We analyze storms over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the German Bight and how their statistics change over past, present, and future. We look at data from many different climate model runs that cover a variety of possible future climate states. We find that storms are generally predicted to be weaker in the future, even though the wind directions that typically happen during storms occur more frequently. We also find that the most extreme storms may become more likely than nowadays.

Building numerical models of the Earth is a complex task that scientists and engineers around the world work on. It is important that results are repeatable accurately to help advance science. This study uses a statistical method to reduce errors when comparing two sets of simulations to see if they agree with each other. This approach helps identify if changes made to the model's code result in unexpected or unintended effects.

Many decisions require consistent climate information from seasonal to multi-year timescales. We assess seamless forecasts created by constraining seasonal and decadal predictions and compare them with initialised multi-annual forecasts. Multi-annual predictions provide the highest skill, but constrained forecasts still perform well and offer a low-cost, regularly updatable solution for delivering coherent climate information.

We add a new dynamic component – an ice sheet model simulating the Greenland ice sheet – to an Earth system model that already captures the global climate evolution including ocean, atmosphere, land and sea ice. Under a strong warming scenario, the global warming of 10°C over 250 years is dominating the climate evolution. Changes from the ice-climate interaction are mainly local yet impacting the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet. Hence, ice-climate feedbacks should be considered beyond 2100.

This study explores changes in drought characteristic based on projections by 18 different Earth system models. Their performance is evaluated by comparing historical simulations to observation based reanalysis. The analysis of a standardized drought index under different future scenarios revealed that the harvest area that is projected to experience extreme drought conditions towards the end of this century ranges from 10 % to 40 % depending on the emission scenario.

Climate emulators allow for rapid projections without the computational costs associated with full-scale climate models. Here, we outline a framework to compare a variety of emulation techniques both theoretically and practically through a series of stress tests that expose common sources of emulator error. Our results help clarify which emulators are best suited for different tasks and show how future climate scenarios can be used to support emulator design.

Resilience is a key property of social-ecological and biophysical systems, reflecting their capacity to adapt to change. Ensuring a sustainable future amid climate change depends on Earth System resilience. We propose a model framing resilience physically, linking it to metastable states and energy dissipation. Interactions among Planetary Boundaries, such as CO₂ and aerosol levels, can create dynamic friction that prevents runaway effects, aiding sustainability in the Anthropocene.