that the additional warming due to permafrost carbon emissions is significantly greater during the cooling phase of temperature overshoot scenarios. Moreover, we discovered that the sensitivity of permafrost area to global warming is not uniform; it peaks between 1.5 °C and 2 °C.

This study highlights how the representation of the vegetation in a climate model triggers the atmospheric feedback controlling the top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. Using simulations of the mid-Holocene and the preindustrial climates, we analyse cascading effects involving local snow-vegetation interactions, as well as tropical atmospheric water content. The relative roles of bare soil evaporation, photosynthesis and critical temperature for boreal tree regeneration are discussed.

This study examines how changes in Earth's ice volume influence geomagnetic events, such as reversals and incomplete reversals, over the past 49 million years. We find that increased ice volume correlates with more frequent geomagnetic events, while rapid ice sheet melting under future warming could reduce their occurrence. These findings enhance our understanding of Earth's magnetic dynamics and their potential link to climate change.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element in the fully-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Under varying freshwater flux forcing parameters or climate change, the AMOC may collapse from a relatively strong state to a substantially weaker state. It is important to understand the dynamics of the AMOC collapse in the CESM. We show that the stability of the AMOC in the CESM is controlled by only a few feedback processes.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is sensitive to changing surface forcing conditions. Under future greenhouse gas emission reductions, it was shown in a conceptual model that it may be possible to avoid a collapse of the AMOC. Using a detailed global ocean model, we clarify the physics of the collapse and recovery behaviour of the AMOC. The potential to avoid an AMOC collapse is tightly linked to a delicate balance of salt fluxes in the northern North Atlantic.

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is being studied as a possible supplement to emission reduction to temporarily mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. The latitudes at which SAI is done determine the effect on the climate. We try to find if there are combinations of latitudes that do a better job of counteracting climate change than existing strategies. We found that there are, but just how significant these improvements are depends on the amount of cooling.

We used field empirical data worldwide to calculate plant nitrogen uptake (Nup) and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) in woodlands and grasslands and determine its drivers, which can be used as empirical validation for models. Even though some regions of the world have decreased their N deposition, N deposition is still the most important driver explaining plant nitrogen uptake, aside from climatic variables.

There is an ongoing societal discussion about speeding up the transition to net-zero carbon emissions. The faster emissions are reduced, the less carbon dioxide will accumulate in the atmosphere determining the level of global warming. In this study, we run simulations with an atmosphere model with different CO₂ forcing rates to investigate whether the pace of the emissions itself (in addition to the resulting concentration) significantly influences climate and weather.

We used eco-evolutionary optimality modelling to examine how climate and CO₂ impacted vegetation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) and the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 years ago). Low CO₂ at the LGM was as important as climate in reducing tree cover and productivity, and increasing C₄ plant abundance. Climate had positive effects on MH vegetation, but the low CO₂ was a constraint on plant growth. These results show it is important to consider changing CO₂ to model ecosystem changes.

This study examines phosphorus land-to-sea transport in Europe, exploring changes over time and predicting future trends under various scenarios. It integrates human and environmental factors, offering a comprehensive analysis. Our findings show how global warming-induced rainfall patterns affect phosphorus levels. While pollution reduction policies are helpful, population growth, land-use changes, and increased rainfall could lead to higher phosphorus levels in the future.

This article elucidates the atmosphere-ocean interaction and how large-scale climate oscillations like El Niño (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulate the structure and behaviour of the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico. Our analysis suggests 4 principal modes, which are coherent with ENSO, the NAO and the Madden-Jullian Oscillation at different frequencies. This result suggests relation between the NAO, ENSO and the Atlantic Overturning Circulation.