Articles | Volume 8, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1047-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1047-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
More homogeneous wind conditions under strong climate change decrease the potential for inter-state balancing of electricity in Europe
Forschungszentrum Jülich, Institute for Energy and Climate Research (IEK-STE), 52428 Jülich, Germany
Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Cologne, 50937 Cologne, Germany
Mark Reyers
Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
Juliane Weber
Forschungszentrum Jülich, Institute for Energy and Climate Research (IEK-STE), 52428 Jülich, Germany
Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Cologne, 50937 Cologne, Germany
Dirk Witthaut
Forschungszentrum Jülich, Institute for Energy and Climate Research (IEK-STE), 52428 Jülich, Germany
Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Cologne, 50937 Cologne, Germany
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Jan Wohland, Doris Folini, and Bryn Pickering
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1239–1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1239-2021, 2021
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Surface winds fluctuate. From around 1980 to 2010, surface onshore winds generally became weaker, and they have gained in strength since then. While these fluctuations are well known, we currently do not fully understand why they happen. To investigate the reasons, we use a large set of climate simulations with one model, a so-called large ensemble. We find that the observed long-term wind fluctuations occur naturally under current and future conditions and do not require a specific trigger.
Charlotte Neubacher, Dirk Witthaut, and Jan Wohland
Adv. Geosci., 54, 205–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-205-2021, 2021
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In our study, we investigate the variability of potential offshore wind power over Europe on time scales of more than 10 years. Detailed spectral analysis of potential offshore wind power capacities over the last century indicates a strong coupling to large climate patterns such as the NAO. Furthermore, combining the wind power potential at the German North Sea and the Portuguese Atlantic coast shows that the variability can be mitigated.
Jan Wohland, Nour Eddine Omrani, Noel Keenlyside, and Dirk Witthaut
Wind Energ. Sci., 4, 515–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-515-2019, 2019
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Wind park planning and power system design require robust wind resource information. While most assessments are restricted to the last four decades, we use centennial reanalyses to study wind energy generation variability in Germany. We find that statistically significant multi-decadal variability exists. These long-term effects must be considered when planning future highly renewable power systems. Otherwise, there is a risk of inefficient system design and ill-informed investments.
Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 593–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, 2023
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Paleoclimate proxy records show that the North Atlantic climate repeatedly transitioned between two regimes during the last glacial interval. This study investigates a bivariate proxy record from a Greenland ice core which reflects past Greenland temperatures and large-scale atmospheric conditions. We reconstruct the underlying deterministic drift by estimating first-order Kramers–Moyal coefficients and identify two separate stable states in agreement with the aforementioned climatic regimes.
Mark Reyers, Stephanie Fiedler, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph Böhm, Volker Wennrich, and Yaping Shao
Clim. Past, 19, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, 2023
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In this study we performed high-resolution climate model simulations for the hyper-arid Atacama Desert for the mid-Pliocene (3.2 Ma). The aim is to uncover the atmospheric processes that are involved in the enhancement of strong rainfall events during this period. We find that strong upper-level moisture fluxes (so-called moisture conveyor belts) originating in the tropical eastern Pacific are the main driver for increased rainfall in the mid-Pliocene.
Jan Wohland, Doris Folini, and Bryn Pickering
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1239–1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1239-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Surface winds fluctuate. From around 1980 to 2010, surface onshore winds generally became weaker, and they have gained in strength since then. While these fluctuations are well known, we currently do not fully understand why they happen. To investigate the reasons, we use a large set of climate simulations with one model, a so-called large ensemble. We find that the observed long-term wind fluctuations occur naturally under current and future conditions and do not require a specific trigger.
Charlotte Neubacher, Dirk Witthaut, and Jan Wohland
Adv. Geosci., 54, 205–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-54-205-2021, 2021
Short summary
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In our study, we investigate the variability of potential offshore wind power over Europe on time scales of more than 10 years. Detailed spectral analysis of potential offshore wind power capacities over the last century indicates a strong coupling to large climate patterns such as the NAO. Furthermore, combining the wind power potential at the German North Sea and the Portuguese Atlantic coast shows that the variability can be mitigated.
Jan Wohland, Nour Eddine Omrani, Noel Keenlyside, and Dirk Witthaut
Wind Energ. Sci., 4, 515–526, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-515-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-515-2019, 2019
Short summary
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Wind park planning and power system design require robust wind resource information. While most assessments are restricted to the last four decades, we use centennial reanalyses to study wind energy generation variability in Germany. We find that statistically significant multi-decadal variability exists. These long-term effects must be considered when planning future highly renewable power systems. Otherwise, there is a risk of inefficient system design and ill-informed investments.
Mark Reyers, Hendrik Feldmann, Sebastian Mieruch, Joaquim G. Pinto, Marianne Uhlig, Bodo Ahrens, Barbara Früh, Kameswarrao Modali, Natalie Laube, Julia Moemken, Wolfgang Müller, Gerd Schädler, and Christoph Kottmeier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 171–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, 2019
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In this study, the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system is evaluated. This system has been established to deliver highly resolved forecasts for the timescale of 1 to 10 years for Europe. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for the variables temperature, precipitation, and wind speed is provided, but the performance of the prediction system depends on region, variable, and system generation.
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Jan Wohland, Doris Folini, and Bryn Pickering
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Surface winds fluctuate. From around 1980 to 2010, surface onshore winds generally became weaker, and they have gained in strength since then. While these fluctuations are well known, we currently do not fully understand why they happen. To investigate the reasons, we use a large set of climate simulations with one model, a so-called large ensemble. We find that the observed long-term wind fluctuations occur naturally under current and future conditions and do not require a specific trigger.
Xinyuan Hou, Martin Wild, Doris Folini, Stelios Kazadzis, and Jan Wohland
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1099–1113, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1099-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1099-2021, 2021
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Solar photovoltaics (PV) matters for the carbon neutrality goal. We use climate scenarios to quantify climate risk for PV in Europe and find higher PV potential. The seasonal cycle of PV generation changes in most places. We find an increase in the spatial correlations of daily PV production, implying that PV power balancing through redistribution will be more difficult in the future. Thus, changes in the spatiotemporal structure of PV generation should be included in power system design.
F. Gans, L. M. Miller, and A. Kleidon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 79–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-79-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-79-2012, 2012
L. M. Miller, F. Gans, and A. Kleidon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 2, 201–212, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-201-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-201-2011, 2011
L. M. Miller, F. Gans, and A. Kleidon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 2, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-1-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-1-2011, 2011
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Short summary
Solar and wind energy generation are weather dependent and can not be switched on when needed. Despite this, stable electricity supply can be obtained by aggregation over large areas, for example Europe. However, we show that strong climate change impedes spatial balancing of electricity because countries are more likely to suffer from simultaneous generation shortfall. As a consequence, local scarcity can less often be balanced by imports.
Solar and wind energy generation are weather dependent and can not be switched on when needed....
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