Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Feb 2020
Research article |
| 14 Feb 2020
| 14 Feb 2020
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
Anders Levermann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
LDEO, Columbia University, New York, USA
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Ricarda Winkelmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Torsten Albrecht
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
Heiko Goelzer
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
Nicholas R. Golledge
Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington,
Wellington 6140, New Zealand
GNS Science, Avalon, Lower Hutt 5011, New Zealand
Ralf Greve
Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo
060-0819, Japan
Philippe Huybrechts
Earth System Science & Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Jim Jordan
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of
Northumbria, Newcastle, UK
Gunter Leguy
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Daniel Martin
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
Mathieu Morlighem
Department of Earth System Science, University of California
Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
Frank Pattyn
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
David Pollard
Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
Aurelien Quiquet
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
CEA/CNRS-INSU/UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Christian Rodehacke
Danish Meteorological Institute, Arctic and Climate, Copenhagen,
Denmark
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Helene Seroussi
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, USA
Johannes Sutter
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Tong Zhang
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,
New Mexico 87545, USA
Jonas Van Breedam
Earth System Science & Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit
Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Reinhard Calov
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
Robert DeConto
Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst,
Massachusetts, USA
Christophe Dumas
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,
CEA/CNRS-INSU/UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Julius Garbe
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of
Northumbria, Newcastle, UK
Matthew J. Hoffman
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,
New Mexico 87545, USA
Angelika Humbert
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Department of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Thomas Kleiner
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
William H. Lipscomb
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Malte Meinshausen
Climate & Energy College, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany
Esmond Ng
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
Sophie M. J. Nowicki
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Mauro Perego
Center for Computing Research, Sandia National Laboratories,
Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185, USA
Stephen F. Price
Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,
New Mexico 87545, USA
Fuyuki Saito
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama,
Japan
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
Pasadena, CA, USA
Sainan Sun
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Brussels, Belgium
Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht
University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Geosciences, Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the
Netherlands
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Cited
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- A Semi-Empirical Framework for ice sheet response analysis under Oceanic forcing in Antarctica and Greenland X. Luo & T. Lin 10.1007/s00382-022-06317-x
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- Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change C. Stokes et al. 10.1038/s41586-022-04946-0
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- Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP) S. Sun et al. 10.1017/jog.2020.67
- Global Drivers on Southern Ocean Ecosystems: Changing Physical Environments and Anthropogenic Pressures in an Earth System S. Morley et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.547188
- Shear-margin melting causes stronger transient ice discharge than ice-stream melting in idealized simulations J. Feldmann et al. 10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022
- Mass Balances of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets Monitored from Space I. Otosaka et al. 10.1007/s10712-023-09795-8
- Performance portable ice-sheet modeling with MALI J. Watkins et al. 10.1177/10943420231183688
- The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet C. Wirths et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4435-2024
- A Gaussian process emulator for simulating ice sheet–climate interactions on a multi-million-year timescale: CLISEMv1.0 J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021
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- ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model W. Lipscomb et al. 10.5194/tc-15-633-2021
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- Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry M. Zeitz et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020
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- Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023
- ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
- Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica From Satellite Gravimetry T. Diener et al. 10.3389/feart.2021.741789
- Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model G. Leguy et al. 10.5194/tc-15-3229-2021
- Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier B. Reed et al. 10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024
- Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years J. Jordan et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2
- Evaluating Knowledge Gaps in Sea‐Level Rise Assessments From the United States A. Garner et al. 10.1029/2022EF003187
- Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica E. Hill et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021
- The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century A. Quiquet & C. Dumas 10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021
- Spatial and temporal variability of 21st century sea level changes J. Roffman et al. 10.1093/gji/ggad170
- Ocean-induced melt volume directly paces ice loss from Pine Island Glacier I. Joughin et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abi5738
- A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners R. van de Wal et al. 10.1029/2022EF002751
- Range of 21st century ice mass changes in the Filchner-Ronne region of Antarctica A. Johnson et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.10
- Economic impacts of melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet S. Dietz & F. Koninx 10.1038/s41467-022-33406-6
- Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 A. Alevropoulos-Borrill et al. 10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020
- Ice Shelf Basal Melt Rates in the Amundsen Sea at the End of the 21st Century N. Jourdain et al. 10.1029/2022GL100629
- The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model R. Reese et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020
- Process-based estimate of global-mean sea-level changes in the Common Era N. Gangadharan et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022
- Distinguishing the impacts of ozone and ozone-depleting substances on the recent increase in Antarctic surface mass balance R. Chemke et al. 10.5194/tc-14-4135-2020
- Recent acceleration of Denman Glacier (1972–2017), East Antarctica, driven by grounding line retreat and changes in ice tongue configuration B. Miles et al. 10.5194/tc-15-663-2021
- An Extreme High Temperature Event in Coastal East Antarctica Associated With an Atmospheric River and Record Summer Downslope Winds J. Turner et al. 10.1029/2021GL097108
- Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change S. Bevan et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.57
- Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) M. Berdahl et al. 10.5194/tc-17-1513-2023
- Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application F. Turner et al. 10.1029/2023EF003550
- The transferability of adjoint inversion products between different ice flow models J. Barnes et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1975-2021
- The evolution of 21st century sea-level projections from IPCC AR5 to AR6 and beyond A. Slangen et al. 10.1017/cft.2022.8
- Resolving and Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in Earth System Models H. Hewitt et al. 10.1007/s40641-020-00164-w
- Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models F. Boberg et al. 10.5194/tc-16-17-2022
- The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change R. Kopp et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023
- The DOE E3SM v1.2 Cryosphere Configuration: Description and Simulated Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Basal Melting D. Comeau et al. 10.1029/2021MS002468
- Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario P. Mathiot & N. Jourdain 10.5194/os-19-1595-2023
- Timescales of outlet-glacier flow with negligible basal friction: theory, observations and modeling J. Feldmann & A. Levermann 10.5194/tc-17-327-2023
- Predicting the steady-state isochronal stratigraphy of ice shelves using observations and modeling V. Višnjević et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4763-2022
- A Variational LSTM Emulator of Sea Level Contribution From the Antarctic Ice Sheet P. Van Katwyk et al. 10.1029/2023MS003899
- Decadal-scale onset and termination of Antarctic ice-mass loss during the last deglaciation M. Weber et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-27053-6
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Latest update: 22 Nov 2024
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf...
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