Articles | Volume 12, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region
Institute of Coastal System Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz
Zentrum Hereon, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
Inga Dailidienė
Klaipeda University, Marine Research Institute, Klaipeda 92294,
Lithuania
Birgit Hünicke
Institute of Coastal System Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz
Zentrum Hereon, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
Kimmo Kahma
Finnish Meteorological Institute, 00560 Helsinki, Finland
Kristine Madsen
Danish Meteorological Institute, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Anders Omstedt
University of Gothenburg, Department of Marine Sciences,
405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
Kevin Parnell
Tallinn University of Technology, School of Science, Department of
Cybernetics, 12618 Tallinn, Estonia
Tilo Schöne
German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Tarmo Soomere
Tallinn University of Technology, School of Science, Department of
Cybernetics, 12618 Tallinn, Estonia
Wenyan Zhang
Institute of Coastal System Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz
Zentrum Hereon, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
Eduardo Zorita
Institute of Coastal System Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz
Zentrum Hereon, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
Related authors
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2137–2154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2137-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events, and no clear trend can be identified. Often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
Daniel Krieger and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-111, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze storms over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the German Bight and how their statistics change over past, present, and future. We look at data from many different climate model runs that cover a variety of possible future climate states. We find that storms are generally predicted to be weaker in the future, even though the wind directions that typically happen during storms occur more frequently. We also find that the most extreme storms may become more likely than nowadays.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
Ina Teutsch, Markus Brühl, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2053–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rogue waves exceed twice the significant wave height. They occur more often than expected in the shallow waters off Norderney. When applying a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation to wave data from Norderney, we found differences in the soliton spectra of time series with and without rogue waves. A strongly outstanding soliton in the spectrum indicated an enhanced probability for rogue waves. We could attribute spectral solitons to the measured rogue waves.
Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, Corinna Schrum, Ute Daewel, and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1967–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High seawater levels co-occurring with high river discharges have the potential to cause destructive flooding. For the past decades, the number of such compound events was larger than expected by pure chance for most of the west-facing coasts in Europe. Additionally rivers with smaller catchments showed higher numbers. In most cases, such events were associated with a large-scale weather pattern characterized by westerly winds and strong rainfall.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3993–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Ralf Weisse, Iris Grabemann, Birger Tinz, and Robert Scholz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2419–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Xin Liu, Insa Meinke, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 97–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-97-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Storm surges represent a threat to low-lying coastal areas. In the aftermath of severe events, it is often discussed whether the events were unusual. Such information is not readily available from observations but needs contextualization with long-term statistics. An approach that provides such information in near real time was developed and implemented for the German coast. It is shown that information useful for public and scientific debates can be provided in near real time.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, Jens Moeller, and Oliver Krueger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2665–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2665-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2665-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rogue waves pose a threat to marine operations and structures. Typically, a wave is called a rogue wave when its height exceeds twice that of the surrounding waves. There is still discussion on the extent to which such waves are unusual. A new data set of about 329 million waves from the southern North Sea was analyzed. While data from wave buoys mostly corresponded to expectations from known distributions, radar measurements showed some deviations pointing towards higher rogue wave frequencies.
Hedi Kanarik, Laura Tuomi, Pekka Alenius, Elina Miettunen, Milla Johansson, Tuomo Roine, Antti Westerlund, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Ocean Sci., 21, 2125–2147, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2125-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2125-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Archipelago Sea (AS), part of the Baltic Sea off the northwest coast of Finland, is a fragmented area with intense human activity. This study presents an overview of the observed currents and their main drivers in the area. While local winds primarily drive the AS currents, simultaneous sea level variations in the Bay of Bothnia and Gulf of Finland also significantly impact the area's dynamics.
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2137–2154, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2137-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2137-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events, and no clear trend can be identified. Often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
Jakub Miluch, Wenyan Zhang, Jan Harff, Andreas Groh, Peter Arlinghaus, and Celine Denker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 585–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present a high-resolution paleogeographic reconstruction of the Baltic Sea for the Holocene period by combining eustatic sea-level change, glacio-isostatic movement, and sediment dynamics. In the northeastern part, morphological change is dominated by regression caused by post-glacial rebound that outpaces the eustatic sea level rise, whereas a transgression, together with active sediment erosion/deposition, constantly shapes the coastal morphology in the southeastern part.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1139–1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We designed a tool to predict the storm surges at the Baltic Sea coast with satisfactory predictability (80 % correct predictions), using lead times of a few days. The proportion of false warnings is typically as low as 10 % to 20 %. We were able to identify the relevant predictor regions and their patterns – such as low-pressure systems and strong winds. Due to its short computing time, the method can be used as a pre-warning system to trigger the application of more sophisticated algorithms.
Tarmo Soomere, Mikołaj Zbigniew Jankowski, Maris Eelsalu, Kevin Ellis Parnell, and Maija Viška
Ocean Sci., 21, 619–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-619-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-619-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Seemingly interconnected beaches are often separated by human-made obstacles and natural divergence areas of sediment flux. We decompose the sedimentary shores of the Gulf of Riga into five naturally almost isolated compartments based on the analysis of wave-driven sediment flux. The western, southern, and eastern shores have quite different and fragmented sediment transport regimes. The transport rates along different shore segments show extensive interannual variations but no explicit trends.
Daniel Krieger and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-111, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze storms over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the German Bight and how their statistics change over past, present, and future. We look at data from many different climate model runs that cover a variety of possible future climate states. We find that storms are generally predicted to be weaker in the future, even though the wind directions that typically happen during storms occur more frequently. We also find that the most extreme storms may become more likely than nowadays.
Jialing Yao, Zhi Chen, Jianzhong Ge, and Wenyan Zhang
Biogeosciences, 21, 5435–5455, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5435-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The transformation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in estuaries is vital for coastal carbon cycling. We studied source-to-sink pathways of DOC in the Changjiang Estuary using a physics–biogeochemistry model. Results showed a transition of DOC from a sink to a source in the plume area during summer, with a transition from terrestrial-dominant to marine-dominant DOC. Terrigenous and marine DOC exports account for about 31 % and 69 %, respectively.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Lucas Porz, Wenyan Zhang, Nils Christiansen, Jan Kossack, Ute Daewel, and Corinna Schrum
Biogeosciences, 21, 2547–2570, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Seafloor sediments store a large amount of carbon, helping to naturally regulate Earth's climate. If disturbed, some sediment particles can turn into CO2, but this effect is not well understood. Using computer simulations, we found that bottom-contacting fishing gears release about 1 million tons of CO2 per year in the North Sea, one of the most heavily fished regions globally. We show how protecting certain areas could reduce these emissions while also benefitting seafloor-living animals.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
Peter Arlinghaus, Corinna Schrum, Ingrid Kröncke, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 537–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Benthos is recognized to strongly influence sediment stability, deposition, and erosion. This is well studied on small scales, but large-scale impact on morphological change is largely unknown. We quantify the large-scale impact of benthos by modeling the evolution of a tidal basin. Results indicate a profound impact of benthos by redistributing sediments on large scales. As confirmed by measurements, including benthos significantly improves model results compared to an abiotic scenario.
Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1765–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reconstructions of climate variability before the observational period rely on climate proxies and sophisticated statistical models to link the proxy information and climate variability. Existing models tend to underestimate the true magnitude of variability, especially if the proxies contain non-climatic noise. We present and test a promising new framework for climate-index reconstructions, based on Gaussian processes, which reconstructs robust variability estimates from noisy and sparse data.
Nele Tim, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-147, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Our study analyses extreme precipitation over southern Africa in regional high-resolution atmospheric simulations of the past and future. We investigated heavy precipitation over Southern Africa, coastal South Africa, Cape Town, and the KwaZulu-Natal province in eastern South Africa. Coastal precipitation extremes are projected to intensify, double in intensity in KwaZulu-Natal, and weaken in Cape Town. Extremes are not projected to occur more often in the 21st century than in the last decades.
Ina Teutsch, Markus Brühl, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2053–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rogue waves exceed twice the significant wave height. They occur more often than expected in the shallow waters off Norderney. When applying a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation to wave data from Norderney, we found differences in the soliton spectra of time series with and without rogue waves. A strongly outstanding soliton in the spectrum indicated an enhanced probability for rogue waves. We could attribute spectral solitons to the measured rogue waves.
Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, Corinna Schrum, Ute Daewel, and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1967–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High seawater levels co-occurring with high river discharges have the potential to cause destructive flooding. For the past decades, the number of such compound events was larger than expected by pure chance for most of the west-facing coasts in Europe. Additionally rivers with smaller catchments showed higher numbers. In most cases, such events were associated with a large-scale weather pattern characterized by westerly winds and strong rainfall.
Elin Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel, and Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1817–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify extreme sea levels, such as when a storm occurs at a time when the water level is already higher than usual. We used numerical modelling of a record-breaking storm surge in 1872 to show that other prior sea-level conditions could have further worsened the outcome. Our research highlights the need to consider the physical context of extreme sea levels in measures to reduce coastal flood risk.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Birgit Hünicke, and Ioana Ivanciu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 381–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-381-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As stated by the IPCC, southern Africa is one of the two land regions that are projected to suffer from the strongest precipitation reductions in the future. Simulated drying in this region is linked to the adjacent oceans, and prevailing winds as warm and moist air masses are transported towards the continent. Precipitation trends in past and future climate can be partly attributed to the strength of the Agulhas Current system, the current along the east and south coasts of southern Africa.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-21, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The prediction of extreme coastal sea level, e.g. caused by a storm surge, is operationally carried out with dynamical computer models. These models are expensive to run and still display some limitations in predicting the height of extremes. We present a successful purely data-driven machine learning model to predict extreme sea levels along the Baltic Sea coast a few days in advance. The method is also able to identify the critical predictors for the different Baltic Sea regions.
Zeguo Zhang, Sebastian Wagner, Marlene Klockmann, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 18, 2643–2668, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network was employed for the first time for past temperature field reconstructions. The LSTM method tested in our experiments using a limited calibration and validation dataset shows worse reconstruction skills compared to traditional reconstruction methods. However, a certain degree of reconstruction performance achieved by the nonlinear LSTM method shows that skill can be achieved even when using small samples with limited datasets.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3993–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Ralf Weisse, Iris Grabemann, Birger Tinz, and Robert Scholz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2419–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Milla M. Johansson, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Jani Särkkä, Ulpu Leijala, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 813–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-813-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-813-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed the correlation of sea level and wind waves at a coastal location in the Gulf of Finland using tide gauge data, wave measurements, and wave simulations. The correlation was positive for southwesterly winds and negative for northeasterly winds. Probabilities of high total water levels (sea level + wave crest) are underestimated if sea level and waves are considered independent. Suitably chosen copula functions can account for the dependence.
Andreas Lehmann, Kai Myrberg, Piia Post, Irina Chubarenko, Inga Dailidiene, Hans-Harald Hinrichsen, Karin Hüssy, Taavi Liblik, H. E. Markus Meier, Urmas Lips, and Tatiana Bukanova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 373–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-373-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The salinity in the Baltic Sea is not only an important topic for physical oceanography as such, but it also integrates the complete water and energy cycle. It is a primary external driver controlling ecosystem dynamics of the Baltic Sea. The long-term dynamics are controlled by river runoff, net precipitation, and the water mass exchange between the North Sea and Baltic Sea. On shorter timescales, the ephemeral atmospheric conditions drive a very complex and highly variable salinity regime.
Xin Liu, Insa Meinke, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 97–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-97-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-97-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Storm surges represent a threat to low-lying coastal areas. In the aftermath of severe events, it is often discussed whether the events were unusual. Such information is not readily available from observations but needs contextualization with long-term statistics. An approach that provides such information in near real time was developed and implemented for the German coast. It is shown that information useful for public and scientific debates can be provided in near real time.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Jari Walden, Liisa Pirjola, Tuomas Laurila, Juha Hatakka, Heidi Pettersson, Tuomas Walden, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Harri Nordlund, Toivo Truuts, Miika Meretoja, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 18175–18194, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18175-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ship emissions play an important role in the deposition of gaseous compounds and nanoparticles (Ntot), affecting climate, human health (especially in coastal areas), and eutrophication. Micrometeorological methods showed that ship emissions were mainly responsible for the deposition of Ntot, whereas they only accounted for a minor proportion of CO2 deposition. An uncertainty analysis applied to the fluxes and fuel sulfur content results demonstrated the reliability of the results.
Pia Nielsen-Englyst, Jacob L. Høyer, Kristine S. Madsen, Rasmus T. Tonboe, Gorm Dybkjær, and Sotirios Skarpalezos
The Cryosphere, 15, 3035–3057, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3035-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3035-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic region is responding heavily to climate change, and yet, the air temperature of Arctic ice-covered areas is heavily under-sampled when it comes to in situ measurements. This paper presents a method for estimating daily mean 2 m air temperatures (T2m) in the Arctic from satellite observations of skin temperature, providing spatially detailed observations of the Arctic. The satellite-derived T2m product covers clear-sky snow and ice surfaces in the Arctic for the period 2000–2009.
Nadezhda Kudryavtseva, Tarmo Soomere, and Rain Männikus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1279–1296, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate a finding of a very sudden change in the nature of water level extremes in the Gulf of Riga which coincides with weakening of correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation. The shape of the distribution is variable with time; it abruptly changed for several years and was suddenly restored. If similar sudden changes happen in other places in the world, not taking into account the non-stationarity can lead to significant underestimation of future risks from extreme-water-level events.
Oliver Bothe and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 17, 721–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-721-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-721-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The similarity between indirect observations of past climates and information from climate simulations can increase our understanding of past climates. The further we look back, the more uncertain our indirect observations become. Here, we discuss the technical background for such a similarity-based approach to reconstruct past climates for up to the last 15 000 years. We highlight the potential and the problems.
Cornelia Zech, Tilo Schöne, Julia Illigner, Nico Stolarczuk, Torsten Queißer, Matthias Köppl, Heiko Thoss, Alexander Zubovich, Azamat Sharshebaev, Kakhramon Zakhidov, Khurshid Toshpulatov, Yusufjon Tillayev, Sukhrob Olimov, Zabihullah Paiman, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Abror Gafurov, and Bolot Moldobekov
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1289–1306, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1289-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1289-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The regional research network Water in Central Asia (CAWa) funded by the German Federal Foreign Office consists of 18 remotely operated multi-parameter stations (ROMPSs) in Central Asia, and they are operated by German and Central Asian institutes and national hydrometeorological services. They provide up to 10 years of raw meteorological and hydrological data, especially in remote areas with extreme climate conditions, for applications in climate and water monitoring in Central Asia.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, Jens Moeller, and Oliver Krueger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2665–2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2665-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2665-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Rogue waves pose a threat to marine operations and structures. Typically, a wave is called a rogue wave when its height exceeds twice that of the surrounding waves. There is still discussion on the extent to which such waves are unusual. A new data set of about 329 million waves from the southern North Sea was analyzed. While data from wave buoys mostly corresponded to expectations from known distributions, radar measurements showed some deviations pointing towards higher rogue wave frequencies.
Cited articles
Albrecht, F., Wahl, T., Jensen, J., and Weisse, R.: Determining sea level
change in the German Bight, Ocean Dynam., 61, 2037–2050,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-011-0462-z, 2011.
Arns, A., Wahl, T., Dangendorf, S., and Jensen, J.: The impact of sea level
rise on storm surge water levels in the northern part of the German Bight,
Coast. Eng., 96, 118–131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.12.002, 2015.
Ashton, A., Murray, A. B., and Arnault, O.: Formation of coastline features
by large-scale instabilities induced by high-angle waves, Nature, 414,
296–300, https://doi.org/10.1038/35104541, 2001.
Averkiev, A. S. and Klevannyy, K. A.: A case study of the impact of cyclonic
trajectories on sea-level extremes in the Gulf of Finland, Cont. Shelf Res., 30, 707–714, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2009.10.010, 2010.
BACC Author Team (Ed.): Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin, Regional Climate Studies, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008.
BACC II Author Team (Ed.): Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin, Regional Climate Studies, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 2015.
Bamber, J. L., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R. E., Aspinall, W. P., and Cooke, R.
M.: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert
judgment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 11195–11200, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116, 2019.
Barbosa, S. M.: Quantile trends in Baltic sea level, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035182, 2008.
BIFROST project members: GPS measurements to constrain geodynamic processes
in Fennoscandia, Eos Trans. AGU, 77, 337–341, https://doi.org/10.1029/96EO00233, 1996.
Björkqvist, J.-V., Tuomi, L., Fortelius, C., Pettersson, H., Tikka, K., and Kahma, K. K.: Improved estimates of nearshore wave conditions in the
Gulf of Finland, J. Mar. Syst., 171, 43–53,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2016.07.005, 2017.
Björkqvist, J.-V., Lukas, I., Alari, V., van Vledder, G. P., Hulst, S.,
Pettersson, H., Behrens, A., and Männik, A.: Comparing a 41-year model
hindcast with decades of wave measurements from the Baltic Sea, Ocean Eng., 152, 57–71, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.01.048, 2018.
Björkqvist, J.-V., Rikka, S., Alari, V., Männik, A., Tuomi, L., and
Pettersson, H.: Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: A Baltic Sea case study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20,
3593–3609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3593-2020, 2020.
Bogdanov, V. I., Medvedev, M. Y., Solodov, V. A., Trapeznikov, Y. A., Troshkov, G. A., and Trubitsina, A. A.: Mean monthly series of sea level
observations (1777–1993) at the Kronstadt gauge, Reports of the Finnish
Geodetic Institute, 2000, 1, Geodeettinen Laitos, Kirkkonummi, 34 pp., 2000.
Börgel, F., Frauen, C., Neumann, T., Schimanke, S., and Meier, H. E. M.:
Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Baltic Sea Variability,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 9880–9888, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078943, 2018.
Brenninkmeyer, B. M.: Cut and fill, in: Beaches and Coastal Geology, edited by: Schwartz, M., Springer US, New York, NY, 1984.
Broman, B., Hammarklint, T., Rannat, K., Soomere, T., and Valdmann, A.: Trends and extremes of wave fields in the north–eastern part of the Baltic
Proper, Oceanologia, 48, 165–184, 2006.
Caliskan, H. and Valle-Levinson, A.: Wind-wave transformations in an elongated bay, Cont. Shelf Res., 28, 1702–1710, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2008.03.009, 2008.
Carrère, L. and Lyard, F.: Modeling the barotropic response of the
global ocean to atmospheric wind and pressure forcing – comparisons with
observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1275, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016473, 2003.
Carrere, L., Faugère, Y., and Ablain, M.: Major improvement of altimetry sea level estimations using pressure-derived corrections based on ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis, Ocean Sci., 12, 825–842, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-825-2016, 2016.
Celsius, A.: Anmärkning om vattnets förminskande så I
Östersiön som Vesterhafvet, Kongl. Swenska Wetenskaps Academiens,
Handlingar, 33–50, 1743.
Chen, D. and Omstedt, A.: Climate-induced variability of sea level in Stockholm: Influence of air temperature and atmospheric circulation, Adv.
Atmos. Sci., 22, 655–664, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02918709, 2005.
Christensen, O. B., Kjellström, E., and Zorita, E.: Projected Change – Atmosphere, in: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin, Regional Climate Studies, edited by: The BACC II Author Team, Springer, Cham, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_11, 2015.
Cieślikiewicz, W. and Paplińska-Swerpel, B.: A 44-year hindcast of wind wave fields over the Baltic Sea, Coast. Eng., 55, 894–905,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2008.02.017, 2008.
Cooper, J. A. G. and Pilkey, O. H.: Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: Time to abandon the Bruun Rule, Global Planet. Change, 43, 157–171,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.07.001, 2004.
Cooper, J. A. G., Masselink, G., Coco, G., Short, A. D., Castelle, B., Rogers, K., Anthony, E., Green, A. N., Kelley, J. T., Pilkey, O. H., and
Jackson, D. W. T.: Sandy beaches can survive sea-level rise, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 993–995, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00934-2, 2020.
Dailidienė, I., Davuliene, L., Tilickis, B., Stankevicius, A., and Myrberg, K.: Sea level variability at the Lithuanian coast of the Baltic Sea, Boreal Environ. Res., 11, 109–121, 2006.
Dailidienė, I., Davulienė, L., Kelpšaitė, L., and Razinkovas, A.: Analysis of the Climate Change in Lithuanian Coastal Areas of the Baltic Sea, J. Coast. Res., 282, 557–569, https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00077.1, 2012.
Dangendorf, S., Hay, C., Calafat, F. M., Marcos, M., Piecuch, C. G., Berk, K., and Jensen, J.: Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since
the 1960s, Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 705–710, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0531-8, 2019.
Dean, R. G. and Bender, C. J.: Static wave setup with emphasis on damping
effects by vegetation and bottom friction, Coast. Eng., 53, 149–156, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2005.10.005, 2006.
Defant, A.: Physical Oceanography, Pergamon Press, New York, NY, 729 pp.,
1961.
Deng, J., Zhang, W., Harff, J., Schneider, R., Dudzinska-Nowak, J., Terefenko, P., Giza, A., and Furmanczyk, K.: A numerical approach for
approximating the historical morphology of wave-dominated coasts – A case study of the Pomeranian Bight, southern Baltic Sea, Geomorphology, 204,
425–443, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.08.023, 2014.
Deng, J., Harff, J., Schimanke, S., and Meier, H. E. M.: A method for
assessing the coastline recession due to the sea level rise by assuming
stationary wind-wave climate, Oceanol. Hydrobiol. Stud., 44, 362–380, https://doi.org/10.1515/ohs-2015-0035, 2015.
Deng, J., Harff, J., Giza, A., Hartleib, J., Dudzinska-Nowak, J., Bobertz,
B., Furmanczyk, K., and Zölitz, R.: Reconstruction of coastline changes
by the comparisons of historical maps at the Pomeranian Bay, southern Baltic
Sea, in: Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East, 19, edited by: Harff, J., Furmańczyk, K. and von Storch, H., Springer International
Publishing, Cham, 271–287, 2017a.
Deng, J., Woodroffe, C. D., Rogers, K., and Harff, J.: Morphogenetic modelling of coastal and estuarine evolution, Earth-Sci. Rev., 171, 254–271, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.05.011, 2017b.
Deng, J., Wu, J., Zhang, W., Dudzinska-Nowak, J., and Harff, J.: Characterising the relaxation distance of nearshore submarine morphology: A
southern Baltic Sea case study, Geomorphology, 327, 365–376,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.11.018, 2019.
Dinardo, S., Fenoglio-Marc, L., Buchhaupt, C., Becker, M., Scharroo, R.,
Joana Fernandes, M., and Benveniste, J.: Coastal SAR and PLRM altimetry in
German Bight and West Baltic Sea, Adv. Space Res., 62, 1371–1404, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2017.12.018, 2018.
Dreier, N., Nehlsen, E., Fröhle, P., Rechid, D., Bouwer, L., and Pfeifer, S.: Future Changes in Wave Conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast Based on a Hybrid Approach Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Change Projections, Water, 13, 167, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13020167, 2021.
Dudzinska-Nowak, P.: Morphodynamic processes of the Swina Gate coasta zone
development (Southern Baltic Sea), in: Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea
from South to East, 19, edited by: Harff, J., Furmańczyk, K., and von Storch, H., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 219–255, 2017.
Eakins, B. W. and Sharman, G. F.: Volumes of the World's Oceans from ETOPO1, available at: https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/global/etopo1_ocean_volumes.html (last access: 18 April 2018), 2010.
Eelsalu, M., Soomere, T., Pindsoo, K., and Lagemaa, P.: Ensemble approach for projections of return periods of extreme water levels in Estonian waters, Cont. Shelf Res., 91, 201–210, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2014.09.012, 2014.
Eelsalu, M., Soomere, T., and Julge, K.: Quantification of changes in the
beach volume by the application of an inverse of the Bruun Rule and laser
scanning technology, Proc. Estonian Acad. Sci., 64, 240–248, https://doi.org/10.3176/proc.2015.3.06, 2015.
Ekman, M.: The world's longest sea level series and a winter oscillation index for Northern Europe, 1774–2000, Summer Institute for Historical Geophysics, Åland Islands, 31 pp., available at: https://www.historicalgeophysics.ax/sp/12.pdf (last access: 13 August 2021), 2003.
Ekman, M.: The changing level of the Baltic Sea during 300 years: A clue to
understanding the earth, Summer Institute for Historical Geophysics, Godby,
155 pp., 2009.
Ekman, M.: The Man behind “Degrees Celsius”: A Pioneer in Investigating the
Earth and its Changes, Åland Islands, 159 pp., available at: https://www.historicalgeophysics.ax/books/degrees_celsius.pdf (last access: 13 August 2021), 2016.
Ekman, M. and Mäkinen, J.: Mean sea surface topography in the Baltic Sea
and its transition area to the North Sea: A geodetic solution and comparisons with oceanographic models, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 11993–11999,
https://doi.org/10.1029/96JC00318, 1996.
Esselborn, S., Rudenko, S., and Schöne, T.: Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales, Ocean Sci., 14, 205–223, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-205-2018, 2018.
Fernandes, M. J., Lázaro, C., Ablain, M., and Pires, N.: Improved wet path delays for all ESA and reference altimetric missions, Remote Sens. Environ., 169, 50–74, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2015.07.023, 2015.
Feuchter, D., Jörg, C., Rosenhagen, G., Auchmann, R., Martius, O., and
Brönnimann, S.: The 1872 Baltic Sea storm surge, in: Weather extremes
during the past 140 years, edited by: Brönnimann, S. and Martius, O.,
Geographica Bernensia, G89, 91–98, 2013.
Furmanczyk, K. and Musielak, S.: Polish spits and barriers, in: Sand and
gravel spits, Coastal research library, 12, edited by: Randazzo, G., Jackson, D. W. T., and Cooper, J. A. G., Springer, Cham, 181–194, 2015.
Furmanczyk, K. K., Dudzinska-Nowak, J., Furmanczyk, K. A., Paplinska-Swerpel, B., and Brzezowska, N.: Dune erosion as a result of the significant storms at the western Polish coast (Dziwnow Spit example), J. Coast. Res., 64, 756–759, 2011.
Gerkensmeier, B. and Ratter, B. M. W.: Governing coastal risks as a social
process – Facilitating integrative risk management by enhanced multi-stakeholder collaboration, Environ. Sci. Policy, 80, 144–151, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.11.011, 2018.
Girjatowicz, J. P.: Ice thrusts and piles on the shores of the southern Baltic Sea coast (Poland) lagoons, Baltic Coast. Zone, 8, 5–22, 2004.
González-Riancho, P., Gerkensmeier, B., and Ratter, B. M. W.: Storm surge
resilience and the Sendai Framework: Risk perception, intention to prepare and enhanced collaboration along the German North Sea coast, Ocean Coast. Manage., 141, 118–131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2017.03.006, 2017.
Gräwe, U. and Burchard, H.: Storm surges in the Western Baltic Sea: The
present and a possible future, Clim. Dynam., 39, 165–183,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1185-z, 2012.
Gräwe, U., Klingbeil, K., Kelln, J., and Dangendorf, S.: Decomposing Mean Sea Level Rise in a Semi-Enclosed Basin, the Baltic Sea, J. Climate, 32, 3089–3108, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0174.1, 2019.
Grinsted, A.: Projected Change – Sea Level, in: Second Assessment of Climate
Change for the Baltic Sea Basin, Regional Climate Studies, edited by: BACC II Author Team, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 253–263, 2015.
Groh, A., Richter, A., and Dietrich, R.: Recent Baltic Sea Level Changes Induced by Past and Present Ice Masses, in: Coastline Changes of the Baltic
Sea from South to East, 19, edited by: Harff, J., Furmańczyk, K., and von Storch, H., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 55–68, 2017.
Groll, N., Grabemann, I., Hünicke, B., and Meese, M.: Baltic Sea wave
conditions under climate change scenarios, Boreal Environ. Res., 22, 1–12, 2017.
Harff, J., Lemke, W., Lampe, R., Lüth, F., Lübke, H., Meyer, M., Tauber, F., and Schmölcke, U.: The Baltic Sea coast – A model of interrelations among geosphere, climate, and anthroposphere, in: Coastline Changes: Interrelation of Climate and Geological Processes, edited by: Harff, J., Hay, W. W., and Tetzlaff, D. M., Geological Society of America Special Paper 426, Geological Society of America, Penrose Place, USA, 133–142, 2007.
Harff, J., Meyer, M., Zhang, W., Barthel, A., and Naumann, M.: Holocene
sediment dynamics at the southern Baltic Sea, Berichte der Römisch-Germanischen Kommission, 92, 41–76, 2011.
Harff, J., Deng, J., Dudzińska-Nowak, J., Fröhle, P., Groh, A., Hünicke, B., Soomere, T., and Zhang, W.: What Determines the Change of Coastlines in the Baltic Sea?, in: Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East, 19, edited by: Harff, J., Furmańczyk, K., and von Storch, H., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 15–36, 2017.
Hartleib, J. and Bobertz, B.: New Demands on Old Maps – An Approach for
Estimating Aspects of Accuracy of Old Maps as Basis for Landscape Development Research, in: Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East, 19, edited by: Harff, J., Furmańczyk, K., and von Storch, H., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 257–270, 2017.
Hieronymus, M. and Kalén, O.: Sea-level rise projections for Sweden based on the new IPCC special report: The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate, Ambio, 49, 1587–1600, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01313-8, 2020.
Hinkel, J., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S.J., Wang, Z. B., Hamilton, J. M., Boot, G., Vafeidis, A. T., McFadden, L., Ganopolski, A., and Klein, R. J. T.:
A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA, Global Planet. Change, 111, 150–158,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.002, 2013.
Holfort, J., Perlet, I., and Stanislawczyk, I.: Rapid changes in sea level,
in: Multiple drivers for Earth system changes in the Baltic Sea region, International Baltic Earth Secretariat Publications 9, edited by: Reckermann, M. and Köppen, S., First Baltic Earth Conference, 13–17 June 2016, Nida, Curonian Spit, Lithuania, p. 119, avaliable at: https://www.baltic-earth.eu/imperia/md/assets/baltic_earth/baltic_earth/baltic_earth/ibesp_no9_jun2016_nidaconf.pdf (last access: 13 August 2021), 2016.
Holgate, S. J., Matthews, A., Woodworth, P. L., Rickards, L. J., Tamisiea, M. E., Bradshaw, E., Foden, P. R., Gordon, K. M., Jevrejeva, S., and Pugh, J.: New Data Systems and Products at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, J. Coast. Res., 29, 493–504, https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00175.1, 2013.
Hünicke, B.: Contribution of regional climate drivers to future winter
sea-level changes in the Baltic Sea estimated by statistical methods and
simulations of climate models, Int. J. Earth Sci., 99, 1721–1730, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-009-0470-0, 2010.
Hünicke, B. and Zorita, E.: Influence of temperature and precipitation
on decadal Baltic Sea level variations in the 20th century, Tellus A, 58, 141–153, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00157.x, 2006.
Hünicke, B. and Zorita, E.: Statistical Analysis of the Acceleration of
Baltic Mean Sea-Level Rise, 1900–2012, Front. Mar. Sci., 3, 125,
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00125, 2016.
Hünicke, B., Zorita, E., Soomere, T., Madsen, K. S., Johansson, M., and
Suursaar, Ü.: Recent Change – Sea Level and Wind Waves, in: Second
Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin, Regional Climate Studies, edited by: BACC II Author Team, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 155–185, 2015.
Hünicke, B., Zorita, E., and von Storch, H.: The Challenge of Baltic Sea
Level Change, in: Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East,
19, edited by: Harff, J., Furmańczyk, K., and von Storch, H., Springer
International Publishing, Cham, 37–54, 2017.
Idžanović, M., Ophaug, V., and Andersen, O. B.: Coastal sea level from CryoSat-2 SARIn altimetry in Norway, Adv. Space Res., 62, 1344–1357, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2017.07.043, 2018.
Jakobsson, M., Stranne, C., O'Regan, M., Greenwood, S. L., Gustafsson, B.,
Humborg, C., and Weidner, E.: Bathymetric properties of the Baltic Sea, Ocean Sci., 15, 905–924, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-905-2019, 2019.
Jamieson, T. F.: On the History of the Last Geological Changes in Scotland,
Quart. J. Geol. Soc., 21, 161–204, https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.JGS.1865.021.01-02.24, 1865.
Jevrejeva, S., Grinsted, A., Moore, J. C., and Holgate, S.: Nonlinear trends
and multiyear cycles in sea level records, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 111, C09012, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003229, 2006.
Jevrejeva, S., Moore, J. C., Grinsted, A., and Woodworth, P. L.: Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08715, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033611, 2008.
Johansson, J.: Total and Regional Runoff to the Baltic Sea, available at:
https://helcom.fi/media/documents/BSEFS_Total-and-regional-runoff-to-the-Baltic-Sea-in-2015.pdf (last access: 9 June 2021), 2016.
Johansson, M., Boman, H., Kahma, K. K., and Launiainen, J.: Trends in sea
level variability in the Baltic Sea, Boreal Environ. Res., 6, 159–179, 2001.
Johansson, M. M.: Sea level changes on the finnish coast and their relationship to atmospheric factors, getr. Zählung, Contributions/Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki, 54 pp., 2014.
Johansson, M. M. and Kahma, K. K.: On the statistical relationship between the geostrophic wind and sea level variations in the Baltic Sea, Boreal Environ. Res., 21, 25–43, 2016.
Jönsson, B., Döös, K., Nycander, J., and Lundberg, P.: Standing
waves in the Gulf of Finland and their relationship to the basin-wide Baltic
seiches, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C03004,, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003862, 2008.
Kahma, K.: Atlantin ilmanpaine vaikuttaa Itämereen [NAO is reflected in the Baltic sea level], Annual Report 1999, Finnish Institute of Marine Research, Helsinki, 1999.
Karabil, S.: Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on the Baltic Sea Level
Rise under the RCP8.5 Scenario over the 21st Century, Climate, 5, 71,
https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030071, 2017.
Karabil, S., Zorita, E., and Hünicke, B.: Contribution of atmospheric
circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 69–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-69-2018,
2018.
Keilhack, K.: Die Verlandung der Swinepforte, Jahrbuch der
Königliche-Preussischen Geologischen Landesanstalt, XXXII, Königliche-Preussische Geologische Landesanstalt, Berlin, 209–244, 1912.
Kirtman, B., Power, S. B., Adedoyin, J. A., Boer, G. J., Bojariu, R., Camilloni,I., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Fiore, A. M., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Prather, M., Sarr, A., Schär, C., Sutton, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi, G., and Wang, H. J.: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Kleinherenbrink, M., Riva, R., and Scharroo, R.: A revised acceleration rate
from the altimetry-derived global mean sea level record, Scient. Rep., 9, 10908, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47340-z, 2019.
Kliewe, H.: Zeit- und Klimamarken in Sedimenten der südlichen Ostsee und
ihrer Vorpommerschen Boddenküste, J. Coast. Res., 17, 181–186, 1995.
Kniebusch, M., Meier, H. M., and Radtke, H.: Changing Salinity Gradients in
the Baltic Sea As a Consequence of Altered Freshwater Budgets, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 46, 9739–9747, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083902, 2019.
Kolp, O.: Das Wachstum der Landspitze Darsser Ort, Petermanns Geogr. Mitt.,
122, 3–111, 1978.
Kovaleva, O., Eelsalu, M., and Soomere, T.: Hot-spots of large wave energy
resources in relatively sheltered sections of the Baltic Sea coast, Renew. Sustain. Energ. Rev., 74, 424–437, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.02.033, 2017.
Kowalewska-Kalkowska, H. and Marks, R.: 200 years of sea level measurements
at the Swinoujscie tide gauge, in: Scientific symposium 200 years of oldest
continuous record of tide-gauge in Swinoujscie, 18 November 2011, Swinoujscie, Poland, 2011.
Kudryavtseva, N. and Soomere, T.: Satellite altimetry reveals spatial patterns of variations in the Baltic Sea wave climate, Earth Syst. Dynam.,
8, 697–706, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-697-2017, 2017.
Kudryavtseva, N., Pindsoo, K., and Soomere, T.: Non-stationary Modeling of
Trends in Extreme Water Level Changes Along the Baltic Sea Coast, J. Coast. Res., 85, 586–590, https://doi.org/10.2112/SI85-118.1, 2018.
Kudryavtseva, N., Soomere, T., and Männikus, R.: Non-stationary analysis
of water level extremes in Latvian waters, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018,
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1279–1296,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1279-2021, 2021.
Kulikov, E. A., Medvedev, I. P., and Koltermann, K. P.: Baltic sea level
low-frequency variability, Tellus A, 67, 25642, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.25642, 2015.
Łabuz, T.: Environmental Impacts – Coastal Erosion and Coastline Changes. in: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin, Regional Climate Studies, edited by: The BACC II Author Team, Springer, Cham, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_20, 2015.
Łabuz, T. A., Grunewald, R., Bobykina, V., Chubarenko, B.,
Česnulevičius, A., Bautrėnas, A., Morkūnaitė, R., and
Tõnisson, H.: Coastal Dunes of the Baltic Sea Shores: A Review, Quaest. Geogr., 37, 47–71, https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2018-0005, 2018.
Lampe, R., Meyer, H., Ziekur, R., Janke, W., and Endtmann, E.: Holocene
evolution of the irregularly sinking southern Baltic Sea coast and the interactions of sea-level rise, Berichte der Römisch-Germanischen
Kommission, 88, 9–14, 2007.
Le Cozannet, G., Oliveros, C., Castelle, B., Garcin, M., Idier, D., Pedreros, R., and Rohmer, J.: Uncertainties in Sandy Shorelines Evolution under the Bruun Rule Assumption, Front. Mar. Sci., 3, 434, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00049, 2016.
Le Cozannet, G., Bulteau, T., Castelle, B., Ranasinghe, R., Wöppelmann,
G., Rohmer, J., Bernon, N., Idier, D., Louisor, J., and Salas-Y-Mélia,
D.: Quantifying uncertainties of sandy shoreline change projections as sea
level rises, Scient. Rep., 9, 42, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-37017-4, 2019.
Legeais, J.-F., Ablain, M., Zawadzki, L., Zuo, H., Johannessen, J. A.,
Scharffenberg, M. G., Fenoglio-Marc, L., Fernandes, M. J., Andersen, O. B.,
Rudenko, S., Cipollini, P., Quartly, G. D., Passaro, M., Cazenave, A., and
Benveniste, J.: An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from
the ESA Climate Change Initiative, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 281–301,
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-281-2018, 2018.
Lehmann, A., Krauss, W., and Hinrichsen, H.-H.: Effects of remote and local
atmospheric forcing on circulation and upwelling in the Baltic Sea, Tellus A, 54, 299–316, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.2002.00289.x, 2002.
Leppäranta, M.: Land–ice interaction in the Baltic Sea, Estonian J.
Earth Sci., 62, 2–14, https://doi.org/10.3176/earth.2013.01, 2013.
Leppäranta, M. and Myrberg, K.: Physical oceanography of the Baltic Sea,
Springer-Praxis books in geophysical sciences, Springer/Praxis Pub., Berlin,
Chichester, UK, 2009.
Lidberg, M., Johansson, J. M., Scherneck, H.-G., and Milne, G. A.: Recent
results based on continuous GPS observations of the GIA process in Fennoscandia from BIFROST, J. Geodynam., 50, 8–18, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2009.11.010, 2010.
Luijendijk, A., Hagenaars, G., Ranasinghe, R., Baart, F., Donchyts, G., and
Aarninkhof, S.: The State of the World's Beaches, Scient. Rep., 8, 6641, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24630-6, 2018.
Madsen, K. S., Høyer, J. L., Fu, W., and Donlon, C.: Blending of satellite and tide gauge sea level observations and its assimilation in a storm surge model of the North Sea and Baltic Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 120, 6405–6418, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011070, 2015.
Madsen, K. S., She, J., Soomere, T., Pindsoo, K., Männikus, R., and
Kudryavtseva, N.: Growth and innovation in ocean economy – gaps and priorities in Baltic Sea basin observation and data, EMODNET Baltic Sea
Check Point for Challenge Area: Coastal Protection, available at: http://eurogoos.eu/download/project_deliverables/EMODnet-2016-Baltic-Checkpoint-First-Data-Adequacy
-Report-2016.pdf (last access: 13 August 2021), 2018.
Madsen, K. S., Høyer, J. L., Suursaar, Ü., She, J., and Knudsen, P.:
Sea Level Trends and Variability of the Baltic Sea From 2D Statistical
Reconstruction and Altimetry, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 67,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00243, 2019a.
Madsen, K. S., Murawski, J., Blokhina, M., and Su, J.: Sea Level Change:
Mapping Danish Municipality Needs for Climate Information, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 113, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00081, 2019b.
Männikus, R., Soomere, T., and Kudryavtseva, N.: Identification of
mechanisms that drive water level extremes from in situ measurements in the
Gulf of Riga during 1961–2017, Cont. Shelf Res., 182, 22–36,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2019.05.014, 2019.
Männikus, R., Soomere, T., and Viška, M.: Variations in the mean,
seasonal and extreme water level on the Latvian coast, the eastern Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 245, 106827,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2020.106827, 2020.
Marcos, M. and Woodworth, P. L.: Spatiotemporal changes in extreme sea levels along the coasts of the North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 7031–7048, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013065, 2017.
Marcos, M. and Woodworth, P. L.: Changes in extreme sea levels, in: Sea level rise, edited by: Church, J., CLIVAR Exchanges, UCAR – University Corporation For Atmospheric Research, CLIVAR Exchanges, 74, 20–24, 2018.
Masselink, G. and Pattiaratchi, C. B.: Seasonal changes in beach morphology
along the sheltered coastline of Perth, Western Australia, Mar. Geol., 172, 243–263, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-3227(00)00128-6, 2001.
Matthäus, W. and Franck, H.: Characteristics of major Baltic inflows – a
statistical analysis, Cont. Shelf Res., 12, 1375–1400, https://doi.org/10.1016/0278-4343(92)90060-W, 1992.
Mattsson, J.: Some comments on the barotropic flow through the Danish Straits and the division of the flow between the Belt Sea and the Oresund, Tellus A, 48, 456–464, https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-2-00007.x, 1996.
Medvedev, I. P., Rabinovich, A. B., and Kulikov, E. A.: Tidal oscillations in the Baltic Sea, Oceanology, 53, 526–538, https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001437013050123, 2013.
Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Murphy, J., Stouffer, R. J., Boer, G., Danabasoglu, G., Dixon, K., Giorgetta, M. A., Greene, A. M., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G., Karoly, D., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Navarra,
A., Pulwarty, R., Smith, D., Stammer, D., and Stockdale, T.: Decadal Prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1467–1485, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1, 2009.
Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Branstator, G., Cassou, C., Corti, S., Danabasoglu, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E., Karspeck, A., Kimoto, M., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Navarra, A., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Rosati, T., Schneider, E., Smith, D., Sutton,
R., Teng, H., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi, G., and Yeager, S.: Decadal
Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 243–267, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1, 2014.
Meier, H. E. M.: Baltic Sea climate in the late twenty-first century: A dynamical downscaling approach using two global models and two emission
scenarios, Clim. Dynam., 27, 39–68, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0124-x, 2006.
Melet, A., Meyssignac, B., Almar, R., and Le Cozannet, G.: Under-estimated
wave contribution to coastal sea-level rise, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 234–239, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0088-y, 2018.
Milanković, M.: Théorie mathématique des phénomènes thermiques produits par la radiation solaire, Académie Yougoslave des Sciences et des Arts de Zagreb/Gauthier-Villars et Cie, Paris, 338 pp., 1920.
Mitrovica, J. X., Tamisiea, M. E., Davis, J. L., and Milne, G. A.: Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea-level
change, Nature, 409, 1026–1029, https://doi.org/10.1038/35059054, 2001.
Mohrholz, V.: Major Baltic Inflow Statistics – Revised, Front. Mar. Sci.,
5, 280, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00384, 2018.
Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Sienz, F., and Smith, D.: Decadal climate
predictions for the period 1901–2010 with a coupled climate model, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 41, 2100–2107, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059259, 2014.
Musielak, S., Furmanczyk, K., and Bugajny, N.: Factors and processes forming
the Polish southern Baltic Sea coast on various temporal and spatial scales,
in: Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East, 19, edited by: Harff, J., Furmańczyk, K., and von Storch, H., Springer International
Publishing, Cham, 69–86, 2017.
Nerem, R. S., Beckley, B. D., Fasullo, J. T., Hamlington, B. D., Masters, D., and Mitchum, G. T.: Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 2022–2025,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1717312115, 2018.
Nikolkina, I., Soomere, T., and Raamet, A.: Multidecadal ensemble hindcast
of wave fields in the Baltic Sea, in: 2014 IEEE/OES Baltic International
Symposium (BALTIC), Tallinn, Estonia, 1–9, 2014.
Nilsson, E., Rutgersson, A., Dingwell, A., Björkqvist, J.-V., Pettersson, H., Axell, L., Nyberg, J., and Strömstedt, E.: Characterization of Wave Energy Potential for the Baltic Sea with Focus on the Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone, Energies, 12, 793, https://doi.org/10.3390/en12050793, 2019.
Omstedt, A.: Guide to Process Based Modeling of Lakes and Coastal Seas, Springer International Publishing, Cham, 2015.
Omstedt, A.: The Development of Climate Science of the Baltic Sea Region,
in: Oxford Research Encycolpedia, Climate Science, 1, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2017.
Omstedt, A. and Nyberg, L.: Sea level variations during ice-covered periods in the Baltic Sea, Geophysica, 27, 41–61, 1991.
Omstedt, A., Pettersen, C., Rodhe, J., and Winsor, P.: Baltic Sea climate:
200 yr of data on air temperature, sea level variation, ice cover, and
atmospheric circulation, Clim. Res., 25, 205–216, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr025205,
2004.
Oppenheimer, M., Glavovic, B. C., Hinkel, J., van de Wal, R., Magnan, A. K.,
Abd-Elgawad, A., Cai, R., Cifuentes-Jara, M., DeConto, R. M., Ghosh, T., Hay, J., Isla, F., Marzeion, B., Meyssignac, B., and Sebesvari, Z.: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities, in: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Nicolai, M., Okem, A.,
Petzold, J., Rama, B., and Weyer, N. M., IPCC, 2019.
Orviku, K., Jaagus, J., Kont, A., Ratas, U., and Rivis, R.: Increasing Activity of Coastal Processes Associated with Climate Change in Estonia, J. Coast. Res., 19, 364–375, 2003.
Orviku, K., Jaagus, J., and Tõnisson, H.: Sea ice shaping the shores, J. Coast. Res., SI64, 681–685, 2011.
Otsmann, M., Suursaar, Ü., and Kullas, T.: The oscillatory nature of the
flows in the system of straits and small semienclosed basins of the Baltic Sea, Cont. Shelf Res., 21, 1577–1603, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0278-4343(01)00002-4, 2001.
Passaro, M., Müller, F. L., Oelsmann, J., Rautiainen, L., Dettmering, D., Hart-Davis, M. G., Abulaitijiang, A., Andersen, O. B., Høyer, J. L., Madsen, K. S., Ringgaard, I. M., Särkkä, J., Scarrott, R., Schwatke,
C., Seitz, F., Tuomi, L., Restano, M., and Benveniste, J.: Absolute Baltic Sea Level Trends in the Satellite Altimetry Era: A Revisit, Front. Mar. Sci., 8, 7, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.647607, 2021.
Pellikka, H., Rauhala, J., Kahma, K. K., Stipa, T., Boman, H., and Kangas, A.: Recent observations of meteotsunamis on the Finnish coast, Nat. Hazards,
74, 197–215, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1150-3, 2014.
Pellikka, H., Leijala, U., Johansson, M. M., Leinonen, K., and Kahma, K. K.:
Future probabilities of coastal floods in Finland, Cont. Shelf Res., 157, 32–42, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2018.02.006, 2018.
Pellikka, H., Laurila, T. K., Boman, H., Karjalainen, A., Björkqvist, J.-V., and Kahma, K. K.: Meteotsunami occurrence in the Gulf of Finland over the past century, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, 2020.
Pelling, M. and Blackburn, S. (Eds.): Megacities and the coast: Risk,
resilience and transformation, Routledge, London, 245 pp., 2013.
Peltier, W. R.: Global Glacial Isostasy And The Surface Of The Ice-Age Earth: The ICE-5G (VM2) Model and GRACE, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 32, 111–149, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.32.082503.144359, 2004.
Pindsoo, K. and Soomere, T.: Contribution of wave set-up into the total water level in the Tallinn area, Proc. Estonian Acad. Sci., 64, 338–348, https://doi.org/10.3176/proc.2015.3S.03, 2015.
Pindsoo, K. and Soomere, T.: Basin-wide variations in trends in water level
maxima in the Baltic Sea, Cont. Shelf Res., 193, 104029, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2019.104029, 2020.
Plag, H.-P. and Jüttner, H.-U.: Inversion of the global tide gauge data
for present-day ice load changes, Mem. Natl Inst. Polar Res., 54, 301–317,
2001.
Pranzini, E. and Williams, A. (Eds.): Coastal Erosion and Protection in Europe, Taylor and Francis, Hoboken, 483 pp., 2013.
Pugh, D. and Woodworth, P.: Sea-Level Science, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, 2014.
Quartly, G. D., Legeais, J.-F., Ablain, M., Zawadzki, L., Fernandes, M. J.,
Rudenko, S., Carrère, L., García, P. N., Cipollini, P., Andersen, O. B., Poisson, J.-C., Mbajon Njiche, S., Cazenave, A., and Benveniste, J.: A new phase in the production of quality-controlled sea level data, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 557–572, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-557-2017, 2017.
Räisänen, J.: Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region and
Environmental Impacts, 1, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2017.
Reusch, T. B. H., Dierking, J., Andersson, H. C., Bonsdorff, E., Carstensen,
J., Casini, M., Czajkowski, M., Hasler, B., Hinsby, K., Hyytiäinen, K.,
Johannesson, K., Jomaa, S., Jormalainen, V., Kuosa, H., Kurland, S., Laikre,
L., MacKenzie, B. R., Margonski, P., Melzner, F., Oesterwind, D., Ojaveer, H., Refsgaard, J. C., Sandström, A., Schwarz, G., Tonderski, K., Winder,
M., and Zandersen, M.: The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean, Sci. Adv., 4, eaar8195, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aar8195, 2018.
Ribeiro, A., Barbosa, S. M., Scotto, M. G., and Donner, R. V.: Changes in
extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea, Tellus A, 66, 20921, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v66.20921, 2014.
Richter, A., Groh, A., and Dietrich, R.: Geodetic observation of sea-level
change and crustal deformation in the Baltic Sea region, Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. A/B/C, 53–54, 43–53, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.04.011, 2012.
Rosentau, I., Muru, M., Gauk, M., Oja, T., Liibusk, A., Kall, T., Karro, E., Roose, A., Sepp, M., Tammepuu, A., Tross, J., and Uppin, M.: Sea-Level Change and Flood Risks at Estonian Coastal Zone, in: Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East, 19, edited by: Harff, J., Furmańczyk, K., and von Storch, H., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 363–388, 2017.
Rutgersson, A., Jaagus, J., Schenk, F., and Stendel, M.: Observed changes and variability of atmospheric parameters in the Baltic Sea region during the last 200 years, Clim. Res., 61, 177–190, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01244, 2014.
Ryabchuk, D., Kolesov, A., Chubarenko, B., Spiridonov, M., Kurennoy, D., and
Soomere, T.: Coastal erosion processes in the eastern Gulf of Finland and
their links with geological and hydrometeorological factors, Boreal Environ. Res., 16, 117–137, 2011a.
Ryabchuk, D., Leont'yev, I., Sergeev, A., Nesterova, E., Sukhacheva, L., and
Zhamoida, V.: The morphology of sand spits and the genesis of longshore sand
waves on the coast of the eastern Gulf of Finland, Baltica, 24, 13–24, 2011b.
Ryabchuk, D., Sergeev, A., Burnashev, E., Khorikov, V., Neevin, I., Kovaleva, O., Budanov, L., Zhamoida, V., and Danchenkov, A.: Coastal processes in the Russian Baltic (eastern Gulf of Finland and Kaliningrad area), Q. J. Eng. Geol. Hydrogeol., 28, qjegh2020-036, https://doi.org/10.1144/qjegh2020-036, 2020.
Samuelsson, M. and Stigebrandt, A.: Main characteristics of the long-term sea level variability in the Baltic sea, Tellus A, 48, 672–683,
https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-4-00006.x, 1996.
Särkkä, J., Kahma, K. K., Kämäräinen, M., Johansson, M. M., and Saku, S.: Simulated extreme sea levels at Helsinki, Boreal Environ. Res., 22, 299–355, 2017.
Sayin, E. and Krauss, W.: A numerical study of the water exchange through the Danish Straits, Tellus A, 48, 324–341, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v48i2.12063, 1996.
Schaper, J., Ulm, M., Arns, A., Jensen, J., Ratter, B. M. W., and Weisse,
R.: Transdisziplinäres Risikomanagement im Umgang mit extremen Nordsee-Sturmfluten: Vom Modell zur Wissenschafts-Praxis-Kooperation, Küste, 87, 75–114, https://doi.org/10.18171/1.087112, 2019.
Schmager, G., Fröhle, P., Schrader, D., Weisse, R., and Müller-Navarra, S.: Sea State, Tides, Wiley-Blackwell, 143 pp.,
https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470283134.ch7, 2008.
Schöne, T., Schön, N., and Thaller, D.: IGS Tide Gauge Benchmark
Monitoring Pilot Project (TIGA): Scientific benefits, J. Geod., 83, 249–261,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-008-0269-y, 2009.
Schöne, T., Esselborn, S., Rudenko, S., and Raimondo, J.-C.: Radar altimetry derived sea level anomalies – The benefit of new orbits and
harmonization, in: System earth via geodetic-geophysical space techniques,
edited by: Flechtner, F. M., Gruber, T., Güntner, A., Mandea, M., Rothacher, M., Schöne, T., and Wickert, J., Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg,
317–324, 2010.
Schöne, T., Illigner, J., Manurung, P., Subarya, C., Khafid, Zech, C.,
and Galas, R.: GPS-controlled tide gauges in Indonesia – a German contribution to Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System, Nat. Hazards Earth
Syst. Sci., 11, 731–740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-731-2011, 2011.
Schwabe, J., Ågren, J., Liebsch, G., Westfeld, P., Hammarklint, T., Monoen, J., and Andersen, O. B.: The Baltic Sea Chart Datum 2000 (BSCD2000) Implementation of a common reference level in the Baltic Sea, International Hydrographic Review, International Hydrographic Organization, Monaco, 63–83, 2020.
Sergeev, A., Ryabchuk, D., Zhamoida, V., Leont'yev, I., Kolesov, A., Kovaleva, O., and Orviku, K.: Coastal dynamics of the eastern Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea: Toward a quantitative assessment, Baltica, 31, 49–62, https://doi.org/10.5200/baltica.2018.31.05, 2018.
Smith, D. M., Eade, R., Scaife, A. A., Caron, L.-P., Danabasoglu, G., DelSole, T. M., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dunstone, N. J., Hermanson, L., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Merryfield, W. J., Mochizuki, T.,
Müller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Yeager, S., and Yang, X.: Robust skill of
decadal climate predictions, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 2, 1366,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y, 2019.
Soomere, T. and Eelsalu, M.: On the wave energy potential along the eastern
Baltic Sea coast, Renew. Energy, 71, 221–233, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2014.05.025, 2014.
Soomere, T. and Healy, T.: On the dynamics of “almost equilibrium” beaches
in semi-sheltered bays along the southern coast of the Gulf of Finland, in:
The Baltic Sea Basin, Central and Eastern European Development Studies (CEEDES), edited by: Harff, J., Björck, S., and Hoth, P., Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 255–279, 2011.
Soomere, T. and Viška, M.: Simulated wave-driven sediment transport along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, J. Mar. Syst., 129, 96–105, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.02.001, 2014.
Soomere, T., Kask, A., Kask, J., and Nerman, R.: Transport and distribution of bottom sediments at Pirita Beach, Estonian J. Earth Sci., 56, 233–254, https://doi.org/10.3176/earth.2007.04, 2007.
Soomere, T., Behrens, A., Tuomi, L., and Nielsen, J. W.: Wave conditions in
the Baltic Proper and in the Gulf of Finland during windstorm Gudrun, Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 37–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-37-2008, 2008.
Soomere, T., Parnell, K. E., and Didenkulova, I.: Implications of fast-ferry
wakes for semi-sheltered beaches: a case study at Aegna Island, Baltic Sea, J. Coast. Res., 56, 128–132, 2009.
Soomere, T., Weisse, R., and Behrens, A.: Wave climate in the Arkona Basin,
the Baltic Sea, Ocean Sci., 8, 287–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-8-287-2012, 2012.
Soomere, T., Pindsoo, K., Bishop, S. R., Käärd, A., and Valdmann, A.: Mapping wave set-up near a complex geometric urban coastline, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3049–3061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3049-2013, 2013.
Soomere, T., Eelsalu, M., Kurkin, A., and Rybin, A.: Separation of the Baltic Sea water level into daily and multi-weekly components, Cont. Shelf Res., 103, 23–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2015.04.018, 2015.
Soomere, T. and Pindsoo, K.: Spatial variability in the trends in extreme
storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea,
Cont. Shelf Res., 115, 53–64, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2015.12.016, 2016.
Soomere, T., Männikus, R., Pindsoo, K., Kudryavtseva, N., and Eelsalu, M.: Modification of closure depths by synchronisation of severe seas and
high water levels, Geo-Mar. Lett., 37, 35–46, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00367-016-0471-5, 2017a.
Soomere, T., Viska, M., and Pindsoo, K.: Retrieving the signal of climate change from numerically simulated sediment transport along the eastern Baltic Sea coast, in: Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East, 19, edited by: Harff, J., Furmańczyk, K., and von Storch, H., Springer
International Publishing, Cham, 327–362, 2017b.
Soomere, T., Eelsalu, M., and Pindsoo, K.: Variations in parameters of extreme value distributions of water level along the eastern Baltic Sea coast, Estuarine, Coast. Shelf Sci., 215, 59–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2018.10.010, 2018.
Soomere, T., Pindsoo, K., Kudryavtseva, N., and Eelsalu, M.: Variability of
distributions of wave set-up heights along a shoreline with complicated
geometry, Ocean Sci., 16, 1047–1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1047-2020, 2020.
Spada, G., Olivieri, M., and Galassi, G.: Anomalous secular sea-level acceleration in the Baltic Sea caused by isostatic adjustment, Ann. Geophys., 57, S0432, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6548, 2014.
Stammer, D., Wal, R. S. W., Nicholls, R. J., Church, J. A., Le Cozannet, G.,
Lowe, J. A., Horton, B. P., White, K., Behar, D., and Hinkel, J.: Framework
for High-End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications, Earth's Future, 7, 923–938, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001163, 2019.
Stigebrandt, A.: A Model for the Exchange of Water and Salt Between the
Baltic and the Skagerrak, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 13, 411–427,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1983)013<0411:AMFTEO>2.0.CO;2, 1983.
Stramska, M. and Chudziak, N.: Recent multiyear trends in the Baltic Sea level, Oceanologia, 55, 319–337, https://doi.org/10.5697/oc.55-2.319, 2013.
Suursaar, Ü. and Sooäär, J.: Decadal variations in mean and extreme sea level values along the Estonian coast of the Baltic Sea, Tellus A, 59, 249–260, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00220.x, 2016.
Suursaar, Ü., Kullas, T., Otsmann, M., and Kõuts, T.: A model for
storm surge forecasts in the Eastern Baltic Sea, in: Risk analysis III:
[papers presented at the Third International Conference on Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation (RISK/2002) held in
Sintra, Portugal in June 2002], WIT transactions on modelling and simulation, 31, edited by: Brebbia, C. A., WIT Press, Southampton, 509–519, 2002.
Suursaar, Ü., Jaagus, J., and Kullas, T.: Past and future changes in sea
level near the Estonian coast in relation to changes in wind climate, Boreal
Environ. Res., 11, 123–142, 2006a.
Suursaar, Ü., Kullas, T., Otsmann, M., Saaremäe, I., Kuik, J., and Merilain, M.: Cyclone Gudrun in January 2005 and modelling its hydrodynamic
consequences in Estonian coastal waters, Boreal Environ. Res., 11, 143–159, 2006b.
Suursaar, Ü., Kullas, T., and Aps, R.: Currents and waves in the northern Gulf of Riga: Measurement and long-term hindcast, Oceanologia, 54, 421–447, https://doi.org/10.5697/oc.54-3.421, 2012.
Svansson, A.: Exchange of water and salt in the Baltic and adjacent seas,
Oceanol. Acta, 3, 431–440, 1980.
Thejll, P., Boberg, F., Schmith, T., Christiansen, B., Christensen, O. B.,
Madsen, M. S., Su, J., Andree, E., Olsen, S., Langen, P. L., and Madsen, K.
S.: Methods used in the Danish Climate Atlas, DMI Rep., DMI, Copenhagen., 19–17, 2020.
Tiepold, L. and Schuhmacher, W.: Historische bis rezente
Küstenveränderungen im Raum Fischland-Darß-Zingst-Hiddensee
anhand von Kartne, Luft- und Satellitenbildern, Küste, 61, 29–54, 1999.
Tõnisson, H., Orviku, K., Lapinskis, J., Gulbinskas, S., and Zaromskis,
R.: The Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, in: Coastal Erosion
and Protection in Europe, edited by: Pranzini, E. and Williams, A., Taylor and Francis, Hoboken, 47–81, 2013a.
Tõnisson, H., Suursaar, Ü., Rivis, R., Kont, A., and Orviku, K.:
Observation and analysis of coastal changes in the West Estonian Archipelago
caused by storm Ulli (Emil) in January 2012, J. Coast. Res., 65, 832–837, https://doi.org/10.2112/SI65-141.1, 2013b.
Tuomi, L., Kahma, K. K., and Pettersson, H.: Wave hindcast statistics in the
seasonally ice-covered Baltic Sea, Boreal Environ. Res., 16, 451–472, 2011.
Tuomi, L., Kahma, K. K., and Fortelius, C.: Modelling fetch-limited wave
growth from an irregular shoreline, J. Mar. Syst., 105-108, 96–105, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.06.004, 2012.
Tuomi, L., Pettersson, H., Fortelius, C., Tikka, K., Björkqvist, J.-V.,
and Kahma, K. K.: Wave modelling in archipelagos, Coast. Eng., 83, 205–220, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.011, 2014.
Ulsts, V.: Latvian Coastal Zone of the Baltic Sea, State Geological Survey of Latvia, Riga, 96 pp., 1998.
UNEP: Sand and sustainability: Finding new solutions for environmental governance of global sand resources synthesis for policy makers, vol. 35, United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, 2019.
Veng, T. and Andersen, O. B.: Consolidating sea level acceleration estimates
from satellite altimetry, Adv. Space Res., 68, 496–503, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2020.01.016, 2020.
Vestøl, O., Ågren, J., Steffen, H., Kierulf, H., and Tarasov, L.:
NKG2016LU: A new land uplift model for Fennoscandia and the Baltic Region, J.
Geod., 93, 1759–1779, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-019-01280-8, 2019.
Viška, M. and Soomere, T.: Hindcast of sediment flow along the Curonian
Spit under different wave climates, in: 2012 IEEE/OES Baltic International Symposium (BALTIC), 8–10 May 2012, Klaipeda, 1–7, 2012.
Viška, M. and Soomere, T.: Simulated and observed reversals of wave-driven alongshore sediment transport at the eastern Baltic Sea coast,
Baltica, 26, 145–156, https://doi.org/10.5200/baltica.2013.26.15, 2013.
Vitousek, S., Barnard, P. L., and Limber, P.: Can beaches survive climate
change?, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 122, 1060–1067, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004308, 2017.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Voukouvalas, E., Annunziato, A., Giardino, A., and Feyen,
L.: Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe, Clim. Dynam., 47,
3171–3190, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3019-5, 2016.
Vousdoukas, M. I., Ranasinghe, R., Mentaschi, L., Plomaritis, T. A., Athanasiou, P., Luijendijk, A., and Feyen, L.: Sandy coastlines under threat
of erosion, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 260–263, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0697-0, 2020.
Weidemann, H.: Klimatologie der Ostseewasserstände: Eine Rekonstruktion
von 1948 bis 2011, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, 2014.
Weisse, R. and Hünicke, B.: Baltic Sea Level: Past, Present, and Future,
in: Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2019.
Weisse, R. and Weidemann, H.: Baltic Sea extreme sea levels 1948–2011:
Contributions from atmospheric forcing, Procedia IUTAM, 25, 65–69,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.piutam.2017.09.010, 2017.
Weisse, R., von Storch, H., Callies, U., Chrastansky, A., Feser, F., Grabemann, I., Günther, H., Winterfeldt, J., Woth, K., Pluess, A., Stoye, T., and Tellkamp, J.: Regional Meteorological-Marine Reanalyses and Climate Change Projections: Results for Northern Europe and Potential for Coastal and Offshore Applications, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 849–860,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2713.1, 2009.
Weisse, R., Bisling, P., Gaslikova, L., Geyer, B., Groll, N., Hortamani, M.,
Matthias, V., Maneke, M., Meinke, I., Meyer, E. M. I., Schwichtenberg, F.,
Stempinski, F., Wiese, F., and Wöckner-Kluwe, K.: Climate services for
marine applications in Europe, Earth Perspect., 2, 3887,
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40322-015-0029-0, 2015.
Weisse, R., Grabemann, I., Gaslikova, L., Meyer, E., Tinz, B., Fery, N., Möller, T., Rudolph, E., Brodhagen, T., Arns, A., Jensen, J., Ulm, M., Ratter, B., and Schaper, J.: Extreme Nordseesturmfluten und mögliche Auswirkungen: Das EXTREMENESS Projekt, Küste, 87, 39–45, https://doi.org/10.18171/1.087110, 2019.
Winsor, P., Rodhe, J., and Omstedt, A.: Baltic Sea ocean climate: An analysis of 100 yr of hydrographic data with focus on the freshwater budget, Clim. Res., 18, 5–15, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr018005, 2001.
Witting, R.: Tidevatten i østerjönoch Finska, Fennia, 29, 1–84, 1911.
Wolski, T. and Wiśniewski, B.: Geographical diversity in the occurrence of extreme sea levels on the coasts of the Baltic Sea, J. Sea Res., 159, 101890, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2020.101890, 2020.
Wolski, T., Wiśniewski, B., Giza, A., Kowalewska-Kalkowska, H., Boman,
H., Grabbi-Kaiv, S., Hammarklint, T., Holfort, J., and Lydeikaitė, Ž.: Extreme sea levels at selected stations on the Baltic Sea coast,
Oceanologia, 56, 259–290, https://doi.org/10.5697/oc.56-2.259, 2014.
Woolf, D. K., Shaw, A. G. P., and Tsimplis, M. N.: The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on sea-level variability in the North Atlantic region, J. Atmos. Ocean Sci., 9, 145–167, https://doi.org/10.1080/10236730310001633803, 2003.
Wübber, C. and Krauss, W.: The Two dimensional seiches of the baltic sea, Oceanol. Acta, 2, 435–446, 1979.
Zappa, G. and Shepherd, T. G.: Storylines of Atmospheric Circulation Change
for European Regional Climate Impact Assessment, J. Climate, 30, 6561–6577,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0807.1, 2017.
Zhang, W., Harff, J., and Schneider, R.: Analysis of 50-year wind data of the southern Baltic Sea for modelling coastal morphological evolution – a case study from the Darss-Zingst Peninsula, Oceanologia, 53, 489–518,
https://doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.489, 2011a.
Zhang, W., Harff, J., Schneider, R., and Wu, C.: Development of a modelling
methodology for simulation of long-term morphological evolution of the southern Baltic coast, Ocean Dynam., 60, 1085–1114, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-010-0311-5, 2010.
Zhang, W., Harff, J., Schneider, R., Meyer, M., and Wu, C.: A Multiscale
Centennial Morphodynamic Model for the Southern Baltic Coast, J. Coast. Res., 276, 890–917, https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00055.1, 2011b.
Zhang, W., Harff, J., Schneider, R., Meyer, M., Zorita, E., and Hünicke,
B.: Holocene morphogenesis at the southern Baltic Sea: Simulation of multi-scale processes and their interactions for the Darss–Zingst peninsula, J. Mar. Syst., 129, 4–18, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.06.003, 2014.
Zhang, W., Schneider, R., Kolb, J., Teichmann, T., Dudzinska-Nowak, J., Harff, J., and Hanebuth, T. J. J.: Land–sea interaction and morphogenesis of
coastal foredunes – A modeling case study from the southern Baltic Sea coast, Coast. Eng., 99, 148–166, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2015.03.005, 2015.
Zhang, W., Schneider, R., Harff, J., Hünicke, B., and Fröhle, P.:
Modelling of Medium-Term (Decadal) Coastal Foredune Morphodynamics-Historical Hindcast and Future Scenarios of the Świna Gate Barrier Coast (Southern Baltic Sea), in: Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East, 19, edited by: Harff, J., Furmańczyk, K., and von Storch, H., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 112–140, 2017.
Zhang, Z.-H. and Leppäranta, M.: Modeling the influence of ice on sea level variations in the Baltic Sea, Geophysica, 31, 31–45, 1995.
Short summary
The study is part of the thematic Baltic Earth Assessment Reports – a series of review papers summarizing the knowledge around major Baltic Earth science topics. It concentrates on sea level dynamics and coastal erosion (its variability and change). Many of the driving processes are relevant in the Baltic Sea. Contributions vary over short distances and across timescales. Progress and research gaps are described in both understanding details in the region and in extending general concepts.
The study is part of the thematic Baltic Earth Assessment Reports – a series of review papers...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint