Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-723-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-723-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
Research article
 | 
17 Jul 2023
Research article |  | 17 Jul 2023

Combining local model calibration with the emergent constraint approach to reduce uncertainty in the tropical land carbon cycle feedback

Nina Raoult, Tim Jupp, Ben Booth, and Peter Cox

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Latest update: 30 Oct 2025
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Short summary
Climate models are used to predict the impact of climate change. However, poorly constrained parameters used in the physics of the models mean that we simulate a large spread of possible future outcomes. We can use real-world observations to reduce the uncertainty of parameter values, but we do not have observations to reduce the spread of possible future outcomes directly. We present a method for translating the reduction in parameter uncertainty into a reduction in possible model projections.
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