Articles | Volume 16, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025
Research article
 | 
04 Jun 2025
Research article |  | 04 Jun 2025

Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework

Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan Cornelis Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp

Data sets

ISIMIP 3b, Land Use Models outputs intercomparison Edna J. Molina Bacca https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12964394

ISIMIP 3b, Land Use Models outputs intercomparison - Plotting scripts Edna J. Molina Bacca https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12964533

Model code and software

MAgPIE - An Open Source land-use modeling framework version 4.4.0 Jan Philipp Dietrich et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1418752

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Short summary
Land-use change projections are vital for impact studies. This study compares updated land-use model projections, including CO2 fertilization among other upgrades, from the MAgPIE and IMAGE models under three scenarios, highlighting differences, uncertainty hotspots, and harmonization effects. Key findings include reduced bioenergy crop demand projections and differences in grassland area allocation and sizes, with socioeconomic–climate scenarios' largest effect on variance starting in 2030.
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