Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025
Research article
 | 
04 Jun 2025
Research article |  | 04 Jun 2025

Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework

Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan Cornelis Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2441', Anonymous Referee #1, 13 Sep 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, 06 Dec 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2441', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Nov 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, 06 Dec 2024
      • AC3: 'Reply on AC1', Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, 13 Dec 2024
      • AC4: 'Reply on AC1', Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, 13 Dec 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (19 Dec 2024) by Min Chen
AR by Edna Johanna Molina Bacca on behalf of the Authors (29 Jan 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (06 Mar 2025) by Min Chen
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (08 Mar 2025)
ED: Publish as is (09 Mar 2025) by Min Chen
AR by Edna Johanna Molina Bacca on behalf of the Authors (12 Mar 2025)  Manuscript 
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Short summary
Land-use change projections are vital for impact studies. This study compares updated land-use model projections, including CO2 fertilization among other upgrades, from the MAgPIE and IMAGE models under three scenarios, highlighting differences, uncertainty hotspots, and harmonization effects. Key findings include reduced bioenergy crop demand projections and differences in grassland area allocation and sizes, with socioeconomic–climate scenarios' largest effect on variance starting in 2030.
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