Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Levermann, Anders; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Albrecht, Torsten; Goelzer, Heiko; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Greve, Ralf; Huybrechts, Philippe; Jordan, Jim; Leguy, Gunter; Martin, Daniel; Morlighem, Mathieu; Pattyn, Frank; Pollard, David; Quiquet, Aurelien; Rodehacke, Christian; Seroussi, Helene; Sutter, Johannes; Zhang, Tong; Van Breedam, Jonas; Calov, Reinhard; DeConto, Robert; Dumas, Christophe; Garbe, Julius; Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Humbert, Angelika; Kleiner, Thomas; Lipscomb, William H.; Meinshausen, Malte; Ng, Esmond; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F.; Saito, Fuyuki; Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Sun, Sainan; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020

Articles | Volume 11, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 11, issue 1

Research article

|

14 Feb 2020

Research article |

| 14 Feb 2020

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal

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Final revised paper (published on 14 Feb 2020)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 23 May 2019)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'A useful tool, in need of a more careful presentation and analysis', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 Jul 2019
- SC1: 'Will do', Anders Levermann, 04 Jul 2019
- AC1: 'Final response', Anders Levermann, 14 Oct 2019
SC2: 'Comments on ESSD 10.5194/esd-2019-23 by Levermann et al.', Daniel Gilford, 10 Jul 2019
- SC3: 'Thanks!', Anders Levermann, 10 Jul 2019
RC2: 'Interactive comment on “Projecting Antarctica’s contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice-shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)”', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 Jul 2019
- SC4: 'Thanks, we will be able to address your comments', Anders Levermann, 12 Jul 2019
- AC2: 'Final response', Anders Levermann, 14 Oct 2019

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (22 Oct 2019) by Yun Liu

AR by Anders Levermann on behalf of the Authors (22 Oct 2019) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (24 Oct 2019) by Yun Liu

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (09 Nov 2019)

RR by Daniel Gilford (25 Nov 2019)

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (25 Nov 2019) by Yun Liu

AR by Anders Levermann on behalf of the Authors (26 Nov 2019) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (04 Dec 2019) by Yun Liu

AR by Anders Levermann on behalf of the Authors (05 Dec 2019) Manuscript

Post-review adjustments

AA: Author's adjustment | EA: Editor approval

AA by Anders Levermann on behalf of the Authors (09 Jan 2020) Author's adjustment Manuscript

EA: Adjustments approved (09 Jan 2020) by Yun Liu

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Short summary

We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.