Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024
Research article
 | 
05 Dec 2024
Research article |  | 05 Dec 2024

Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming

Chandrakant Singh, Ruud van der Ent, Ingo Fetzer, and Lan Wang-Erlandsson

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Cited articles

Ahlström, A., Canadell, J. G., Schurgers, G., Wu, M., Berry, J. A., Guan, K., and Jackson, R. B.: Hydrologic resilience and Amazon productivity, Nat. Commun., 8, 387, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00306-z, 2017. 
Albasha, R., Mailhol, J.-C., and Cheviron, B.: Compensatory uptake functions in empirical macroscopic root water uptake models – Experimental and numerical analysis, Agr. Water Manage., 155, 22–39, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.03.010, 2015. 
Anderegg, W. R. L., Klein, T., Bartlett, M., Sack, L., Pellegrini, A. F. A., Choat, B., and Jansen, S.: Meta-analysis reveals that hydraulic traits explain cross-species patterns of drought-induced tree mortality across the globe, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 5024–5029, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1525678113, 2016. 
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. 
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Tropical rainforests risk tipping to savanna under future climate change. By analysing ecosystem root zone dynamics using hydroclimate data from Earth system models, we project the tipping risks for these rainforests. Our findings suggest that although some transition risks may be inevitable, most can still be mitigated by adapting to less severe climate change scenarios. Limiting global surface temperatures to meet the Paris Agreement targets is critical to preserving these ecosystems.
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