Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-723-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-723-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Jul 2023
Research article |
| 17 Jul 2023
| 17 Jul 2023
Combining local model calibration with the emergent constraint approach to reduce uncertainty in the tropical land carbon cycle feedback
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Tim Jupp
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Ben Booth
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Peter Cox
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Related authors
Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Conesa
The Cryosphere, 18, 5067–5099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet is highly dependent on surface melting and therefore on the processes operating at the snow–atmosphere interface and within the snow cover. Here we present new developments to apply a snow model to the Greenland ice sheet. The performance of this model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate ablation processes. Our analysis shows that the model performs well when compared with the MAR regional polar atmospheric model.
Nina Raoult, Simon Beylat, James M. Salter, Frédéric Hourdin, Vladislav Bastrikov, Catherine Ottlé, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5779–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use computer models to predict how the land surface will respond to climate change. However, these complex models do not always simulate what we observe in real life, limiting their effectiveness. To improve their accuracy, we use sophisticated statistical and computational techniques. We test a technique called history matching against more common approaches. This method adapts well to these models, helping us better understand how they work and therefore how to make them more realistic.
Luis-Enrique Olivera-Guerra, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, and Philippe Peylin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-546, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assimilate the recent land surface temperature (LST) product from ESA-CCI to optimize parameters of the ORCHIDEE model. We test different strategies of assimilation to evaluate the best strategy over various in situ stations across Europe. We provide some advice on how to assimilate this recent LST product to better simulate LST and surface energy fluxes from ORCHIDEE. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this optimization, which is essential to better simulate future projections.
Nina Raoult, Louis-Axel Edouard-Rambaut, Nicolas Vuichard, Vladislav Bastrikov, Anne Sofie Lansø, Bertrand Guenet, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 21, 1017–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Observations are used to reduce uncertainty in land surface models (LSMs) by optimising poorly constraining parameters. However, optimising against current conditions does not necessarily ensure that the parameters treated as invariant will be robust in a changing climate. Manipulation experiments offer us a unique chance to optimise our models under different (here atmospheric CO2) conditions. By using these data in optimisations, we gain confidence in the future projections of LSMs.
Nina Raoult, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, and Vladislav Bastrikov
The Cryosphere, 17, 2705–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2705-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2705-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice sheet melting due to global warming could significantly impact global sea-level rise. The ice sheet's albedo, i.e. how reflective the surface is, affects the melting speed. The ORCHIDEE computer model is used to simulate albedo and snowmelt to make predictions. However, the albedo in ORCHIDEE is lower than that observed using satellites. To correct this, we change model parameters (e.g. the rate of snow decay) to reduce the difference between simulated and observed values.
Zun Yin, Kirsten L. Findell, Paul Dirmeyer, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Khaled Ghannam, Nina Raoult, and Zhihong Tan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 861–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-861-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-861-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Land–atmosphere (L–A) interactions typically focus on daytime processes connecting the land state with the overlying atmospheric boundary layer. However, much prior L–A work used monthly or daily means due to the lack of daytime-only data products. Here we show that monthly smoothing can significantly obscure the L–A coupling signal, and including nighttime information can mute or mask the daytime processes of interest. We propose diagnosing L–A coupling within models or archiving subdaily data.
Camille Abadie, Fabienne Maignan, Marine Remaud, Jérôme Ogée, J. Elliott Campbell, Mary E. Whelan, Florian Kitz, Felix M. Spielmann, Georg Wohlfahrt, Richard Wehr, Wu Sun, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Didier Hauglustaine, Sinikka T. Lennartz, Sauveur Belviso, David Montagne, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 19, 2427–2463, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2427-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2427-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A better constraint of the components of the carbonyl sulfide (COS) global budget is needed to exploit its potential as a proxy of gross primary productivity. In this study, we compare two representations of oxic soil COS fluxes, and we develop an approach to represent anoxic soil COS fluxes in a land surface model. We show the importance of atmospheric COS concentration variations on oxic soil COS fluxes and provide new estimates for oxic and anoxic soil contributions to the COS global budget.
Fabienne Maignan, Camille Abadie, Marine Remaud, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Róisín Commane, Richard Wehr, J. Elliott Campbell, Sauveur Belviso, Stephen A. Montzka, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Yoichi P. Shiga, Nicolas Vuichard, Mary E. Whelan, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 18, 2917–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The assimilation of carbonyl sulfide (COS) by continental vegetation has been proposed as a proxy for gross primary production (GPP). Using a land surface and a transport model, we compare a mechanistic representation of the plant COS uptake (Berry et al., 2013) to the classical leaf relative uptake (LRU) approach linking GPP and vegetation COS fluxes. We show that at high temporal resolutions a mechanistic approach is mandatory, but at large scales the LRU approach compares similarly.
Nina M. Raoult, Tim E. Jupp, Peter M. Cox, and Catherine M. Luke
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2833–2852, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2833-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2833-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a set of "optimal" parameter values used to describe the influence of vegetation in a numerical climate model, and the software suite that we developed to find it. Observational data from ~ 100 locations were used, and the optimal parameters improve the fit in 90 % of the locations. The new parameter values will allow the climate model to give better predictions, and our software should prove useful in future calibrations.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, Xavier Fettweis, and Philippe Conesa
The Cryosphere, 18, 5067–5099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet is highly dependent on surface melting and therefore on the processes operating at the snow–atmosphere interface and within the snow cover. Here we present new developments to apply a snow model to the Greenland ice sheet. The performance of this model is analysed in terms of its ability to simulate ablation processes. Our analysis shows that the model performs well when compared with the MAR regional polar atmospheric model.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate Tipping Points are not instantaneous upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.
Nina Raoult, Simon Beylat, James M. Salter, Frédéric Hourdin, Vladislav Bastrikov, Catherine Ottlé, and Philippe Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5779–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5779-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We use computer models to predict how the land surface will respond to climate change. However, these complex models do not always simulate what we observe in real life, limiting their effectiveness. To improve their accuracy, we use sophisticated statistical and computational techniques. We test a technique called history matching against more common approaches. This method adapts well to these models, helping us better understand how they work and therefore how to make them more realistic.
Mark S. Williamson, Peter M. Cox, Chris Huntingford, and Femke J. M. M. Nijsse
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 829–852, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-829-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-829-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) have generally got statistically weaker in the latest set of state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP6) compared to past sets (CMIP5). We look at why this weakening happened for one particular study (Cox et al, 2018) and attribute it to an assumption made in the theory that when corrected for restores there is a stronger relationship between predictor and ECS.
Rebecca M. Varney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 21, 2759–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2759-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Soil carbon is the largest store of carbon on the land surface of Earth and is known to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Understanding this future response is vital to successfully meeting Paris Agreement targets, which rely heavily on carbon uptake by the land surface. In this study, the individual responses of soil carbon are quantified and compared amongst CMIP6 Earth system models used within the most recent IPCC report, and the role of soils in the land response is highlighted.
Masaru Yoshioka, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Ben B. B. Booth, Colin P. Morice, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1428, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Sulfur emissions from shipping has been reduced by about 80 % as a result of the new regulation introduced in 2020. This has reduced aerosol in the atmosphere and its cooling effect through interactions with clouds. As a result, our coupled climate model simulations predict a global warming of 0.04 K averaged over three decades, potentially surpassing the Paris target of 1.5 K or contributing to recent temperature spikes, particularly notable in the Arctic with a mean warming of 0.15 K.
Luis-Enrique Olivera-Guerra, Catherine Ottlé, Nina Raoult, and Philippe Peylin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-546, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assimilate the recent land surface temperature (LST) product from ESA-CCI to optimize parameters of the ORCHIDEE model. We test different strategies of assimilation to evaluate the best strategy over various in situ stations across Europe. We provide some advice on how to assimilate this recent LST product to better simulate LST and surface energy fluxes from ORCHIDEE. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this optimization, which is essential to better simulate future projections.
Nina Raoult, Louis-Axel Edouard-Rambaut, Nicolas Vuichard, Vladislav Bastrikov, Anne Sofie Lansø, Bertrand Guenet, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 21, 1017–1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1017-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Observations are used to reduce uncertainty in land surface models (LSMs) by optimising poorly constraining parameters. However, optimising against current conditions does not necessarily ensure that the parameters treated as invariant will be robust in a changing climate. Manipulation experiments offer us a unique chance to optimise our models under different (here atmospheric CO2) conditions. By using these data in optimisations, we gain confidence in the future projections of LSMs.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon Jones, Andy J. Wiltshire, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 20, 3767–3790, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates soil carbon projections during the 21st century in CMIP6 Earth system models. In general, we find a reduced spread of changes in global soil carbon in CMIP6 compared to the previous CMIP5 generation. The reduced CMIP6 spread arises from an emergent relationship between soil carbon changes due to change in plant productivity and soil carbon changes due to changes in turnover time. We show that this relationship is consistent with false priming under transient climate change.
Nina Raoult, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Fabienne Maignan, Catherine Ottlé, and Vladislav Bastrikov
The Cryosphere, 17, 2705–2724, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2705-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2705-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice sheet melting due to global warming could significantly impact global sea-level rise. The ice sheet's albedo, i.e. how reflective the surface is, affects the melting speed. The ORCHIDEE computer model is used to simulate albedo and snowmelt to make predictions. However, the albedo in ORCHIDEE is lower than that observed using satellites. To correct this, we change model parameters (e.g. the rate of snow decay) to reduce the difference between simulated and observed values.
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Hassan Alkhayuon, Peter M. Cox, and Sebastian Wieczorek
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 669–683, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Complex systems can undergo abrupt changes or tipping points when external forcing crosses a critical level and are of increasing concern because of their severe impacts. However, tipping points can also occur when the external forcing changes too quickly without crossing any critical levels, which is very relevant for Earth’s systems and contemporary climate. We give an intuitive explanation of such rate-induced tipping and provide illustrative examples from natural and human systems.
Tamzin E. Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 457–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out an assessment of an ensemble of general climate models (CMIP6) based on the ability of the models to represent the key physical processes that are important for representing European climate. Filtering the models with the assessment leads to more models with less global warming being removed, and this shifts the lower part of the projected temperature range towards greater warming. This is in contrast to the affect of weighting the ensemble using global temperature trends.
Chris Huntingford, Peter M. Cox, Mark S. Williamson, Joseph J. Clarke, and Paul D. L. Ritchie
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 433–442, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-433-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Emergent constraints (ECs) reduce the spread of projections between climate models. ECs estimate changes to climate features impacting adaptation policy, and with this high profile, the method is under scrutiny. Asking
What is an EC?, we suggest they are often the discovery of parameters that characterise hidden large-scale equations that climate models solve implicitly. We present this conceptually via two examples. Our analysis implies possible new paths to link ECs and physical processes.
Zun Yin, Kirsten L. Findell, Paul Dirmeyer, Elena Shevliakova, Sergey Malyshev, Khaled Ghannam, Nina Raoult, and Zhihong Tan
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 861–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-861-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-861-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Land–atmosphere (L–A) interactions typically focus on daytime processes connecting the land state with the overlying atmospheric boundary layer. However, much prior L–A work used monthly or daily means due to the lack of daytime-only data products. Here we show that monthly smoothing can significantly obscure the L–A coupling signal, and including nighttime information can mute or mask the daytime processes of interest. We propose diagnosing L–A coupling within models or archiving subdaily data.
Morgan Sparey, Peter Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Biogeosciences, 20, 451–488, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-451-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate climate models are vital for mitigating climate change; however, projections often disagree. Using Köppen–Geiger bioclimate classifications we show that CMIP6 climate models agree well on the fraction of global land surface that will change classification per degree of global warming. We find that 13 % of land will change climate per degree of warming from 1 to 3 K; thus, stabilising warming at 1.5 rather than 2 K would save over 7.5 million square kilometres from bioclimatic change.
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1667–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite little evidence of regional Amazon rainforest dieback, many localised abrupt dieback events are observed in the latest state-of-the-art global climate models under anthropogenic climate change. The detected dieback events would still cause severe consequences for local communities and ecosystems. This study suggests that 7 ± 5 % of the northern South America region would experience abrupt downward shifts in vegetation carbon for every degree of global warming past 1.5 °C.
Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Soil carbon is the Earth’s largest terrestrial carbon store, and the response to climate change represents one of the key uncertainties in obtaining accurate global carbon budgets required to successfully militate against climate change. The ability of climate models to simulate present-day soil carbon is therefore vital. This study assesses soil carbon simulation in the latest ensemble of models which allows key areas for future model development to be identified.
Amy H. Peace, Ben B. B. Booth, Leighton A. Regayre, Ken S. Carslaw, David M. H. Sexton, Céline J. W. Bonfils, and John W. Rostron
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1215–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have been linked to driving climate responses such as shifts in the location of tropical rainfall. However, the interaction of aerosols with climate remains one of the most uncertain aspects of climate modelling and limits our ability to predict future climate change. We use an ensemble of climate model simulations to investigate what impact the large uncertainty in how aerosols interact with climate has on predicting future tropical rainfall shifts.
Camille Abadie, Fabienne Maignan, Marine Remaud, Jérôme Ogée, J. Elliott Campbell, Mary E. Whelan, Florian Kitz, Felix M. Spielmann, Georg Wohlfahrt, Richard Wehr, Wu Sun, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Didier Hauglustaine, Sinikka T. Lennartz, Sauveur Belviso, David Montagne, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 19, 2427–2463, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2427-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2427-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A better constraint of the components of the carbonyl sulfide (COS) global budget is needed to exploit its potential as a proxy of gross primary productivity. In this study, we compare two representations of oxic soil COS fluxes, and we develop an approach to represent anoxic soil COS fluxes in a land surface model. We show the importance of atmospheric COS concentration variations on oxic soil COS fluxes and provide new estimates for oxic and anoxic soil contributions to the COS global budget.
Jie Zhang, Kalli Furtado, Steven T. Turnock, Jane P. Mulcahy, Laura J. Wilcox, Ben B. Booth, David Sexton, Tongwen Wu, Fang Zhang, and Qianxia Liu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18609–18627, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18609-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The CMIP6 ESMs systematically underestimate TAS anomalies in the NH midlatitudes, especially from 1960 to 1990. The anomalous cooling is concurrent in time and space with anthropogenic SO2 emissions. The spurious drop in TAS is attributed to the overestimated aerosol concentrations. The aerosol forcing sensitivity cannot well explain the inter-model spread of PHC biases. And the cloud-amount term accounts for most of the inter-model spread in aerosol forcing sensitivity.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Charles D. Koven, Florent Brient, Ben B. B. Booth, Rosie A. Fisher, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 899–918, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Emergent constraints promise a pathway to the reduction in climate projection uncertainties by exploiting ensemble relationships between observable quantities and unknown climate response parameters. This study considers the robustness of these relationships in light of biases and common simplifications that may be present in the original ensemble of climate simulations. We propose a classification scheme for constraints and a number of practical case studies.
Fabienne Maignan, Camille Abadie, Marine Remaud, Linda M. J. Kooijmans, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Róisín Commane, Richard Wehr, J. Elliott Campbell, Sauveur Belviso, Stephen A. Montzka, Nina Raoult, Ulli Seibt, Yoichi P. Shiga, Nicolas Vuichard, Mary E. Whelan, and Philippe Peylin
Biogeosciences, 18, 2917–2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2917-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The assimilation of carbonyl sulfide (COS) by continental vegetation has been proposed as a proxy for gross primary production (GPP). Using a land surface and a transport model, we compare a mechanistic representation of the plant COS uptake (Berry et al., 2013) to the classical leaf relative uptake (LRU) approach linking GPP and vegetation COS fluxes. We show that at high temporal resolutions a mechanistic approach is mandatory, but at large scales the LRU approach compares similarly.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Eleanor J. Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Pierre Friedlingstein, Anna B. Harper, Spencer Liddicoat, Stephen Sitch, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2161–2186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2161-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Limited nitrogen availbility can restrict the growth of plants and their ability to assimilate carbon. It is important to include the impact of this process on the global land carbon cycle. This paper presents a model of the coupled land carbon and nitrogen cycle, which is included within the UK Earth System model to improve projections of climate change and impacts on ecosystems.
Bettina K. Gier, Michael Buchwitz, Maximilian Reuter, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Veronika Eyring
Biogeosciences, 17, 6115–6144, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6115-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6115-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phases 5 and 6 are compared to a satellite data product of column-averaged CO2 mole fractions (XCO2). The previously believed discrepancy of the negative trend in seasonal cycle amplitude in the satellite product, which is not seen in in situ data nor in the models, is attributed to a sampling characteristic. Furthermore, CMIP6 models are shown to have made progress in reproducing the observed XCO2 time series compared to CMIP5.
Arthur P. K. Argles, Jonathan R. Moore, Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Anna B. Harper, Chris D. Jones, and Peter M. Cox
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4067–4089, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4067-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Robust Ecosystem Demography (RED) model simulates cohorts of vegetation through mass classes. RED establishes a framework for representing demographic changes through competition, growth, and mortality across the size distribution of a forest. The steady state of the model can be solved analytically, enabling initialization. When driven by mean growth rates from a land-surface model, RED is able to fit the observed global vegetation map, giving a map of implicit mortality rates.
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
One of the key questions in climate science is how much more heating we will get for a given rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A new generation of models showed that this might be more than previously expected. Comparing the new models to observed temperature rise since 1970, we show that there is no need to revise the estimate upwards. Air pollution, whose effect on climate warming is poorly understood, stopped rising, allowing us to better constrain the greenhouse gas signal.
Simon Jones, Lucy Rowland, Peter Cox, Deborah Hemming, Andy Wiltshire, Karina Williams, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Junjie Liu, Antonio C. L. da Costa, Patrick Meir, Maurizio Mencuccini, and Anna B. Harper
Biogeosciences, 17, 3589–3612, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) are an important set of molecules that help plants to grow and respire when photosynthesis is restricted by extreme climate events. In this paper we present a simple model of NSC storage and assess the effect that it has on simulations of vegetation at the ecosystem scale. Our model has the potential to significantly change predictions of plant behaviour in global vegetation models, which would have large implications for predictions of the future climate.
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Richard Betts, Ben Booth, Peter Challenor, Peter Good, and Andy Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2487–2509, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2487-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the climate model FAMOUS, matching the modelled Amazon rainforest to observations required different land surface parameter settings than for other forests. It was unclear if this discrepancy was due to a bias in the modelled climate or an error in the land surface component of the model. Correcting the climate of the model with a statistical model corrects the simulation of the Amazon forest, suggesting that the land surface component of the model is not the source of the discrepancy.
Jonathan R. Moore, Arthur P. K. Argles, Kai Zhu, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 17, 1013–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The distribution of tree sizes across Amazonia can be fitted very well (for both trunk diameter and tree mass) by a simple equilibrium model assuming power law growth and size-independent mortality. We find tree growth to mirror some aspects of metabolic scaling theory and that there may be a trade-off between fast-growing, short-lived and longer-lived, slow-growing ones. Our Amazon mortality-to-growth ratio is very similar to US temperate forests, hinting at a universal property for trees.
Karina E. Williams, Anna B. Harper, Chris Huntingford, Lina M. Mercado, Camilla T. Mathison, Pete D. Falloon, Peter M. Cox, and Joon Kim
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3207–3240, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3207-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3207-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Data from the First ISLSCP Field Experiment, 1987–1989, is used to assess how well the JULES land-surface model simulates water stress in tallgrass prairie vegetation. We find that JULES simulates a decrease in key carbon and water cycle variables during the dry period, as expected, but that it does not capture the shape of the diurnal cycle on these days. These results will be used to inform future model development as part of wider evaluation efforts.
Ye Liu, Yongkang Xue, Glen MacDonald, Peter Cox, and Zhengqiu Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 9–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-9-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-9-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Climate regime shift during the 1980s identified by abrupt change in temperature, precipitation, etc. had a substantial impact on the ecosystem at different scales. Our paper identifies the spatial and temporal characteristics of the effects of climate variability, global warming, and eCO2 on ecosystem trends before and after the shift. We found about 15 % (20 %) of the global land area had enhanced positive trend (trend sign reversed) during the 1980s due to climate regime shift.
Qianyu Li, Xingjie Lu, Yingping Wang, Xin Huang, Peter M. Cox, and Yiqi Luo
Biogeosciences, 15, 6909–6925, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6909-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6909-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Land-surface models have been widely used to predict the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. A better understanding of model mechanisms that govern terrestrial ecosystem responses to rising atmosphere [CO2] is needed. Our study for the first time shows that the expansion of leaf area under rising [CO2] is the most important response for the stimulation of land carbon accumulation by a land-surface model: CABLE. Processes related to leaf area should be better calibrated.
Jill S. Johnson, Leighton A. Regayre, Masaru Yoshioka, Kirsty J. Pringle, Lindsay A. Lee, David M. H. Sexton, John W. Rostron, Ben B. B. Booth, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13031–13053, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13031-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13031-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We estimate the uncertainty in an aerosol–climate model that has been tuned to match several common types of observations. We used a large set of model simulations and built emulators so that we could generate 4 million “variants” of our climate model. Even after using nine aerosol and cloud observations to constrain the model, the uncertainty remains large. We conclude that estimates of aerosol forcing from multi-model studies are likely to be more uncertain than currently estimated.
Anna B. Harper, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Chris D. Jones, Lina M. Mercado, Stephen Sitch, Karina Williams, and Carolina Duran-Rojas
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2857–2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2857-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Dynamic global vegetation models are used for studying historical and future changes to vegetation and the terrestrial carbon cycle. JULES is a DGVM that represents the land surface in the UK Earth System Model. We compared simulated gross and net primary productivity of vegetation, vegetation distribution, and aspects of the transient carbon cycle to observational datasets. JULES was able to accurately reproduce many aspects of the terrestrial carbon cycle with the recent improvements.
Leighton A. Regayre, Jill S. Johnson, Masaru Yoshioka, Kirsty J. Pringle, David M. H. Sexton, Ben B. B. Booth, Lindsay A. Lee, Nicolas Bellouin, and Kenneth S. Carslaw
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9975–10006, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9975-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9975-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We sample uncertainty in one climate model by perturbing aerosol and physical atmosphere parameters. Our uncertainty is comparable to multi-model studies. Atmospheric parameters cause most of the top-of-atmosphere flux uncertainty; uncertainty in aerosol forcing is mostly caused by aerosols: both are important. The strongest aerosol forcings are inconsistent with top-of-atmosphere flux observations. Better constraint requires observations that share causes of uncertainty with aerosol forcing.
Chris Huntingford, Hui Yang, Anna Harper, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Eleanor J. Burke, Jason A. Lowe, Garry Hayman, William J. Collins, Stephen M. Smith, and Edward Comyn-Platt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 617–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-617-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Recent UNFCCC climate meetings have placed much emphasis on constraining global warming to remain below 2 °C. The 2015 Paris meeting went further and gave an aspiration to fulfil a 1.5 °C threshold. We provide a flexible set of algebraic global temperature profiles that stabilise to either target. This will potentially allow the climate research community to estimate local climatic implications for these temperature profiles, along with emissions trajectories to fulfil them.
Doug McNeall, Jonny Williams, Ben Booth, Richard Betts, Peter Challenor, Andy Wiltshire, and David Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 917–935, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-917-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We compare simulated with observed forests to constrain uncertain input parameters of the land surface component of a climate model.
We find that the model is unlikely to be able to simulate the Amazon and other major forests simultaneously at any one parameter set, suggesting a bias in the model's representation of the Amazon.
We find we cannot constrain parameters individually, but we can rule out large areas of joint parameter space.
Nina M. Raoult, Tim E. Jupp, Peter M. Cox, and Catherine M. Luke
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2833–2852, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2833-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2833-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a set of "optimal" parameter values used to describe the influence of vegetation in a numerical climate model, and the software suite that we developed to find it. Observational data from ~ 100 locations were used, and the optimal parameters improve the fit in 90 % of the locations. The new parameter values will allow the climate model to give better predictions, and our software should prove useful in future calibrations.
Anna B. Harper, Peter M. Cox, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andy J. Wiltshire, Chris D. Jones, Stephen Sitch, Lina M. Mercado, Margriet Groenendijk, Eddy Robertson, Jens Kattge, Gerhard Bönisch, Owen K. Atkin, Michael Bahn, Johannes Cornelissen, Ülo Niinemets, Vladimir Onipchenko, Josep Peñuelas, Lourens Poorter, Peter B. Reich, Nadjeda A. Soudzilovskaia, and Peter van Bodegom
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2415–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2415-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are used to predict the response of vegetation to climate change. We improved the representation of carbon uptake by ecosystems in a DGVM by including a wider range of trade-offs between nutrient allocation to photosynthetic capacity and leaf structure, based on observed plant traits from a worldwide data base. The improved model has higher rates of photosynthesis and net C uptake by plants, and more closely matches observations at site and global scales.
Stefan C. Dekker, Margriet Groenendijk, Ben B. B. Booth, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 525–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-525-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-525-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Our analysis allows us to infer maps of changing plant water-use efficiency (WUE) for 1901–2010, using atmospheric observations of temperature, humidity and CO2. Our estimated increase in global WUE is consistent with the tree-ring and eddy covariance data, but much larger than the historical WUE increases simulated by Earth System Models (ESMs). We therefore conclude that the effects of increasing CO2 on plant WUE are significantly underestimated in the latest climate projections.
Z. A. Thomas, F. Kwasniok, C. A. Boulton, P. M. Cox, R. T. Jones, T. M. Lenton, and C. S. M. Turney
Clim. Past, 11, 1621–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Using a combination of speleothem records and model simulations of the East Asian Monsoon over the penultimate glacial cycle, we search for early warning signals of past tipping points. We detect a characteristic slower response to perturbations prior to an abrupt monsoon shift at the glacial termination; however, we do not detect these signals in the preceding shifts. Our results have important implications for detecting tipping points in palaeoclimate records outside glacial terminations.
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
The Cryosphere, 9, 1505–1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1505-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we use a global land-surface model to study the dynamics of Arctic permafrost. We examine the impact of new and improved processes in the model, namely soil depth and resolution, organic soils, moss and the representation of snow. These improvements make the simulated soil temperatures and thaw depth significantly more realistic. Simulations under future climate scenarios show that permafrost thaws more slowly in the new model version, but still a large amount is lost by 2100.
P. R. Halloran, B. B. B. Booth, C. D. Jones, F. H. Lambert, D. J. McNeall, I. J. Totterdell, and C. Völker
Biogeosciences, 12, 4497–4508, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4497-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4497-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The oceans currently take up around a quarter of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by human activity. While stored in the ocean, this CO2 is not causing global warming. Here we explore high latitude North Atlantic CO2 uptake across a set of climate model simulations, and find that the models show a peak in ocean CO2 uptake around the middle of the century after which time CO2 uptake begins to decline. We identify the causes of this long-term change and interannual variability in the models.
S. Chadburn, E. Burke, R. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1493–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1493-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost, ground that is frozen for 2 or more years, is found extensively in the Arctic. It stores large quantities of carbon, which may be released under climate warming, so it is important to include it in climate models. Here we improve the representation of permafrost in a climate model land-surface scheme, both in the numerical representation of soil and snow, and by adding the effects of organic soils and moss. Site simulations show significantly improved soil temperature and thaw depth.
L. Kwiatkowski, A. Yool, J. I. Allen, T. R. Anderson, R. Barciela, E. T. Buitenhuis, M. Butenschön, C. Enright, P. R. Halloran, C. Le Quéré, L. de Mora, M.-F. Racault, B. Sinha, I. J. Totterdell, and P. M. Cox
Biogeosciences, 11, 7291–7304, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7291-2014, 2014
A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. T. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P. O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vázquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 10, 8305–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013, 2013
B. B. B. Booth, D. Bernie, D. McNeall, E. Hawkins, J. Caesar, C. Boulton, P. Friedlingstein, and D. M. H. Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 95–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-95-2013, 2013
J. H. T. Williams, R. S. Smith, P. J. Valdes, B. B. B. Booth, and A. Osprey
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 141–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-141-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-141-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Topics: Biogeochemical processes | Interactions: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions | Methods: Earth system and climate modeling
A missing link in the carbon cycle: phytoplankton light absorption under RCP emission scenarios
Rémy Asselot, Philip B. Holden, Frank Lunkeit, and Inga Hense
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 875–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton are tiny oceanic algae able to absorb the light penetrating the ocean. The light absorbed by these organisms is re-emitted as heat in the surrounding environment, a process commonly called phytoplankton light absorption (PLA). As a consequence, PLA increases the oceanic temperature. We studied this mechanism with a climate model under different climate scenarios. We show that phytoplankton light absorption is reduced under strong warming scenarios, limiting oceanic warming.
Cited articles
Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the
hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232, 2002. a
Arora, V. K., Katavouta, A., Williams, R. G., Jones, C. D., Brovkin, V., Friedlingstein, P., Schwinger, J., Bopp, L., Boucher, O., Cadule, P., Chamberlain, M. A., Christian, J. R., Delire, C., Fisher, R. A., Hajima, T., Ilyina, T., Joetzjer, E., Kawamiya, M., Koven, C. D., Krasting, J. P., Law, R. M., Lawrence, D. M., Lenton, A., Lindsay, K., Pongratz, J., Raddatz, T., Séférian, R., Tachiiri, K., Tjiputra, J. F., Wiltshire, A., Wu, T., and Ziehn, T.: Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020. a, b
Baldocchi, D., Falge, E., Gu, L., Olson, R., Hollinger, D., Running, S.,
Anthoni, P., Bernhofer, C., Davis, K., Evans, R., Fuentes, J., Goldstein, A., Katul, G., Law, B., Lee, X., Malhi, Y.,
Meyers, T., Munger, W., Oechel, W., Paw U, K. T., Pilegaard, K., Schmid, H. P., Valentini, R.,
Verma, S., Vesala, T., Wilson, K., and Wofsy, S.: FLUXNET: a new
tool to study the temporal and spatial variability of ecosystem-scale carbon
dioxide, water vapor, and energy flux densities, Bull. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 82, 2415–2434, 2001. a
Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Clark, D. B., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Ménard, C. B., Edwards, J. M., Hendry, M. A., Porson, A., Gedney, N., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Cox, P. M., Grimmond, C. S. B., and Harding, R. J.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: Energy and water fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011. a
Booth, B. B., Jones, C. D., Collins, M., Totterdell, I. J., Cox, P. M., Sitch,
S., Huntingford, C., Betts, R. A., Harris, G. R., and Lloyd, J.: High
sensitivity of future global warming to land carbon cycle processes,
Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 024002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024002, 2012. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o
Byrd, R. H., Lu, P., Nocedal, J., and Zhu, C.: A limited memory algorithm for bound
constrained optimization, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 16, 1190–1208, https://doi.org/10.1137/0916069, 1995. a
Canadell, J. G., Monteiro, P. M. S., Costa, M. H., Cunha, L. C. D., Cox, P. M., Eliseev, A. V.,
Henson, S., Ishii, M., Jaccard, S., Koven, C., Lohila, A., Patra, P. K., Piao, S., Syampungani, S.,
Zaehle, S., Zickfeld, K., Alexandrov, G. A., Bala, G., Bopp, L., Boysen, L., Cao, L., Chandra, N.,
Ciais, P., Denisov, S. N., Dentener, F. J., Douville, H., Fay, A., Forster, P., Fox-Kemper, B.,
Friedlingstein, P., Fu, W., Fuss, S., Garçon, V., Gier, B., Gillett, N. P., Gregor, L., Haustein, K.,
Haverd, V., He, J., Hewitt, H. T., Hoffman, F. M., Ilyina, T., Jackson, R., Jones, C., Keller, D. P.,
Kwiatkowski, L., Lamboll, R. D., Lan, X., Laufkötter, C., Le Quéré, C., Lenton, A., Lewis, J.,
Liddicoat, S., Lorenzoni, L., Lovenduski, N., Macdougall, A. H., Mathesius, S., Matthews, D. H.,
Meinshausen, M., Mokhov, I. I., Naik, V., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Nurhati, I. S., O’Sullivan, M., Peters,
G., Pongratz, J., Poulter, B., Sallée, J.-B., Saunois, M., Schuur, E. A. G., Seneviratne, S. I.,
Stavert, A., Suntharalingam, P., Tachiiri, K., Terhaar, J., Thompson, R., Tian, H., Turnbull, J.,
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Wang, X., Wanninkhof, R. H., Williamson, P., Brovkin, V., Feely, R. A.,
and Lebehot, A. D.: Global
carbon and other biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks, IPCC AR6 WGI, Final Government Distribution, chapter 5, hal-03336145,
2021. a, b
Chapin, F. S., Callaghan, T. V., Bergeron, Y., Fukuda, M., Johnstone, J.,
Juday, G., and Zimov, S.: Global change and the boreal forest: thresholds,
shifting states or gradual change?, AMBIO, 33, 361–365, 2004. a
Clark, D. B., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Jones, C. D., Gedney, N., Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Harding, R. J., Huntingford, C., and Cox, P. M.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 701–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011, 2011. a
Claussen, M., Brovkin, V., and Ganopolski, A.: Africa: Greening of the Sahara, in: Challenges of a Changing Earth. Global Change –
The IGBP Series, edited by: Steffen, W.,
Jäger, J., Carson, D. J., and Bradshaw, C., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19016-2_23, 2002. a
Collatz, G. J., Ball, J. T., Grivet, C., and Berry, J. A.: Physiological and
environmental regulation of stomatal conductance, photosynthesis and
transpiration: a model that includes a laminar boundary layer, Agr.
Forest Meteorol., 54, 107–136, 1991. a
Collatz, G. J., Ribas-Carbo, M., and Berry, J. A.: Coupled
photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model for leaves of C4 plants, Funct.
Plant Biol., 19, 519–538, 1992. a
Cox, P., Betts, R., Bunton, C., Essery, R., Rowntree, P., and Smith, J.: The
impact of new land surface physics on the GCM simulation of climate and
climate sensitivity, Clim. Dynam., 15, 183–203, 1999. a
Cox, P. M., Betts, R., Collins, M., Harris, P. P., Huntingford, C., and Jones,
C.: Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the
21st century, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 78, 137–156, 2004. a
Cox, P. M., Pearson, D., Booth, B. B., Friedlingstein, P., Huntingford, C.,
Jones, C. D., and Luke, C. M.: Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate
change constrained by carbon dioxide variability, Nature, 494, 341–344, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11882, 2013. a, b, c
Cox, P. M., Huntingford, C., and Williamson, M. S.: Emergent constraint on
equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability, Nature,
553, 319–322, 2018. a
Field, C. B., Randerson, J. T., and Malmström, C. M.: Global net primary
production: combining ecology and remote sensing, Remote Sens.
Environ., 51, 74–88, 1995. a
Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R., Bopp, L., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Doney, S.,
Eby, M., Fung, I., Bala, G., John, J., Jones, C., Joos, F., Kato, T., Kawamiya, M., Knorr, W.,
Lindsay, K., Matthews, H. D., Raddatz, T., Rayner, P., Reick, C., Roeckner, E., Schnitzler, K.-G.,
Schnur, R., Strassmann, K., Weaver, A. J., Yoshikawa, C., and Zeng, N.: Climate–carbon cycle
feedback analysis: results from the C4MIP model intercomparison, J.
Clim., 19, 3337–3353, 2006. a, b, c
Huang, M., Piao, S., Ciais, P., Peñuelas, J., Wang, X., Keenan, T. F., Peng, S., Berry, J. A.,
Wang, K., Mao, J., Alkama, R., Cescatti, A., Cuntz, M., De Deurwaerder, H., Gao, M., He, Y.,
Liu, Y., Luo, Y., Myneni, R. B., Niu, S., Shi, X., Yuan, W., Verbeeck, H., Wang, T., Wu, J., and
Janssens, I. A.: Air temperature optima of
vegetation productivity across global biomes, Nat. Ecol. Evol., 3,
772–779, 2019. a, b
Huntingford, C., Booth, B. B. B., Sitch, S., Gedney, N., Lowe, J. A., Liddicoat, S. K., Mercado, L. M., Best, M. J., Weedon, G. P., Fisher, R. A., Lomas, M. R., Good, P., Zelazowski, P., Everitt, A. C., Spessa, A. C., and Jones, C. D.: IMOGEN: an intermediate complexity model to evaluate terrestrial impacts of a changing climate, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 679–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-679-2010, 2010. a
Medlyn, B. E., Badeck, F. W., De Pury, D. G. G., Barton, C. V. M., Broadmeadow, M., Ceulemans,
R., De Angelis, P., Forstreuter, M., Jach, M. E., Kellomäki, S., Laitat, E., Marek, M., Philippot, S.,
Rey. A., Strassemeyer, J., Laitinen, K., Liozon, R., Portier, B., Roberntz, P., Wang, K., and Jarvis,
P. G.: Effects of elevated [CO2] on photosynthesis in European forest
species: a meta-analysis of model parameters, Plant Cell Environ., 22,
1475–1495, 1999. a
Mercado, L. M., Medlyn, B. E., Huntingford, C., Oliver, R. J., Clark, D. B.,
Sitch, S., Zelazowski, P., Kattge, J., Harper, A. B., and Cox, P. M.: Large
sensitivity in land carbon storage due to geographical and temporal variation
in the thermal response of photosynthetic capacity, New Phytol., 218,
1462–1477, 2018. a
Papale, D., Reichstein, M., Aubinet, M., Canfora, E., Bernhofer, C., Kutsch, W., Longdoz, B., Rambal, S., Valentini, R., Vesala, T., and Yakir, D.: Towards a standardized processing of Net Ecosystem Exchange measured with eddy covariance technique: algorithms and uncertainty estimation, Biogeosciences, 3, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-3-571-2006, 2006. a
Pinnington, E., Quaife, T., Lawless, A., Williams, K., Arkebauer, T., and Scoby, D.: The Land Variational Ensemble Data Assimilation Framework: LAVENDAR v1.0.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 55–69, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-55-2020, 2020. a
Raoult, N.: NRaoult/adJULES: adJULES with Emergent Constraints (v1.1_adJULES_with_Emergent_Constraints), Zenodo [code, data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8143078, 2023.
a
Trenberth, K. E.: Changes in precipitation with climate change, Clim.
Res., 47, 123–138, 2011. a
Wenzel, S., Cox, P. M., Eyring, V., and Friedlingstein, P.: Emergent
constraints on climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in the CMIP5 Earth system
models, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 119, 794–807, 2014. a
Williamson, M. S., Thackeray, C. W., Cox, P. M., Hall, A., Huntingford, C., and
Nijsse, F. J.: Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities, Rev.
Modern Phys., 93, 025004, https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004, 2021. a, b
Short summary
Climate models are used to predict the impact of climate change. However, poorly constrained parameters used in the physics of the models mean that we simulate a large spread of possible future outcomes. We can use real-world observations to reduce the uncertainty of parameter values, but we do not have observations to reduce the spread of possible future outcomes directly. We present a method for translating the reduction in parameter uncertainty into a reduction in possible model projections.
Climate models are used to predict the impact of climate change. However, poorly constrained...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint