Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
Research article
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28 Nov 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 28 Nov 2024

Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China

Yasir Latif, Kaiyu Fan, Geli Wang, and Milan Paluš

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Precipitation predictability is a complex subject, given the spatiotemporal complexity of the relevant mechanisms and interactions. This paper provides a clear and relevant contribution on the topic of precipitation predictability, grounded in causal inference approaches. Although the focus of the study is regional, the methodology is flexible and can serve as working example for guiding further research on the topic in other geographical domains.
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Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a gigantic natural orchestra playing with the temperature of Pacific waters and influencing air temperature and rainfall worldwide. Naturally, the “loudness” or amplitude of ENSO has effects on climate; however, consonance of its various tones, or phases of different ENSO oscillatory components, can exert causal effects on rainfall in some areas in China. In different regions, different aspects of ENSO dynamics can predict rainfall amounts.
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