Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-817-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-817-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Jun 2024
Research article |
| 24 Jun 2024
| 24 Jun 2024
Global cropland expansion enhances cropping potential and reduces its inequality among countries
Xiaoxuan Liu
Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China
Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, 999077, China
Institute for Climate and Carbon Neutrality, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, 999077, China
Shu Liu
Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asia Migratory Birds, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Xi'an Institute of Surveying and Mapping Joint Research Center for Next-Generation Smart Mapping, Beijing, 100084, China
Yong Wang
Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
Zhenrong Du
School of Information and Communication Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China
Dailiang Peng
Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China
Ece Aksoy
Geospatial Unit, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome 00153, Italy
Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Xi'an Institute of Surveying and Mapping Joint Research Center for Next-Generation Smart Mapping, Beijing, 100084, China
State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
Peng Gong
Institute for Climate and Carbon Neutrality, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, 999077, China
Department of Geography, Department of Earth Sciences and Institute for Climate and Carbon Neutrality, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, 999077, China
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Mark S. Williamson and Timothy M. Lenton
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Anja Katzenberger and Anders Levermann
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Felix Jäger, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, Michael Windisch, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Christoph Müller, Kanishka Balu Narayan, Ryan Sebastian Padrón, Alexander Popp, Detlef van Vuuren, Michael Wögerer, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
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Chencheng Shen, John C. Moore, Heri Kuswanto, and Liyun Zhao
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Alistair Duffey, Robbie Mallett, Peter J. Irvine, Michel Tsamados, and Julienne Stroeve
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The Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the planet. Here, we use climate model projections to quantify for the first time how this faster warming in the Arctic impacts the timing of crossing the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds defined in the Paris Agreement. We show that under plausible emissions scenarios that fail to meet the Paris 1.5 °C target, a hypothetical world without faster warming in the Arctic would breach that 1.5 °C target around 5 years later.
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Short summary
An increase of 28 % in cropland expansion since 10 000 BCE has led to a 1.2 % enhancement in the global cropping potential, with varying efficiencies across regions. The continuous expansion has altered the support for population growth and has had impacts on climate and biodiversity, highlighting the effects of climate change. It also points out the limitations of previous studies.
An increase of 28 % in cropland expansion since 10 000 BCE has led to a 1.2 % enhancement in the...
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