Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2&thinsp;°C warming

Singh, Chandrakant; van der Ent, Ruud; Fetzer, Ingo; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024

Articles | Volume 15, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Tipping points in the Anthropocene

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 6

Research article

|

05 Dec 2024

Research article |

| 05 Dec 2024

Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming

Chandrakant Singh, Ruud van der Ent, Ingo Fetzer, and Lan Wang-Erlandsson

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024-supplement

Data sets

The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations - a new environmental record for monitoring extremes (https://data.chc.ucsb.edu/products/CHIRPS-2.0/) C. Funk et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.66

Monthly global observation-driven Penman-Monteith-Leuning (PML) evapotranspiration and components Yongqiang Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.4225/08/5719A5C48DB85

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Tropical rainforest resilience under CMIP6-SSP scenarios (1.0) Chandrakant Singh https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7845439

Model code and software

Future-forest-transitions-CMIP6 Chandrakant Singh https://github.com/chandrakant6492/Future-forest-transitions-CMIP6

Rootzone storage capacity reveals drought coping strategies along rainforest-savanna transitions (https://github.com/chandrakant6492/Drought-coping-strategy) Chandrakant Singh et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc377

Download

Article (6647 KB)
Full-text XML

Short summary

Tropical rainforests risk tipping to savanna under future climate change. By analysing ecosystem root zone dynamics using hydroclimate data from Earth system models, we project the tipping risks for these rainforests. Our findings suggest that although some transition risks may be inevitable, most can still be mitigated by adapting to less severe climate change scenarios. Limiting global surface temperatures to meet the Paris Agreement targets is critical to preserving these ecosystems.