Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Aug 2023
Research article |
| 04 Aug 2023
| 04 Aug 2023
The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Gabriele Messori
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Rodrigo Caballero
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Davide Faranda
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement LSCE-IPSL, CEA Saclay l’Orme des Merisiers, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
London Mathematical Laboratory, London, W68RH, UK
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, IP Paris, CNRS, 75005, Paris, France
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Cited
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The spatial extent of heat waves has changed over the past four decades C. Skinner et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02661-y
- Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events D. Faranda et al. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
- Influence of atmospheric blocking on solar radiation and maximum temperature in Poland during summer (1971–2023) K. Bartoszek & D. Matuszko https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108242
- Robustness of dynamical coupling between wintertime European weather extremes and the large-scale circulation A. Reiter et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07846-x
- Changing dynamics of Western European summertime cut‐off lows: A case study of the July 2021 flood event V. Thompson et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1260
- Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales: a methodological review A. Tuel & O. Martius https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023
- Investigating Warm-Season Heatwaves Along the Lithuanian Baltic Sea Coast Applying Copernicus Datasets I. Dailidienė et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su172310536
- Dynamical systems methods to understand projected heatwave intensification E. Vakrat & P. Kushner https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100791
- Concurrent heat waves and their linkage to large-scale meridional heat transports through planetary-scale waves V. Lembo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-453-2026
- Thermal Comfort Across the Iberian Peninsula at High Resolution: Variability, Trends, and Hotspots H. Pereira et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-026-01151-1
- Oceanic maintenance of atmospheric blocking in wintertime in the North Atlantic J. Mathews & A. Czaja https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07196-0
- River temperature response to atmospheric heatwaves is modulated by discharge and meltwater A. van Hamel et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03269-6
- Density-Induced Variations of Local Dimension Estimates for Absolutely Continuous Random Variables P. Platzer & B. Chapron https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-025-03416-x
- The Dynamical Footprint of Year‐Round North American Weather Regimes S. Lee & G. Messori https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107161
- Exceptionally high temperatures in Armenia in 2023: orographic effects, snowpack response and synoptic drivers A. Gevorgyan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01544-z
- Heatwave Location Changes in Relation to Rossby Wave Phase Speed W. Wicker et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108159
- Three-dimensional analysis reveals diverse heat wave types in Europe O. Lhotka & J. Kyselý https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01497-2
- Robust identification of impactful boreal summer anticyclones E. Vakrat & P. Kushner https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100962
- Climatology and trends of concurrent temperature extremes in the global extratropics G. Messori et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024
- An interpretable latent space reveals changing dynamics of European heatwaves T. Happé et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/3049-4753/ae6e42
- Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes E. Holmberg et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4885
- Record-breaking persistence of the 2022/23 marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea S. Marullo et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad02ae
- Spatio-temporal dynamical indices for complex systems C. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2025.117248
- Dynamical system metrics and weather regimes explain the seasonally-varying link between European heatwaves and the large-scale atmospheric circulation I. Dillerup et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-265-2026
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The spatial extent of heat waves has changed over the past four decades C. Skinner et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02661-y
- Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events D. Faranda et al. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
- Influence of atmospheric blocking on solar radiation and maximum temperature in Poland during summer (1971–2023) K. Bartoszek & D. Matuszko https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108242
- Robustness of dynamical coupling between wintertime European weather extremes and the large-scale circulation A. Reiter et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07846-x
- Changing dynamics of Western European summertime cut‐off lows: A case study of the July 2021 flood event V. Thompson et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1260
- Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales: a methodological review A. Tuel & O. Martius https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023
- Investigating Warm-Season Heatwaves Along the Lithuanian Baltic Sea Coast Applying Copernicus Datasets I. Dailidienė et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su172310536
- Dynamical systems methods to understand projected heatwave intensification E. Vakrat & P. Kushner https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100791
- Concurrent heat waves and their linkage to large-scale meridional heat transports through planetary-scale waves V. Lembo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-453-2026
- Thermal Comfort Across the Iberian Peninsula at High Resolution: Variability, Trends, and Hotspots H. Pereira et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-026-01151-1
- Oceanic maintenance of atmospheric blocking in wintertime in the North Atlantic J. Mathews & A. Czaja https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07196-0
- River temperature response to atmospheric heatwaves is modulated by discharge and meltwater A. van Hamel et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03269-6
- Density-Induced Variations of Local Dimension Estimates for Absolutely Continuous Random Variables P. Platzer & B. Chapron https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-025-03416-x
- The Dynamical Footprint of Year‐Round North American Weather Regimes S. Lee & G. Messori https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107161
- Exceptionally high temperatures in Armenia in 2023: orographic effects, snowpack response and synoptic drivers A. Gevorgyan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01544-z
- Heatwave Location Changes in Relation to Rossby Wave Phase Speed W. Wicker et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108159
- Three-dimensional analysis reveals diverse heat wave types in Europe O. Lhotka & J. Kyselý https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01497-2
- Robust identification of impactful boreal summer anticyclones E. Vakrat & P. Kushner https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100962
- Climatology and trends of concurrent temperature extremes in the global extratropics G. Messori et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024
- An interpretable latent space reveals changing dynamics of European heatwaves T. Happé et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/3049-4753/ae6e42
- Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes E. Holmberg et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4885
- Record-breaking persistence of the 2022/23 marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea S. Marullo et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad02ae
- Spatio-temporal dynamical indices for complex systems C. Dong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2025.117248
- Dynamical system metrics and weather regimes explain the seasonally-varying link between European heatwaves and the large-scale atmospheric circulation I. Dillerup et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-265-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 31 Oct 2026
Short summary
We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to as persistence, and whether unusually persistent patterns favour warm-temperature extremes in Europe. We see no clear relationship between summertime heatwaves and unusually persistent patterns. This suggests that heatwaves do not necessarily require the continued flow of warm air over a region and that local effects could be important for their occurrence.
We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to...
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