Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Research article
 | 
28 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 28 Jul 2022

Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario

Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022-supplement

Data sets

Decadal variations and trends of the global ocean car- bon sink; https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/ocean-carbon-data-system/oceans/SPCO2_1982_2015_ETH_SOM_FFN.html Peter Landschützer, Nicolas Gruber, and Dorothee C. E. Bakker https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005359

JRA-55: Japanese 55-year Reanalysis, Monthly Means and Variances Japan Meteorological Agency https://doi.org/10.5065/D60G3H5B

The ECMWF operational ensemble reanalysis-analysis system for ocean and sea ice: a description of the system and assessment; https://www.cen.uni-hamburg.de/ icdc/data/ocean/easy-init-ocean/ecmwf-oras5.html Hao Zuo, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Steffen Tietsche, Kristian Mogensen, and Michael Mayer https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-779-2019

Mapped Observation-Based Oceanic Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC), monthly climatology from January to December (based on observations between 2004 and 2017) L. Keppler, P. Landschützer, N. Gruber, S. K. Lauvset, and I. Stemmler https://doi.org/10.25921/yvzj-zx46

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Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
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