Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Miodrag Stevanović
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Jonathan Cornelis Doelman
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the Netherlands
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Louise Parsons Chini
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Jan Volkholz
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Katja Frieler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
George Hurtt
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Florian Humpenöder
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Kristine Karstens
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Jens Heinke
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Christoph Müller
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Jan Philipp Dietrich
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Hermann Lotze-Campen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Elke Stehfest
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the Netherlands
Alexander Popp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Witzenhausen, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Maria Carolina Duran-Rojas, Thais Michele Rosan, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Louise P. Chini, and George C. Hurtt
Biogeosciences, 22, 3547–3561, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3547-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3547-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Indonesia is the world's third-highest carbon emitter from land use change. However, there are uncertainties in the carbon emissions of Indonesia. Our best estimate of carbon emissions from land use change in Indonesia is 0.12 ± 0.02 PgC/yr with a steady trend. Despite many uncertainties created by drivers, models, and products, we also found robust agreements between these models and products. All agree that Indonesian carbon emissions from LULCC (land use and land cover change) have had no decreasing trend for the last 2 decades.
Yue Li, Gang Tang, Eleanor O’Rourke, Samar Minallah, Martim Mas e Braga, Sophie Nowicki, Robin S. Smith, David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Daniele Peano, Gesa Meyer, Birgit Hassler, Jiafu Mao, Yongkang Xue, and Martin Juckes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3207, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Land and Land Ice Theme Opportunities describe a list that contains 25 variable groups with 716 variables, which are potentially available to the broad scientific audience for performing analysis in land-atmosphere coupling, hydrological processes and freshwater systems, glacier and ice sheet mass balance and their influence on the sea levels, land use, and plant phenology.
Konstantin Gregor, Benjamin F. Meyer, Tillmann Gaida, Victor Justo Vasquez, Karina Bett-Williams, Matthew Forrest, João P. Darela-Filho, Sam Rabin, Marcos Longo, Joe R. Melton, Johan Nord, Peter Anthoni, Vladislav Bastrikov, Thomas Colligan, Christine Delire, Michael C. Dietze, George Hurtt, Akihiko Ito, Lasse T. Keetz, Jürgen Knauer, Johannes Köster, Tzu-Shun Lin, Lei Ma, Marie Minvielle, Stefan Olin, Sebastian Ostberg, Hao Shi, Reiner Schnur, Urs Schönenberger, Qing Sun, Peter E. Thornton, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1733, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Geoscientific models are crucial for understanding Earth’s processes. However, they sometimes do not adhere to highest software quality standards, and scientific results are often hard to reproduce due to the complexity of the workflows. Here we gather the expertise of 20 modeling groups and software engineers to define best practices for making geoscientific models maintainable, usable, and reproducible. We conclude with an open-source example serving as a reference for modeling communities.
Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Christian Otto, Jan Volkholz, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Stefanie Heinicke, Colin Jones, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Ryan Heneghan, Derek P. Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Dánnell Quesada Chacón, Kerry Emanuel, Chia-Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Lisa Novak, Inga J. Sauer, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, Michel Bechtold, Robert Reinecke, Inge de Graaf, Jed O. Kaplan, Alexander Koch, and Matthieu Lengaigne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the experiments and data sets necessary to run historic and future impact projections, and the underlying assumptions of future climate change as defined by the 3rd round of the ISIMIP Project (Inter-sectoral Impactmodel Intercomparison Project, isimip.org). ISIMIP provides a framework for cross-sectorally consistent climate impact simulations to contribute to a comprehensive and consistent picture of the world under different climate-change scenarios.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Johanna Braun, Jens Heinke, Sebastian Ostberg, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Fabian Stenzel, Werner von Bloh, Friedhelm Taube, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7889–7914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7889-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach to modelling biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land dynamic global vegetation model. While in the original approach BNF depended on actual evapotranspiration, the new approach considers soil water content and temperature, vertical root distribution, the nitrogen (N) deficit and carbon (C) costs. The new approach improved simulated BNF compared to the scientific literature and the model ability to project future C and N cycle dynamics.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Felix Jäger, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, Michael Windisch, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Christoph Müller, Kanishka Balu Narayan, Ryan Sebastian Padrón, Alexander Popp, Detlef van Vuuren, Michael Wögerer, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1055–1071, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change mitigation strategies developed with socioeconomic models rely on the widespread (re)planting of trees to limit global warming below 2°. However, most of these models neglect climate-driven shifts in forest damage like fires. By assessing existing mitigation scenarios, we show the exposure of projected forestation areas to fire-promoting weather conditions. Our study highlights the problem of ignoring climate-driven shifts in forest damage and ways to address it.
Fabian Stenzel, Johanna Braun, Jannes Breier, Karlheinz Erb, Dieter Gerten, Jens Heinke, Sarah Matej, Sebastian Ostberg, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Wolfgang Lucht
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3235–3258, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3235-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3235-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an R package to compute two biosphere integrity metrics that can be applied to simulations of vegetation growth from the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL. The pressure metric BioCol indicates that we humans modify and extract > 20 % of the potential preindustrial natural biomass production. The ecosystems state metric EcoRisk shows a high risk of ecosystem destabilization in many regions as a result of climate change and land, water, and fertilizer use.
Simon Treu, Sanne Muis, Sönke Dangendorf, Thomas Wahl, Julius Oelsmann, Stefanie Heinicke, Katja Frieler, and Matthias Mengel
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 1121–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-1121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes a reconstruction of monthly coastal water levels from 1900–2015 and hourly data from 1979–2015, both with and without long-term sea level rise. The dataset is based on a combination of three datasets that are focused on different aspects of coastal water levels. Comparison with tide gauge records shows that this combination brings reconstructions closer to the observations compared to the individual datasets.
Stephen Björn Wirth, Arne Poyda, Friedhelm Taube, Britta Tietjen, Christoph Müller, Kirsten Thonicke, Anja Linstädter, Kai Behn, Sibyll Schaphoff, Werner von Bloh, and Susanne Rolinski
Biogeosciences, 21, 381–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), the role of functional diversity in forage supply and soil organic carbon storage of grasslands is not explicitly taken into account. We introduced functional diversity into the Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land (LPJmL) DGVM using CSR theory. The new model reproduced well-known trade-offs between plant traits and can be used to quantify the role of functional diversity in climate change mitigation using different functional diversity scenarios.
Katja Frieler, Jan Volkholz, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, María del Rocío Rivas López, Christian Otto, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Johanna T. Malle, Simon Treu, Christoph Menz, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Yannick Rousseau, Reg A. Watson, Charles Stock, Xiao Liu, Ryan Heneghan, Derek Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Tingting Wang, Fubao Sun, Inga J. Sauer, Johannes Koch, Inne Vanderkelen, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Jida Wang, Fangfang Yao, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala-Zamora, Matthew Forrest, and Michel Bechtold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper provides an overview of all observational climate-related and socioeconomic forcing data used as input for the impact model evaluation and impact attribution experiments within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The experiments are designed to test our understanding of observed changes in natural and human systems and to quantify to what degree these changes have already been induced by climate change.
Weihang Liu, Tao Ye, Christoph Müller, Jonas Jägermeyr, James A. Franke, Haynes Stephens, and Shuo Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7203–7221, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a machine-learning-based crop model emulator with the inputs and outputs of multiple global gridded crop model ensemble simulations to capture the year-to-year variation of crop yield under future climate change. The emulator can reproduce the year-to-year variation of simulated yield given by the crop models under CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations. Developing this emulator can provide a tool to project future climate change impact in a simple way.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3467–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Sebastian Ostberg, Christoph Müller, Jens Heinke, and Sibyll Schaphoff
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3375–3406, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3375-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new toolbox for generating input datasets for terrestrial ecosystem models from diverse and partially conflicting data sources. The toolbox documents the sources and processing of data and is designed to make inconsistencies between source datasets transparent so that users can make their own decisions on how to resolve these should they not be content with our default assumptions. As an example, we use the toolbox to create input datasets at two different spatial resolutions.
Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Stefan Lange, Chantal Hari, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Olaf Conrad, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, and Katja Frieler
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2445–2464, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2445-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first 1 km, daily, global climate dataset for climate impact studies. We show that the high-resolution data have a decreased bias and higher correlation with measurements from meteorological stations than coarser data. The dataset will be of value for a wide range of climate change impact studies both at global and regional level that benefit from using a consistent global dataset.
Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2455–2475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2455-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2455-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a livestock module for the global vegetation model LPJmL5.0 to simulate the impact of grazing dairy cattle on carbon and nitrogen cycles in grasslands. A novelty of the approach is that it accounts for the effect of feed quality on feed uptake and feed utilization by animals. The portioning of dietary nitrogen into milk, feces, and urine shows very good agreement with estimates obtained from animal trials.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Kristine Karstens, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Marta Dondini, Jens Heinke, Matthias Kuhnert, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, Pete Smith, Isabelle Weindl, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Alexander Popp
Biogeosciences, 19, 5125–5149, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5125-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil organic carbon (SOC) has been depleted by anthropogenic land cover change and agricultural management. While SOC models often simulate detailed biochemical processes, the management decisions are still little investigated at the global scale. We estimate that soils have lost around 26 GtC relative to a counterfactual natural state in 1975. Yet, since 1975, SOC has been increasing again by 4 GtC due to a higher productivity, recycling of crop residues and manure, and no-tillage practices.
Malgorzata Golub, Wim Thiery, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Inne Vanderkelen, Daniel Mercado-Bettin, R. Iestyn Woolway, Luke Grant, Eleanor Jennings, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Jacob Schewe, Fang Zhao, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, Vasiliy Y. Bogomolov, Damien Bouffard, Marianne Côté, Raoul-Marie Couture, Andrey V. Debolskiy, Bram Droppers, Gideon Gal, Mingyang Guo, Annette B. G. Janssen, Georgiy Kirillin, Robert Ladwig, Madeline Magee, Tadhg Moore, Marjorie Perroud, Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Love Raaman Vinnaa, Martin Schmid, Tom Shatwell, Victor M. Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Bronwyn Woodward, Huaxia Yao, Rita Adrian, Mathew Allan, Orlane Anneville, Lauri Arvola, Karen Atkins, Leon Boegman, Cayelan Carey, Kyle Christianson, Elvira de Eyto, Curtis DeGasperi, Maria Grechushnikova, Josef Hejzlar, Klaus Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Alo Laas, Eleanor B. Mackay, Ivan Mammarella, Hampus Markensten, Chris McBride, Deniz Özkundakci, Miguel Potes, Karsten Rinke, Dale Robertson, James A. Rusak, Rui Salgado, Leon van der Linden, Piet Verburg, Danielle Wain, Nicole K. Ward, Sabine Wollrab, and Galina Zdorovennova
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4597–4623, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. To better understand how lakes are changing and to project their future behavior amidst various sources of uncertainty, simulations with a range of lake models are required. This in turn requires international coordination across different lake modelling teams worldwide. Here we present a protocol for and results from coordinated simulations of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Lei Ma, George Hurtt, Lesley Ott, Ritvik Sahajpal, Justin Fisk, Rachel Lamb, Hao Tang, Steve Flanagan, Louise Chini, Abhishek Chatterjee, and Joseph Sullivan
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1971–1994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1971-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1971-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global version of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model which can track vegetation 3-D structure and scale up ecological processes from individual vegetation to ecosystem scale. Model evaluation against multiple benchmarking datasets demonstrated the model’s capability to simulate global vegetation dynamics across a range of temporal and spatial scales. With this version, ED has the potential to be linked with remote sensing observations to address key scientific questions.
Vera Porwollik, Susanne Rolinski, Jens Heinke, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Biogeosciences, 19, 957–977, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-957-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study assesses impacts of grass cover crop cultivation on cropland during main-crop off-season periods applying the global vegetation model LPJmL (V.5.0-tillage-cc). Compared to simulated bare-soil fallowing practices, cover crops led to increased soil carbon content and reduced nitrogen leaching rates on the majority of global cropland. Yield responses of main crops following cover crops vary with location, duration of altered management, crop type, water regime, and tillage practice.
Lavinia Baumstark, Nico Bauer, Falk Benke, Christoph Bertram, Stephen Bi, Chen Chris Gong, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Anastasis Giannousakis, Jérôme Hilaire, David Klein, Johannes Koch, Marian Leimbach, Antoine Levesque, Silvia Madeddu, Aman Malik, Anne Merfort, Leon Merfort, Adrian Odenweller, Michaja Pehl, Robert C. Pietzcker, Franziska Piontek, Sebastian Rauner, Renato Rodrigues, Marianna Rottoli, Felix Schreyer, Anselm Schultes, Bjoern Soergel, Dominika Soergel, Jessica Strefler, Falko Ueckerdt, Elmar Kriegler, and Gunnar Luderer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6571–6603, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6571-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6571-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the new and open-source version 2.1 of the REgional Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND) with the aim of improving code documentation and transparency. REMIND is an integrated assessment model (IAM) of the energy-economic system. By answering questions like
Can the world keep global warming below 2 °C?and, if so,
Under what socio-economic conditions and applying what technological options?, it is the goal of REMIND to explore consistent transformation pathways.
Abhijeet Mishra, Florian Humpenöder, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Brent Sohngen, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Alexander Popp
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6467–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6467-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Timber plantations are an increasingly important source of roundwood production, next to harvest from natural forests. However, timber plantations are currently underrepresented in global land-use models. Here, we include timber production and plantations in the MAgPIE modeling framework. This allows one to capture the competition for land between agriculture and forestry. We show that increasing timber plantations in the coming decades partly compete with cropland for limited land resources.
Tobias Herzfeld, Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, and Christoph Müller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1037–1055, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1037-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1037-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soil organic carbon sequestration on cropland has been proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy. We simulate different agricultural management practices under climate change scenarios using a global biophysical model. We find that at the global aggregated level, agricultural management practices are not capable of enhancing total carbon storage in the soil, yet for some climate regions, we find that there is potential to enhance the carbon content in cropland soils.
Louise Chini, George Hurtt, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Stephen Sitch, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Lei Ma, Lesley Ott, Julia Pongratz, and Benjamin Poulter
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4175–4189, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4175-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon emissions from land-use change are a large and uncertain component of the global carbon cycle. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset was developed as an input to carbon and climate simulations and has been updated annually for the Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2 updates and describe the 2019 version which used new cropland and grazing land data inputs for the globally important region of Brazil.
Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Stefan Lange, and Katja Frieler
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5269–5284, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5269-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
To identify the impacts of historical climate change it is necessary to separate the effect of the different impact drivers. To address this, one needs to compare historical impacts to a counterfactual world with impacts that would have been without climate change. We here present an approach that produces counterfactual climate data and can be used in climate impact models to simulate counterfactual impacts. We make these data available through the ISIMIP project.
Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Louise Chini, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Felix Havermann, George C. Hurtt, Tammas Loughran, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 763–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we model the relative importance of several contributors to the land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) flux based on a LULCC dataset including uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty of LULCC is as relevant as applying wood harvest and gross transitions for the cumulative LULCC flux over the industrial period. However, LULCC uncertainty matters less than the other two factors for the LULCC flux in 2014; historical LULCC uncertainty is negligible for estimates of future scenarios.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Yvonne Jans, Werner von Bloh, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Christoph Müller
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2027–2044, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2027-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To analyze the global cotton production and irrigation water consumption under spatially varying present and future climatic conditions, we use the global terrestrial biosphere model LPJmL. Our simulation results suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated [CO2] on cotton yields overcompensate yield losses from direct climate change impacts, i.e., without the beneficial effect of [CO2] fertilization.
Bruno Ringeval, Christoph Müller, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Philippe Ciais, Christian Folberth, Wenfeng Liu, Philippe Debaeke, and Sylvain Pellerin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1639–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We assess how and why global gridded crop models (GGCMs) differ in their simulation of potential yield. We build a GCCM emulator based on generic formalism and fit its parameters against aboveground biomass and yield at harvest simulated by eight GGCMs. Despite huge differences between GGCMs, we show that the calibration of a few key parameters allows the emulator to reproduce the GGCM simulations. Our simple but mechanistic model could help to improve the global simulation of potential yield.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Petra Lasch-Born, Felicitas Suckow, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Martin Gutsch, Chris Kollas, Franz-Werner Badeck, Harald K. M. Bugmann, Rüdiger Grote, Cornelia Fürstenau, Marcus Lindner, and Jörg Schaber
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5311–5343, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5311-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5311-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The process-based model 4C has been developed to study climate impacts on forests and is now freely available as an open-source tool. This paper provides a comprehensive description of the 4C version (v2.2) for scientific users of the model and presents an evaluation of 4C. The evaluation focused on forest growth, carbon water, and heat fluxes. We conclude that 4C is widely applicable, reliable, and ready to be released to the scientific community to use and further develop the model.
James A. Franke, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, Alex C. Ruane, Jonas Jägermeyr, Abigail Snyder, Marie Dury, Pete D. Falloon, Christian Folberth, Louis François, Tobias Hank, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Ingrid Jacquemin, Curtis Jones, Michelle Li, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Meridel Phillips, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Karina Williams, Ziwei Wang, Florian Zabel, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3995–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Improving our understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop yields will be critical for global food security in the next century. The models often used to study the how climate change may impact agriculture are complex and costly to run. In this work, we describe a set of global crop model emulators (simplified models) developed under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. Crop model emulators make agricultural simulations more accessible to policy or decision makers.
Femke Lutz, Stephen Del Grosso, Stephen Ogle, Stephen Williams, Sara Minoli, Susanne Rolinski, Jens Heinke, Jetse J. Stoorvogel, and Christoph Müller
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3905–3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3905-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Previous findings have shown deviations between the LPJmL5.0-tillage model and results from meta-analyses on global estimates of tillage effects on N2O emissions. By comparing model results with observational data of four experimental sites and outputs from field-scale DayCent model simulations, we show that advancing information on agricultural management, as well as the representation of soil moisture dynamics, improves LPJmL5.0-tillage and the estimates of tillage effects on N2O emissions.
Cited articles
Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M. D., Dislich, C., Dodson, J. R., Engström, K., and Moran, D.: Drivers for global agricultural land use change: The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy, Glob. Environ. Change, 35, 138–147, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08.011, 2015. a, b
Alexander, P., Prestele, R., Verburg, P. H., Arneth, A., Baranzelli, C., Batista e Silva, F., Brown, C., Butler, A., Calvin, K., Dendoncker, N., Doelman, J. C., Dunford, R., Engström, K., Eitelberg, D., Fujimori, S., Harrison, P. A., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Holzhauer, S., Humpenöder, F., Jacobs-Crisioni, C., Jain, A. K., Krisztin, T., Kyle, P., Lavalle, C., Lenton, T., Liu, J., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Powell, T., Sands, R. D., Schaldach, R., Stehfest, E., Steinbuks, J., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., Wise, M. A., and Rounsevell, M. D.: Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections, Glob. Change Biol., 23, 767–781, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13447, 2017. a, b
Arets, E., Van der Meer, P., Verwer, C., Hengeveld, G., Tolkamp, G., Nabuurs, G., and Van Oorschot, M.: Global wood production: assessment of industrial round wood supply from forest management systems in different global regions, Tech. Rep., Alterra Wageningen UR, No. 1808, ISSN (Print): 1566-7197, 2011. a
Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Emmerling, J., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Hilaire, J., Eom, J., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Mouratiadou, I., Sytze de Boer, H., van den Berg, M., Carrara, S., Daioglou, V., Drouet, L., Edmonds, J. E., Gernaat, D., Havlik, P., Johnson, N., Klein, D., Kyle, P., Marangoni, G., Masui, T., Pietzcker, R. C., Strubegger, M., Wise, M., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives, Glob. Environ. Change, 42, 316–330, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006, 2017. a
Behnassi, M., Gupta, H., Baig, M. B., and Noorka, I. R.: The Food Security, Biodiversity, and Climate Nexus-Introduction, in: The Food Security, Biodiversity, and Climate Nexus, Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12586-7_1, 2022. a
Beusen, A. H. W., Van Beek, L. P. H., Bouwman, A. F., Mogollón, J. M., and Middelburg, J. J.: Coupling global models for hydrology and nutrient loading to simulate nitrogen and phosphorus retention in surface water – description of IMAGE–GNM and analysis of performance, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 4045–4067, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4045-2015, 2015. a
Boitt, M. K., Langat, F. C., and Kapoi, J. K.: Geospatial agro-climatic characterization for assessment of potential agricultural areas in Somalia, Africa, J. Agric. Inform., 9, 18–35, https://doi.org/10.17700/jai.2018.9.3.479, 2018. a
Bond, W. J.: Out of the shadows: ecology of open ecosystems, Plant Ecol. Div., 14, 205–222, https://doi.org/10.1080/17550874.2022.2034065, 2021. a
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., Denvil, S., Deshayes, J., Devilliers, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J. L., Dupont, E., Éthé, C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Flavoni, S., Foujols, M. A., Gardoll, S., Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Grandpeix, J. Y., Guenet, B., Guez, Lionel, E., Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Levavasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S., Madec, G., Madeleine, J. B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rochetin, N., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thiéblemont, R., Traore, A. K., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Climate Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020. a
Bouwman, A., Van der Hoek, K., Eickhout, B., and Soenario, I.: Exploring changes in world ruminant production systems, Agr. Syst., 84, 121–153, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2004.05.006, 2005. a
Calvin, K. and Fisher-Vanden, K.: Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: An inter-method comparison, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 767–781, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AA843C, 2017. a
Calvin, K., Cowie, A., Berndes, G., Arneth, A., Cherubini, F., Portugal-Pereira, J., Grassi, G., House, J., Johnson, F. X., Popp, A., Rounsevell, M., Slade, R., and Smith, P.: Bioenergy for climate change mitigation: Scale and sustainability, GCB Bioenergy, 13, 1346–1371, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12863, 2021. a
Calvin, K. V., Beach, R., Gurgel, A., Labriet, M., and Loboguerrero Rodriguez, A. M.: Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America, Energ. Econ., 56, 615–624, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.020, 2014. a
Dietrich, J. P., Bodirsky, B. L., Humpenöder, F., Weindl, I., Stevanović, M., Karstens, K., Kreidenweis, U., Wang, X., Mishra, A., Klein, D., Ambrósio, G., Araujo, E., Yalew, A. W., Baumstark, L., Wirth, S., Giannousakis, A., Beier, F., Meng-Chuen Chen, D., Lotze-Campen, H., and Popp, A.: MAgPIE 4-a modular open-source framework for modeling global land systems, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1299–1317, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1299-2019, 2019. a, b
Dietrich, J. P., Bodirsky, B. L., Weindl, I., Humpenöder, F., Stevanovic, M., Kreidenweis, U., Wang, X., Karstens, K., Mishra, A., Beier, F. D., Molina Bacca, E. J., von Jeetze, P., Windisch, M., Crawford, M. S., Klein, D., Singh, V., Ambr sio, G., Araujo, E., Biewald, A., Lotze-Campen, H., and Popp, A.: MAgPIE – An Open Source land-use modeling framework – Version 4.4.0, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1418752, 2021. a, b
Dietrich, J. P., Bodirsky, B. L., Bonsch, M., Patrick, von Jeetze, Kreidenweiss, U., Hennig, R. J., and Humpenoeder, F.: luscale: PIK Landuse Group Data Scaling Tools, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1158584, 2024. a
Doelman, J. C., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., Lassaletta, L., Gernaat, D. E., Hermans, K., Harmsen, M., Daioglou, V., Biemans, H., van der Sluis, S., and van Vuuren, D.: Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model: Regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation, Glob. Environ. Change, 48, 119–135, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.014, 2018. a, b, c
Doelman, J. C., Beier, F. D., Stehfest, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Beusen, A. H., Humpenöder, F., Mishra, A., Popp, A., Van Vuuren, D. P., De Vos, L., Weindl, I., Van Zeist, W. J., and Kram, T.: Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the global water-land-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 045004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5766, 2022. a, b
Donovan, V. M., Wonkka, C. L., and Twidwell, D.: Surging wildfire activity in a grassland biome, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 5986–5993, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072901, 2017. a
Dunne, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Adcroft, A. J., Ginoux, P., Held, I. M., John, J. G., Krasting, J. P., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Shevliakova, E., Stock, C. A., Zadeh, N., Balaji, V., Blanton, C., Dunne, K. A., Dupuis, C., Durachta, J., Dussin, R., Gauthier, P. P., Griffies, S. M., Guo, H., Hallberg, R. W., Harrison, M., He, J., Hurlin, W., McHugh, C., Menzel, R., Milly, P. C., Nikonov, S., Paynter, D. J., Ploshay, J., Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Reichl, B. G., Robinson, T., Schwarzkopf, D. M., Sentman, L. T., Underwood, S., Vahlenkamp, H., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B., Zeng, Y., and Zhao, M.: The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM 4.1): Overall Coupled Model Description and Simulation Characteristics, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS002015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002015, 2020. a
Foley, J. A., DeFries, R., Asner, G. P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S. R., Chapin, F. S., Coe, M. T., Daily, G. C., Gibbs, H. K., Helkowski, J. H., Holloway, T., Howard, E. A., Kucharik, C. J., Monfreda, C., Patz, J. A., Prentice, I. C., Ramankutty, N., and Snyder, P. K.: Global consequences of land use, Science, 309, 570–574, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1111772, 2005. a
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: FAOSTAT, Land Use, FAO [data set], https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL (last access: 23 May 2025), 2024. a
Frieler, K., Lange, S., Piontek, F., Reyer, C. P. O., Schewe, J., Warszawski, L., Zhao, F., Chini, L., Denvil, S., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Halladay, K., Hurtt, G., Mengel, M., Murakami, D., Ostberg, S., Popp, A., Riva, R., Stevanovic, M., Suzuki, T., Volkholz, J., Burke, E., Ciais, P., Ebi, K., Eddy, T. D., Elliott, J., Galbraith, E., Gosling, S. N., Hattermann, F., Hickler, T., Hinkel, J., Hof, C., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Krysanova, V., Marcé, R., Müller Schmied, H., Mouratiadou, I., Pierson, D., Tittensor, D. P., Vautard, R., van Vliet, M., Biber, M. F., Betts, R. A., Bodirsky, B. L., Deryng, D., Frolking, S., Jones, C. D., Lotze, H. K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sahajpal, R., Thonicke, K., Tian, H., and Yamagata, Y.: Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b), Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321–4345, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017, 2017. a, b, c
Fu, B., Li, B., Gasser, T., Tao, S., Ciais, P., Piao, S., Balkanski, Y., Li, W., Yin, T., Han, L., Han, Y., Peng, S., and Xu, J.: The contributions of individual countries and regions to the global radiative forcing, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2018211118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2018211118, 2021. a
Fu, J., Jian, Y., Wang, X., Li, L., Ciais, P., Zscheischler, J., Wang, Y., Tang, Y., Müller, C., Webber, H., Yang, B., Wu, Y., Wang, Q., Cui, X., Huang, W., Liu, Y., Zhao, P., Piao, S., and Zhou, F.: Extreme rainfall reduces one-twelfth of China’s rice yield over the last two decades, Nature Food, 4, 416–426, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00753-6, 2023. a
Fujimori, S., Masui, T., and Matsuoka, Y.: AIM/CGE [basic] Manual. Discussion Paper Series No. 2012-01, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, NIES, 2012. a
Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Masui, T., and Takahashi, K.: Land use representation in a global CGE model for long-term simulation: CET vs. logit functions, Food Secur., 6, 685–699, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-014-0375-z, 2014. a
Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Masui, T., Takahashi, K., Herran, D. S., Dai, H., Hijioka, Y., and Kainuma, M.: SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Glob. Environ. Change, 42, 268–283, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.009, 2017. a
Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Ito, A., Takahashi, K., and Masui, T.: Global land-use allocation model linked to an integrated assessment model, Sci. Total Environ., 580, 787–796, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.025, 2017. a
Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Havlík, P., Valin, H., Bodirsky, B. L., Doelman, J. C., Fellmann, T., Kyle, P., Koopman, J. F., Lotze-Campen, H., Mason-D’Croz, D., Ochi, Y., Pérez Domínguez, I., Stehfest, E., Sulser, T. B., Tabeau, A., Takahashi, K., Takakura, J., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W. J., Wiebe, K., and Witzke, P.: Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 699–703, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x, 2018. a
Hattermann, F. F., Vetter, T., Breuer, L., Su, B., Daggupati, P., Donnelly, C., Fekete, B., Florke, F., Gosling, S. N., Hoffmann, P., Liersch, S., Masaki, Y., Motovilov, Y., Muller, C., Samaniego, L., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., Yang, T., and Krysnaova, V.: Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: A cross-scale study, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 015006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9938, 2018. a
Hirata, A., Ohashi, H., Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Takahashi, K., Tsuchiya, K., and Matsui, T.: The choice of land-based climate change mitigation measures in fl uences future global biodiversity loss, Commun. Earth Environ., 5, 259, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01433-4, 2024. a, b
Hoffmann, P., Reinhart, V., Rechid, D., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Davin, E. L., Asmus, C., Bechtel, B., Böhner, J., Katragkou, E., and Luyssaert, S.: High-resolution land use and land cover dataset for regional climate modelling: historical and future changes in Europe, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3819–3852, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3819-2023, 2023. a
Hurtt, G., Chini, L., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Fisk, J., Fujimori, S., Goldewijk, K. K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heinimann, A., Humpenöder, F., Jungclaus, J., Kaplan, J., Krisztin, T., Lawrence, D., Lawrence, P., Mertz, O., Pongratz, J., Popp, A., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Stehfest, E., Thornton, P., van Vuuren, D., and Zhang, X.: Harmonization of Global Land Use Change and Management for the Period 2015–2300, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.10468, 2019. a, b, c
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Fisk, J., Fujimori, S., Klein Goldewijk, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heinimann, A., Humpenöder, F., Jungclaus, J., Kaplan, J. O., Kennedy, J., Krisztin, T., Lawrence, D., Lawrence, P., Ma, L., Mertz, O., Pongratz, J., Popp, A., Poulter, B., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Stehfest, E., Thornton, P., Tubiello, F. N., van Vuuren, D. P., and Zhang, X.: Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020. a, b, c
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Lee, H. and Romero, J., Geneva, Switzerland, 1–34, https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001, 2023. a, b, c
Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Ruane, A. C., Elliott, J., Balkovic, J., Castillo, O., Faye, B., Foster, I., Folberth, C., Franke, J. A., Fuchs, K., Guarin, J. R., Heinke, J., Hoogenboom, G., Iizumi, T., Jain, A. K., Kelly, D., Khabarov, N., Lange, S., Lin, T.-S., Liu, W., Mialyk, O., Minoli, S., Moyer, E. J., Okada, M., Phillips, M., Porter, C., Rabin, S. S., Scheer, C., Schneider, J. M., Schyns, J. F., Skalsky, R., Smerald, A., Stella, T., Stephens, H., Webber, H., Zabel, F., and Rosenzweig, C.: Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models, Nature Food, 2, 873–885, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y, 2021. a, b, c
Kim, D. G. and Kirschbaum, M. U.: The effect of land-use change on the net exchange rates of greenhouse gases: A compilation of estimates, Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 208, 114–126, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2015.04.026, 2015. a
Kim, H. and Grafakos, S.: Which are the factors influencing the integration of mitigation and adaptation in climate change plans in Latin American cities?, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 105008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2f4c, 2019. a
Lambin, E. F. and Meyfroidt, P.: Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 3465–3472, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100480108, 2011. a
Lambin, E. F., Turner, B. L., Geist, H. J., Agbola, S. B., Angelsen, A., Bruce, J. W., Coomes, O. T., Dirzo, R., Fischer, G., Folke, C., George, P. S., Homewood, K., Imbernon, J., Leemans, R., Li, X., Moran, E. F., Mortimore, M., Ramakrishnan, P. S., Richards, J. F., Skånes, H., Steffen, W., Stone, G. D., Svedin, U., Veldkamp, T. A., Vogel, C., and Xu, J.: The causes of land-use and land-cover change: Moving beyond the myths, Glob. Enviro. Change, 11, 261–269, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00007-3, 2001. a
Lange, S.: ISIMIP3b bias adjustment fact sheet, Tech. rep., The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), https://www.isimip.org/documents/413/ISIMIP3b_bias_adjustment_fact_sheet_Gnsz7CO.pdf (last access: 26 May 2025), 2021. a
Lassaletta, L., Estellés, F., Beusen, A. H., Bouwman, L., Calvet, S., Van Grinsven, H. J., Doelman, J. C., Stehfest, E., Uwizeye, A., and Westhoek, H.: Future global pig production systems according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Sci. Total Environ., 665, 739–751, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.079, 2019. a
Luyssaert, S., Jammet, M., Stoy, P. C., Estel, S., Pongratz, J., Ceschia, E., Churkina, G., Don, A., Erb, K., Ferlicoq, M., Gielen, B., Grünwald, T., Houghton, R. A., Klumpp, K., Knohl, A., Kolb, T., Kuemmerle, T., Laurila, T., Lohila, A., Loustau, D., McGrath, M. J., Meyfroidt, P., Moors, E. J., Naudts, K., Novick, K., Otto, J., Pilegaard, K., Pio, C. A., Rambal, S., Rebmann, C., Ryder, J., Suyker, A. E., Varlagin, A., Wattenbach, M., and Dolman, A. J.: Land management and land-cover change have impacts of similar magnitude on surface temperature, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 389–393, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2196, 2014. a
Lèclere, D., Obersteiner, M., Barrett, M., Butchart, S. H., Chaudhary, A., De Palma, A., DeClerck, F. A., Di Marco, M., Doelman, J. C., Dürauer, M., Freeman, R., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J. P., Hill, S. L., Humpenöder, F., Jennings, N., Krisztin, T., Mace, G. M., Ohashi, H., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Schipper, A. M., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., van Zeist, W. J., Visconti, P., Alkemade, R., Almond, R., Bunting, G., Burgess, N. D., Cornell, S. E., Di Fulvio, F., Ferrier, S., Fritz, S., Fujimori, S., Grooten, M., Harwood, T., Havlík, P., Herrero, M., Hoskins, A. J., Jung, M., Kram, T., Lotze-Campen, H., Matsui, T., Meyer, C., Nel, D., Newbold, T., Schmidt-Traub, G., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B. B., van Vuuren, D. P., Ware, C., Watson, J. E., Wu, W., and Young, L.: Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy, Nature, 585, 551–556, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y, 2020. a
Ma, L., Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L. P., Sahajpal, R., Pongratz, J., Frolking, S., Stehfest, E., Klein Goldewijk, K., O'Leary, D., and Doelman, J. C.: Global rules for translating land-use change (LUH2) to land-cover change for CMIP6 using GLM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3203–3220, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3203-2020, 2020. a
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Wang, R. H. J.: The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020. a
Mendelsohn, R. and Dinar, A.: Land Use and Climate Change Interactions, Annu. Rev. Resour. Econ., 1, 309–332, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.resource.050708.144246, 2009. a
Merfort, L., Bauer, N., Humpenöder, F., Klein, D., Strefler, J., Popp, A., Luderer, G., and Kriegler, E.: Bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 685–692, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01697-2, 2023. a
Mishra, A., Humpenöder, F., Dietrich, J. P., Bodirsky, B. L., Sohngen, B., P. O. Reyer, C., Lotze-Campen, H., and Popp, A.: Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.5, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6467–6494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6467-2021, 2021. a
Molina Bacca, E. J., Stevanović, M., Bodirsky, B. L., Karstens, K., Meng, D., Chen, C., Leip, D., Müller, C., Minoli, S., Heinke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Folberth, C., Iizumi, T., Jain, A. K., Liu, W., Okada, M., Smerald, A., Zabel, F., Lotze-Campen, H., and Popp, A.: Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming, Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z, 2023. a, b
Molina Bacca, E. J.: ISIMIP 3b, Land Use Models outputs intercomparison, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12964394, 2024a. a
Molina Bacca, E. J.: ISIMIP 3b, Land Use Models outputs intercomparison – Plotting scripts, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12964533, 2024b. a
Müller, C.: LPJmL4 Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) simulations for use in MAgPIE for ISIMIP3 scenarios, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11185641, 2024. a
Müller, C.: LPJmL5 agricultural system simulations for use in MAgPIE for ISIMIP3 scenarios, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11243834, 2024. a
Müller, C., Franke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Ruane, A. C., Elliott, J., Moyer, E., Heinke, J., Falloon, P. D., Folberth, C., Francois, L., Hank, T., Izaurralde, R. C., Jacquemin, I., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T. A., Williams, K., and Zabel, F.: Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 034040, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd8fc, 2021. a
Müller, W. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Mauritsen, T., Baehr, J., Bittner, M., Budich, R., Bunzel, F., Esch, M., Ghosh, R., Haak, H., Ilyina, T., Kleine, T., Kornblueh, L., Li, H., Modali, K., Notz, D., Pohlmann, H., Roeckner, E., Stemmler, I., Tian, F., and Marotzke, J.: A Higher-resolution Version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR), J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 1383–1413, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001217, 2018. a
Myers, N., Mittermeler, R. A., Mittermeler, C. G., Da Fonseca, G. A., and Kent, J.: Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities, Nature, 403, 853–858, https://doi.org/10.1038/35002501, 2000. a
Nazarian, N., Krayenhoff, E. S., Bechtel, B., Hondula, D. M., Paolini, R., Vanos, J., Cheung, T., Chow, W. T., de Dear, R., Jay, O., Lee, J. K., Martilli, A., Middel, A., Norford, L. K., Sadeghi, M., Schiavon, S., and Santamouris, M.: Integrated Assessment of Urban Overheating Impacts on Human Life, Earth's Future, 10, e2022EF002682, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002682, 2022. a
Nelson, G. C., Valin, H., Sands, R. D., Havlík, P., Ahammad, H., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., Von Lampe, M., Lotze-Campen, H., Mason D'Croz, D., Van Meijl, H., Van Der Mensbrugghe, D., Müller, C., Popp, A., Robertson, R., Robinson, S., Schmid, E., Schmitz, C., Tabeau, A., and Willenbockel, D.: Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3274–3279, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222465110, 2014. a, b
Neuendorf, F., Thiele, J., Albert, C., and von Haaren, C.: Uncertainties in land use data may have substantial effects on environmental planning recommendations: A plea for careful consideration, PLoS ONE, 16, e0260302, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260302, 2021. a, b
Nishina, K., Ito, A., Falloon, P., Friend, A. D., Beerling, D. J., Ciais, P., Clark, D. B., Kahana, R., Kato, E., Lucht, W., Lomas, M., Pavlick, R., Schaphoff, S., Warszawaski, L., and Yokohata, T.: Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem simulations using the ISI-MIP results, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, 2015. a
Oliver, T. H. and Morecroft, M. D.: Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity: Attribution problems, risks, and opportunities, WIRES Clim. Change, 5, 317–335, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.271, 2014. a
Pongratz, J., Dolman, H., Don, A., Erb, K. H., Fuchs, R., Herold, M., Jones, C., Kuemmerle, T., Luyssaert, S., Meyfroidt, P., and Naudts, K.: Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities in implementing land management in Earth system models, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 1470–1487, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13988, 2018. a
Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Weindl, I., Bodirsky, B. L., Bonsch, M., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Biewald, A., Rolinski, S., Stevanovic, M., and Dietrich, J. P.: Land-use protection for climate change mitigation, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 1095–1098, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2444, 2014a. a
Popp, A., Rose, S. K., Calvin, K., Van Vuuren, D. P., Dietrich, J. P., Wise, M., Stehfest, E., Humpenöder, F., Kyle, P., Van Vliet, J., Bauer, N., Lotze-Campen, H., Klein, D., and Kriegler, E.: Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: Model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options, Climatic Change, 123, 495–509, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0926-x, 2014b. a, b
Popp, A., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Stehfest, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Dietrich, J. P., Doelmann, J. C., Gusti, M., Hasegawa, T., Kyle, P., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., Takahashi, K., Valin, H., Waldhoff, S., Weindl, I., Wise, M., Kriegler, E., Lotze-Campen, H., Fricko, O., Riahi, K., and Vuuren, D. P.: Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways, Glob. Environ. Change, 42, 331–345, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Prestele, R., Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M. D., Arneth, A., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Eitelberg, D. A., Engström, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Jain, A. K., Krisztin, T., Kyle, P., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Sands, R. D., Schaldach, R., Schüngel, J., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A., Van Meijl, H., Van Vliet, J., and Verburg, P. H.: Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison, Glob. Change Biol., 22, 3967–3983, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13337, 2016. a, b
Qiu, Y., Feng, J., Yan, Z., and Wang, J.: Assessing the land-use harmonization (LUH) 2 dataset in Central Asia for regional climate model projection, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 064008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/accfb2, 2023. a
R Core Team: R core team (2021), R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 26 May 2025), 2021. a
Reyer, C. P., Adams, S., Albrecht, T., Baarsch, F., Boit, A., Canales Trujillo, N., Cartsburg, M., Coumou, D., Eden, A., Fernandes, E., Langerwisch, F., Marcus, R., Mengel, M., Mira-Salama, D., Perette, M., Pereznieto, P., Rammig, A., Reinhardt, J., Robinson, A., Rocha, M., Sakschewski, B., Schaeffer, M., Schleussner, C. F., Serdeczny, O., and Thonicke, K.: Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development, Reg. Environ. Change, 17, 1601–1621, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0854-6, 2017. a
Rose, S. K., Popp, A., Fujimori, S., Havlik, P., Weyant, J., Wise, M., van Vuuren, D., Brunelle, T., Cui, R. Y., Daioglou, V., Frank, S., Hasegawa, T., Humpenöder, F., Kato, E., Sands, R. D., Sano, F., Tsutsui, J., Doelman, J., Muratori, M., Prudhomme, R., Wada, K., and Yamamoto, H.: Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system, Climatic Change, 172, 27 pp., https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03336-9, 2022. a
Rosenzweig, C., Arnell, N. W., Ebi, K. L., Lotze-Campen, H., Raes, F., Rapley, C., Smith, M. S., Cramer, W., Frieler, K., Reyer, C. P., Schewe, J., Van Vuuren, D., and Warszawski, L.: Assessing inter-sectoral climate change risks: The role of ISIMIP, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 010301, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/010301, 2017. a
Roy, P. S., Ramachandran, R. M., Paul, O., Thakur, P. K., Ravan, S., Behera, M. D., Sarangi, C., and Kanawade, V. P.: Anthropogenic Land Use and Land Cover Changes – A Review on Its Environmental Consequences and Climate Change, J. Indian Soc. Remot., 50, 1615–1640, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-022-01569-w, 2022. a
Schindler, D. W.: Recent advances in the understanding and management of eutrophication, Limnol. Oceanogr., 51, 356–363, https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2006.51.1_part_2.0356, 2006. a
Schmitz, C., van Meijl, H., Kyle, P., Nelson, G. C., Fujimori, S., Gurgel, A., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., d'Croz, D. M., Popp, A., Sands, R., Tabeau, A., van der Mensbrugghe, D., von Lampe, M., Wise, M., Blanc, E., Hasegawa, T., Kavallari, A., and Valin, H.: Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison, Agr. Econ., 45, 69–84, https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12090, 2014. a, b, c, d
Sellar, A. A., Jones, C. G., Mulcahy, J. P., Tang, Y., Yool, A., Wiltshire, A., O'Connor, F. M., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Palmieri, J., Woodward, S., de Mora, L., Kuhlbrodt, T., Rumbold, S. T., Kelley, D. I., Ellis, R., Johnson, C. E., Walton, J., Abraham, N. L., Andrews, M. B., Andrews, T., Archibald, A. T., Berthou, S., Burke, E., Blockley, E., Carslaw, K., Dalvi, M., Edwards, J., Folberth, G. A., Gedney, N., Griffiths, P. T., Harper, A. B., Hendry, M. A., Hewitt, A. J., Johnson, B., Jones, A., Jones, C. D., Keeble, J., Liddicoat, S., Morgenstern, O., Parker, R. J., Predoi, V., Robertson, E., Siahaan, A., Smith, R. S., Swaminathan, R., Woodhouse, M. T., Zeng, G., and Zerroukat, M.: UKESM1: Description and Evaluation of the U.K. Earth System Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4513–4558, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001739, 2019. a
Shah, N. W., Baillie, B. R., Bishop, K., Ferraz, S., Högbom, L., and Nettles, J.: The effects of forest management on water quality, Forest Ecol. Manag., 522, 120397, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120397, 2022. a
Siebert, S., Kummu, M., Porkka, M., Döll, P., Ramankutty, N., and Scanlon, B. R.: A global data set of the extent of irrigated land from 1900 to 2005, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1521–1545, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1521-2015, 2015. a
Singh, V., Stevanović, M., Jha, C. K., Beier, F., Ghosh, R. K., Lotze-Campen, H., and Popp, A.: Assessing policy options for sustainable water use in India’s cereal production system, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 094073, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf9b6, 2023. a
Sörgel, B., Rauner, S., Daioglou, V., Weindl, I., Mastrucci, A., Carrer, F., Kikstra, J., Ambrósio, G., Aguiar, A. P. D., Baumstark, Bodirsky, B. L., Bos, A., Dietrich, J. P., Dirnaichner, A., Doelman, J. C., Hasse, R., Hernandez, A., Hoppe, J., Humpenöder, F., Iacobuţă, G. I., Keppler, D., Koch, J., Luderer, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Pehl, M., Poblete-Cazenave, M., Popp, A., Remy, M., van Zeist, W.-J., Cornell, S., Dombrowsky, I., Hertwich, E. G., Schmidt, F., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., and Kriegler, E.: Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets, Environ. Res. Lett., 19, 124009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad80af, 2024. a
Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D., Kram, T., Bouwman, L., Alkemade, R., Bakkenes, M., Biemans, H., Bowman, A., den Elzen, M., Janse, J., Lucas, P., van Minnen, J., Müller, C. P., and Gerdien, A. : Integrated assessment of global environmental change with IMAGE 3.0 model description and policy applications, Tech. rep., PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, https://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/ (last access: 26 May 2025), 2014. a, b, c, d
Stehfest, E., Van Zeist, W.-J., Valin, H., Havlik, P., Popp, A., Kyle, P., Tabeau, A., Mason-D'croz, D., Hasegawa, T., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Fujimori, S., Humpenöder, F., Lotze-Campen, H., Van Meijl, H., and Wiebe, K.: Key determinants of global land-use projections, Nat. Commun., 10, 2166, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w, 2019. a, b
Su, F., Liu, Y., Chen, L., Orozbaev, R., and Tan, L.: Impact of climate change on food security in the Central Asian countries, Sci. China Earth Sci., 67, 268–280, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-022-1198-4, 2024. a
Thompson, M. P. and Calkin, D. E.: Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: A review, J. Environ. Manag., 92, 1895–1909, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.03.015, 2011. a
Toreti, A., Deryng, D., Tubiello, F. N., Müller, C., Kimball, B. A., Moser, G., Boote, K., Asseng, S., Pugh, T. A., Vanuytrecht, E., Pleijel, H., Webber, H., Durand, J. L., Dentener, F., Ceglar, A., Wang, X., Badeck, F., Lecerf, R., Wall, G. W., van den Berg, M., Hoegy, P., Lopez-Lozano, R., Zampieri, M., Galmarini, S., O’Leary, G. J., Manderscheid, R., Mencos Contreras, E., and Rosenzweig, C.: Narrowing uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO2 on crops, Nature Food, 1, 775–782, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00195-4, 2020. a
Van vuuren, D., Stehfest, E., Gernaat, D., de Boer, H. S., Daioglou, V., Doelman, J., Edelenbosch, O., Harmsen, M., Van zeist, W.-J., van den Berg, M., Dafnomilis, I., van Sluisveld, M., Tabeau, A., de Vos, L., de Waal, L., van den Berg, N., Beusen, A., Bos, A., Biemans, H., Bouwman, L., Chen, H.-H., Deetman, S., Dagnachew, A., Hof, A., van Meijl, H., Meyer, J., Mikropoulos, S., Roelfsema, M., Schipper, A., van Soest, H., Tagomori, I., and Zapata, V.: The 2021 SSP scenarios of the IMAGE 3.2 model, Tech. Rep., PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, https://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/the-2021-ssp-scenarios-of-the-image-32-model (last access: 26 May 2025), 2021. a, b
Veerkamp, C. J., Dunford, R. W., Harrison, P. A., Mandryk, M., Priess, J. A., Schipper, A. M., Stehfest, E., and Alkemade, R.: Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models, Reg. Environ. Change, 20, 103, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01685-8, 2020. a
Vetter, T., Huang, S., Aich, V., Yang, T., Wang, X., Krysanova, V., and Hattermann, F.: Multi-model climate impact assessment and intercomparison for three large-scale river basins on three continents, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 17–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-17-2015, 2015. a
Wang, X., Xu, M., Lin, B., Bodirsky, B. L., Xuan, J., Dietrich, J. P., Stevanović, M., Bai, Z., Ma, L., Jin, S., Fan, S., Lotze-Campen, H., and Popp, A.: Reforming China’s fertilizer policies: implications for nitrogen pollution reduction and food security, Sustain. Sci., 18, 407–420, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-022-01189-w, 2023. a
Weindl, I., Bodirsky, B. L., Rolinski, S., Biewald, A., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Dietrich, J. P., Humpenöder, F., Stevanović, M., Schaphoff, S., and Popp, A.: Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: Implications of agricultural management and dietary choices, Glob. Environ. Change, 47, 121–132, 2017a. a
Weindl, I., Popp, A., Bodirsky, B. L., Rolinski, S., Lotze-Campen, H., Biewald, A., Humpenöder, F., Dietrich, J. P., and Stevanović, M.: Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics, Glob. Planet. Change, 159, 1–10, 2017b. a
Weindl, I., Soergel, B., Ambrosio, G., Daioglou, V., Doelman, J. C., Beier, F., Beusen, A., Bodirsky, B. L., Bos, A., Dietrich, J. P., Humpenöder, F., von Jeetze, P., Karstens, K., Rauner, S., Stehfest, E., Stevanović, M., van Zeist, W.-J., Lotze-Campen, H., van Vuuren, D., Kriegler, E., and Popp, A.: Food and land system transformations under different societal perspectives on sustainable development, Environ. Res. Lett., 19, 124085, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad8f46, 2024. a
Winkler, K., Fuchs, R., Rounsevell, M., and Herold, M.: Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated, Nat. Commun., 12, 2501, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22702-2, 2021. a
Wu, Y., Zhao, F., Liu, S., Wang, L., Qiu, L., Alexandrov, G., and Jothiprakash, V.: Bioenergy production and environmental impacts, Geosci. Lett., 5, 14, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-018-0114-y, 2018. a
Yang, Y., Lu, Z., Yang, M., Yan, Y., and Wei, Y.: Impact of land use changes on uncertainty in ecosystem services under different future scenarios: A case study of Zhang-Cheng area, China, J. Clean. Prod., 434, 139881, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139881, 2024. a
Yu, Z., Lu, C., Tian, H., and Canadell, J. G.: Largely underestimated carbon emission from land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States, Glob. Change Biol., 25, 3741–3752, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14768, 2019. a
Yukimoto, S., Kawai, H., Koshiro, T., Oshima, N., Yoshida, K., Urakawa, S., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T., Hosaka, M., Yabu, S., Yoshimura, H., Shindo, E., Mizuta, R., Obata, A., Adachi, Y., and Ishii, M.: The meteorological research institute Earth system model version 2.0, MRI-ESM2.0: Description and basic evaluation of the physical component, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 97, 931–965, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-051, 2019. a
Short summary
Land-use change projections are vital for impact studies. This study compares updated land-use model projections, including CO2 fertilization among other upgrades, from the MAgPIE and IMAGE models under three scenarios, highlighting differences, uncertainty hotspots, and harmonization effects. Key findings include reduced bioenergy crop demand projections and differences in grassland area allocation and sizes, with socioeconomic–climate scenarios' largest effect on variance starting in 2030.
Land-use change projections are vital for impact studies. This study compares updated land-use...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint