This study challenges the conventional wisdom that the commitment to an Earth System tipping point occurs as soon as a critical threshold is crossed. The authors show that the number of elements that would undergo tipping is severely reduced if the duration of exceedance of the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C threshold can be kept below a century. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that all tipping elements would be avoided if global warming over 1.5 °C is restricted to 30 years and peak warming is kept below 2.5 °C. Consequently, the duration of exceedance of tipping thresholds matters.

This paper examines multi-century consequences of climate change following a simulated reversal of emissions from the SSP3-7.0 (high emissions) scenario in 2100 to net zero in 2250. It demonstrates the potential for very long-term, major committed impacts of the ongoing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

The paper is timely: there is growing interest in the development of approaches to model species distribution and the one presented in this paper is novel, simple, and efficient. The topic is of significance for a broad audience, from ecologists interested in theoretical aspects to conservationists. While the analysis has a regional scope, the approach is generalisable and may be applied elsewhere.

This paper provides novel results on solar radiation and solar energy conditions over Europe. It shows, for example, increasing trends in surface incoming solar radiation over large parts of Europe in spring/summer, and elucidates how these trends are driven by changes in cloudiness. The results provide valuable metrics for both the evaluation of climate models that have a dynamically integrated solar energy component and for long-term planning of solar-based renewable energy systems.