Observations show an increasing imbalance between how much energy the Earth absorbs from the Sun and emits back to space, leading to climate change. We evaluate how well climate models simulate both the magnitude and trend of the imbalance. We find that models capture the magnitude but underestimate the trend, which is not related to how models handle volcanic aerosols when switching to future scenarios. The models that best simulate the magnitude are the ones with moderate climate sensitivity.

We construct a mathematical model to describe the formation of lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet across multiple years. The model represents the dynamics of ice, snow, and surface water, accounting for the influence of air temperature. Our results indicate that lakes can enhance ice melt by absorbing sunlight, thereby accelerating the loss of Greenland ice under realistic scenarios of temperature increase.