Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
Research article
09 May 2018
Research article |  | 09 May 2018

Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

Sebastian Ostberg, Jacob Schewe, Katelin Childers, and Katja Frieler

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Cited articles

Blanc, É.: Statistical emulators of maize, rice, soybean and wheat yields from global gridded crop models, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 236, 145–161,, 2017. a
Bondeau, A., Smith, P. C., Zaehle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., Gerten, D., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Reichstein, M., and Smith, B.: Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance, Global Change Biol., 13, 679–706,, 2007. a
Brown, M. E. and Kshirsagar, V.: Weather and international price shocks on food prices in the developing world, Global Environ. Change, 35, 31–40,, 2015. a
Challinor, A. J. and Wheeler, T. R.: Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 148, 343–356,, 2008. a
Darwin, R. and Kennedy, D.: Economic effects of CO2 fertilization of crops: transforming changes in yield into changes in supply, Environ. Model. Assess., 5, 157–168,, 2000. a
Short summary
It has been shown that regional temperature and precipitation changes in future climate change scenarios often scale quasi-linearly with global mean temperature change (∆GMT). We show that an important consequence of these physical climate changes, namely changes in agricultural crop yields, can also be described in terms of ∆GMT to a large extent. This makes it possible to efficiently estimate future crop yield changes for different climate change scenarios without need for complex models.
Final-revised paper