The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty

Baur, Susanne; Nauels, Alexander; Nicholls, Zebedee; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-367-2023

Articles | Volume 14, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-367-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-367-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 14, issue 2

Research article

|

28 Mar 2023

Research article |

| 28 Mar 2023

The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty

Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-367-2023-supplement

Data sets

AR6 Scenarios Database E. Byers, V. Krey, E. Kriegler K. Riahi, R. Schaeffer, J. Kikstra, R. Lamboll, Z. Nicholls, M. Sanstad, C. Smith, K. I. van der Wijst, A. Al Khourdajie, F. Lecocq, J. Portugal-Pereira, Y. Saheb, A. Strømann, H. Winkler, C. Auer, E. Brutschin, M. Gidden, P. Hackstock, M. Harmsen, D. Huppmann, P. Kolp, C. Lepault, J. Lewis, G. Marangoni, E. Müller-Casseres, R. Skeie, M. Werning, K. Calvin, P. Forster, C. Guivarch, T. Hasegawa, M. Meinshausen, G. Peters, J. Rogelj, B. Samset, J. Steinberger, M. Tavoni, and D. van Vuuren https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7197970

Model code and software

susannebaur/deployment-length-srm: Clean version Susanne Baur and Nicholls Zebedee https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7707967

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Short summary

Solar radiation modification (SRM) artificially cools global temperature without acting on the cause of climate change. This study looks at how long SRM would have to be deployed to limit warming to 1.5 °C and how this timeframe is affected by different levels of mitigation, negative emissions and climate uncertainty. None of the three factors alone can guarantee short SRM deployment. Due to their uncertainty at the time of SRM initialization, any deployment risks may be several centuries long.