Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-281-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-281-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Mar 2016
Research article |
| 31 Mar 2016
Late Quaternary temperature variability described as abrupt transitions on a 1/f noise background
Martin Rypdal
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tromsø The
Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
Kristoffer Rypdal
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tromsø The
Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
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Clara Hummel, Niklas Boers, and Martin Rypdal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567, 2024
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We revisit early warning signals (EWS) for past abrupt climate changes known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. Using advanced statistical methods, we find fewer significant EWS than previously reported. While some signals appear consistent across Greenland ice core records, they are not enough to identify the still unknown physical mechanisms behind DO events. This study highlights the complexity of predicting climate changes and urges caution in interpreting (paleo-)climate data.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Luc Hallali, and Martin Rypdal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-436, 2024
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Before a climate component reaches a tipping point, there may be observable changes in its statistical properties. These are known as early warning signals and include increased fluctuation and correlation times. We present a Bayesian approach to detect these signals, using a model where the correlation parameter depends linearly on time for which the slope can be estimated directly from the data. The model is then applied to Dansgaard-Oeschger events using Greenland Ice core data.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers, Martin Wibe Rypdal, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 18, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, 2022
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In layer counted proxy records each measurement is accompanied by a timestamp typically measured by counting periodic layers. Knowledge of the uncertainty of this timestamp is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses. By assuming a Bayesian regression model to the layer increments we express the dating uncertainty by the posterior distribution, from which chronologies can be sampled efficiently. We apply our framework to dating abrupt warming transitions during the last glacial.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 329–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020, 2020
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This paper presents efficient Bayesian methods for linear response models of global mean surface temperature that take into account long-range dependence. We apply the methods to the instrumental temperature record and historical model runs in the CMIP5 ensemble to provide estimates of the transient climate response and temperature projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways.
Tine Nilsen, Johannes P. Werner, Dmitry V. Divine, and Martin Rypdal
Clim. Past, 14, 947–967, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-947-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-947-2018, 2018
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The BARCAST climate field reconstruction method is tested using synthetic data experiments. It is demonstrated that the output reconstructions have altered statistical properties compared with the input data, but they are also not necessarily consistent with the model assumption of the reconstruction method. The conclusion is that the statistical properties of a reconstruction not only reflect the statistics of the real climate, but they may very well be affected by the manipulation of the data.
Kristoffer Rypdal and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 597–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-597-2016, 2016
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This comment on the paper by Lovejoy and Varotsos demonstrates that their methods for establishing nonlinearity in the global temperature response in climate models are flawed. One of their methods is based on an invalid approximation, which when corrected does not falsify the hypothesis that the response is linear. This conclusion is enforced when internal variability in the models are accounted for. The other results in their paper are also shown to be reproduced by linear-response models.
L. Østvand, T. Nilsen, K. Rypdal, D. Divine, and M. Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 295–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-295-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-295-2014, 2014
L. Østvand, K. Rypdal, and M. Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-327-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-327-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
Clara Hummel, Niklas Boers, and Martin Rypdal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567, 2024
Short summary
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We revisit early warning signals (EWS) for past abrupt climate changes known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. Using advanced statistical methods, we find fewer significant EWS than previously reported. While some signals appear consistent across Greenland ice core records, they are not enough to identify the still unknown physical mechanisms behind DO events. This study highlights the complexity of predicting climate changes and urges caution in interpreting (paleo-)climate data.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Luc Hallali, and Martin Rypdal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-436, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Before a climate component reaches a tipping point, there may be observable changes in its statistical properties. These are known as early warning signals and include increased fluctuation and correlation times. We present a Bayesian approach to detect these signals, using a model where the correlation parameter depends linearly on time for which the slope can be estimated directly from the data. The model is then applied to Dansgaard-Oeschger events using Greenland Ice core data.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers, Martin Wibe Rypdal, and Niklas Boers
Clim. Past, 18, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In layer counted proxy records each measurement is accompanied by a timestamp typically measured by counting periodic layers. Knowledge of the uncertainty of this timestamp is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses. By assuming a Bayesian regression model to the layer increments we express the dating uncertainty by the posterior distribution, from which chronologies can be sampled efficiently. We apply our framework to dating abrupt warming transitions during the last glacial.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 329–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020, 2020
Short summary
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This paper presents efficient Bayesian methods for linear response models of global mean surface temperature that take into account long-range dependence. We apply the methods to the instrumental temperature record and historical model runs in the CMIP5 ensemble to provide estimates of the transient climate response and temperature projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways.
Kristoffer Rypdal
Adv. Geosci., 45, 35–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-45-35-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-45-35-2018, 2018
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Empirical models for growth of renewable power are compared; the exponential, logistic, and power-law models. It is shown that the latter is a natural model for growth that slows down due to various constraints, yet not experiencing the effect of an upper limit defined by physical boundaries. One cannot conclude that this model is preferable based on the historical data only, but the predictions also align well with scenarios based on macroeconomic modelling that meet the two-degree target.
Tine Nilsen, Johannes P. Werner, Dmitry V. Divine, and Martin Rypdal
Clim. Past, 14, 947–967, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-947-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-947-2018, 2018
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The BARCAST climate field reconstruction method is tested using synthetic data experiments. It is demonstrated that the output reconstructions have altered statistical properties compared with the input data, but they are also not necessarily consistent with the model assumption of the reconstruction method. The conclusion is that the statistical properties of a reconstruction not only reflect the statistics of the real climate, but they may very well be affected by the manipulation of the data.
Kristoffer Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-93, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-93, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The paper examines the assertion that limits to growth in the renewable energy sector can be inferred statistically from historical data for installed capacity of solar and wind power. This claim has been made in the peer reviewed scientific literature and has been subject to considerable media coverage. It is demonstrated here that rational selection between an exponential and a logistic growth model cannot be made from existing data for the historical evolution of global installed capacity.
Kristoffer Rypdal and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 597–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-597-2016, 2016
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This comment on the paper by Lovejoy and Varotsos demonstrates that their methods for establishing nonlinearity in the global temperature response in climate models are flawed. One of their methods is based on an invalid approximation, which when corrected does not falsify the hypothesis that the response is linear. This conclusion is enforced when internal variability in the models are accounted for. The other results in their paper are also shown to be reproduced by linear-response models.
Tine Nilsen, Kristoffer Rypdal, and Hege-Beate Fredriksen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 419–439, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-419-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-419-2016, 2016
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In this article it is discussed how temperature variability on centennial timescales and longer can be described in a simplistic way. By analysing the scaling in late Holocene temperature reconstructions and longer temperature records from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores, we find that the choice of model depends heavily on the data material and timescale one chooses to emphasize. Ignoring data beyond the Holocene seems plausible when predicting temperature, but not for other purposes.
K. Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 51–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-51-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-51-2016, 2016
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A conceptual model for the global temperature response to CO2 emissions is presented. Based on observation data, projections of future warming are computed for instructive emission scenarios. Delays in the initiation of global emission reduction is found to be the most important factor driving global warming over the next 2 centuries. The model is intended as a tool for communicating the issue to non-climatologists, students, policy makers, and the general public.
K. Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 719–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-719-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-719-2015, 2015
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Human and natural forces drive climate change. If we have a model for the climate response to forcing, we can identify distinct fingerprints for each force, and their footprint in the observed global temperature can be determined by statistical analysis. This process is called attribution. This work examines the effect delays (long-range memory) in the climate response have on the magnitude of the various footprints. The magnitude of the human footprint turns out to be only weakly affected.
L. Østvand, T. Nilsen, K. Rypdal, D. Divine, and M. Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 295–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-295-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-295-2014, 2014
L. Østvand, K. Rypdal, and M. Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-327-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-327-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 879–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-879-2022, 2022
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Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Peter D. Nooteboom, Peter K. Bijl, Christian Kehl, Erik van Sebille, Martin Ziegler, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
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Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
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Jonathan F. Donges, Wolfgang Lucht, Sarah E. Cornell, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Steven J. Lade, and Maja Schlüter
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, 2021
Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1057–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, 2021
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The oceans are typically darker than land surfaces. Expanding oceans through sea-level rise may thus lead to a darker planet Earth, reflecting less sunlight. The additionally absorbed sunlight may heat planet Earth, leading to further sea-level rise. Here, we provide a rough estimate of the strength of this feedback: it turns out to be very weak, but clearly positive, thereby destabilizing the Earth system.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Charles D. Koven, Florent Brient, Ben B. B. Booth, Rosie A. Fisher, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 899–918, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, 2021
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Emergent constraints promise a pathway to the reduction in climate projection uncertainties by exploiting ensemble relationships between observable quantities and unknown climate response parameters. This study considers the robustness of these relationships in light of biases and common simplifications that may be present in the original ensemble of climate simulations. We propose a classification scheme for constraints and a number of practical case studies.
Ralf Weisse, Inga Dailidienė, Birgit Hünicke, Kimmo Kahma, Kristine Madsen, Anders Omstedt, Kevin Parnell, Tilo Schöne, Tarmo Soomere, Wenyan Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 871–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, 2021
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The study is part of the thematic Baltic Earth Assessment Reports – a series of review papers summarizing the knowledge around major Baltic Earth science topics. It concentrates on sea level dynamics and coastal erosion (its variability and change). Many of the driving processes are relevant in the Baltic Sea. Contributions vary over short distances and across timescales. Progress and research gaps are described in both understanding details in the region and in extending general concepts.
Eric D. Galbraith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 671–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-671-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-671-2021, 2021
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Scientific tradition has left a gap between the study of humans and the rest of the Earth system. Here, a holistic approach to the global human system is proposed, intended to provide seamless integration with natural sciences. At the core, this focuses on what humans are doing with their time, what the bio-physical outcomes of those activities are, and what the lived experience is. The quantitative approach can facilitate data analysis across scales and integrated human–Earth system modeling.
Shaun Lovejoy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 469–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-469-2021, 2021
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Monthly scale, seasonal-scale, and decadal-scale modeling of the atmosphere is possible using the principle of energy balance. Yet the scope of classical approaches is limited because they do not adequately deal with energy storage in the Earth system. We show that the introduction of a vertical coordinate implies that the storage has a huge memory. This memory can be used for macroweather (long-range) forecasts and climate projections.
Shaun Lovejoy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 489–511, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-489-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-489-2021, 2021
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Radiant energy is exchanged between the Earth's surface and outer space. Some of the local imbalances are stored in the subsurface, and some are transported horizontally. In Part 1 I showed how – in a horizontally homogeneous Earth – these classical approaches imply long-memory storage useful for seasonal forecasting and multidecadal projections. In this Part 2, I show how to apply these results to the heterogeneous real Earth.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, and Malte F. Stuecker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 121–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, 2021
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Changes in the Hadley and Walker cells cause major climate disruptions across our planet. What has been overlooked so far is the question of whether these two circulations can shift their positions in a synchronized manner. We here show the synchronized spatial shifts between Walker and Hadley cells and further highlight a novel aspect of how tropical sea surface temperature anomalies can couple these two circulations. The re-positioning has important implications for extratropical rainfall.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, 2021
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We demonstrate here that a single physical phenomenon, specifically, a naturally changing balance between intensities of temperature advection and diffusion in the viscous ice media, may influence the entire spectrum of the Pleistocene variability from orbital to millennial timescales.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1195–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, 2020
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With the development of computer capacities, simpler models like energy balance models have not disappeared, and a stronger emphasis has been given to the concept of a hierarchy of models. The global temperature is calculated by the radiation budget through the incoming energy from the Sun and the outgoing energy from the Earth. The argument that the temperature can be calculated by a simple radiation budget is revisited, and it is found that the effective heat capacity matters.
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 721–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, 2020
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Here, we assess the degree to which the idealized responses to transient forcing increase and step change forcing increase relate to warming under future scenarios. We find a possible explanation for the poor performance of transient metrics (relative to equilibrium response) as a metric of high-emission future warming in terms of their sensitivity to non-equilibrated initial conditions, and propose alternative metrics which better describe warming under high mitigation scenarios.
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 563–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020, 2020
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Levels of future temperature change are often used interchangeably with carbon budget allowances in climate policy, a relatively robust relationship on the timescale of this century. However, recent advances in understanding underline that continued warming after net-zero emissions have been achieved cannot be ruled out by observations of warming to date. We consider here how such behavior could be constrained and how policy can be framed in the context of these uncertainties.
Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Marc Wiedermann, Johannes A. Kassel, Tim Kittel, Jakob J. Kolb, Till Kolster, Finn Müller-Hansen, Ilona M. Otto, Kilian B. Zimmerer, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 395–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, 2020
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We present an open-source software framework for developing so-called
world–Earth modelsthat link physical, chemical and biological processes with social, economic and cultural processes to study the Earth system's future trajectories in the Anthropocene. Due to its modular structure, the software allows interdisciplinary studies of global change and sustainable development that combine stylized model components from Earth system science, climatology, economics, ecology and sociology.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 281–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, 2020
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Using the central theorem of dimensional analysis, the π theorem, we show that the relationship between the amplitude and duration of glacial cycles is governed by a property of scale invariance that does not depend on the physical nature of the underlying positive and negative feedbacks incorporated by the system. It thus turns out to be one of the most fundamental properties of the Pleistocene climate.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, 2020
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The ever-growing availability of data streams on different subsystems of the Earth brings unprecedented scientific opportunities. However, researching a data-rich world brings novel challenges. We present the concept of
Earth system data cubesto study the complex dynamics of multiple climate and ecosystem variables across space and time. Using a series of example studies, we highlight the potential of effectively considering the full multivariate nature of processes in the Earth system.
Christine Ramadhin and Chuixiang Yi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 13–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020, 2020
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Here we explore ancient climate transitions from warm periods to ice ages and from ice ages to warm periods of the last 400 000 years. The changeovers from warm to ice age conditions are slower than those from ice age to warm conditions. We propose the presence of strong negative sea–ice feedbacks may be responsible for slowing the transition from warm to full ice age conditions. By improving understanding of past abrupt changes, we may have improved knowledge of future system behavior.
M. Levent Kavvas, Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and James Polsinelli
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1-2020, 2020
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After deriving a fractional continuity equation, a previously-developed equation for water flux in porous media was combined with the Dupuit approximation to obtain an equation for groundwater motion in multi-fractional space in unconfined aquifers. As demonstrated in the numerical application, the orders of the fractional space and time derivatives modulate the speed of groundwater table evolution, slowing the process with the decrease in the powers of the fractional derivatives from 1.
Krishna-Pillai Sukumara-Pillai Krishnamohan, Govindasamy Bala, Long Cao, Lei Duan, and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 885–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-885-2019, 2019
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We find that sulfate aerosols are more effective in cooling the climate system when they reside higher in the stratosphere. We explain this sensitivity in terms of radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. Sulfate aerosols heat the stratospheric layers, causing an increase in stratospheric water vapor content and a reduction in high clouds. These changes are larger when aerosols are prescribed near the tropopause, offsetting part of the aerosol-induced negative radiative forcing/cooling.
Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Gabriele Messori, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, 2019
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We show how the complex dynamics of the jet stream at midlatitude can be described by a simple mathematical model. We match the properties of the model to those obtained by the jet data derived from observations.
Stefanie Talento, Lea Schneider, Johannes Werner, and Jürg Luterbacher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 347–364, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-347-2019, 2019
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Quantifying hydroclimate variability beyond the instrumental period is essential for putting fluctuations into long-term perspective and providing a validation for climate models. We evaluate, in a virtual setup, the potential for generating millennium-long summer precipitation reconstructions over south-eastern Asia.
We find that performing a real-world reconstruction with the current available proxy network is indeed feasible, as virtual-world reconstructions are skilful in most areas.
Lennert B. Stap, Peter Köhler, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, 2019
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Processes causing the same global-average radiative forcing might lead to different global temperature changes. We expand the theoretical framework by which we calculate paleoclimate sensitivity with an efficacy factor. Applying the revised approach to radiative forcing caused by CO2 and land ice albedo perturbations, inferred from data of the past 800 000 years, gives a new paleo-based estimate of climate sensitivity.
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Raquel Nieto, Marta Vázquez, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 121–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-121-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-121-2019, 2019
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Ice melting at the scale of inter-annual fluctuations against the trend is favoured by an increase in moisture transport in summer, autumn, and winter and a decrease in spring. On a daily basis extreme humidity transport increases the formation of ice in winter and decreases it in spring, summer, and autumn; in these three seasons it thus contributes to Arctic sea ice melting. These patterns differ sharply from that linked to decline, especially in summer when the opposite trend applies.
Iago Algarra, Jorge Eiras-Barca, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Raquel Nieto, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 107–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-107-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-107-2019, 2019
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We analyse moisture transport triggered by the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ), a maximum in wind speed fields located within the first kilometre of the US Great Plain's troposphere, through the innovative Eulerian Weather Research and Forecasting Model tracer tool. Much moisture associated with this low-level jet has been found in northern regions located in a vast extension of the continent, highlighting the key role played by the GPLLJ in North America's advective transport of moisture.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, 2018
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Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity.
Mark M. Dekker, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1243–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, 2018
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We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one system affects the background conditions of another system. Using bifurcation theory, various types of these events are considered and early warning indicators are suggested. An illustration of such an event is found in a conceptual model, coupling the North Atlantic Ocean with the equatorial Pacific. This demonstrates the possibility of events such as this in nature.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, Guido Cioni, Martin Claussen, Klaus Fraedrich, Marvin Heidkamp, Cathy Hohenegger, Diego Jimenez de la Cuesta, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Alexander Lemburg, Thorsten Mauritsen, Katharina Meraner, Niklas Röber, Hauke Schmidt, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, Alexander Winkler, Xiuhua Zhu, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1191–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, 2018
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Model experiments show that changing the sense of Earth's rotation has relatively little impact on the globally and zonally averaged energy budgets but leads to large shifts in continental climates and patterns of precipitation. The retrograde world is greener as the desert area shrinks. Deep water formation shifts from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific with subsequent changes in ocean overturning. Over large areas of the Indian Ocean, cyanobacteria dominate over bulk phytoplankton.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1127–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, 2018
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Turbulent fluxes represent an efficient way to transport heat and moisture from the surface into the atmosphere. Due to their inherently highly complex nature, they are commonly described by semiempirical relationships. What we show here is that these fluxes can also be predicted by viewing them as the outcome of a heat engine that operates between the warm surface and the cooler atmosphere and that works at its limit.
Marc Schleiss
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-955-2018, 2018
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The present study aims at explaining how intermittency (i.e., the alternation of dry and rainy periods) affects the rate at which precipitation extremes increase with temperature. Using high-resolution rainfall data from 99 stations in the United States, we show that at scales beyond a few hours, intermittency causes rainfall extremes to deviate substantially from Clausius–Clapeyron. A new model is proposed to better represent and predict these changes across scales.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje Berntsen, Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 879–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, 2018
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A key question in climate science is how the global mean surface temperature responds to changes in greenhouse gases. This dependency is quantified by the climate sensitivity, which is determined by the complex feedbacks in the climate system. In this study observations of past climate change are used to estimate this sensitivity. Our estimate is consistent with values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by complex climate models but sensitive to the use of uncertain input data.
Dieter Gerten, Martin Schönfeld, and Bernhard Schauberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 849–863, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-849-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-849-2018, 2018
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Cultural processes are underrepresented in Earth system models, although they decisively shape humanity’s planetary imprint. We set forth ideas on how Earth system analysis can be enriched by formalising aspects of religion (understood broadly as a collective belief in things held sacred). We sketch possible modelling avenues (extensions of existing Earth system models and new co-evolutionary models) and suggest research primers to explicate and quantify mental aspects of the Anthropocene.
Stefan Lange
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 627–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-627-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-627-2018, 2018
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The bias correction of surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation using parametric quantile mapping methods is shown to be more effective (i) at the daily than at the monthly timescale, (ii) if the spatial resolution gap between the reference data and the data to be corrected is bridged in a more suitable manner than by bilinear interpolation, and (iii) if physical upper limits are taken into account during the adjustment of either radiation component.
Camilla Mathison, Chetan Deva, Pete Falloon, and Andrew J. Challinor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 563–592, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-563-2018, 2018
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Sowing and harvest dates are a significant source of uncertainty within crop models. South Asia is one region with a large uncertainty. We aim to provide more accurate sowing and harvest dates than currently available and that are relevant for climate impact assessments. This method reproduces the present day sowing and harvest dates for most parts of India and when applied to two future periods provides a useful way of modelling potential growing season adaptations to changes in future climate.
Dario A. Zappalà, Marcelo Barreiro, and Cristina Masoller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 383–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-383-2018, 2018
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The dynamics of our climate involves multiple timescales, and while a lot of work has been devoted to quantifying variations in time-averaged variables or variations in their seasonal cycles, variations in daily variability that occur over several decades still remain poorly understood. Here we analyse daily surface air temperature and demonstrate that inter-decadal changes can be precisely identified and quantified with the Hilbert analysis tool.
Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 15–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, 2018
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The Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method applies statistical information to systematically select, transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the Earth system state. We show that due to changing climate forcing, such as anthropogenic climate change, the ad hoc assessment indicators might need to be reevaluated. Within an iterative process, this method would allow us to select scientifically consistent and societally relevant assessment indicators.
Liga Bethere, Juris Sennikovs, and Uldis Bethers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 951–962, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-951-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-951-2017, 2017
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We define three new climate indices based on monthly mean temperature and total precipitation values that describe the main features of the climate in the Baltic states. Higher values in each index correspond to (1) less distinct seasonality and (2) warmer and (3) wetter climate. It was calculated that in the future all three indices will increase. Such indices summarize and illustrate the spatial features of the Baltic climate, and they can be used in further analysis of climate change impact.
Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and M. Levent Kavvas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 931–949, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-931-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-931-2017, 2017
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Groundwater level fluctuations in confined aquifer wells with long observations exhibit site-specific fractal scaling behavior, and the underlying distribution exhibits either non-Gaussian characteristics, which may be fitted by the Lévy stable distribution, or Gaussian characteristics. The estimated Hurst exponent is highly dependent on the length and the specific time interval of the time series. The MF-DFA and MMA analyses showed that different levels of multifractality exist.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 849–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, 2017
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We provide an explanation why land temperatures respond more strongly to global warming than ocean temperatures, a robust finding in observations and models that has so far not been understood well. We explain it by the different ways by which ocean and land surfaces buffer the strong variation in solar radiation and demonstrate this with a simple, physically based model. Our explanation also illustrates why nighttime temperatures warm more strongly, another robust finding of global warming.
Milan Flach, Fabian Gans, Alexander Brenning, Joachim Denzler, Markus Reichstein, Erik Rodner, Sebastian Bathiany, Paul Bodesheim, Yanira Guanche, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 677–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, 2017
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Anomalies and extremes are often detected using univariate peak-over-threshold approaches in the geoscience community. The Earth system is highly multivariate. We compare eight multivariate anomaly detection algorithms and combinations of data preprocessing. We identify three anomaly detection algorithms that outperform univariate extreme event detection approaches. The workflows have the potential to reveal novelties in data. Remarks on their application to real Earth observations are provided.
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Short summary
We analyse scaling in temperature signals for the late quaternary climate, and focus on the effects of regime shifting events such as the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles and the shifts between glacial and interglacial conditions. When these events are omitted from a scaling description the climate noise is consistent with a 1/f law on timescales from months to 105 years. If the events are included in the description, we obtain a model that is inherently non-stationary.
We analyse scaling in temperature signals for the late quaternary climate, and focus on the...
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