Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-181-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-181-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
Review
 | 
10 Feb 2026
Review |  | 10 Feb 2026

A global perspective on past and future change in regional seasonal cycle shape

Eva Holtanová, Jan Koláček, and Lukas Brunner

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Latest update: 17 Oct 2026
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Short summary
We introduce Functional Data Analysis (FDA) as a new approach to diagnose changes in the temperature seasonal cycle. FDA allows the analysis without needing any prior assumptions about the cycle shape. We evaluate past and future changes based on two reanalyses and five CMIP6 models. We discuss regions of robust changes with datasets’ agreement, e.g., a delayed maximum in the south and east of Europe, while highlighting areas of larger dataset differences, mainly in polar and equatorial regions.
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