Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-199-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-199-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Perspective
| Highlight paper
| 
26 Feb 2026
Perspective | Highlight paper |
| 26 Feb 2026
| 26 Feb 2026
Challenges and opportunities for understanding societal impacts of climate extremes
Gabriele Messori
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Dept. of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 752 36, Sweden
Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Uppsala University, Uppsala, 752 36, Sweden
Dept. of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 114 18, Sweden
Emily Boyd
Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund University, Lund, 223 62, Sweden
Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Lund University, Lund, 223 62, Sweden
Beijer Institute for Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, 104 05, Sweden
Joakim Nivre
Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Uppsala University, Uppsala, 752 36, Sweden
Department of Linguistics and Philology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 751 26, Sweden
Elena Raffetti
Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Uppsala University, Uppsala, 752 36, Sweden
Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, 171 77, Sweden
British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 0SR, UK
Related authors
Ni Li, Wim Thiery, Shorouq Zahra, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Koffi Worou, Murathan Kurfalı, Seppe Lampe, Paul Muñoz, Clare Flynn, Camila Trigoso, Joakim Nivre, Jakob Zscheischler, and Gabriele Messori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2609–2636, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2609-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2609-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Climate extremes threaten society and ecosystems, making impact understanding critical. Wikimpacts 1.0 provides an automated pipeline processing Wikipedia texts with underexploited information on climate impacts, yielding comprehensive socio-economic impact data for 2726 climate events from 1034–2024. It offers broader storm-related impacts and finer spatial resolution than established databases, showcasing natural language processing's potential to advance climate impact data.
Michael Konrad Schutte, Leonardo Olivetti, Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2203, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
When testing whether signals on maps are statistically meaningful, scientists must account for multiple testing. Otherwise, some results may appear significant purely by chance. We show that the widely used false discovery rate correction can be misleading: simply changing the geographic region analyzed can make the same data appear far more statistically significant, even though nothing has changed. We recommend transparent reporting and using region-wide averages instead of point-wise testing.
Florian Börgel, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, Leonie Barghorn, Leonard Borchert, Bronwyn Cahill, Cyril Dutheil, Leonie Esters, Małgorzata Falarz, Helena L. Filipsson, Matthias Gröger, Jari Hänninen, Magnus Hieronymus, Erko Jakobson, Mehdi Pasha Karami, Karol Kuliński, Taavi Liblik, H. E. Markus Meier, Gabriele Messori, Lev Naumov, Thomas Neumann, Piia Post, Gregor Rehder, Anna Rutgersson, and Georg Sebastian Voelker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 415–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-415-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-415-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This review explains how weather patterns, guided by the polar jet stream, influence the Baltic Sea’s climate and ecosystem. It covers the North Atlantic Oscillation, blocking events and other processes and discusses how they affect temperature, rainfall, and storms from days to decades. These shifts then impact oxygen levels, productivity, and acidification in the Baltic Sea. Physical links are fairly well known, but biogeochemical pathways remain uncertain.
Aleksa Stanković, Rodrigo Caballero, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1649, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Most storms occur over ocean where they cause strong surface winds. The storms are strongest over the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Southern Ocean. In each of these basins, the storms that cause the strongest surface winds develop similarly. These storms typically develop together with another, previously existing storm. At the same time, extreme winds are stronger in some basins than in others. Our analysis points that if the storms develop faster, they, on average, cause stronger winds.
Valerio Lembo, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, and Flavio Emanuele Pons
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 453–473, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-453-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-453-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Hemispheric heatwaves have fundamental implications for ecosystems and societies. They are studied together with large-scale atmospheric dynamics, through the lens of poleward heat transports by planetary-scale waves. Extremely weak transports of heat towards the North Pole are found to be associated with hemispheric heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Therefore, we conclude that heat transports are a possible indicator and a precursor of concurrent hemispheric heatwaves.
William J. M. Seviour, Justin Finkel, Philip Rupp, Regan Mudhar, Amy H. Butler, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Peter Hitchcock, Blanca Ayarzagüena, Dong-Chan Hong, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Hera Kim, Eun-Pa Lim, Daniel De Maeseneire, Gabriele Messori, Gerbrand Koren, Michael Sigmond, Isla R. Simpson, and Seok-Woo Son
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-230, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is thought to play a role in driving weather extremes, but quantifying this role for a given event has proved challenging. Using a new set of perturbed subseasonal forecast experiments from 7 modelling centres we determine the stratospheric contribution to the risk and severity of three recent extreme weather events. The forecast-based methodology that we develop is applicable to understanding a range of other drivers of weather extremes.
Alok Kumar Samantaray and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-646, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-646, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global dataset that links drought events to human and economic exposure and impacts. Using a two-step approach, we first cluster drought events from precipitation and temperature records to track their severity and extent, and then connect them to population and Gross Domestic Product exposure and to impacts reported in disaster databases. The dataset supports risk planning and mitigation efforts.
Sara Lindersson and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 6379–6403, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6379-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6379-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study of past temperature-related disasters requires information on socioeconomic impacts, hazard intensity and human exposure. This is often lacking in current disaster databases. Our dataset fills this gap by integrating impact records with information on disaster locations, high-resolution meteorological data, and population estimates. Covering 382 disasters in 71 countries (1979–2018), this dataset enables deeper analyses of heat-related risk and vulnerabilities.
Meriem Krouma and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3662, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present two forecasting methods for extreme precipitation and wind in Europe, using stochastic weather generators and past atmospheric patterns. One targets precipitation via weather model reforecasts; the other predicts wind from large-scale patterns. Both outperform standard weather models up to 10 days ahead, offering improved accuracy for both individual and compound extreme events.
Kai Kornuber, Emanuele Bevacqua, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wiebke S. Jäger, Pauline Rivoire, Cassandra D. W. Rogers, Fabiola Banfi, Fulden Batibeniz, James Carruthers, Carlo de Michele, Silvia de Angeli, Cristina Deidda, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Andreas H. Fink, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Katharina Küpfer, Patrick Ludwig, Douglas Maraun, Gabriele Messori, Shruti Nath, Fiachra O’Loughlin, Joaquim G. Pinto, Benjamin Poschlod, Alexandre M. Ramos, Colin Raymond, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Deepti Singh, Laura Suarez Gutierrez, Philip J. Ward, and Christopher J. White
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4683, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Impacts from extreme weather events are becoming increasingly severe under global warming, in particular when events occur simultaneously or successively. While these complex event combinations are often difficult to analyse as impact data, early warning schemes or modelling frameworks might not be fit for purpose. In this perspective we reflect on the usability of compound event research to bridge the gap between academic research and real-world applications, by formulating a set of guidelines.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Clare M. Flynn, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, Michael K. Schutte, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4431–4453, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We created a new, publicly available, database of the top 50 most extreme European winter windstorms from each of four different meteorological input data sets covering the years 1995–2015. We found variability in all aspects of our database, from which storms were included in the top 50 storms for each input to the storms' spatial variability. We urge users of our database to consider the storms as identified from two or more input sources within our database where possible.
Michael K. Schutte, Alice Portal, Simon H. Lee, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 521–548, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale motions in the atmosphere, namely atmospheric waves, greatly impact the weather that we experience at the Earth's surface. Here we investigate how waves in the troposphere (the lower 10 km of the atmosphere) and the stratosphere (above the troposphere) interact to affect surface weather. We find that tropospheric waves that are reflected back down by the stratosphere change weather patterns and temperatures in North America. These changes can indirectly affect the weather in Europe.
Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 169–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers are two main drivers of extreme weather in Europe. In this study, we investigate their joint changes in future climates over the North Atlantic. Our results show that both the concurrence of these events and the intensity of atmospheric rivers increase by the end of the century across different future scenarios. Furthermore, explosive cyclones associated with atmospheric rivers last longer and are deeper than those without atmospheric rivers.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
Gabriele Messori, Antonio Segalini, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1207–1225, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells in remote geographical regions have potentially far-reaching impacts on society and the environment. Despite this, we have little knowledge of when and where these extreme events have occurred in the past decades. In this paper, we present a summary of past simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells and provide a computer program to enable other researchers to study them.
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, and Robert Vautard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into extreme-weather events. Our tool unveils how climate change and natural variability affect these events, affecting communities worldwide. Our research equips policymakers and the public with essential knowledge, fostering informed decisions and enhancing climate resilience. We analysed two distinct events, showcasing ClimaMeter's global relevance.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the last decades, weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future has been dominated by physics-based numerical models. Recently, deep learning models have challenged this paradigm. However, the latter models may struggle when forecasting weather extremes. In this article, we argue for deep learning models specifically designed to handle extreme events, and we propose a foundational framework to develop such models.
Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 737–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to as persistence, and whether unusually persistent patterns favour warm-temperature extremes in Europe. We see no clear relationship between summertime heatwaves and unusually persistent patterns. This suggests that heatwaves do not necessarily require the continued flow of warm air over a region and that local effects could be important for their occurrence.
Axel Kleidon, Gabriele Messori, Somnath Baidya Roy, Ira Didenkulova, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 241–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, 2023
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, and Vivien Wendt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over 10 km above the ground, there is a region of the atmosphere called the stratosphere. While there is very little air in the stratosphere itself, its interactions with the lower parts of the atmosphere – where we live – can affect the weather. Here we study a specific example of such an interaction, whereby processes occurring at the boundary of the stratosphere can lead to a continent-wide drop in temperatures in North America during winter.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Ni Li, Wim Thiery, Shorouq Zahra, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Koffi Worou, Murathan Kurfalı, Seppe Lampe, Paul Muñoz, Clare Flynn, Camila Trigoso, Joakim Nivre, Jakob Zscheischler, and Gabriele Messori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2609–2636, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2609-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2609-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Climate extremes threaten society and ecosystems, making impact understanding critical. Wikimpacts 1.0 provides an automated pipeline processing Wikipedia texts with underexploited information on climate impacts, yielding comprehensive socio-economic impact data for 2726 climate events from 1034–2024. It offers broader storm-related impacts and finer spatial resolution than established databases, showcasing natural language processing's potential to advance climate impact data.
Michael Konrad Schutte, Leonardo Olivetti, Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2203, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
When testing whether signals on maps are statistically meaningful, scientists must account for multiple testing. Otherwise, some results may appear significant purely by chance. We show that the widely used false discovery rate correction can be misleading: simply changing the geographic region analyzed can make the same data appear far more statistically significant, even though nothing has changed. We recommend transparent reporting and using region-wide averages instead of point-wise testing.
Florian Börgel, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, Leonie Barghorn, Leonard Borchert, Bronwyn Cahill, Cyril Dutheil, Leonie Esters, Małgorzata Falarz, Helena L. Filipsson, Matthias Gröger, Jari Hänninen, Magnus Hieronymus, Erko Jakobson, Mehdi Pasha Karami, Karol Kuliński, Taavi Liblik, H. E. Markus Meier, Gabriele Messori, Lev Naumov, Thomas Neumann, Piia Post, Gregor Rehder, Anna Rutgersson, and Georg Sebastian Voelker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 415–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-415-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-415-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This review explains how weather patterns, guided by the polar jet stream, influence the Baltic Sea’s climate and ecosystem. It covers the North Atlantic Oscillation, blocking events and other processes and discusses how they affect temperature, rainfall, and storms from days to decades. These shifts then impact oxygen levels, productivity, and acidification in the Baltic Sea. Physical links are fairly well known, but biogeochemical pathways remain uncertain.
Aleksa Stanković, Rodrigo Caballero, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1649, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1649, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Most storms occur over ocean where they cause strong surface winds. The storms are strongest over the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Southern Ocean. In each of these basins, the storms that cause the strongest surface winds develop similarly. These storms typically develop together with another, previously existing storm. At the same time, extreme winds are stronger in some basins than in others. Our analysis points that if the storms develop faster, they, on average, cause stronger winds.
Valerio Lembo, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, and Flavio Emanuele Pons
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 453–473, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-453-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-453-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Hemispheric heatwaves have fundamental implications for ecosystems and societies. They are studied together with large-scale atmospheric dynamics, through the lens of poleward heat transports by planetary-scale waves. Extremely weak transports of heat towards the North Pole are found to be associated with hemispheric heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Therefore, we conclude that heat transports are a possible indicator and a precursor of concurrent hemispheric heatwaves.
William J. M. Seviour, Justin Finkel, Philip Rupp, Regan Mudhar, Amy H. Butler, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Peter Hitchcock, Blanca Ayarzagüena, Dong-Chan Hong, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Hera Kim, Eun-Pa Lim, Daniel De Maeseneire, Gabriele Messori, Gerbrand Koren, Michael Sigmond, Isla R. Simpson, and Seok-Woo Son
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-230, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is thought to play a role in driving weather extremes, but quantifying this role for a given event has proved challenging. Using a new set of perturbed subseasonal forecast experiments from 7 modelling centres we determine the stratospheric contribution to the risk and severity of three recent extreme weather events. The forecast-based methodology that we develop is applicable to understanding a range of other drivers of weather extremes.
Alok Kumar Samantaray and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-646, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-646, 2026
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global dataset that links drought events to human and economic exposure and impacts. Using a two-step approach, we first cluster drought events from precipitation and temperature records to track their severity and extent, and then connect them to population and Gross Domestic Product exposure and to impacts reported in disaster databases. The dataset supports risk planning and mitigation efforts.
Sara Lindersson and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 6379–6403, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6379-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6379-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study of past temperature-related disasters requires information on socioeconomic impacts, hazard intensity and human exposure. This is often lacking in current disaster databases. Our dataset fills this gap by integrating impact records with information on disaster locations, high-resolution meteorological data, and population estimates. Covering 382 disasters in 71 countries (1979–2018), this dataset enables deeper analyses of heat-related risk and vulnerabilities.
Meriem Krouma and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3662, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present two forecasting methods for extreme precipitation and wind in Europe, using stochastic weather generators and past atmospheric patterns. One targets precipitation via weather model reforecasts; the other predicts wind from large-scale patterns. Both outperform standard weather models up to 10 days ahead, offering improved accuracy for both individual and compound extreme events.
Kai Kornuber, Emanuele Bevacqua, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wiebke S. Jäger, Pauline Rivoire, Cassandra D. W. Rogers, Fabiola Banfi, Fulden Batibeniz, James Carruthers, Carlo de Michele, Silvia de Angeli, Cristina Deidda, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Andreas H. Fink, Henrique M. D. Goulart, Katharina Küpfer, Patrick Ludwig, Douglas Maraun, Gabriele Messori, Shruti Nath, Fiachra O’Loughlin, Joaquim G. Pinto, Benjamin Poschlod, Alexandre M. Ramos, Colin Raymond, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Deepti Singh, Laura Suarez Gutierrez, Philip J. Ward, and Christopher J. White
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4683, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Impacts from extreme weather events are becoming increasingly severe under global warming, in particular when events occur simultaneously or successively. While these complex event combinations are often difficult to analyse as impact data, early warning schemes or modelling frameworks might not be fit for purpose. In this perspective we reflect on the usability of compound event research to bridge the gap between academic research and real-world applications, by formulating a set of guidelines.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Clare M. Flynn, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, Michael K. Schutte, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4431–4453, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We created a new, publicly available, database of the top 50 most extreme European winter windstorms from each of four different meteorological input data sets covering the years 1995–2015. We found variability in all aspects of our database, from which storms were included in the top 50 storms for each input to the storms' spatial variability. We urge users of our database to consider the storms as identified from two or more input sources within our database where possible.
Michael K. Schutte, Alice Portal, Simon H. Lee, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 521–548, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale motions in the atmosphere, namely atmospheric waves, greatly impact the weather that we experience at the Earth's surface. Here we investigate how waves in the troposphere (the lower 10 km of the atmosphere) and the stratosphere (above the troposphere) interact to affect surface weather. We find that tropospheric waves that are reflected back down by the stratosphere change weather patterns and temperatures in North America. These changes can indirectly affect the weather in Europe.
Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 169–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers are two main drivers of extreme weather in Europe. In this study, we investigate their joint changes in future climates over the North Atlantic. Our results show that both the concurrence of these events and the intensity of atmospheric rivers increase by the end of the century across different future scenarios. Furthermore, explosive cyclones associated with atmospheric rivers last longer and are deeper than those without atmospheric rivers.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
Gabriele Messori, Antonio Segalini, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1207–1225, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells in remote geographical regions have potentially far-reaching impacts on society and the environment. Despite this, we have little knowledge of when and where these extreme events have occurred in the past decades. In this paper, we present a summary of past simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells and provide a computer program to enable other researchers to study them.
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, and Robert Vautard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into extreme-weather events. Our tool unveils how climate change and natural variability affect these events, affecting communities worldwide. Our research equips policymakers and the public with essential knowledge, fostering informed decisions and enhancing climate resilience. We analysed two distinct events, showcasing ClimaMeter's global relevance.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the last decades, weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future has been dominated by physics-based numerical models. Recently, deep learning models have challenged this paradigm. However, the latter models may struggle when forecasting weather extremes. In this article, we argue for deep learning models specifically designed to handle extreme events, and we propose a foundational framework to develop such models.
Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 737–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to as persistence, and whether unusually persistent patterns favour warm-temperature extremes in Europe. We see no clear relationship between summertime heatwaves and unusually persistent patterns. This suggests that heatwaves do not necessarily require the continued flow of warm air over a region and that local effects could be important for their occurrence.
Axel Kleidon, Gabriele Messori, Somnath Baidya Roy, Ira Didenkulova, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 241–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, 2023
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, and Vivien Wendt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over 10 km above the ground, there is a region of the atmosphere called the stratosphere. While there is very little air in the stratosphere itself, its interactions with the lower parts of the atmosphere – where we live – can affect the weather. Here we study a specific example of such an interaction, whereby processes occurring at the boundary of the stratosphere can lead to a continent-wide drop in temperatures in North America during winter.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Cited articles
Ahmed, I., van Esch, M. M. E., and van der Hoeven, F. D.: Behavioural adaptation to heatwaves in a temperate city: Insights from Rotterdam, Cities, 165, 106160, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.106160, 2025.
Balch, J. K., Iglesias, V., Braswell, A. E., Rossi, M. W., Joseph, M. B., Mahood, A. L., Shrum, T. R., White, C. T., Scholl, V. M., McGuire, B., Karban, C., Buckland, M., and Travis, W. R.: Social-environmental extremes: Rethinking extraordinary events as outcomes of interacting biophysical and social systems, Earth's Future, 8, e2019EF001319, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001319, 2020.
Baulenas, E., Versteeg, G., Terrado, M., Mindlin, J., and Bojovic, D.: Assembling the climate story: Use of storyline approaches in climate-related science, Global Challenges, 7, 2200183, https://doi.org/10.1002/gch2.202200183, 2023.
Beck, H. E., Van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Larraondo, P. R., McVicar, T. R., Pan, M., Dutra, E., and Miralles, D. G.: MSWX: Global 3-hourly 0.1° bias-corrected meteorological data including near-real-time updates and forecast ensembles, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 103, E710–E732, 2022.
Ben-Ari, T., Boé, J., Ciais, P., Lecerf, R., Van der Velde, M., and Makowski, D.: Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France, Nat. Commun., 9, 1627, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04028-8, 2018.
Colon, C., Hallegatte, S., and Rozenberg, J.: Criticality analysis of a country's transport network via an agent-based supply chain model, Nat. Sustain., 4, 209–215, 2021.
Cook, B. I., Mankin, J. S., Marvel, K., Williams, A. P., Smerdon, J. E., and Anchukaitis, K. J.: Twenty-first century drought projections in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios, Earth's Future, 8, e2019EF001461, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001461, 2020.
Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., Yan, K., Brandimarte, L., and Blöschl, G.: Debates–Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Capturing feedbacks between physical and social processes, Water Resour. Res., 51, 4770–4781, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017896, 2015.
Di Baldassarre, G., Martinez, F., Kalantari, Z., and Viglione, A.: Drought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 225–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-225-2017, 2017.
de Brito, M. M., Kuhlicke, C., and Marx, A.: Near-real-time drought impact assessment: A text mining approach on the 2018/19 drought in Germany, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 1040a9, 2020.
de Brito, M. M.: Compound and cascading drought impacts do not happen by chance: A proposal to quantify their relationships, Sci. Total Environ., 778, 146236, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146236, 2021.
de Brito, M. M., Sodoge, J., Fekete, A., Hagenlocher, M., Koks, E. E., Kuhlicke, C., Ward, P. J., Messori, G., de Ruiter, M., Schweizer, P. J., and Ward, P. J.: Uncovering the dynamics of multi-sector impacts of hydrological extremes: A methods overview, Earth's Future, 12, e2023EF003906, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003906, 2024.
Donatti, C. I., Nicholas, K., Fedele, G., Delforge, D., Speybroeck, N., Moraga, P., Blatter, J., Below, R., and Zvoleff, A.: Global hotspots of climate-related disasters, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 108, 104488, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104488, 2024
EC: European Commission: EU Adaptation Strategy, European Commission, https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/adaptation-climate-change/eu-adaptation-strategy_en (last access: 2 July 2025), 2021.
Enenkel, M., Shrestha, R. M., Stokes, E., Roman, M., Wang, Z., Espinosa, M. T. M., Hajzmanova, I., Ginnetti, J., and Vinck, P.: Emergencies do not stop at night: Advanced analysis of displacement based on satellite-derived nighttime light observations, IBM J. Res. Dev., 64, 8:1–8:12, 2020.
Enqvist, J. P. and Ziervogel, G.: Water governance and justice in Cape Town: An overview, WIREs Water, 6, e1354, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1354, 2019.
Fouillet, A., Rey, G., Wagner, V., Laaidi, K., Empereur-Bissonnet, P., Le Tertre, A., Frayssinet, P., Bessemoulin, P., Laurent, F., Jougla, E., and Hémon, D.: Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave, Int. J. Epidemiol., 37, 309–317, https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dym253, 2008.
Frieler, K., Volkholz, J., Lange, S., Schewe, J., Mengel, M., del Rocío Rivas López, M., Otto, C., Reyer, C. P. O., Karger, D. N., Malle, J. T., Treu, S., Menz, C., Blanchard, J. L., Harrison, C. S., Petrik, C. M., Eddy, T. D., Ortega-Cisneros, K., Novaglio, C., Rousseau, Y., Watson, R. A., Stock, C., Liu, X., Heneghan, R., Tittensor, D., Maury, O., Büchner, M., Vogt, T., Wang, T., Sun, F., Sauer, I. J., Koch, J., Vanderkelen, I., Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Rabin, S., Klar, J., Vega del Valle, I. D., Lasslop, G., Chadburn, S., Burke, E., Gallego-Sala, A., Smith, N., Chang, J., Hantson, S., Burton, C., Gädeke, A., Li, F., Gosling, S. N., Müller Schmied, H., Hattermann, F., Wang, J., Yao, F., Hickler, T., Marcé, R., Pierson, D., Thiery, W., Mercado-Bettín, D., Ladwig, R., Ayala-Zamora, A. I., Forrest, M., and Bechtold, M.: Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024.
Fritz, H. M., Blount, C. D., Thwin, S., Thu, M. K., and Chan, N.: Cyclone Nargis storm surge in Myanmar, Nat. Geosci., 2, 448–449, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo551, 2009.
Gampe, D., Schwingshackl, C., Böhnisch, A., Mittermeier, M., Sandstad, M., and Wood, R. R.: Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 589–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-589-2024, 2024.
García-León, D., Casanueva, A., Standardi, G., Marra, F., Tejedor, A., and Sanchez, J.: Current and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe, Nat. Commun., 12, 5807, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26050-z, 2021.
González-Abad, J. and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Are deep learning methods suitable for downscaling global climate projections? An intercomparison for temperature and precipitation over Spain, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 4, 240121, https://doi.org/10.1175/AIES-D-24-0121.1, 2025.
Goulart, H. M., Athanasiou, P., van Ginkel, K., van der Wiel, K., Winter, G., Pinto, I., and van den Hurk, B.: Exploring coastal climate adaptation through storylines: Insights from cyclone Idai in Beira, Mozambique, Cell Rep. Sustain., 2, 100194, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2024.100270, 2025.
Hazeleger, W., Severijns, C., Semmler, T., Shapiro, M., Huang, B., Selten, F., van den Hurk, B., van Oldenborgh, G., Döscher, R., and Roeckner, E.: Tales of future weather, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 107–113, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2451, 2015.
Hu, Y., Yamazaki, D., Zhou, X., and Zhao, G.: Flood impact assessment using nighttime light remote sensing data, SSRN [preprint], https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5011700, 2025.
van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Pacchetti, M. B., Boere, E., Ciullo, A., Coulter, L., Dessai, S., Donnelly, C., Ebi, K. L., Fisher, J. B., and Witpas, K.: Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events, Clim. Risk Manage., 40, 100500, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500, 2023.
IFRC: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies: Final Report Tanzania: Floods, Emergency appeal no. MDRTZ010 GLIDE no. FL-2009-000264-TZA, https://www.ifrc.org/docs/appeals/10/MDRTZ010fr.pdf (last access: 2 July 2025), 2011.
Jack, C., Korodimou, M., Vogel, M., Heinrich, D., Jaime, C., and El Hajj, R.: Climate risk storylines: Navigating the uncertainties of climate change: Guidelines for humanitarian practitioners, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, https://www.climatecentre.org/wp-content/uploads/Red-Cross-Red-Crescent-Climate-Impact-Storylines.pdf (last access: 24 February 2026), 2024.
Janoš, T., Quijal-Zamorano, M., Shartova, N., Gallo, E., Méndez Turrubiates, R. F., Beltrán Barrón, D., Vázquez-Armijo, A., and Ballester, J.: Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths, Nat. Med., 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-025-03954-7, 2025.
Jones, R. L., Guha-Sapir, D., and Tubeuf, S.: Human and economic impacts of natural disasters: can we trust the global data?, Sci. Data, 9, 572, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01667-x, 2022.
Jones, R. L., Kharb, A., and Tubeuf, S.: The untold story of missing data in disaster research: a systematic review of the empirical literature utilising the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 103006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acfd42, 2023.
Jäger, W. S., de Ruiter, M. C., Tiggeloven, T., and Ward, P. J.: What can we learn about multi-hazard impacts from global disaster records?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2751–2769, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2751-2025, 2025.
Klimiuk, T., Ludwig, P., Sanchez-Benitez, A., Goessling, H. F., Braesicke, P., and Pinto, J. G.: The European summer heatwave of 2019 – a regional storyline perspective, Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 239–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, 2025.
Kuhlicke, C., de Brito, M. M., Bartkowski, B., Botzen, W., Doğulu, C., Han, S., Hudson, P., Nuray Karanci, A., Klassert C. J., Otto, D., Scolobig, A., Moreno Soares, T., and Rufat, S.: Spinning in circles? A systematic review on the role of theory in social vulnerability, resilience and adaptation research, Glob. Environ. Change, 80, 102672, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102672, 2023.
Kummu, M., Kosonen, M., and Masoumzadeh Sayyar, S.: Downscaled gridded global dataset for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita PPP over 1990–2022, Sci. Data, 12, 178, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-04487-x, 2025.
Lay, C. R., Sarofim, M. C., Zilberg, A. V., Mills, D. M., Jones, R. W., Schwartz, J., and Kinney, P. L.: City-level vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in the USA and future projections: a geographically clustered meta-regression, Lancet Planet. Health, 5, e338–e346,, 2021.
Lehner, F., Deser, C., Maher, N., Marotzke, J., Fischer, E. M., Brunner, L., Knutti, R., and Hawkins, E.: Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, 2020.
Leonard, M., Westra, S., Phatak, A., Lambert, M., van den Hurk, B., McInnes, K., Risbey, J., Schuster, S., Jakob, D., and Stafford-Smith, M.: A compound event framework for understanding extreme impacts, WIREs Clim. Change, 5, 113–128, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.245, 2014.
Levine, X. J., Williams, R. S., Marshall, G., Orr, A., Seland Graff, L., Handorf, D., Karpechko, A., Köhler, R., Wijngaard, R. R., Johnston, N., Lee, H., Nieradzik, L., and Mooney, P. A.: Storylines of summer Arctic climate change constrained by Barents–Kara seas and Arctic tropospheric warming for climate risk assessment, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024
Li, N., Zahra, S., de Brito, M. M., Flynn, C. M., Görnerup, O., Worou, K., Kurfalı, M., Meng, C., Thiery, W., Zscheischler, J., Messori, G., and Nivre, J.: Using LLMs to build a database of climate extreme impacts, Proceedings of NLP meets Climate Change @ ACL 2024, Association for Computational Linguistics, https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/2024.climatenlp-1.7, 2024.
Li, Z. and Yu, W.: Economic impact of the Los Angeles wildfires, Technical Report, UCLA Anderson Forecast, https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/about/centers/ucla-anderson-forecast/economic-impact-los-angeles-wildfires (last access: 19 March 2025), 2025.
Lindersson, S. and Messori, G.: SHEDIS-Temperature: linking temperature-related disaster impacts to subnational data on meteorology and human exposure, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 6379–6403, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6379-2025, 2025.
Lindersson, S., Raffetti, E., Rusca, M., Brandimarte, L., Mård, J., and Di Baldassarre, G.: The wider the gap between rich and poor the higher the flood mortality, Nat. Sustain., 6, 995–1005, 2023.
Longden, T.: Underestimating heat-related mortality – a comparison of excess mortality and death record studies for Australia, Lancet Reg. Health West. Pac., 58, 100395, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2025.101557, 2025.
Mankin, J. S.: The People Have a Right to Climate Data, Int. N.Y. Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/20/opinion/climate-risk-disasters-data.html (last access: 2 July 2025), 2024.
Mazzoleni, M., Mondino, E., Matanó, A., Van Loon, A. F., and Barendrecht, M. H.: Modelling the role of multiple risk attitudes in implementing adaptation measures to reduce drought and flood losses, J. Hydrol., 636, 131305, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131305, 2024.
McCabe, C. J., Helm, J. L., Halvorson, M. A., Blaikie, K. J., Lee, C. M., and Rhew, I. C.: Estimating substance use disparities across intersectional social positions using machine learning: An application of group-lasso interaction network, Psychol. Addict. Behav., 39, 113–126, https://doi.org/10.1037/adb0001020, 2025.
McPhillips, L. E., Chang, H., Chester, M. V., Depietri, Y., Friedman, E., Grimm, N. B., Kominoski, J. S., McPhearson, T., Méndez-Lázaro, P., Rosi, E. J., and Shafiei Shiva, J.: Defining extreme events: A cross-disciplinary review, Earth's Future, 6, 441–455, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000632, 2018.
Merz, B., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., Pittore, M., Babeyko, A., Bresch, D. N., Domeisen, D. I. V., Feser, F., Koszalka, I., Kreibich, H., Pantillon, F., Parolai, S., Pinto, J. G., Punge, H. G., Rivalta, E., Schröter, K., Strehlow, K., Weisse, R., and Wurpt, A.: Impact forecasting to support emergency management of natural hazards, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2020RG000704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704, 2020.
Messori, G., Muheki, D., Batibeniz, F., Bevacqua, E., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., and Thiery, W.: Global mapping of concurrent hazards and impacts associated with climate extremes under climate change, Earth's Future, 13, e2025EF006325, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006325, 2025.
Moemken, J., Messori, G., and Pinto, J. G.: Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets, Weather Clim. Extrem., 44, 100661, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661, 2024.
Muheki, D., Deijns, A. A. J., Bevacqua, E., Messori, G., Zscheischler, J., and Thiery, W.: The perfect storm? Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024.
Niggli, L., Huggel, C., Muccione, V., Neukom, R., and Salzmann, N.: Towards improved understanding of cascading and interconnected risks from concurrent weather extremes: Analysis of historical heat and drought extreme events, PLoS Climate, 1, e0000057, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000057, 2022.
NOAA: Looking Ahead at Summer Drought in 2025, https://www.drought.gov/news/looking-ahead-summer-drought-2025-05-28 (last access: 16 July 2025), 2025.
Panwar, V. and Sen, S.: Economic impact of natural disasters: An empirical re-examination, Margin J. Appl. Econ. Res., 13, 109–139, 2019.
Pfleiderer, P., Jézéquel, A., Legrand, J., Legrix, N., Markantonis, I., Vignotto, E., and Yiou, P.: Simulating compound weather extremes responsible for critical crop failure with stochastic weather generators, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021, 2021.
Pfleiderer, P., Frölicher, T. L., Kropf, C. M., Lamboll, R. D., Lejeune, Q., Capela Lourenço, T., Maussion, F., McCaughey, J. W., Quilcaille, Y., Rogelj, J., Sanderson, B., Schuster, L., Sillmann, J., Smith, C., Theokritoff, E., and Schleussner, C.-F.: Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information, Nat. Geosci., 18, 10–19, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01597-w, 2025.
Preston, C. J.: Challenges and opportunities for understanding non-economic loss and damage, Ethics Policy Environ., 20, 143–155, 2017.
Quijal-Zamorano, M., Martínez-Solanas, È., Achebak, H., Petrova, D., Robine, J.-M., Herrmann, F. R., Rodó, X., and Ballester, J.: Seasonality reversal of temperature attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe, Lancet Planet. Health, 5, e573–e575, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00211-4, 2021.
Qiu,M., Li, J., Gould, C. F., Jing, R., Kelp, M., Childs, M., Kiang, M., Heft-Neal, S., Diffenbaugh, N., and Burke, M.: Mortality burden from wildfire smoke under climate change, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. w32307, National Bureau of Economic Research, https://doi.org/10.3386/w32307, 2024.
Raffetti, E., Ahrne, M., Döring, S., Hagström, A., Mazzoleni, M., Messori, G., Rusca, M., and Zarantonello, L.: Sustainable transformations for healthcare systems in a changing climate, Cell Rep. Sustain., 1, 100339, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2024.100054, 2024.
Rusca, M., Messori, G., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Scenarios of human responses to unprecedented social-environmental extreme events, Earth's Future, 9, e2020EF001911, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001911, 2021.
Rusca, M., Savelli, E., Di Baldassarre, Biza. A., and Messori, G..: Unprecedented droughts are expected to exacerbate urban inequalities in Southern Africa, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 98–105, 2023.
Rusca, M., Sverdlik, A., Acharya, A., Basel, B., Boyd, E., Comelli, T., Dodman, D., Fraser, A., Harris, D. M., Lindersson, S., Mazzoleni, M., Mbah, M. F., Mitlin, D., Ogra, A., Pelling, M., Raffetti, E., Sultana, F., Thompson, E., Tozzi, A., Zwarteveen, M., and Messori, G.: Plural climate storylines to foster just urban futures, Nat. Cities, 1, 732–740, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44284-024-00133-6, 2024.
Sangelantoni, L., Sobolowski, S., Lorenz, T., Hodnebrog, Ø., Cardoso, R. M., Soares, P. M. M., Ferretti, R., Lavín-Gullón, A., Fernandez, J., Goergen, K., Milovac, J., Katragkou, E., Kartsios, S., Coppola, E., Pichelli, E., Adinolfi, M., Mercogliano, P., Berthou, S., de Vries, H., Dobler, A., Belušić, D., Feldmann, H., Tölle, M. H., and Bastin, S.: Investigating the representation of heatwaves from an ensemble of km-scale regional climate simulations within CORDEX-FPS convection, Clim. Dyn., 62, 4635–4671, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06769-9, 2024
Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Luca, A. D., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Satoh, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Wehner, M., Zhou, B., and Allan, R.: Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate, in: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S. L., and Connors, C.: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1513–1766, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.013, 2021.
Severino, L. G., Kropf, C. M., Afargan-Gerstman, H., Fairless, C., de Vries, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., and Bresch, D. N.: Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024.
Shepherd, T. G., Boyd, E., Calel, R. A., Chapman, S. C., Dessai, S., Dima-West, I. M., Fowler, H. J., James, R., Maraun, D., Martius, O., Senior, C. A., Sobel, A. H., Stainforth, D. A., Tett, S. F. B., Trenberth, K. E., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Watkins, N. W., Wilby, R. L., and Zenghelis, D. A.: Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change, Clim. Change, 151, 555–571, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9, 2018
Shyrokaya, A., Messori, G., Pechlivanidis, I., Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018–2019 drought in Germany, Environ. Res. Lett., 19, 014037, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d9, 2023.
Sivapalan, M., Konar, M., Srinivasan, V., Chhatre, A., Wutich, A., Scott, C. A., Wescoat, J. L., and Rodríguez-Iturbe, I.: Socio-hydrology: Use-inspired water sustainability science for the Anthropocene, Earth's Future, 2, 225–230, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000164, 2014.
Slater, L. J., Huntingford, C., Pywell, R. F., Redhead, J. W., and Kendon, E. J.: Resilience of UK crop yields to compound climate change, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1377–1396, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1377-2022, 2022.
Soci, C., Hersbach, H., Simmons, A., Poli, P., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Villaume, S., Haimberger, L., Woollen, J., Buontempo, C., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis from 1940 to 2022, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 150, 764, 4014–4048, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4803, 2024.
Sodoge, J., Kuhlicke, C., Mahecha, M. D., and de Brito, M. M.: Text mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 multi-year drought in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024.
Tapiador, F. J. and Navarro, A.: Coupling human dynamics with the physics of climate: a path towards Human Earth Systems Models, Environ. Res. Clim., 3, 043001, https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad7974, 2024.
Thiery, W., Lange, S., Rogelj, J., Schleussner, C.-F., Gudmundsson, L., Seneviratne, S. I., Andrijevic, M., Frieler, K., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Bresch, D. N., Zhao, F., Willner, S. N., Büchner, M., Volkholz, J., Bauer, N., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Dury, M., François, L., Grillakis, M., Gosling, S. N., Hanasaki, N., Hickler, T., Huber, V., Ito, A., Jägermeyr, J., Khabarov, N., Koutroulis, A., Liu, W., Lutz, W., Mengel, M., Müller, C., Ostberg, S., Reyer, C. P. O., Stacke, T., and Wada, Y.: Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes, Science, 374, 158–160, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi7339, 2021
Taniushkina, D., Lukashevich, A., Shevchenko, V., Belalov, I. S., Sotiriadi, N., Narozhnaia, V., Kovalev, K., Krenke, A., Lazarichev, N., Bulkin, A., and Maximov, Y.: Case study on climate change effects and food security in Southeast Asia, Sci. Rep., 14, 16150, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-65140-y, 2024.
United Republic of Tanzania: National Disaster Management Strategy 2022–2027, Prime Minister's Office, Disaster Management Division, 2022.
Van Der Geest, K. and Van Den Berg, R.: Slow-onset events: a review of the evidence from the IPCC Special Reports on Land, Oceans and Cryosphere, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 50, 109–120, 2021.
Wang, N., Sun, F., Yang, S., Feng, Y., Sun, H., and Wang, Z.: Flood fatalities and displacement influence human migration in floodplains of developing countries, Commun. Earth Environ., 6, 319, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02293-2, 2025.
WEF: World Economic Forum: Global Risks Report 2025, https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2025.pdf (last access: 2 July 2025), 2025.
WMO: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water-related Hazards (1970–2021), WMO-No. 1267, https://wmo.int/publication-series/atlas-of-mortality-and-economic-losses-from-weather-climate-and-water-related-hazards-1970-2021 (last access: 2 July 2025), 2023.
Worou, K. and Messori, G.: Compounding droughts and floods amplify socio-economic impacts, Environ. Res. Lett., 20, 104024, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace30e, 2025.
Wang, N., Sun, F., Yang, S., Feng, Y., Sun, H., and Wang, Z.: Flood fatalities and displacement influence human migration in floodplains of developing countries, Commun. Earth Environ., 6, 319, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02293-2, 2025.
Zhao, L., Oleson, K. W., Bou-Zeid, E., Krayenhoff, E. S., Bray, A., Zhu, Q., Zheng, Z., Chen, C., and Oppenheimer, M.: Global multi-model projections of local urban climates, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 152–157, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00958-8, 2021.
Editorial statement
Understanding impacts of climate extremes holds enormous societal and economic value, and is a key step towards climate resilience and adaptation. Notwithstanding recent advances in the field, there are unique challenges which hinder progress beyond the current state-of-the-art. This paper outlines three key challenges and identifies opportunities to address them, providing a pathway to advance interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral research on societal impacts of climate extremes.
Understanding impacts of climate extremes holds enormous societal and economic value, and is a...
Short summary
Understanding impacts of climate extremes is very important for society and the economy. We identify three challenges restricting this understanding: limited availability and quality of impact data, difficulties in understanding why given impacts occur and lack of reliable projections of future impacts. We also identify key opportunities, including newly released datasets, recent methodological and technical advances and interdisciplinary collaborations between the social and natural sciences.
Understanding impacts of climate extremes is very important for society and the economy. We...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint