Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Aug 2023
Research article |
| 04 Aug 2023
| 04 Aug 2023
The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Gabriele Messori
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Rodrigo Caballero
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Davide Faranda
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement LSCE-IPSL, CEA Saclay l’Orme des Merisiers, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
London Mathematical Laboratory, London, W68RH, UK
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, IP Paris, CNRS, 75005, Paris, France
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2189, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Hemispheric heatwaves have fundamental implications for ecosystems and societies. They are studied together with the large-scale atmospheric dynamics, through the lens of the poleward heat transports by planetary-scale waves. Extremely weak transports of heat towards the Poles are found to be associated with hemispheric heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Therefore, we conclude that heat transports are a clear indicator, and possibly a precursor of hemispehric heatwaves.
Michael K. Schutte, Alice Portal, Simon H. Lee, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 521–548, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025, 2025
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Large-scale motions in the atmosphere, namely atmospheric waves, greatly impact the weather that we experience at the Earth's surface. Here we investigate how waves in the troposphere (the lower 10 km of the atmosphere) and the stratosphere (above the troposphere) interact to affect surface weather. We find that tropospheric waves that are reflected back down by the stratosphere change weather patterns and temperatures in North America. These changes can indirectly affect the weather in Europe.
Sara Lindersson and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-128, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The study of past temperature-related disasters requires information on socioeconomic impacts, hazard intensity and human exposure. This is often lacking in current disaster databases. SHEDIS-Temperature fills this gap by integrating impact records with information on disaster locations, high-resolution meteorological data, and population estimates. Covering 382 disasters in 71 countries (1979–2018), this dataset enables deeper analyses of heat-related risk and vulnerabilities.
Lia Rapella, Tommaso Alberti, Davide Faranda, and Philippe Drobinski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1219, 2025
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Extreme weather events pose increasing challenges for aviation, including flight disruptions and infrastructure damage. This study examines the influence of anthropogenic climate change on four recent major storms across Europe, the USA, and East Asia. Our research underscores the growing intensity of extreme storms, driven by human-induced climate change, underscoring the need to adapt aviation strategies to an increasingly hazardous environment.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Stella Bourdin, Davide Faranda, and Mathieu Vrac
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-252, 2025
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The tracking of Tropical cyclones (TCs) remains a matter of interest for the investigation of observed and simulated tropical cyclones. In this study, Random Forest (RF), a machine learning approach, is considered to track TCs. RF associates TC occurrence or absence to different atmospheric configurations. Compared to trackers found in the literature, it shows similar performance for tracking TCs, better control over false alarm, more flexibility and reveal key variables allowing to detect TCs.
Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 169–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, 2025
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Explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers are two main drivers of extreme weather in Europe. In this study, we investigate their joint changes in future climates over the North Atlantic. Our results show that both the concurrence of these events and the intensity of atmospheric rivers increase by the end of the century across different future scenarios. Furthermore, explosive cyclones associated with atmospheric rivers last longer and are deeper than those without atmospheric rivers.
Kerry Emanuel, Tommaso Alberti, Stella Bourdin, Suzana J. Camargo, Davide Faranda, Manos Flaounas, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Chia-Ying Lee, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Claudia Pasquero, Alice Portal, Hamish Ramsay, and Romualdo Romero
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3387, 2024
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Storms strongly resembling hurricanes are sometime observed to form well outside the tropics, even in polar latitudes. They behave capriciously, developing very rapidly and then dying just as quickly. We show that strong dynamical processes in the atmosphere can sometimes cause it to become locally much colder than the underlying ocean, creating the conditions for hurricanes to form, but only over small areas and for short times. We call the resulting storms "cyclops".
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
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Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
Robin Noyelle, Davide Faranda, Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, and Pascal Yiou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3167, 2024
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Extreme meteorological and climatological events properties are changing under human caused climate change. Extreme events attribution methods seek to estimate the contribution of global warming in the probability and intensity changes of extreme events. Here we propose a procedure to estimate these quantities for the flow analogues method which compare the observed event to similar events in the past.
Clare Marie Flynn, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-298, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-298, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESSD
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We created a new, publicly available database of the Top 50 most extreme European winter windstorms from each of four different meteorological input data sets covering the years 1995–2015. We found variability in all aspects of our database, from which storms were included in the Top 50 storms for each input to their spatial variability. We urge users of our database to consider the storms as identified from two or more input sources within our database, where possible.
Sohan Suresan, Nili Harnik, and Rodrigo Caballero
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2745, 2024
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This study explores how extreme winter weather events across the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by the rare merging of the Atlantic and African jets, beyond the typical factors like NAO and ENSO. We identify unique surface signals and changes in cyclone paths associated with such persistent jet merging over the Atlantic, offering insights into these extreme winter weather patterns.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, 2024
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Storm Daniel (2023) is one of the most catastrophic ones ever documented in the Mediterranean. Our results highlight the different dynamics and therefore the different predictability skill of precipitation, its extremes and impacts that have been produced in Greece and Libya, the two most affected countries. Our approach concerns a holistic analysis of the storm by articulating dynamics, weather prediction, hydrological and oceanographic implications, climate extremes and attribution theory.
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Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1207–1225, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, 2024
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Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
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Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
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Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024
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We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into extreme-weather events. Our tool unveils how climate change and natural variability affect these events, affecting communities worldwide. Our research equips policymakers and the public with essential knowledge, fostering informed decisions and enhancing climate resilience. We analysed two distinct events, showcasing ClimaMeter's global relevance.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
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The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024
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Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, 2024
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In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, 2024
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In the last decades, weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future has been dominated by physics-based numerical models. Recently, deep learning models have challenged this paradigm. However, the latter models may struggle when forecasting weather extremes. In this article, we argue for deep learning models specifically designed to handle extreme events, and we propose a foundational framework to develop such models.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, 2023
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In this work, we draw on paleoreords, observations and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is considered conceivable but currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Axel Kleidon, Gabriele Messori, Somnath Baidya Roy, Ira Didenkulova, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 241–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, 2023
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
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The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
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We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, and Vivien Wendt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, 2022
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Over 10 km above the ground, there is a region of the atmosphere called the stratosphere. While there is very little air in the stratosphere itself, its interactions with the lower parts of the atmosphere – where we live – can affect the weather. Here we study a specific example of such an interaction, whereby processes occurring at the boundary of the stratosphere can lead to a continent-wide drop in temperatures in North America during winter.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
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Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons and Davide Faranda
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 155–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-155-2022, 2022
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The objective motivating this study is the assessment of the impacts of winter climate extremes, which requires accurate simulation of snowfall. However, climate simulation models contain physical approximations, which result in biases that must be corrected using past data as a reference. We show how to exploit simulated temperature and precipitation to estimate snowfall from already bias-corrected variables, without requiring the elaboration of complex, multivariate bias adjustment techniques.
Miriam D'Errico, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Soulivanh Tao, Cesare Nardini, Frank Lunkeit, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 961–992, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022, 2022
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Climate change is already affecting weather extremes. In a warming climate, we will expect the cold spells to decrease in frequency and intensity. Our analysis shows that the frequency of circulation patterns leading to snowy cold-spell events over Italy will not decrease under business-as-usual emission scenarios, although the associated events may not lead to cold conditions in the warmer scenarios.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Bérengère Dubrulle, François Daviaud, Davide Faranda, Louis Marié, and Brice Saint-Michel
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-17-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-17-2022, 2022
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Present climate models discuss climate change but show no sign of bifurcation in the future. Is this because there is none or because they are in essence too simplified to be able to capture them? To get elements of an answer, we ran a laboratory experiment and discovered that the answer is not so simple.
Sonja Murto, Rodrigo Caballero, Gunilla Svensson, and Lukas Papritz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-21-2022, 2022
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This study uses reanalysis data to investigate the role of atmospheric blocking, prevailing high-pressure systems and mid-latitude cyclones in driving high-Arctic wintertime warm extreme events. These events are mainly preceded by Ural and Scandinavian blocks, which are shown to be significantly influenced and amplified by cyclones in the North Atlantic. It also highlights processes that need to be well captured in climate models for improving their representation of Arctic wintertime climate.
Davide Faranda, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Adnane Hamid, Giulia Carella, Cedric Ngoungue Langue, Soulivanh Thao, and Valerie Gautard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 423–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, 2021
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Machine learning approaches are spreading rapidly in climate sciences. They are of great help in many practical situations where using the underlying equations is difficult because of the limitation in computational power. Here we use a systematic approach to investigate the limitations of the popular echo state network algorithms used to forecast the long-term behaviour of chaotic systems, such as the weather. Our results show that noise and intermittency greatly affect the performances.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
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Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
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The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
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Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons and Davide Faranda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-352, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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The objective motivating this study is the assessment of the impacts of winter climate extremes, which requires accurate simulation of snowfall. However, climate simulation models contain physical approximations, which result in biases that must be corrected using past data as a reference. We show how to exploit simulated temperature and precipitation to estimate snowfall from already bias-corrected variables, without requiring the elaboration of complex, multivariate bias adjustment techniques.
Ying Liu, Rodrigo Caballero, and Joy Merwin Monteiro
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4399–4412, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4399-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4399-2020, 2020
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The calculation of atmospheric radiative transfer is the most computationally expensive part of climate models. Reducing this computational burden could potentially improve our ability to simulate the earth's climate at finer scales. We propose using a statistical model – a deep neural network – to compute approximate radiative transfer in the earth's atmosphere. We demonstrate a significant reduction in computational burden as compared to a traditional scheme, especially when using GPUs.
Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 445–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-445-2020, 2020
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Despite the global temperature rise caused by anthropogenic emissions, we still observe heavy snowfalls that cause casualties, transport disruptions and energy supply problems. The goal of this paper is to investigate recent trends in snowfalls from reanalysis and observational datasets. The analysis shows an evident discrepancy between trends in average and extreme snowfalls. The latter can only be explained by looking at atmospheric circulation.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020
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In this paper we quantify Mediterranean compound temperature and precipitation dynamical extremes (CDEs) over the 1979–2018 period. The strength of the temperature–precipitation coupling during summer increased and is driven by surface warming. We also link the CDEs to compound hot–dry and cold–wet events during summer and winter respectively.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020
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We show that floods and droughts can co-occur in time across remote regions on the globe and introduce metrics that can help in quantifying concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes. We then link wet–dry extremes to major modes of climate variability (i.e. ENSO, PDO, and AMO) and provide their spatial patterns. Such concurrent extreme hydrological events may pose risks to regional hydropower production and agricultural yields.
Sebastian Scher and Gabriele Messori
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 381–399, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-381-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-381-2019, 2019
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Neural networks are a technique that is widely used to predict the time evolution of physical systems. For this the past evolution of the system is shown to the neural network – it is
trained– and then can be used to predict the evolution in the future. We show some limitations in this approach for certain systems that are important to consider when using neural networks for climate- and weather-related applications.
Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Gabriele Messori, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, 2019
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We show how the complex dynamics of the jet stream at midlatitude can be described by a simple mathematical model. We match the properties of the model to those obtained by the jet data derived from observations.
Sebastian Scher and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2797–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2797-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2797-2019, 2019
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Currently, weather forecasts are mainly produced by using computer models based on physical equations. It is an appealing idea to use neural networks and “deep learning” for weather forecasting instead. We successfully test the possibility of using deep learning for weather forecasting by considering climate models as simplified versions of reality. Our work therefore is a step towards potentially using deep learning to replace or accompany current weather forecasting models.
Claire Waelbroeck, Sylvain Pichat, Evelyn Böhm, Bryan C. Lougheed, Davide Faranda, Mathieu Vrac, Lise Missiaen, Natalia Vazquez Riveiros, Pierre Burckel, Jörg Lippold, Helge W. Arz, Trond Dokken, François Thil, and Arnaud Dapoigny
Clim. Past, 14, 1315–1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1315-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1315-2018, 2018
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Recording the precise timing and sequence of events is essential for understanding rapid climate changes and improving climate model predictive skills. Here, we precisely assess the relative timing between ocean and atmospheric changes, both recorded in the same deep-sea core over the last 45 kyr. We show that decreased mid-depth water mass transport in the western equatorial Atlantic preceded increased rainfall over the adjacent continent by 120 to 980 yr, depending on the type of climate event.
Joy Merwin Monteiro, Jeremy McGibbon, and Rodrigo Caballero
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3781–3794, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3781-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3781-2018, 2018
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In the same way that the fruit fly or the yeast cell serve as model systems in biology, climate scientists use a range of computer models to gain a fundamental understanding of our climate system. These models range from extremely simple models that can run on your phone to those that require supercomputers. Sympl and climt are packages that make it easy for climate scientists to build a hierarchy of such models using Python, which facilitates easy to read and self-documenting models.
David K. Hutchinson, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Rodrigo Caballero, Johan Nilsson, and Michiel Baatsen
Clim. Past, 14, 789–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-789-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-789-2018, 2018
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The Eocene--Oligocene transition was a major cooling event 34 million years ago. Climate model studies of this transition have used low ocean resolution or topography that roughly approximates the time period. We present a new climate model simulation of the late Eocene, with higher ocean resolution and topography which is accurately designed for this time period. These features improve the ocean circulation and gateways which are thought to be important for this climate transition.
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, and Pascal Yiou
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 713–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-713-2017, 2017
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We study the dynamical properties of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation by analysing the sea-level pressure, 2 m temperature, and precipitation frequency field over the period 1948–2013. The metrics are linked to the predictability and the persistence of the atmospheric flows. We study the dependence on the seasonal cycle and the fields corresponding to maxima and minima of the dynamical indicators.
Henrik Carlson and Rodrigo Caballero
Clim. Past, 13, 1037–1048, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1037-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1037-2017, 2017
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Climate models are able to simulate the surface temperature of the early Eocene as reconstructed from paleoclimatology data, but only by using extremely high CO2 concentrations or clouds that are more transparent to solar radiation. We explore the potential for distinguishing among these two forcing agents via their impact on regional climate. Better constraining the radiative forcing that led to Eocene warmth has important implications for understanding Earth's climate sensitivity.
Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Eleni Anagnostou, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Rodrigo Caballero, Rob DeConto, Henk A. Dijkstra, Yannick Donnadieu, David Evans, Ran Feng, Gavin L. Foster, Ed Gasson, Anna S. von der Heydt, Chris J. Hollis, Gordon N. Inglis, Stephen M. Jones, Jeff Kiehl, Sandy Kirtland Turner, Robert L. Korty, Reinhardt Kozdon, Srinath Krishnan, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Petra Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kate Littler, Paul Markwick, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Paul Pearson, Christopher J. Poulsen, Ulrich Salzmann, Christine Shields, Kathryn Snell, Michael Stärz, James Super, Clay Tabor, Jessica E. Tierney, Gregory J. L. Tourte, Aradhna Tripati, Garland R. Upchurch, Bridget S. Wade, Scott L. Wing, Arne M. E. Winguth, Nicky M. Wright, James C. Zachos, and Richard E. Zeebe
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, 2017
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In this paper we describe the experimental design for a set of simulations which will be carried out by a range of climate models, all investigating the climate of the Eocene, about 50 million years ago. The intercomparison of model results is called 'DeepMIP', and we anticipate that we will contribute to the next IPCC report through an analysis of these simulations and the geological data to which we will compare them.
Davide Faranda and Dimitri Defrance
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 517–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-517-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-517-2016, 2016
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We introduce a general technique to detect a climate change signal in the coherent and turbulent components of the atmospheric circulation. Our analysis suggests that the coherent components (atmospheric waves, long-term oscillations) will experience the greatest changes in future climate, proportionally to the greenhouse gas emission scenario considered.
M. Mihelich, D. Faranda, B. Dubrulle, and D. Paillard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 187–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-187-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-187-2015, 2015
F. S. R. Pausata, M. Gaetani, G. Messori, S. Kloster, and F. J. Dentener
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 1725–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1725-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-1725-2015, 2015
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our study suggests that future aerosol abatement may be the primary driver of increased blocking events over the western Mediterranean. This modification of the atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Atlantic sector leads to more stagnant weather conditions that favour air pollutant accumulation especially in the western Mediterranean sector. Changes in atmospheric circulation should therefore be included in future air pollution mitigation assessments.
M. Löfverström, R. Caballero, J. Nilsson, and J. Kleman
Clim. Past, 10, 1453–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1453-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1453-2014, 2014
A. Goldner, M. Huber, and R. Caballero
Clim. Past, 9, 173–189, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-173-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-173-2013, 2013
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Short summary
We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to as persistence, and whether unusually persistent patterns favour warm-temperature extremes in Europe. We see no clear relationship between summertime heatwaves and unusually persistent patterns. This suggests that heatwaves do not necessarily require the continued flow of warm air over a region and that local effects could be important for their occurrence.
We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to...
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