Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
Research article
28 Mar 2023
Research article |  | 28 Mar 2023

The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty

Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

Data sets

AR6 Scenarios Database E. Byers, V. Krey, E. Kriegler K. Riahi, R. Schaeffer, J. Kikstra, R. Lamboll, Z. Nicholls, M. Sanstad, C. Smith, K. I. van der Wijst, A. Al Khourdajie, F. Lecocq, J. Portugal-Pereira, Y. Saheb, A. Strømann, H. Winkler, C. Auer, E. Brutschin, M. Gidden, P. Hackstock, M. Harmsen, D. Huppmann, P. Kolp, C. Lepault, J. Lewis, G. Marangoni, E. Müller-Casseres, R. Skeie, M. Werning, K. Calvin, P. Forster, C. Guivarch, T. Hasegawa, M. Meinshausen, G. Peters, J. Rogelj, B. Samset, J. Steinberger, M. Tavoni, and D. van Vuuren

Model code and software

susannebaur/deployment-length-srm: Clean version Susanne Baur and Nicholls Zebedee

Short summary
Solar radiation modification (SRM) artificially cools global temperature without acting on the cause of climate change. This study looks at how long SRM would have to be deployed to limit warming to 1.5 °C and how this timeframe is affected by different levels of mitigation, negative emissions and climate uncertainty. None of the three factors alone can guarantee short SRM deployment. Due to their uncertainty at the time of SRM initialization, any deployment risks may be several centuries long.
Final-revised paper