Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-525-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-525-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Aug 2015
Research article |
| 31 Aug 2015
Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
R. P. Allan
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
W. J. Collins
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
J. S. Fuglestvedt
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo, Oslo, Norway
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Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
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Ryan S. Williams, Michaela I. Hegglin, Patrick Jöckel, Hella Garny, and Keith P. Shine
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Lee de Mora, Ranjini Swaminathan, Richard P. Allan, Jerry C. Blackford, Douglas I. Kelley, Phil Harris, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Spencer Liddicoat, Robert J. Parker, Tristan Quaife, Jeremy Walton, and Andrew Yool
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Nicola J. Warwick, Alex T. Archibald, Paul T. Griffiths, James Keeble, Fiona M. O'Connor, John A. Pyle, and Keith P. Shine
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13451–13467, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13451-2023, 2023
Short summary
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A chemistry–climate model has been used to explore the atmospheric response to changes in emissions of hydrogen and other species associated with a shift from fossil fuel to hydrogen use. Leakage of hydrogen results in indirect global warming, offsetting greenhouse gas emission reductions from reduced fossil fuel use. To maximise the benefit of hydrogen as an energy source, hydrogen leakage and emissions of methane, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides should be minimised.
Feijia Yin, Volker Grewe, Federica Castino, Pratik Rao, Sigrun Matthes, Katrin Dahlmann, Simone Dietmüller, Christine Frömming, Hiroshi Yamashita, Patrick Peter, Emma Klingaman, Keith P. Shine, Benjamin Lührs, and Florian Linke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3313–3334, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3313-2023, 2023
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This paper describes a newly developed submodel ACCF V1.0 based on the MESSy 2.53.0 infrastructure. The ACCF V1.0 is based on the prototype algorithmic climate change functions (aCCFs) v1.0 to enable climate-optimized flight trajectories. One highlight of this paper is that we describe a consistent full set of aCCFs formulas with respect to fuel scenario and metrics. We demonstrate the usage of the ACCF submodel using AirTraf V2.0 to optimize trajectories for cost and climate impact.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
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Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
David S. Stevenson, Richard G. Derwent, Oliver Wild, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14243–14252, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14243-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric methane’s growth rate rose by 50 % in 2020 relative to 2019. Lower nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions tend to increase methane’s atmospheric residence time; lower carbon monoxide (CO) and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions decrease its lifetime. Combining model sensitivities with emission changes, we find that COVID-19 lockdown emission reductions can explain over half the observed increases in methane in 2020.
Gerard van der Schrier, Richard P. Allan, Albert Ossó, Pedro M. Sousa, Hans Van de Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Roberto Coscarelli, Angela A. Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, Mary Curley, Mirosław Mietus, Janusz Filipiak, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, Ricardo Trigo, and Enric Aguilar
Clim. Past, 17, 2201–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, 2021
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Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
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We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
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We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
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This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Simone Tilmes, Guang Zeng, Lee T. Murray, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Sungbo Shim, Larry W. Horowitz, Lori T. Sentman, and Louisa Emmons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12905–12920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, 2020
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We present historical trends in atmospheric oxidizing capacity (OC) since 1850 from the latest generation of global climate models and compare these with estimates from measurements. OC controls levels of many key reactive gases, including methane (CH4). We find small model trends up to 1980, then increases of about 9 % up to 2014, disagreeing with (uncertain) measurement-based trends. Major drivers of OC trends are emissions of CH4, NOx, and CO; these will be important for future CH4 trends.
Robert J. Allen, Steven Turnock, Pierre Nabat, David Neubauer, Ulrike Lohmann, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Martine Michou, Tongwen Wu, Jie Zhang, Toshihiko Takemura, Michael Schulz, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E. Bauer, Louisa Emmons, Larry Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Twan van Noije, Tommi Bergman, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Prodromos Zanis, Ina Tegen, Daniel M. Westervelt, Philippe Le Sager, Peter Good, Sungbo Shim, Fiona O'Connor, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Makoto Deushi, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G. John, Shinichiro Fujimori, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9641–9663, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020, 2020
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
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The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Nicolas Bellouin, Will Davies, Keith P. Shine, Johannes Quaas, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, Guy Brasseur, Natalia Sudarchikova, Idir Bouarar, Olivier Boucher, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1649–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, 2020
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Quantifying the imbalance in the Earth's energy budget caused by human activities is important to understand and predict climate changes. This study presents new estimates of the imbalance caused by changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, and particles of pollution. Over the period 2003–2017, the overall imbalance has been positive, indicating that the climate system has gained energy and will warm further.
Jonathan Elsey, Marc D. Coleman, Tom D. Gardiner, Kaah P. Menang, and Keith P. Shine
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 2335–2361, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-2335-2020, 2020
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Water vapour is an important component in trying to understand the flows of energy between the Sun and Earth, since it is opaque to radiation emitted by both the surface and the Sun. In this paper, we study how it absorbs sunlight by way of its
continuum, a property which is poorly understood and with few measurements. Our results indicate that this continuum absorption may be more significant than previously thought, potentially impacting satellite observations and climate studies.
Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Kari Alterskjær, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Piers M. Forster, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas B. Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Keith P. Shine, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12887–12899, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, 2019
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Different greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2) and aerosols (e.g. black carbon) impact the Earth’s water cycle differently. Here we investigate how various gases and particles impact atmospheric water vapour and its lifetime, i.e., the average number of days that water vapour stays in the atmosphere after evaporation and before precipitation. We find that this lifetime could increase substantially by the end of this century, indicating that important changes in precipitation patterns are excepted.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
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Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Arlene M. Fiore, Emily V. Fischer, George P. Milly, Shubha Pandey Deolal, Oliver Wild, Daniel A. Jaffe, Johannes Staehelin, Olivia E. Clifton, Dan Bergmann, William Collins, Frank Dentener, Ruth M. Doherty, Bryan N. Duncan, Bernd Fischer, Stefan Gilge, Peter G. Hess, Larry W. Horowitz, Alexandru Lupu, Ian A. MacKenzie, Rokjin Park, Ludwig Ries, Michael G. Sanderson, Martin G. Schultz, Drew T. Shindell, Martin Steinbacher, David S. Stevenson, Sophie Szopa, Christoph Zellweger, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15345–15361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15345-2018, 2018
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We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach for applying northern midlatitude mountaintop peroxy acetyl nitrate (PAN) measurements and a multi-model ensemble during April to constrain the influence of continental-scale anthropogenic precursor emissions on PAN. Our findings imply a role for carefully coordinated multi-model ensembles in helping identify observations for discriminating among widely varying (and poorly constrained) model responses of atmospheric constituents to changes in emissions.
Stephen Blenkinsop, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero, Steven C. Chan, Selma B. Guerreiro, Elizabeth Kendon, Geert Lenderink, Elizabeth Lewis, Xiao-Feng Li, Seth Westra, Lisa Alexander, Richard P. Allan, Peter Berg, Robert J. H. Dunn, Marie Ekström, Jason P. Evans, Greg Holland, Richard Jones, Erik Kjellström, Albert Klein-Tank, Dennis Lettenmaier, Vimal Mishra, Andreas F. Prein, Justin Sheffield, and Mari R. Tye
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 117–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-117-2018, 2018
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Measurements of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) rainfall totals are essential if we are to understand short, intense bursts of rainfall that cause flash floods. We might expect the intensity of such events to increase in a warming climate but these are poorly realised in projections of future climate change. The INTENSE project is collating a global dataset of hourly rainfall measurements and linking with new developments in climate models to understand the characteristics and causes of these events.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Keith P. Shine, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10795–10809, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10795-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-10795-2017, 2017
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The climate impacts for emissions of different pollutants can be made comparable with weighting factors. This article estimates these weights based on temperature change for short-lived pollutants, such as methane and black carbon. Emissions from different seasons and regions are compared, for instance Europe and East Asia. The responses are calculated for four regions, where we see that the responses can be much higher in the Arctic than globally in some cases.
Chris Huntingford, Hui Yang, Anna Harper, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Eleanor J. Burke, Jason A. Lowe, Garry Hayman, William J. Collins, Stephen M. Smith, and Edward Comyn-Platt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, 2017
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Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to remain below 2 °C. The 2015 Paris meeting went further and gave an aspiration to fulfil a 1.5 °C threshold. We provide a flexible set of algebraic global temperature profiles that stabilise to either target. This will potentially allow the climate research community to estimate local climatic implications for these temperature profiles, along with emissions trajectories to fulfil them.
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Terje Berntsen, Lisa Bock, Ulrike Burkhardt, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, and Keith P. Shine
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 547–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-547-2017, 2017
Thomas Gasser, Glen P. Peters, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, William J. Collins, Drew T. Shindell, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 235–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-235-2017, 2017
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Emission metrics such as GWP or GTP are used to put non-CO2 species on a
CO2-equivalentscale. In the fifth IPCC report the metrics are inconsistent, as the climate–carbon feedback is included only for CO2 but not for non-CO2 species. Here, we simulate a new impulse response function for the feedback, and we use it to correct the metrics. For instance, 1 g of CH4 is equivalent to 31 g of CO2 (instead of 28 g) following the corrected GWP100 metric. It is 34 g if other factors are also updated.
Gunnar Myhre, Wenche Aas, Ribu Cherian, William Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Zbigniew Klimont, Marianne T. Lund, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Dirk Olivié, Michael Prather, Johannes Quaas, Bjørn H. Samset, Jordan L. Schnell, Michael Schulz, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Svetlana Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017
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Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
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We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Christopher P. Webber, Helen F. Dacre, William J. Collins, and Giacomo Masato
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 867–881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-867-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-867-2017, 2017
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The influence of synoptic meteorology on UK PM10 concentration ([PM110]) is analysed. ERA-Interim reanalysis data are used to detect upper-tropospheric wave breaking that explains much of the UK winter synoptic meteorological variability. Wave breaking is shown to positively impact UK [PM10], with a persistent Ω block feature resulting in the greatest probability of exceeding a hazardous UK [PM10]. The meteorological dynamics of UK PM10 exceedances are better understood following this study.
Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Stig Dalsoren, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Irene Cionni, Ruth M. Doherty, Veronika Eyring, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David Plummer, Mattia Righi, David S. Stevenson, Sarah Strode, Sophie Szopa, and Guang Zengast
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9847–9862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016, 2016
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Using ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models for the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, we quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to 2000 concentrations. We also estimate the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period.
Matthew Kasoar, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, Nicolas Bellouin, William J. Collins, Greg Faluvegi, and Kostas Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9785–9804, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9785-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9785-2016, 2016
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Computer models are our primary tool to investigate how fossil-fuel emissions are affecting the climate. Here, we used three different climate models to see how they simulate the response to removing sulfur dioxide emissions from China. We found that the models disagreed substantially on how large the climate effect is from the emissions in this region. This range of outcomes is concerning if scientists or policy makers have to rely on any one model when performing their own studies.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Keith P. Shine, and Nicolas Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7451–7468, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7451-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7451-2016, 2016
A. Stohl, B. Aamaas, M. Amann, L. H. Baker, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, R. Cherian, W. Collins, N. Daskalakis, M. Dusinska, S. Eckhardt, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. Harju, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Hao, U. Im, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Maas, C. R. MacIntosh, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, D. Olivié, J. Quaas, B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, K. P. Shine, R. B. Skeie, S. Wang, K. E. Yttri, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529–10566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, 2015
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This paper presents a summary of the findings of the ECLIPSE EU project. The project has investigated the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (especially methane, ozone, aerosols) and has designed a global mitigation strategy that maximizes co-benefits between air quality and climate policy. Transient climate model simulations allowed quantifying the impacts on temperature (e.g., reduction in global warming by 0.22K for the decade 2041-2050) and precipitation.
E. A. Irvine and K. P. Shine
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 555–568, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-555-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-555-2015, 2015
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Aviation impacts on climate via contrails, which are often clearly visible in the sky. Contrail formation requires particular cold/moist atmospheric conditions at aircraft cruise altitudes. Climate change is expected to change these conditions. Using simulations from several climate models we conclude that, by 2100, the probability of contrail formation could decrease from 11 to 7%, mostly due to changing conditions in the tropics. There is no consensus on the likely change in mid-latitudes.
S. Eckhardt, B. Quennehen, D. J. L. Olivié, T. K. Berntsen, R. Cherian, J. H. Christensen, W. Collins, S. Crepinsek, N. Daskalakis, M. Flanner, A. Herber, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, L. Huang, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, J. Langner, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Mahmood, A. Massling, S. Myriokefalitakis, I. E. Nielsen, J. K. Nøjgaard, J. Quaas, P. K. Quinn, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, S. Sharma, R. B. Skeie, H. Skov, T. Uttal, K. von Salzen, and A. Stohl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9413–9433, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9413-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9413-2015, 2015
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The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from different updated models and emissions against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set. We find that the models improved but still struggle to get the maximum concentrations.
L. H. Baker, W. J. Collins, D. J. L. Olivié, R. Cherian, Ø. Hodnebrog, G. Myhre, and J. Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8201–8216, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8201-2015, 2015
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We investigate the impact of removing land-based anthropogenic emissions of three aerosol species, using four fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Removing SO2 emissions leads to warming globally, strongest in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and an increase in NH precipitation. Organic and black carbon (OC, BC) have a weaker impact, and less certainty on the response; OC (BC) removal shows a weak overall warming (cooling), and both show small increases in precipitation globally.
C. R. MacIntosh, K. P. Shine, and W. J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3957–3969, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3957-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3957-2015, 2015
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This study examines quantitatively the impact of methodological choices, in particular of averaging of multi-model ensembles, on climate metrics for ozone precursors.
Estimates of the standard deviation of radiative forcing (RF), global warming and temperature potential (GWP, GTP) from ensemble-mean input fields generally overestimate the true value.
The multi-model average fields are appropriate for calculating mean metrics, but are not a reliable method for calculating the uncertainty.
V. Grewe, C. Frömming, S. Matthes, S. Brinkop, M. Ponater, S. Dietmüller, P. Jöckel, H. Garny, E. Tsati, K. Dahlmann, O. A. Søvde, J. Fuglestvedt, T. K. Berntsen, K. P. Shine, E. A. Irvine, T. Champougny, and P. Hullah
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 175–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-175-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-175-2014, 2014
F. M. O'Connor, C. E. Johnson, O. Morgenstern, N. L. Abraham, P. Braesicke, M. Dalvi, G. A. Folberth, M. G. Sanderson, P. J. Telford, A. Voulgarakis, P. J. Young, G. Zeng, W. J. Collins, and J. A. Pyle
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 41–91, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014, 2014
B. Aamaas, G. P. Peters, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 145–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-145-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-145-2013, 2013
M. M. Fry, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Z. Adelman, V. Naik, W. J. Collins, and J. J. West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5381–5399, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5381-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5381-2013, 2013
V. Naik, A. Voulgarakis, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lin, M. J. Prather, P. J. Young, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, T. P. C. van Noije, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013
M. S. Eide, S. B. Dalsøren, Ø. Endresen, B. Samset, G. Myhre, J. Fuglestvedt, and T. Berntsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4183–4201, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4183-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4183-2013, 2013
K. W. Bowman, D. T. Shindell, H. M. Worden, J.F. Lamarque, P. J. Young, D. S. Stevenson, Z. Qu, M. de la Torre, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. B. Dalsøren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. M. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. A. Plummer, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, G. Zeng, S. S. Kulawik, A. M. Aghedo, and J. R. Worden
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4057–4072, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4057-2013, 2013
D. T. Shindell, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Schulz, M. Flanner, C. Jiao, M. Chin, P. J. Young, Y. H. Lee, L. Rotstayn, N. Mahowald, G. Milly, G. Faluvegi, Y. Balkanski, W. J. Collins, A. J. Conley, S. Dalsoren, R. Easter, S. Ghan, L. Horowitz, X. Liu, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, T. Takemura, A. Voulgarakis, J.-H. Yoon, and F. Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2939–2974, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, 2013
D. S. Stevenson, P. J. Young, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, A. Voulgarakis, R. B. Skeie, S. B. Dalsoren, G. Myhre, T. K. Berntsen, G. A. Folberth, S. T. Rumbold, W. J. Collins, I. A. MacKenzie, R. M. Doherty, G. Zeng, T. P. C. van Noije, A. Strunk, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, D. A. Plummer, S. A. Strode, L. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, S. Szopa, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, B. Josse, I. Cionni, M. Righi, V. Eyring, A. Conley, K. W. Bowman, O. Wild, and A. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063–3085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
Y. H. Lee, J.-F. Lamarque, M. G. Flanner, C. Jiao, D. T. Shindell, T. Berntsen, M. M. Bisiaux, J. Cao, W. J. Collins, M. Curran, R. Edwards, G. Faluvegi, S. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, J. R. McConnell, J. Ming, G. Myhre, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, K. Sudo, T. Takemura, F. Thevenon, B. Xu, and J.-H. Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2607–2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2607-2013, 2013
W. J. Collins, M. M. Fry, H. Yu, J. S. Fuglestvedt, D. T. Shindell, and J. J. West
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2471–2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2471-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
P. J. Young, A. T. Archibald, K. W. Bowman, J.-F. Lamarque, V. Naik, D. S. Stevenson, S. Tilmes, A. Voulgarakis, O. Wild, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013
S. B. Dalsøren, B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, J. J. Corbett, R. Minjares, D. Lack, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1941–1955, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1941-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1941-2013, 2013
J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, B. Josse, P. J. Young, I. Cionni, V. Eyring, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, R. Doherty, S. Dalsoren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, S. J. Ghan, L. W. Horowitz, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, D. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, M. Schulz, R. B. Skeie, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, A. Voulgarakis, and G. Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013
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Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops
ESD Ideas: A weak positive feedback between sea level and the planetary albedo
The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints
Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region
Earth system economics: a biophysical approach to the human component of the Earth system
The half-order energy balance equation – Part 1: The homogeneous HEBE and long memories
The half-order energy balance equation – Part 2: The inhomogeneous HEBE and 2D energy balance models
A dynamical systems characterization of atmospheric jet regimes
Synchronized spatial shifts of Hadley and Walker circulations
ESD Ideas: The Peclet number is a cornerstone of the orbital and millennial Pleistocene variability
Temperatures from energy balance models: the effective heat capacity matters
Relating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertainty
The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations
Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework
π-theorem generalization of the ice-age theory
Earth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics
ESD Ideas: Why are glaciations slower than deglaciations?
Fractional governing equations of transient groundwater flow in unconfined aquifers with multi-fractional dimensions in fractional time
Climate system response to stratospheric sulfate aerosols: sensitivity to altitude of aerosol layer
Minimal dynamical systems model of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data
Millennium-length precipitation reconstruction over south-eastern Asia: a pseudo-proxy approach
Including the efficacy of land ice changes in deriving climate sensitivity from paleodata
The role of moisture transport for precipitation in the inter-annual and inter-daily fluctuations of the Arctic sea ice extension
On the assessment of the moisture transport by the Great Plains low-level jet
ESD Ideas: The stochastic climate model shows that underestimated Holocene trends and variability represent two sides of the same coin
Cascading transitions in the climate system
The climate of a retrograde rotating Earth
Diurnal land surface energy balance partitioning estimated from the thermodynamic limit of a cold heat engine
How intermittency affects the rate at which rainfall extremes respond to changes in temperature
Climate sensitivity estimates – sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data
On deeper human dimensions in Earth system analysis and modelling
Bias correction of surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation for the EWEMBI dataset
Estimating sowing and harvest dates based on the Asian summer monsoon
Quantifying changes in spatial patterns of surface air temperature dynamics over several decades
Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) – a bottom–up, science-led approach to identifying indicators
Climate indices for the Baltic states from principal component analysis
Fractal scaling analysis of groundwater dynamics in confined aquifers
An explanation for the different climate sensitivities of land and ocean surfaces based on the diurnal cycle
Multivariate anomaly detection for Earth observations: a comparison of algorithms and feature extraction techniques
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Hassan Alkhayuon, Peter M. Cox, and Sebastian Wieczorek
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 669–683, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023, 2023
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Complex systems can undergo abrupt changes or tipping points when external forcing crosses a critical level and are of increasing concern because of their severe impacts. However, tipping points can also occur when the external forcing changes too quickly without crossing any critical levels, which is very relevant for Earth’s systems and contemporary climate. We give an intuitive explanation of such rate-induced tipping and provide illustrative examples from natural and human systems.
Georg Feulner, Mona Bukenberger, and Stefan Petri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 533–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-533-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-533-2023, 2023
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One limit of planetary habitability is defined by the threshold of global glaciation. If Earth cools, growing ice cover makes it brighter, leading to further cooling, since more sunlight is reflected, eventually leading to global ice cover (Snowball Earth). We study how much carbon dioxide is needed to prevent global glaciation in Earth's history given the slow increase in the Sun's brightness. We find an unexpected change in the characteristics of climate states close to the Snowball limit.
Gaëlle Leloup and Didier Paillard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 291–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-291-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-291-2023, 2023
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Records of past carbon isotopes exhibit oscillations. It is clear over very different time periods that oscillations of 400 kyr take place. Also, strong oscillations of approximately 8–9 Myr are seen over different time periods. While earlier modelling studies have been able to produce 400 kyr oscillations, none of them produced 8–9 Myr cycles. Here, we propose a simple model for the carbon cycle that is able to produce 8–9 Myr oscillations in the modelled carbon isotopes.
Taylor Smith, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Wouter Dorigo, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 173–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, 2023
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Multi-instrument records with varying signal-to-noise ratios are becoming increasingly common as legacy sensors are upgraded, and data sets are modernized. Induced changes in higher-order statistics such as the autocorrelation and variance are not always well captured by cross-calibration schemes. Here we investigate using synthetic examples how strong resulting biases can be and how they can be avoided in order to make reliable statements about changes in the resilience of a system.
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
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The ExtremeX experiment was designed to unravel the contribution of processes leading to the occurrence of recent weather and climate extremes. Global climate simulations are carried out with three models. The results show that in constrained experiments, temperature anomalies during heatwaves are well represented, although climatological model biases remain. Further, a substantial contribution of both atmospheric circulation and soil moisture to heat extremes is identified.
Oliver López-Corona, Melanie Kolb, Elvia Ramírez-Carrillo, and Jon Lovett
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1145–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1145-2022, 2022
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Climate change, the loss of biodiversity and land-use change, among others, have been recognized as main human perturbations to Earth system dynamics, the so-called planetary boundaries. Effort has been made to understand how to define a safe operating space for humanity (accepted levels of these perturbations). In this work we address the problem by assessing the Earth's capacity to respond to these perturbations, a capacity that the planet is losing.
Lizz Ultee, Sloan Coats, and Jonathan Mackay
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, 2022
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Global climate models suggest that droughts could worsen over the coming century. In mountain basins with glaciers, glacial runoff can ease droughts, but glaciers are retreating worldwide. We analyzed how one measure of drought conditions changes when accounting for glacial runoff that changes over time. Surprisingly, we found that glacial runoff can continue to buffer drought throughout the 21st century in most cases, even as the total amount of runoff declines.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 879–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-879-2022, 2022
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Reconstruction and explanation of past climate evolution using proxy records is the essence of paleoclimatology. In this study, we use dimensional analysis of a dynamical model on orbital timescales to recognize theoretical limits of such forensic inquiries. Specifically, we demonstrate that major past events could have been produced by physically dissimilar processes making the task of paleo-record attribution to a particular phenomenon fundamentally difficult if not impossible.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Peter D. Nooteboom, Peter K. Bijl, Christian Kehl, Erik van Sebille, Martin Ziegler, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 357–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, 2022
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Having descended through the water column, microplankton in ocean sediments represents the ocean surface environment and is used as an archive of past and present surface oceanographic conditions. However, this microplankton is advected by turbulent ocean currents during its sinking journey. We use simulations of sinking particles to define ocean bottom provinces and detect these provinces in datasets of sedimentary microplankton, which has implications for palaeoclimate reconstructions.
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
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A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people, society, or the environment; major events in the study area include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. In the future, an increase in sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves, and phytoplankton blooms is expected, and a decrease in cold spells and severe ice winters is anticipated.
Jonathan F. Donges, Wolfgang Lucht, Sarah E. Cornell, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Steven J. Lade, and Maja Schlüter
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, 2021
Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1057–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, 2021
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The oceans are typically darker than land surfaces. Expanding oceans through sea-level rise may thus lead to a darker planet Earth, reflecting less sunlight. The additionally absorbed sunlight may heat planet Earth, leading to further sea-level rise. Here, we provide a rough estimate of the strength of this feedback: it turns out to be very weak, but clearly positive, thereby destabilizing the Earth system.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Charles D. Koven, Florent Brient, Ben B. B. Booth, Rosie A. Fisher, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 899–918, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, 2021
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Emergent constraints promise a pathway to the reduction in climate projection uncertainties by exploiting ensemble relationships between observable quantities and unknown climate response parameters. This study considers the robustness of these relationships in light of biases and common simplifications that may be present in the original ensemble of climate simulations. We propose a classification scheme for constraints and a number of practical case studies.
Ralf Weisse, Inga Dailidienė, Birgit Hünicke, Kimmo Kahma, Kristine Madsen, Anders Omstedt, Kevin Parnell, Tilo Schöne, Tarmo Soomere, Wenyan Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 871–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, 2021
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The study is part of the thematic Baltic Earth Assessment Reports – a series of review papers summarizing the knowledge around major Baltic Earth science topics. It concentrates on sea level dynamics and coastal erosion (its variability and change). Many of the driving processes are relevant in the Baltic Sea. Contributions vary over short distances and across timescales. Progress and research gaps are described in both understanding details in the region and in extending general concepts.
Eric D. Galbraith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 671–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-671-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-671-2021, 2021
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Scientific tradition has left a gap between the study of humans and the rest of the Earth system. Here, a holistic approach to the global human system is proposed, intended to provide seamless integration with natural sciences. At the core, this focuses on what humans are doing with their time, what the bio-physical outcomes of those activities are, and what the lived experience is. The quantitative approach can facilitate data analysis across scales and integrated human–Earth system modeling.
Shaun Lovejoy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 469–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-469-2021, 2021
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Monthly scale, seasonal-scale, and decadal-scale modeling of the atmosphere is possible using the principle of energy balance. Yet the scope of classical approaches is limited because they do not adequately deal with energy storage in the Earth system. We show that the introduction of a vertical coordinate implies that the storage has a huge memory. This memory can be used for macroweather (long-range) forecasts and climate projections.
Shaun Lovejoy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 489–511, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-489-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-489-2021, 2021
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Radiant energy is exchanged between the Earth's surface and outer space. Some of the local imbalances are stored in the subsurface, and some are transported horizontally. In Part 1 I showed how – in a horizontally homogeneous Earth – these classical approaches imply long-memory storage useful for seasonal forecasting and multidecadal projections. In this Part 2, I show how to apply these results to the heterogeneous real Earth.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, and Malte F. Stuecker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 121–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, 2021
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Changes in the Hadley and Walker cells cause major climate disruptions across our planet. What has been overlooked so far is the question of whether these two circulations can shift their positions in a synchronized manner. We here show the synchronized spatial shifts between Walker and Hadley cells and further highlight a novel aspect of how tropical sea surface temperature anomalies can couple these two circulations. The re-positioning has important implications for extratropical rainfall.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, 2021
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We demonstrate here that a single physical phenomenon, specifically, a naturally changing balance between intensities of temperature advection and diffusion in the viscous ice media, may influence the entire spectrum of the Pleistocene variability from orbital to millennial timescales.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1195–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, 2020
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With the development of computer capacities, simpler models like energy balance models have not disappeared, and a stronger emphasis has been given to the concept of a hierarchy of models. The global temperature is calculated by the radiation budget through the incoming energy from the Sun and the outgoing energy from the Earth. The argument that the temperature can be calculated by a simple radiation budget is revisited, and it is found that the effective heat capacity matters.
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 721–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, 2020
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Here, we assess the degree to which the idealized responses to transient forcing increase and step change forcing increase relate to warming under future scenarios. We find a possible explanation for the poor performance of transient metrics (relative to equilibrium response) as a metric of high-emission future warming in terms of their sensitivity to non-equilibrated initial conditions, and propose alternative metrics which better describe warming under high mitigation scenarios.
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 563–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020, 2020
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Levels of future temperature change are often used interchangeably with carbon budget allowances in climate policy, a relatively robust relationship on the timescale of this century. However, recent advances in understanding underline that continued warming after net-zero emissions have been achieved cannot be ruled out by observations of warming to date. We consider here how such behavior could be constrained and how policy can be framed in the context of these uncertainties.
Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Marc Wiedermann, Johannes A. Kassel, Tim Kittel, Jakob J. Kolb, Till Kolster, Finn Müller-Hansen, Ilona M. Otto, Kilian B. Zimmerer, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 395–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, 2020
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We present an open-source software framework for developing so-called
world–Earth modelsthat link physical, chemical and biological processes with social, economic and cultural processes to study the Earth system's future trajectories in the Anthropocene. Due to its modular structure, the software allows interdisciplinary studies of global change and sustainable development that combine stylized model components from Earth system science, climatology, economics, ecology and sociology.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 281–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, 2020
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Using the central theorem of dimensional analysis, the π theorem, we show that the relationship between the amplitude and duration of glacial cycles is governed by a property of scale invariance that does not depend on the physical nature of the underlying positive and negative feedbacks incorporated by the system. It thus turns out to be one of the most fundamental properties of the Pleistocene climate.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, 2020
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The ever-growing availability of data streams on different subsystems of the Earth brings unprecedented scientific opportunities. However, researching a data-rich world brings novel challenges. We present the concept of
Earth system data cubesto study the complex dynamics of multiple climate and ecosystem variables across space and time. Using a series of example studies, we highlight the potential of effectively considering the full multivariate nature of processes in the Earth system.
Christine Ramadhin and Chuixiang Yi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 13–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020, 2020
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Here we explore ancient climate transitions from warm periods to ice ages and from ice ages to warm periods of the last 400 000 years. The changeovers from warm to ice age conditions are slower than those from ice age to warm conditions. We propose the presence of strong negative sea–ice feedbacks may be responsible for slowing the transition from warm to full ice age conditions. By improving understanding of past abrupt changes, we may have improved knowledge of future system behavior.
M. Levent Kavvas, Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and James Polsinelli
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1-2020, 2020
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After deriving a fractional continuity equation, a previously-developed equation for water flux in porous media was combined with the Dupuit approximation to obtain an equation for groundwater motion in multi-fractional space in unconfined aquifers. As demonstrated in the numerical application, the orders of the fractional space and time derivatives modulate the speed of groundwater table evolution, slowing the process with the decrease in the powers of the fractional derivatives from 1.
Krishna-Pillai Sukumara-Pillai Krishnamohan, Govindasamy Bala, Long Cao, Lei Duan, and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 885–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-885-2019, 2019
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We find that sulfate aerosols are more effective in cooling the climate system when they reside higher in the stratosphere. We explain this sensitivity in terms of radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. Sulfate aerosols heat the stratospheric layers, causing an increase in stratospheric water vapor content and a reduction in high clouds. These changes are larger when aerosols are prescribed near the tropopause, offsetting part of the aerosol-induced negative radiative forcing/cooling.
Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Gabriele Messori, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, 2019
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We show how the complex dynamics of the jet stream at midlatitude can be described by a simple mathematical model. We match the properties of the model to those obtained by the jet data derived from observations.
Stefanie Talento, Lea Schneider, Johannes Werner, and Jürg Luterbacher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 347–364, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-347-2019, 2019
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Quantifying hydroclimate variability beyond the instrumental period is essential for putting fluctuations into long-term perspective and providing a validation for climate models. We evaluate, in a virtual setup, the potential for generating millennium-long summer precipitation reconstructions over south-eastern Asia.
We find that performing a real-world reconstruction with the current available proxy network is indeed feasible, as virtual-world reconstructions are skilful in most areas.
Lennert B. Stap, Peter Köhler, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, 2019
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Processes causing the same global-average radiative forcing might lead to different global temperature changes. We expand the theoretical framework by which we calculate paleoclimate sensitivity with an efficacy factor. Applying the revised approach to radiative forcing caused by CO2 and land ice albedo perturbations, inferred from data of the past 800 000 years, gives a new paleo-based estimate of climate sensitivity.
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Raquel Nieto, Marta Vázquez, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 121–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-121-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-121-2019, 2019
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Ice melting at the scale of inter-annual fluctuations against the trend is favoured by an increase in moisture transport in summer, autumn, and winter and a decrease in spring. On a daily basis extreme humidity transport increases the formation of ice in winter and decreases it in spring, summer, and autumn; in these three seasons it thus contributes to Arctic sea ice melting. These patterns differ sharply from that linked to decline, especially in summer when the opposite trend applies.
Iago Algarra, Jorge Eiras-Barca, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Raquel Nieto, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 107–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-107-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-107-2019, 2019
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We analyse moisture transport triggered by the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ), a maximum in wind speed fields located within the first kilometre of the US Great Plain's troposphere, through the innovative Eulerian Weather Research and Forecasting Model tracer tool. Much moisture associated with this low-level jet has been found in northern regions located in a vast extension of the continent, highlighting the key role played by the GPLLJ in North America's advective transport of moisture.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, 2018
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Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity.
Mark M. Dekker, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1243–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, 2018
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We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one system affects the background conditions of another system. Using bifurcation theory, various types of these events are considered and early warning indicators are suggested. An illustration of such an event is found in a conceptual model, coupling the North Atlantic Ocean with the equatorial Pacific. This demonstrates the possibility of events such as this in nature.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, Guido Cioni, Martin Claussen, Klaus Fraedrich, Marvin Heidkamp, Cathy Hohenegger, Diego Jimenez de la Cuesta, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Alexander Lemburg, Thorsten Mauritsen, Katharina Meraner, Niklas Röber, Hauke Schmidt, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, Alexander Winkler, Xiuhua Zhu, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1191–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, 2018
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Model experiments show that changing the sense of Earth's rotation has relatively little impact on the globally and zonally averaged energy budgets but leads to large shifts in continental climates and patterns of precipitation. The retrograde world is greener as the desert area shrinks. Deep water formation shifts from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific with subsequent changes in ocean overturning. Over large areas of the Indian Ocean, cyanobacteria dominate over bulk phytoplankton.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1127–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, 2018
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Turbulent fluxes represent an efficient way to transport heat and moisture from the surface into the atmosphere. Due to their inherently highly complex nature, they are commonly described by semiempirical relationships. What we show here is that these fluxes can also be predicted by viewing them as the outcome of a heat engine that operates between the warm surface and the cooler atmosphere and that works at its limit.
Marc Schleiss
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-955-2018, 2018
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The present study aims at explaining how intermittency (i.e., the alternation of dry and rainy periods) affects the rate at which precipitation extremes increase with temperature. Using high-resolution rainfall data from 99 stations in the United States, we show that at scales beyond a few hours, intermittency causes rainfall extremes to deviate substantially from Clausius–Clapeyron. A new model is proposed to better represent and predict these changes across scales.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje Berntsen, Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 879–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, 2018
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A key question in climate science is how the global mean surface temperature responds to changes in greenhouse gases. This dependency is quantified by the climate sensitivity, which is determined by the complex feedbacks in the climate system. In this study observations of past climate change are used to estimate this sensitivity. Our estimate is consistent with values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by complex climate models but sensitive to the use of uncertain input data.
Dieter Gerten, Martin Schönfeld, and Bernhard Schauberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 849–863, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-849-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-849-2018, 2018
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Cultural processes are underrepresented in Earth system models, although they decisively shape humanity’s planetary imprint. We set forth ideas on how Earth system analysis can be enriched by formalising aspects of religion (understood broadly as a collective belief in things held sacred). We sketch possible modelling avenues (extensions of existing Earth system models and new co-evolutionary models) and suggest research primers to explicate and quantify mental aspects of the Anthropocene.
Stefan Lange
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 627–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-627-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-627-2018, 2018
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The bias correction of surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation using parametric quantile mapping methods is shown to be more effective (i) at the daily than at the monthly timescale, (ii) if the spatial resolution gap between the reference data and the data to be corrected is bridged in a more suitable manner than by bilinear interpolation, and (iii) if physical upper limits are taken into account during the adjustment of either radiation component.
Camilla Mathison, Chetan Deva, Pete Falloon, and Andrew J. Challinor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 563–592, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-563-2018, 2018
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Sowing and harvest dates are a significant source of uncertainty within crop models. South Asia is one region with a large uncertainty. We aim to provide more accurate sowing and harvest dates than currently available and that are relevant for climate impact assessments. This method reproduces the present day sowing and harvest dates for most parts of India and when applied to two future periods provides a useful way of modelling potential growing season adaptations to changes in future climate.
Dario A. Zappalà, Marcelo Barreiro, and Cristina Masoller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 383–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-383-2018, 2018
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The dynamics of our climate involves multiple timescales, and while a lot of work has been devoted to quantifying variations in time-averaged variables or variations in their seasonal cycles, variations in daily variability that occur over several decades still remain poorly understood. Here we analyse daily surface air temperature and demonstrate that inter-decadal changes can be precisely identified and quantified with the Hilbert analysis tool.
Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 15–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, 2018
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The Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method applies statistical information to systematically select, transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the Earth system state. We show that due to changing climate forcing, such as anthropogenic climate change, the ad hoc assessment indicators might need to be reevaluated. Within an iterative process, this method would allow us to select scientifically consistent and societally relevant assessment indicators.
Liga Bethere, Juris Sennikovs, and Uldis Bethers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 951–962, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-951-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-951-2017, 2017
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We define three new climate indices based on monthly mean temperature and total precipitation values that describe the main features of the climate in the Baltic states. Higher values in each index correspond to (1) less distinct seasonality and (2) warmer and (3) wetter climate. It was calculated that in the future all three indices will increase. Such indices summarize and illustrate the spatial features of the Baltic climate, and they can be used in further analysis of climate change impact.
Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and M. Levent Kavvas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 931–949, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-931-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-931-2017, 2017
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Groundwater level fluctuations in confined aquifer wells with long observations exhibit site-specific fractal scaling behavior, and the underlying distribution exhibits either non-Gaussian characteristics, which may be fitted by the Lévy stable distribution, or Gaussian characteristics. The estimated Hurst exponent is highly dependent on the length and the specific time interval of the time series. The MF-DFA and MMA analyses showed that different levels of multifractality exist.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 849–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, 2017
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We provide an explanation why land temperatures respond more strongly to global warming than ocean temperatures, a robust finding in observations and models that has so far not been understood well. We explain it by the different ways by which ocean and land surfaces buffer the strong variation in solar radiation and demonstrate this with a simple, physically based model. Our explanation also illustrates why nighttime temperatures warm more strongly, another robust finding of global warming.
Milan Flach, Fabian Gans, Alexander Brenning, Joachim Denzler, Markus Reichstein, Erik Rodner, Sebastian Bathiany, Paul Bodesheim, Yanira Guanche, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 677–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, 2017
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Anomalies and extremes are often detected using univariate peak-over-threshold approaches in the geoscience community. The Earth system is highly multivariate. We compare eight multivariate anomaly detection algorithms and combinations of data preprocessing. We identify three anomaly detection algorithms that outperform univariate extreme event detection approaches. The workflows have the potential to reveal novelties in data. Remarks on their application to real Earth observations are provided.
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Short summary
Emissions due to human activity impact on rainfall. This impact depends on the properties of the gases or particles that are emitted. This paper uses improved understanding of relevant processes to produce a new measure, called the Global Precipitation-change Potential, which allows a direct comparison of the effect of different emissions on global-mean rainfall. Carbon dioxide, in the years following its emission, is shown to be less effective than methane emissions at causing rainfall change.
Emissions due to human activity impact on rainfall. This impact depends on the properties of the...
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