Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Research article 02 Feb 2021
Research article | 02 Feb 2021
Synchronized spatial shifts of Hadley and Walker circulations
Kyung-Sook Yun et al.
No articles found.
Dipayan Choudhury, Axel Timmermann, Fabian Schloesser, Malte Heinemann, and David Pollard
Clim. Past, 16, 2183–2201,Short summary
Our study is the first study to conduct transient simulations over MIS 7, using a 3-D coupled climate–ice sheet model with interactive ice sheets in both hemispheres. We find glacial inceptions to be more sensitive to orbital variations, whereas glacial terminations need the concerted action of both orbital and CO2 forcings. We highlight the issue of multiple equilibria and an instability due to stationary-wave–topography feedback that can trigger unrealistic North American ice sheet growth.
Michelle Tigchelaar, Axel Timmermann, Tobias Friedrich, Malte Heinemann, and David Pollard
The Cryosphere, 13, 2615–2631,Short summary
The Antarctic Ice Sheet has expanded and retracted often in the past, but, so far, studies have not identified which environmental driver is most important: air temperature, snowfall, ocean conditions or global sea level. In a modeling study of 400 000 years of Antarctic Ice Sheet variability we isolated different drivers and found that no single driver dominates. Air temperature and sea level are most important and combine in a synergistic way, with important implications for future change.
M. Angeles Gallego, Axel Timmermann, Tobias Friedrich, and Richard E. Zeebe
Biogeosciences, 15, 5315–5327,Short summary
It is projected that the summer–winter difference in pCO2 levels will be larger in the future. In this paper, we study the causes of this seasonal amplification of pCO2. We found that anthropogenic CO2 enhances the effect of seasonal changes in temperature (T) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) on pCO2 seasonality. This is because the oceanic pCO2 becomes more sensitive to seasonal T and DIC changes when the CO2 concentration is higher.
M. Heinemann, A. Timmermann, O. Elison Timm, F. Saito, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 10, 1567–1579,
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250,
L. Menviel, A. Timmermann, T. Friedrich, and M. H. England
Clim. Past, 10, 63–77,
S. McGregor, A. Timmermann, M. H. England, O. Elison Timm, and A. T. Wittenberg
Clim. Past, 9, 2269–2284,
K. Tachikawa, A. Timmermann, L. Vidal, C. Sonzogni, and O. E. Timm
Clim. Past Discuss.,
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825,
Related subject area
Dynamics of the Earth system: conceptsESD Ideas: The Peclet number is a cornerstone of the orbital and millennial Pleistocene variabilityTemperatures from energy balance models: the effective heat capacity mattersRelating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertaintyThe role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculationsEarth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling frameworkπ-theorem generalization of the ice-age theoryA Dynamical Systems Characterisation of Atmospheric Jet RegimesEarth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamicsESD Ideas: Why are glaciations slower than deglaciations?Fractional governing equations of transient groundwater flow in unconfined aquifers with multi-fractional dimensions in fractional timeClimate system response to stratospheric sulfate aerosols: sensitivity to altitude of aerosol layerMinimal dynamical systems model of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate dataMillennium-length precipitation reconstruction over south-eastern Asia: a pseudo-proxy approachIncluding the efficacy of land ice changes in deriving climate sensitivity from paleodataThe role of moisture transport for precipitation in the inter-annual and inter-daily fluctuations of the Arctic sea ice extensionOn the assessment of the moisture transport by the Great Plains low-level jetESD Ideas: The stochastic climate model shows that underestimated Holocene trends and variability represent two sides of the same coinCascading transitions in the climate systemThe climate of a retrograde rotating EarthDiurnal land surface energy balance partitioning estimated from the thermodynamic limit of a cold heat engineHow intermittency affects the rate at which rainfall extremes respond to changes in temperatureClimate sensitivity estimates – sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational dataOn deeper human dimensions in Earth system analysis and modellingBias correction of surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation for the EWEMBI datasetEstimating sowing and harvest dates based on the Asian summer monsoonQuantifying changes in spatial patterns of surface air temperature dynamics over several decadesSystematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) – a bottom–up, science-led approach to identifying indicatorsClimate indices for the Baltic states from principal component analysisFractal scaling analysis of groundwater dynamics in confined aquifersAn explanation for the different climate sensitivities of land and ocean surfaces based on the diurnal cycleMultivariate anomaly detection for Earth observations: a comparison of algorithms and feature extraction techniquesYoung people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissionsEmission metrics for quantifying regional climate impacts of aviationAn efficient training scheme for supermodelsDrought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operationA network-based detection scheme for the jet stream coreEvidence of cosmic recurrent and lagged millennia-scale patterns and consequent forecasts: multi-scale responses of solar activity (SA) to planetary gravitational forcing (PGF)A wavelet-based approach to detect climate change on the coherent and turbulent component of the atmospheric circulationAre there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records?Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systemsLate Quaternary temperature variability described as abrupt transitions on a 1/f noise backgroundScaling regimes and linear/nonlinear responses of last millennium climate to volcanic and solar forcingsPerspectives on contextual vulnerability in discourses of climate conflictAttribution in the presence of a long-memory climate responseResource acquisition, distribution and end-use efficiencies and the growth of industrial societyAtmospheric moisture transport: the bridge between ocean evaporation and Arctic ice meltingMetrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changesExploring objective climate classification for the Himalayan arc and adjacent regions using gridded data sourcesFraming hydropower as green energy: assessing drivers, risks and tensions in the Eastern HimalayasMechanism for potential strengthening of Atlantic overturning prior to collapse
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 63–67,Short summary
We demonstrate here that a single physical phenomenon, specifically, a naturally changing balance between intensities of temperature advection and diffusion in the viscous ice media, may influence the entire spectrum of the Pleistocene variability from orbital to millennial timescales.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1195–1208,Short summary
With the development of computer capacities, simpler models like energy balance models have not disappeared, and a stronger emphasis has been given to the concept of a hierarchy of models. The global temperature is calculated by the radiation budget through the incoming energy from the Sun and the outgoing energy from the Earth. The argument that the temperature can be calculated by a simple radiation budget is revisited, and it is found that the effective heat capacity matters.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 721–735,Short summary
Here, we assess the degree to which the idealized responses to transient forcing increase and step change forcing increase relate to warming under future scenarios. We find a possible explanation for the poor performance of transient metrics (relative to equilibrium response) as a metric of high-emission future warming in terms of their sensitivity to non-equilibrated initial conditions, and propose alternative metrics which better describe warming under high mitigation scenarios.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 563–577,Short summary
Levels of future temperature change are often used interchangeably with carbon budget allowances in climate policy, a relatively robust relationship on the timescale of this century. However, recent advances in understanding underline that continued warming after net-zero emissions have been achieved cannot be ruled out by observations of warming to date. We consider here how such behavior could be constrained and how policy can be framed in the context of these uncertainties.
Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Marc Wiedermann, Johannes A. Kassel, Tim Kittel, Jakob J. Kolb, Till Kolster, Finn Müller-Hansen, Ilona M. Otto, Kilian B. Zimmerer, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 395–413,Short summary
We present an open-source software framework for developing so-called
world–Earth modelsthat link physical, chemical and biological processes with social, economic and cultural processes to study the Earth system's future trajectories in the Anthropocene. Due to its modular structure, the software allows interdisciplinary studies of global change and sustainable development that combine stylized model components from Earth system science, climatology, economics, ecology and sociology.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 281–289,Short summary
Using the central theorem of dimensional analysis, the π theorem, we show that the relationship between the amplitude and duration of glacial cycles is governed by a property of scale invariance that does not depend on the physical nature of the underlying positive and negative feedbacks incorporated by the system. It thus turns out to be one of the most fundamental properties of the Pleistocene climate.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ESDShort summary
Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human ativities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealised computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234,Short summary
The ever-growing availability of data streams on different subsystems of the Earth brings unprecedented scientific opportunities. However, researching a data-rich world brings novel challenges. We present the concept of
Earth system data cubesto study the complex dynamics of multiple climate and ecosystem variables across space and time. Using a series of example studies, we highlight the potential of effectively considering the full multivariate nature of processes in the Earth system.
Christine Ramadhin and Chuixiang Yi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 13–16,Short summary
Here we explore ancient climate transitions from warm periods to ice ages and from ice ages to warm periods of the last 400 000 years. The changeovers from warm to ice age conditions are slower than those from ice age to warm conditions. We propose the presence of strong negative sea–ice feedbacks may be responsible for slowing the transition from warm to full ice age conditions. By improving understanding of past abrupt changes, we may have improved knowledge of future system behavior.
M. Levent Kavvas, Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and James Polsinelli
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1–12,Short summary
After deriving a fractional continuity equation, a previously-developed equation for water flux in porous media was combined with the Dupuit approximation to obtain an equation for groundwater motion in multi-fractional space in unconfined aquifers. As demonstrated in the numerical application, the orders of the fractional space and time derivatives modulate the speed of groundwater table evolution, slowing the process with the decrease in the powers of the fractional derivatives from 1.
Krishna-Pillai Sukumara-Pillai Krishnamohan, Govindasamy Bala, Long Cao, Lei Duan, and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 885–900,Short summary
We find that sulfate aerosols are more effective in cooling the climate system when they reside higher in the stratosphere. We explain this sensitivity in terms of radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. Sulfate aerosols heat the stratospheric layers, causing an increase in stratospheric water vapor content and a reduction in high clouds. These changes are larger when aerosols are prescribed near the tropopause, offsetting part of the aerosol-induced negative radiative forcing/cooling.
Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Gabriele Messori, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 555–567,Short summary
We show how the complex dynamics of the jet stream at midlatitude can be described by a simple mathematical model. We match the properties of the model to those obtained by the jet data derived from observations.
Stefanie Talento, Lea Schneider, Johannes Werner, and Jürg Luterbacher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 347–364,Short summary
Quantifying hydroclimate variability beyond the instrumental period is essential for putting fluctuations into long-term perspective and providing a validation for climate models. We evaluate, in a virtual setup, the potential for generating millennium-long summer precipitation reconstructions over south-eastern Asia. We find that performing a real-world reconstruction with the current available proxy network is indeed feasible, as virtual-world reconstructions are skilful in most areas.
Lennert B. Stap, Peter Köhler, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 333–345,Short summary
Processes causing the same global-average radiative forcing might lead to different global temperature changes. We expand the theoretical framework by which we calculate paleoclimate sensitivity with an efficacy factor. Applying the revised approach to radiative forcing caused by CO2 and land ice albedo perturbations, inferred from data of the past 800 000 years, gives a new paleo-based estimate of climate sensitivity.
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Raquel Nieto, Marta Vázquez, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 121–133,Short summary
Ice melting at the scale of inter-annual fluctuations against the trend is favoured by an increase in moisture transport in summer, autumn, and winter and a decrease in spring. On a daily basis extreme humidity transport increases the formation of ice in winter and decreases it in spring, summer, and autumn; in these three seasons it thus contributes to Arctic sea ice melting. These patterns differ sharply from that linked to decline, especially in summer when the opposite trend applies.
Iago Algarra, Jorge Eiras-Barca, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Raquel Nieto, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 107–119,Short summary
We analyse moisture transport triggered by the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ), a maximum in wind speed fields located within the first kilometre of the US Great Plain's troposphere, through the innovative Eulerian Weather Research and Forecasting Model tracer tool. Much moisture associated with this low-level jet has been found in northern regions located in a vast extension of the continent, highlighting the key role played by the GPLLJ in North America's advective transport of moisture.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279–1281,Short summary
Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity.
Mark M. Dekker, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1243–1260,Short summary
We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one system affects the background conditions of another system. Using bifurcation theory, various types of these events are considered and early warning indicators are suggested. An illustration of such an event is found in a conceptual model, coupling the North Atlantic Ocean with the equatorial Pacific. This demonstrates the possibility of events such as this in nature.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, Guido Cioni, Martin Claussen, Klaus Fraedrich, Marvin Heidkamp, Cathy Hohenegger, Diego Jimenez de la Cuesta, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Alexander Lemburg, Thorsten Mauritsen, Katharina Meraner, Niklas Röber, Hauke Schmidt, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, Alexander Winkler, Xiuhua Zhu, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1191–1215,Short summary
Model experiments show that changing the sense of Earth's rotation has relatively little impact on the globally and zonally averaged energy budgets but leads to large shifts in continental climates and patterns of precipitation. The retrograde world is greener as the desert area shrinks. Deep water formation shifts from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific with subsequent changes in ocean overturning. Over large areas of the Indian Ocean, cyanobacteria dominate over bulk phytoplankton.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1127–1140,Short summary
Turbulent fluxes represent an efficient way to transport heat and moisture from the surface into the atmosphere. Due to their inherently highly complex nature, they are commonly described by semiempirical relationships. What we show here is that these fluxes can also be predicted by viewing them as the outcome of a heat engine that operates between the warm surface and the cooler atmosphere and that works at its limit.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 955–968,Short summary
The present study aims at explaining how intermittency (i.e., the alternation of dry and rainy periods) affects the rate at which precipitation extremes increase with temperature. Using high-resolution rainfall data from 99 stations in the United States, we show that at scales beyond a few hours, intermittency causes rainfall extremes to deviate substantially from Clausius–Clapeyron. A new model is proposed to better represent and predict these changes across scales.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje Berntsen, Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 879–894,Short summary
A key question in climate science is how the global mean surface temperature responds to changes in greenhouse gases. This dependency is quantified by the climate sensitivity, which is determined by the complex feedbacks in the climate system. In this study observations of past climate change are used to estimate this sensitivity. Our estimate is consistent with values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by complex climate models but sensitive to the use of uncertain input data.
Dieter Gerten, Martin Schönfeld, and Bernhard Schauberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 849–863,Short summary
Cultural processes are underrepresented in Earth system models, although they decisively shape humanity’s planetary imprint. We set forth ideas on how Earth system analysis can be enriched by formalising aspects of religion (understood broadly as a collective belief in things held sacred). We sketch possible modelling avenues (extensions of existing Earth system models and new co-evolutionary models) and suggest research primers to explicate and quantify mental aspects of the Anthropocene.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 627–645,Short summary
The bias correction of surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation using parametric quantile mapping methods is shown to be more effective (i) at the daily than at the monthly timescale, (ii) if the spatial resolution gap between the reference data and the data to be corrected is bridged in a more suitable manner than by bilinear interpolation, and (iii) if physical upper limits are taken into account during the adjustment of either radiation component.
Camilla Mathison, Chetan Deva, Pete Falloon, and Andrew J. Challinor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 563–592,Short summary
Sowing and harvest dates are a significant source of uncertainty within crop models. South Asia is one region with a large uncertainty. We aim to provide more accurate sowing and harvest dates than currently available and that are relevant for climate impact assessments. This method reproduces the present day sowing and harvest dates for most parts of India and when applied to two future periods provides a useful way of modelling potential growing season adaptations to changes in future climate.
Dario A. Zappalà, Marcelo Barreiro, and Cristina Masoller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 383–391,Short summary
The dynamics of our climate involves multiple timescales, and while a lot of work has been devoted to quantifying variations in time-averaged variables or variations in their seasonal cycles, variations in daily variability that occur over several decades still remain poorly understood. Here we analyse daily surface air temperature and demonstrate that inter-decadal changes can be precisely identified and quantified with the Hilbert analysis tool.
Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 15–31,Short summary
The Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method applies statistical information to systematically select, transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the Earth system state. We show that due to changing climate forcing, such as anthropogenic climate change, the ad hoc assessment indicators might need to be reevaluated. Within an iterative process, this method would allow us to select scientifically consistent and societally relevant assessment indicators.
Liga Bethere, Juris Sennikovs, and Uldis Bethers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 951–962,Short summary
We define three new climate indices based on monthly mean temperature and total precipitation values that describe the main features of the climate in the Baltic states. Higher values in each index correspond to (1) less distinct seasonality and (2) warmer and (3) wetter climate. It was calculated that in the future all three indices will increase. Such indices summarize and illustrate the spatial features of the Baltic climate, and they can be used in further analysis of climate change impact.
Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and M. Levent Kavvas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 931–949,Short summary
Groundwater level fluctuations in confined aquifer wells with long observations exhibit site-specific fractal scaling behavior, and the underlying distribution exhibits either non-Gaussian characteristics, which may be fitted by the Lévy stable distribution, or Gaussian characteristics. The estimated Hurst exponent is highly dependent on the length and the specific time interval of the time series. The MF-DFA and MMA analyses showed that different levels of multifractality exist.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 849–864,Short summary
We provide an explanation why land temperatures respond more strongly to global warming than ocean temperatures, a robust finding in observations and models that has so far not been understood well. We explain it by the different ways by which ocean and land surfaces buffer the strong variation in solar radiation and demonstrate this with a simple, physically based model. Our explanation also illustrates why nighttime temperatures warm more strongly, another robust finding of global warming.
Milan Flach, Fabian Gans, Alexander Brenning, Joachim Denzler, Markus Reichstein, Erik Rodner, Sebastian Bathiany, Paul Bodesheim, Yanira Guanche, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 677–696,Short summary
Anomalies and extremes are often detected using univariate peak-over-threshold approaches in the geoscience community. The Earth system is highly multivariate. We compare eight multivariate anomaly detection algorithms and combinations of data preprocessing. We identify three anomaly detection algorithms that outperform univariate extreme event detection approaches. The workflows have the potential to reveal novelties in data. Remarks on their application to real Earth observations are provided.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, and Reto Ruedy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616,Short summary
Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian period. Keeping warming less than 1.5 °C or CO2 below 350 ppm now requires extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most extraction can be via improved agricultural and forestry practices. In contrast, continued high emissions places a burden on young people of massive technological CO2 extraction with large risks, high costs and uncertain feasibility.
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Terje Berntsen, Lisa Bock, Ulrike Burkhardt, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, and Keith P. Shine
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 547–563,
Francine J. Schevenhoven and Frank M. Selten
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 429–438,Short summary
Weather and climate models have improved steadily over time, but the models remain imperfect. Given these imperfect models, predictions might be improved by combining the models into a so-called “supermodel”. In this paper we show a new method to construct such a supermodel. The results indicate that the supermodel has superior forecast quality compared to the individual models.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Fabian Martinez, Zahra Kalantari, and Alberto Viglione
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 225–233,Short summary
There is still little understanding about the dynamics emerging from human–water interactions. As a result, policies and measures to reduce the impacts of floods and droughts often lead to unintended consequences. This paper proposes a research agenda to improve our understanding of human–water interactions, and presents an initial attempt to model the reciprocal effects between water management, droughts, and floods.
Sonja Molnos, Tarek Mamdouh, Stefan Petri, Thomas Nocke, Tino Weinkauf, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 75–89,
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 583–595,Short summary
This study, supported with detailed reconstructed solar records over last millennia, began to detect objectively patterns and recurrences in Solar activity. It is part of a process, in geosciences that began four centuries ago, when Newton removed the last doubts about the validity of the heliocentric model of the Solar System. It is intended to provide motivations to develop a more robust science of the Earth´s climate, centered not only in the geo or helio-proceses, but also in the cosmic ones
Davide Faranda and Dimitri Defrance
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 517–523,Short summary
We introduce a general technique to detect a climate change signal in the coherent and turbulent components of the atmospheric circulation. Our analysis suggests that the coherent components (atmospheric waves, long-term oscillations) will experience the greatest changes in future climate, proportionally to the greenhouse gas emission scenario considered.
Tine Nilsen, Kristoffer Rypdal, and Hege-Beate Fredriksen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 419–439,Short summary
In this article it is discussed how temperature variability on centennial timescales and longer can be described in a simplistic way. By analysing the scaling in late Holocene temperature reconstructions and longer temperature records from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores, we find that the choice of model depends heavily on the data material and timescale one chooses to emphasize. Ignoring data beyond the Holocene seems plausible when predicting temperature, but not for other purposes.
Mark S. Williamson, Sebastian Bathiany, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 313–326,Short summary
We find early warnings of abrupt changes in complex dynamical systems such as the climate where the usual early warning indicators do not work. In particular, these are systems that are periodically forced, for example by the annual cycle of solar insolation. We show these indicators are good theoretically in a general setting then apply them to a specific system, that of the Arctic sea ice, which has been conjectured to be close to such a tipping point. We do not find evidence of it.
Martin Rypdal and Kristoffer Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 281–293,Short summary
We analyse scaling in temperature signals for the late quaternary climate, and focus on the effects of regime shifting events such as the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles and the shifts between glacial and interglacial conditions. When these events are omitted from a scaling description the climate noise is consistent with a 1/f law on timescales from months to 105 years. If the events are included in the description, we obtain a model that is inherently non-stationary.
Shaun Lovejoy and Costas Varotsos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 133–150,Short summary
We compare the statistical properties of solar, volcanic and combined forcings over the range from 1 to 1000 years to see over which scale ranges they additively combine, a prediction of linear response. The main findings are (a) that the variability in the Zebiac–Cane model and GCMs are too weak at centennial and longer scales; (b) for longer than ≈ 50 years, the forcings combine subadditively; and (c) at shorter scales, strong (intermittency, e.g. volcanic) forcings are nonlinear.
U. T. Okpara, L. C. Stringer, and A. J. Dougill
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 89–102,Short summary
We draw on the premise that climate conflict reflects a continuum of conditional forces that often coalesce around the notion of vulnerability to show how vulnerability is portrayed in the discursive formation of climate conflict relations. Comparing three discourse types, we illustrate that a turn towards contextual vulnerability thinking will help advance a constructivist theory-informed climate conflict scholarship that recognises historicity, specificity and variability.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 719–730,Short summary
Human and natural forces drive climate change. If we have a model for the climate response to forcing, we can identify distinct fingerprints for each force, and their footprint in the observed global temperature can be determined by statistical analysis. This process is called attribution. This work examines the effect delays (long-range memory) in the climate response have on the magnitude of the various footprints. The magnitude of the human footprint turns out to be only weakly affected.
A. J. Jarvis, S. J. Jarvis, and C. N. Hewitt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 689–702,Short summary
This paper uses observations of global and national energy use to attempt to show that the growth in energy use over the last 160 years can be related to the distribution constraints imposed by the networks that link environmentally derived resources to points of end use. Having accounted for the distribution efficiency of this global-scale network, we speculate that the observed long-run return rate on energy of ~2.4%/yr requires regulated deployment of acquisition and end use efficiencies.
L. Gimeno, M. Vázquez, R. Nieto, and R. M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 583–589,Short summary
There appears to be a connection between two climate change indicators: an increase in evaporation over source regions and Arctic ice melting.
K. P. Shine, R. P. Allan, W. J. Collins, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 525–540,Short summary
Emissions due to human activity impact on rainfall. This impact depends on the properties of the gases or particles that are emitted. This paper uses improved understanding of relevant processes to produce a new measure, called the Global Precipitation-change Potential, which allows a direct comparison of the effect of different emissions on global-mean rainfall. Carbon dioxide, in the years following its emission, is shown to be less effective than methane emissions at causing rainfall change.
N. Forsythe, S. Blenkinsop, and H. J . Fowler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 311–326,Short summary
A three-step climate classification – input variable selection, principal components analysis and k-means clustering – was applied to a spatial domain covering the Himalayan arc and adjacent plains regions using input data from four global meteorological reanalyses. This revealed a reanalysis ensemble consensus for eight macro-climate zones. Zonal statistics revealed consistent, distinct climatologies. This approach has implications for resource assessments and data set bias characterisations.
R. Ahlers, J. Budds, D. Joshi, V. Merme, and M. Zwarteveen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 195–204,Short summary
Ambitious hydropower plans in the Eastern Himalayas prominently involve the private finance sector. We question the framing of hydropower as green energy, interrogate its links with climate change, and examine its potential for investment and capital accumulation and show a number of serious contradictions. Impacts cannot be simply predicted, controlled or mitigated. More focus on political economic drivers and geo-ecological uncertainties infused with localized understandings is sorely needed.
D. Ehlert and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 383–397,
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Changes in the Hadley and Walker cells cause major climate disruptions across our planet. What has been overlooked so far is the question of whether these two circulations can shift their positions in a synchronized manner. We here show the synchronized spatial shifts between Walker and Hadley cells and further highlight a novel aspect of how tropical sea surface temperature anomalies can couple these two circulations. The re-positioning has important implications for extratropical rainfall.
Changes in the Hadley and Walker cells cause major climate disruptions across our planet. What...