Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-723-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-723-2023
Research article
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17 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 17 Jul 2023

Combining local model calibration with the emergent constraint approach to reduce uncertainty in the tropical land carbon cycle feedback

Nina Raoult, Tim Jupp, Ben Booth, and Peter Cox

Data sets

NRaoult/adJULES: adJULES with Emergent Constraints (v1.1_adJULES_with_Emergent_Constraints) Nina Raoult https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8143078

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Short summary
Climate models are used to predict the impact of climate change. However, poorly constrained parameters used in the physics of the models mean that we simulate a large spread of possible future outcomes. We can use real-world observations to reduce the uncertainty of parameter values, but we do not have observations to reduce the spread of possible future outcomes directly. We present a method for translating the reduction in parameter uncertainty into a reduction in possible model projections.
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