Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Feb 2020
Research article |
| 14 Feb 2020
| 14 Feb 2020
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
Anders Levermann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
LDEO, Columbia University, New York, USA
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Ricarda Winkelmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Torsten Albrecht
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
Heiko Goelzer
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
Nicholas R. Golledge
Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington,
Wellington 6140, New Zealand
GNS Science, Avalon, Lower Hutt 5011, New Zealand
Ralf Greve
Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo
060-0819, Japan
Philippe Huybrechts
Earth System Science & Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Jim Jordan
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of
Northumbria, Newcastle, UK
Gunter Leguy
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Daniel Martin
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
Mathieu Morlighem
Department of Earth System Science, University of California
Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
Frank Pattyn
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
David Pollard
Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
Aurelien Quiquet
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
CEA/CNRS-INSU/UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Christian Rodehacke
Danish Meteorological Institute, Arctic and Climate, Copenhagen,
Denmark
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Helene Seroussi
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, USA
Johannes Sutter
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Tong Zhang
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,
New Mexico 87545, USA
Jonas Van Breedam
Earth System Science & Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Reinhard Calov
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
Robert DeConto
Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst,
Massachusetts, USA
Christophe Dumas
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
CEA/CNRS-INSU/UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Julius Garbe
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of
Northumbria, Newcastle, UK
Matthew J. Hoffman
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,
New Mexico 87545, USA
Angelika Humbert
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Department of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Thomas Kleiner
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
William H. Lipscomb
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Malte Meinshausen
Climate & Energy College, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
Esmond Ng
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
Sophie M. J. Nowicki
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Mauro Perego
Center for Computing Research, Sandia National Laboratories,
Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185, USA
Stephen F. Price
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,
New Mexico 87545, USA
Fuyuki Saito
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama,
Japan
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, USA
Sainan Sun
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Geosciences, Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the
Netherlands
Data sets
LARMIP A. Levermann http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~anders/larmip
Model code and software
LARMIP 2019 A. Levermann https://github.com/ALevermann/Larmip2019
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf...
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