Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025
Research article
 | 
16 Apr 2025
Research article |  | 16 Apr 2025

A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours – the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern

E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann

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Topics: Sustainability science | Interactions: Human/Earth system interactions | Methods: Other methods
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Cited articles

Akerlof, K., Merrill, J., Yusuf, J.-E., Covi, M., and Rohring, E.: Key beliefs and attitudes for sea-level rise policy, Coast. Manage., 47, 406–428, 2019. a
Andreoni, J., Nikiforakis, N., and Siegenthaler, S.: Predicting social tipping and norm change in controlled experiments, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2014893118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2014893118, 2021. a
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. a, b
Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., and Cox, P.: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 370, 1166–1184, 2012. a, b, c, d
Barabási, A.-L. and Albert, R.: Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks, Science, 286, 509–512, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.286.5439.509, 1999. a
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Short summary
Social tipping dynamics have received recent attention as a potential mechanism for effective climate actions – yet how such tipping dynamics could unfold remains largely unquantified. We explore how social tipping processes can develop by enabling necessary conditions (exemplified by climate change concern) and increased perceptions of localized impacts (sea level rise). The likelihood of social tipping varies regionally, mostly along areas with the highest exposure to persistent risks.
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