Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1435-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1435-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Oct 2026
Research article |
| 02 Oct 2026
| 02 Oct 2026
Decadal predictions of wind, solar and compound power indicators to support the European renewable energy sector
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Carlos Delgado-Torres
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Matías Olmo
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Sushovan Ghosh
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Verónica Torralba
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Albert Soret
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
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Diego A. Campos, Katherine Grayson, Ramiro I. Saurral, Sebastian Beyer, Amal John, Matías Olmo, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1153–1171, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1153-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1153-2026, 2026
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Human-caused warming intensified the late October 2024 Valencia extreme precipitation event. Using storyline simulations, we compared today’s climate with a cooler past climate while keeping the synoptic weather pattern the same. Warmer air and sea temperatures increased moisture, instability, and rainfall, showing that climate change amplified an already extreme storm.
Aude Carréric, Pablo Ortega, Roberto Bilbao, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Vladimir Lapin, Ferran Lopez-Marti, Markus Donat, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 717–737, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-717-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-717-2026, 2026
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The paper assesses the impact of horizontal resolution of the EC-Earth climate model on its ability to predict El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The high-resolution simulations show better forecast skill linked to improved simulation of ENSO-related variability and ENSO teleconnections with the equatorial Atlantic. However, the remaining poor skill in the western Pacific highlights the importance of better understanding ENSO simulation errors and mean state biases to improve forecasts.
Diego Campos, Matías Olmo, Pep Cos, Margarida Samsó, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2830, 2026
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Human influence on the Western Mediterranean climate was investigated using observations and climate model simulations covering the past seven decades. The results show a clear human fingerprint on regional warming driven mainly by greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, rainfall changes remain highly uncertain and are dominated by natural variability, without a clear human signal. These findings improve the understanding of how climate change is affecting one of Europe’s most vulnerable regions.
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Jenni Kontkanen, Irina Sandu, Mario Acosta, Mohammed Hussam Al Turjmam, Ivan Alsina-Ferrer, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Costanza Anerdi, Leo Arriola, Marvin Axness, Marc Batlle Martín, Peter Bauer, Tobias Becker, Daniel Beltrán, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Sebastien Cabaniols, Silvia Caprioli, Miguel Castrillo, Aparna Chandrasekar, Suvarchal Cheedela, Victor Correal, Emanuele Danovaro, Paolo Davini, Jussi Enkovaara, Claudia Frauen, Barbara Früh, Aina Gaya Àvila, Paolo Ghinassi, Rohit Ghosh, Supriyo Ghosh, Iker González, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Ioan Hadade, Christopher Haine, Carl Hartick, Utz-Uwe Haus, Shane Hearne, Heikki Järvinen, Bernat Jiménez, Amal John, Marlin Juchem, Thomas Jung, Jessica Kegel, Matthias Kelbling, Kai Keller, Bruno Kinoshita, Theresa Kiszler, Daniel Klocke, Lukas Kluft, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Joonas Kolstela, Luis Kornblueh, Sergey Kosukhin, Aleksander Lacima-Nadolnik, Jeisson Javier Leal Rojas, Jonni Lehtiranta, Tuomas Lunttila, Anna Luoma, Pekka Manninen, Alexey Medvedev, Sebastian Milinski, Ali Mohammed, Sebastian Müller, Devaraju Naryanappa, Natalia Nazarova, Sami Niemelä, Bimochan Niraula, Henrik Nortamo, Aleksi Nummelin, Matteo Nurisso, Pablo Ortega, Stella Paronuzzi, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Charles Pelletier, Carlos Peña, Suraj Polade, Himansu Kesari Pradhan, Rommel Quintanilla, Tiago Quintino, Thomas Rackow, Jouni Räisänen, Maqsood Mubarak Rajput, René Redler, Balthasar Reuter, Nuno Rocha Monteiro, Francesc Roura-Adserias, Silva Ruppert, Susan Sayed, Reiner Schnur, Tanvi Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Outi Sievi-Korte, Albert Soret, Christian Steger, Bjorn Stevens, Jan Streffing, Jaleena Sunny, Luiggi Tenorio, Stephan Thober, Ulf Tigerstedt, Oriol Tinto, Juha Tonttila, Heikki Tuomenvirta, Lauri Tuppi, Ginka Van Thielen, Emanuele Vitali, Jost von Hardenberg, Ingo Wagner, Nils Wedi, Jan Wehner, Sven Willner, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, Florian Ziemen, and Janos Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2821–2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2821-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2821-2026, 2026
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The Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT) pioneers the operationalisation of global climate projections. It produces global simulations with local granularity for adaptation decision-making. Applications are embedded to generate tailored indicators. A unified workflow orchestrates all components in several supercomputers. Data management ensures consistency and streaming enables real-time use. It is a complementary innovation to initiatives like CMIP, CORDEX, and climate services.
Carlos Delgado-Torres, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Verónica Torralba, Roberto Bilbao, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó-Cabré, Albert Soret, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-41-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-41-2026, 2026
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Many decisions require consistent climate information from seasonal to multi-year timescales. We assess seamless forecasts created by constraining seasonal and decadal predictions and compare them with initialised multi-annual forecasts. Multi-annual predictions provide the highest skill, but constrained forecasts still perform well and offer a low-cost, regularly updatable solution for delivering coherent climate information.
Gerard Marcet-Carbonell, Markus G. Donat, and Carlos Delgado-Torres
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6277, 2026
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The causes behind changes in the circulation of air in the northern hemisphere during summer are currently not well understood. These changes have been associated with accelerated warming and extreme weather events. In this work we explore the effect of natural and human-caused emissions and find evidence suggesting that the changes are related to changes in aerosol emissions. We find no evidence of these changes being related to greenhouse-gas emissions or ocean variability.
Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Margarida Samso Cabre, and Markus G. Donat
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2225–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025, 2025
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We investigate multi-year predictability of hot, dry and hot-dry compound events, using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 decadal hindcast experiments, focusing on the forecast years 2–5. We find that hot-dry compound and hot extremes are skillfully predicted in many regions, but lower skill is found for dry extremes. The skill is largely due to long-term trends in response to external forcing, while added skill from initialisation is limited to a few regions.
Pep Cos, Matias Olmo, Diego Campos, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, Lluís Palma, Ángel G. Muñoz, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 609–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-609-2025, 2025
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This work presents the identification of Saharan warm-air intrusions in the western Mediterranean, which are the displacement of air masses formed over the Sahara toward the west of the Mediterranean region. We focus on the recent past and obtain a catalogue of intrusion days. The results show the existence of different types of intrusions, important impacts on extremely high temperatures in the Mediterranean and Europe, and the dynamic mechanisms that can cause the onset of these events.
Aleksander Lacima, Hervé Petetin, Albert Soret, Dene Bowdalo, Oriol Jorba, Zhaoyue Chen, Raúl F. Méndez Turrubiates, Hicham Achebak, Joan Ballester, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2689–2718, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2689-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2689-2023, 2023
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Understanding how air pollution varies across space and time is of key importance for the safeguarding of human health. This work arose in the context of the project EARLY-ADAPT, for which the Barcelona Supercomputing Center developed an air pollution database covering all of Europe. Through different statistical methods, we compared two global pollution models against measurements from ground stations and found significant discrepancies between the observed and the modeled surface pollution.
Alvaro Criado, Jan Mateu Armengol, Hervé Petetin, Daniel Rodriguez-Rey, Jaime Benavides, Marc Guevara, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Albert Soret, and Oriol Jorba
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2193–2213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2193-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2193-2023, 2023
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This work aims to derive and evaluate a general statistical post-processing tool specifically designed for the street scale that can be applied to any urban air quality system. Our data fusion methodology corrects NO2 fields based on continuous hourly observations and experimental campaigns. This study enables us to obtain exceedance probability maps of air quality standards. In 2019, 13 % of the Barcelona area had a 70 % or higher probability of exceeding the annual legal NO2 limit of 40 µg/m3.
Hervé Petetin, Marc Guevara, Steven Compernolle, Dene Bowdalo, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Santiago Enciso, Oriol Jorba, Franco Lopez, Albert Soret, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3905–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3905-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3905-2023, 2023
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This study analyses the potential of the TROPOMI space sensor for monitoring the variability of NO2 pollution over the Iberian Peninsula. A reduction of NO2 levels is observed during the weekend and in summer, especially over most urbanized areas, in agreement with surface observations. An enhancement of NO2 is found during summer with TROPOMI over croplands, potentially related to natural soil NO emissions, which illustrates the outstanding value of TROPOMI for complementing surface networks.
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Pablo Ortega, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Margarida Samsó, and Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022, 2022
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Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present a novel approach to reduce such uncertainty by constraining decadal-scale variability in the projections using observations. The constrained ensembles show significant added value over the unconstrained ensemble in predicting global climate 2 decades ahead. We also show the applicability of regional constraints for attributing predictability to certain ocean regions.
Hervé Petetin, Dene Bowdalo, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Marc Guevara, Oriol Jorba, Jan Mateu Armengol, Margarida Samso Cabre, Kim Serradell, Albert Soret, and Carlos Pérez Garcia-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 11603–11630, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11603-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-11603-2022, 2022
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This study investigates the extent to which ozone forecasts provided by the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) can be improved using surface observations and state-of-the-art statistical methods. Through a case study over the Iberian Peninsula in 2018–2019, it unambiguously demonstrates the value of these methods for improving the raw CAMS O3 forecasts while at the same time highlighting the complexity of improving the detection of the highest O3 concentrations.
Núria Pérez-Zanón, Louis-Philippe Caron, Silvia Terzago, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Llorenç Lledó, Nicolau Manubens, Emmanuel Roulin, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Lauriane Batté, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Susana Corti, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Marta Domínguez, Federico Fabiano, Ignazio Giuntoli, Jost von Hardenberg, Eroteida Sánchez-García, Verónica Torralba, and Deborah Verfaillie
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6115–6142, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6115-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6115-2022, 2022
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CSTools (short for Climate Service Tools) is an R package that contains process-based methods for climate forecast calibration, bias correction, statistical and stochastic downscaling, optimal forecast combination, and multivariate verification, as well as basic and advanced tools to obtain tailored products. In addition to describing the structure and methods in the package, we also present three use cases to illustrate the seasonal climate forecast post-processing for specific purposes.
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Short summary
Wind and solar power depend on weather conditions that can vary over the next few years. This study assesses whether climate forecasts for the next three years can help anticipate renewable energy production across Europe. Solar energy is generally more predictable than wind, with skill varying by season and region. We also assess compound energy droughts, when low wind and solar resources occur simultaneously, showing where near-term climate information can support energy planning.
Wind and solar power depend on weather conditions that can vary over the next few years. This...
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