Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
Research article
28 Mar 2023
Research article |  | 28 Mar 2023

The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty

Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

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Cited articles

Allen, M. R., Dube, O. P., Solecki, W., Aragoìn-Durand, F., Cramer, W., Humphreys, S., Kainuma, M., Kala, J., Mahowald, N., Mulugetta, Y., Perez, R., Wairiu, M., and Zickfeld, K.: Framing and Context, in: Global Warming of 1.5 C, An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, Vol. 2,, 2018. 
Andrews, T. M., Delton, A. W., and Kline, R.: Anticipating moral hazard undermines climate mitigation in an experimental geoengineering game, Ecol. Econ., 196, 107421,, 2022. 
Arino, Y., Akimoto, K., Sano, F., Homma, T., Oda, J., and Tomoda, T.: Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 5886–5891,, 2016. 
Asayama, S. and Hulme, M.: Engineering climate debt: temperature overshoot and peak-shaving as risky subprime mortgage lending, Clim. Policy, 19, 937–946,, 2019. 
Austin, M. M. K. and Converse, B. A.: In search of weakened resolve: Does climate-engineering awareness decrease individuals' commitment to mitigation?, J. Environ. Psychol., 78, 101690,, 2021. 
Short summary
Solar radiation modification (SRM) artificially cools global temperature without acting on the cause of climate change. This study looks at how long SRM would have to be deployed to limit warming to 1.5 °C and how this timeframe is affected by different levels of mitigation, negative emissions and climate uncertainty. None of the three factors alone can guarantee short SRM deployment. Due to their uncertainty at the time of SRM initialization, any deployment risks may be several centuries long.
Final-revised paper