Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020

Research article 14 Feb 2020

Research article | 14 Feb 2020

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Anders Levermann et al.

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Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
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