Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Jun 2025
Research article |
| 04 Jun 2025
| 04 Jun 2025
Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Miodrag Stevanović
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Jonathan Cornelis Doelman
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the Netherlands
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Louise Parsons Chini
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Jan Volkholz
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Katja Frieler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute for Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
George Hurtt
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Florian Humpenöder
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Kristine Karstens
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Jens Heinke
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Christoph Müller
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Jan Philipp Dietrich
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Hermann Lotze-Campen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Elke Stehfest
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the Netherlands
Alexander Popp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Witzenhausen, Germany
Viewed
Total article views: 887 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 19 Aug 2024)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 602 | 195 | 90 | 887 | 25 | 23 |
- HTML: 602
- PDF: 195
- XML: 90
- Total: 887
- BibTeX: 25
- EndNote: 23
Total article views: 120 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 04 Jun 2025)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 16 | 1 | 120 | 1 | 1 |
- HTML: 103
- PDF: 16
- XML: 1
- Total: 120
- BibTeX: 1
- EndNote: 1
Total article views: 767 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 19 Aug 2024)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 499 | 179 | 89 | 767 | 24 | 22 |
- HTML: 499
- PDF: 179
- XML: 89
- Total: 767
- BibTeX: 24
- EndNote: 22
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 887 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 887 with geography defined
and 0 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 120 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 120 with geography defined
and 0 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 767 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 767 with geography defined
and 0 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Latest update: 06 Jun 2025
Short summary
Land-use change projections are vital for impact studies. This study compares updated land-use model projections, including CO2 fertilization among other upgrades, from the MAgPIE and IMAGE models under three scenarios, highlighting differences, uncertainty hotspots, and harmonization effects. Key findings include reduced bioenergy crop demand projections and differences in grassland area allocation and sizes, with socioeconomic–climate scenarios' largest effect on variance starting in 2030.
Land-use change projections are vital for impact studies. This study compares updated land-use...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint