Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Aug 2023
Research article |
| 04 Aug 2023
| 04 Aug 2023
The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Gabriele Messori
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Rodrigo Caballero
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Davide Faranda
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement LSCE-IPSL, CEA Saclay l’Orme des Merisiers, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
London Mathematical Laboratory, London, W68RH, UK
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, IP Paris, CNRS, 75005, Paris, France
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Cited
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Density-Induced Variations of Local Dimension Estimates for Absolutely Continuous Random Variables P. Platzer & B. Chapron 10.1007/s10955-025-03416-x
- Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events D. Faranda et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
- The Dynamical Footprint of Year‐Round North American Weather Regimes S. Lee & G. Messori 10.1029/2023GL107161
- Influence of atmospheric blocking on solar radiation and maximum temperature in Poland during summer (1971–2023) K. Bartoszek & D. Matuszko 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108242
- Heatwave Location Changes in Relation to Rossby Wave Phase Speed W. Wicker et al. 10.1029/2024GL108159
- Three-dimensional analysis reveals diverse heat wave types in Europe O. Lhotka & J. Kyselý 10.1038/s43247-024-01497-2
- Changing dynamics of Western European summertime cut‐off lows: A case study of the July 2021 flood event V. Thompson et al. 10.1002/asl.1260
- Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales: a methodological review A. Tuel & O. Martius 10.5194/esd-14-955-2023
- Climatology and trends of concurrent temperature extremes in the global extratropics G. Messori et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024
- Dynamical Systems Methods to Understand Projected Heatwave Intensification E. Vakrat & P. Kushner 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100791
- Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes E. Holmberg et al. 10.1002/qj.4885
- Record-breaking persistence of the 2022/23 marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea S. Marullo et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad02ae
- Oceanic maintenance of atmospheric blocking in wintertime in the North Atlantic J. Mathews & A. Czaja 10.1007/s00382-024-07196-0
13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Density-Induced Variations of Local Dimension Estimates for Absolutely Continuous Random Variables P. Platzer & B. Chapron 10.1007/s10955-025-03416-x
- Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events D. Faranda et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001
- The Dynamical Footprint of Year‐Round North American Weather Regimes S. Lee & G. Messori 10.1029/2023GL107161
- Influence of atmospheric blocking on solar radiation and maximum temperature in Poland during summer (1971–2023) K. Bartoszek & D. Matuszko 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108242
- Heatwave Location Changes in Relation to Rossby Wave Phase Speed W. Wicker et al. 10.1029/2024GL108159
- Three-dimensional analysis reveals diverse heat wave types in Europe O. Lhotka & J. Kyselý 10.1038/s43247-024-01497-2
- Changing dynamics of Western European summertime cut‐off lows: A case study of the July 2021 flood event V. Thompson et al. 10.1002/asl.1260
- Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales: a methodological review A. Tuel & O. Martius 10.5194/esd-14-955-2023
- Climatology and trends of concurrent temperature extremes in the global extratropics G. Messori et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024
- Dynamical Systems Methods to Understand Projected Heatwave Intensification E. Vakrat & P. Kushner 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100791
- Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes E. Holmberg et al. 10.1002/qj.4885
- Record-breaking persistence of the 2022/23 marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea S. Marullo et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad02ae
- Oceanic maintenance of atmospheric blocking in wintertime in the North Atlantic J. Mathews & A. Czaja 10.1007/s00382-024-07196-0
Latest update: 10 Jul 2025
Short summary
We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to as persistence, and whether unusually persistent patterns favour warm-temperature extremes in Europe. We see no clear relationship between summertime heatwaves and unusually persistent patterns. This suggests that heatwaves do not necessarily require the continued flow of warm air over a region and that local effects could be important for their occurrence.
We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to...
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