Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
Research article
 | 
05 Dec 2024
Research article |  | 05 Dec 2024

Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming

Chandrakant Singh, Ruud van der Ent, Ingo Fetzer, and Lan Wang-Erlandsson

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Latest update: 28 Jun 2025
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Short summary
Tropical rainforests risk tipping to savanna under future climate change. By analysing ecosystem root zone dynamics using hydroclimate data from Earth system models, we project the tipping risks for these rainforests. Our findings suggest that although some transition risks may be inevitable, most can still be mitigated by adapting to less severe climate change scenarios. Limiting global surface temperatures to meet the Paris Agreement targets is critical to preserving these ecosystems.
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Tipping points in the Anthropocene
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