Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Research article
28 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 28 Jul 2022

Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario

Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra

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Cited articles

Arora, V. K., Katavouta, A., Williams, R. G., Jones, C. D., Brovkin, V., Friedlingstein, P., Schwinger, J., Bopp, L., Boucher, O., Cadule, P., Chamberlain, M. A., Christian, J. R., Delire, C., Fisher, R. A., Hajima, T., Ilyina, T., Joetzjer, E., Kawamiya, M., Koven, C. D., Krasting, J. P., Law, R. M., Lawrence, D. M., Lenton, A., Lindsay, K., Pongratz, J., Raddatz, T., Séférian, R., Tachiiri, K., Tjiputra, J. F., Wiltshire, A., Wu, T., and Ziehn, T.: Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222,, 2020. a
Battisti, D. S., Vimont, D. J., and Kirtman, B. P.: 100 Years of Progress in Understanding the Dynamics of Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Variability, Meteor. Mon., 59, 8.1–8.57,, 2019. a
Bellenger, H., Guilyardi, É., Leloup, J., Lengaigne, M., and Vialard, J.: ENSO representation in climate models: From CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 42, 1999–2018,, 2014. a
Bentsen, M., Oliviè, D. J. L., Seland, y., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O. A., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: NCC NorESM2-MM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical,, 2019. a
Betts, R. A., Burton, C. A., Feely, R. A., Collins, M., Jones, C. D., and Wiltshire, A. J.: ENSO and the Carbon Cycle, in: El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate, edited by: McPhaden, M. J., Santoso, A., and Cai, W., chap. 20, 453–470,, 2020. a
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Final-revised paper