A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours – the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern

Smith, E. Keith; Wiedermann, Marc; Donges, Jonathan F.; Heitzig, Jobst; Winkelmann, Ricarda

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025

Articles | Volume 16, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Tipping points in the Anthropocene

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 2

Research article

|

16 Apr 2025

Research article |

| 16 Apr 2025

A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours – the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern

E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025-supplement

Data sets

Supporting data for "Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections – the MAGICC sea level model v2.0" A. Nauels et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.572398

Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11 Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) https://doi.org/10.7927/H49C6VHW

International Social Survey Programme: Environment IV - ISSP 2020 ISSP Research Group https://doi.org/10.4232/1.14153

ESS round 8 - 2016, Welfare attitudes, Attitudes to climate change European Social Survey European Research Infrastructure (ESS ERIC) https://doi.org/10.21338/NSD-ESS8-2016

Eurobarometer 87.1 (2017) European Commission and European Parliament, Brussels https://doi.org/10.4232/1.13738

Eurobarometer 91.3 (2019) European Commission, Brussels https://doi.org/10.4232/1.13372

Model code and software

Source code for "Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections – the MAGICC sea level model v2.0" A. Nauels et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.572395

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Short summary

Social tipping dynamics have received recent attention as a potential mechanism for effective climate actions – yet how such tipping dynamics could unfold remains largely unquantified. We explore how social tipping processes can develop by enabling necessary conditions (exemplified by climate change concern) and increased perceptions of localized impacts (sea level rise). The likelihood of social tipping varies regionally, mostly along areas with the highest exposure to persistent risks.